Search found 199 matches

by Alchemist
Tue Aug 01, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?
Replies: 90
Views: 9037

Re: Has the "bond bubble" caused you to change your allocation?

I am at 90/10 so anything that bonds do will not have a huge impact on my current portfolio. With that said, my bond component is entirely in the TSP G Fund so my principle is guaranteed, and rising rates would be a good thing for the money that is in there. If I did not have access to the G Fund, I...
by Alchemist
Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which Credit Card Companies Do You Like?
Replies: 57
Views: 4075

Re: Which Credit Card Companies Do You Like?

I have been very happy with Amex since getting their Platinum card in 2013. It is now my primary card, with my only other card being a USAA cash back Visa (for the increasingly rare occasion someone doesn't take Amex). However, the Amex Platinum is not for everyone but as a frequent traveler for bot...
by Alchemist
Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If you were under 30 and had $3000 to invest, what would you do?
Replies: 14
Views: 1177

Re: If you were under 30 and had $3000 to invest, what would you do?

Like the others said, VTSMX Vanguard Total Stock Index fund. When you get over $10k, upgrade to admiral shares.
by Alchemist
Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle is pro-SCV!
Replies: 36
Views: 4018

Re: Bogle is pro-SCV!

Given the lack of a published transcript, and Merriman's history of hyperbole, exaggerations, and potential mis-representations (see his articles on VTSAX for example...) I give little credence to his characterization of the discussion. I know he is well thought of by many Bogleheads and I do not me...
by Alchemist
Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now time to move into international stocks?
Replies: 57
Views: 6581

Re: Is now time to move into international stocks?

Do not market time, it is a losers game. You should determine what international allocation you want over the next few decades and then stay the course.

I am 100% U.S. and have no plans on changing.
by Alchemist
Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?
Replies: 101
Views: 7019

Re: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?

I am at 90/10 but I do not think that is appropriate for everyone. I don't even think it is likely to be appropriate for me when I am closer to retirement. The reason I hold it is that the entire idea is to have a larger portfolio when I retire than if I had a lower risk AA. But I balance the increa...
by Alchemist
Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?
Replies: 166
Views: 17832

Re: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?

I'm just standing here, doing nothing. Well nothing different anyway. Continuing my normal monthly contributions to investment accounts as I always have.
by Alchemist
Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J. Clements' Perspective: Past Perfect, Future Tense
Replies: 21
Views: 2735

Re: J. Clements' Perspective: Past Perfect, Future Tense

I have two issues with the premise of the article. The first is the assumption that P/E will collapse to a 1960's level. Far fewer people, as a percentage of the population, were invested in stocks back then. With the advent of the 401(k) and easy to use brokerage services the number of people inves...
by Alchemist
Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent absence of advantage for the "classic factors strategy"
Replies: 17
Views: 1368

Re: Recent absence of advantage for the "classic factors strategy"

P.S. To my eyeball, the key period is 2000-2002. During that period of time, a number of asset classes went up while the stock market was going down, REITs and small value in particular. This period of time "made" the reputation of these asset classes as diversifiers, but the feat has not...
by Alchemist
Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth TSP - Worth it?
Replies: 15
Views: 1378

Re: Roth TSP - Worth it?

While I am generally a fan of the Roth TSP, in your case it probably is not the best route. Rolling over your old 401(k) to a Vanguard Roth IRA is what I would recommend. The Trad/Roth mixing rules of the TSP do not make much sense, and I am grateful that the Roth TSP option was available when I sta...
by Alchemist
Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads: you should be buying 10-year old cars
Replies: 173
Views: 13324

Re: Bogleheads: you should be buying 10-year old cars

This is absurd, about "no one advocating buying a..." luxury car, if one is referring to one's self, and one has the money and preference for it. Here we go *again* with the judgmental attitude about decisions that others make. IF someone can afford it (medical/housing/retirement/etc., is...
by Alchemist
Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you share some of your financial goals?
Replies: 69
Views: 7805

Re: Can you share some of your financial goals?

Maybe not low when taking into account all those other things. I guess you are keeping your finances separate from your husband in this scenario? Oh no not at all. But we just got married a month ago so we are still intertwining our financial lives (he is a Japanese citizen with most his assets in ...
by Alchemist
Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you share some of your financial goals?
Replies: 69
Views: 7805

Re: Can you share some of your financial goals?

1. Have a net worth of $1 million by the time I retire from the military at age 42 (I'm currently 30 with 8 years of active duty service as an officer) It will allow me and my husband to have the flexibility to do whatever we want for the next phase of our life. We have no interest in actual early ...
by Alchemist
Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Jack Bogle have a conundrum on his hands?
Replies: 63
Views: 4383

Re: Does Jack Bogle have a conflict of interest?

Some Boglehead's seem to have a very high opinion of Merriman but anything I have see of him is, well, someone else already said it better:

triceratop wrote:None of this means that Jack Bogle has a conflict of interest which seems highly dubious to me, and almost offensive.


Emphasis mine.
by Alchemist
Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you share some of your financial goals?
Replies: 69
Views: 7805

Re: Can you share some of your financial goals?

1. Have a net worth of $1 million by the time I retire from the military at age 42 (I'm currently 30 with 8 years of active duty service as an officer) It will allow me and my husband to have the flexibility to do whatever we want for the next phase of our life. We have no interest in actual early r...
by Alchemist
Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Reason to Stay With USAA?
Replies: 21
Views: 1641

Re: Any Reason to Stay With USAA?

I love USAA for banking and insurance. For investments? It is important to keep in mind that their investment service is actually run by.....Fidelity. So you can buy/sell Fidelity funds/etfs cost free. I have my Roth IRA at USAA but it is entirely invested in a Fidelity fund (FUSVX). I may one day ...
by Alchemist
Tue Jun 27, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Reason to Stay With USAA?
Replies: 21
Views: 1641

Re: Any Reason to Stay With USAA?

I love USAA for banking and insurance. For investments? It is important to keep in mind that their investment service is actually run by.....Fidelity. So you can buy/sell Fidelity funds/etfs cost free. I have my Roth IRA at USAA but it is entirely invested in a Fidelity fund (FUSVX). I may one day m...
by Alchemist
Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium
Replies: 47
Views: 5208

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium

I think "factor crowding" and just the fact that the big boys (ie institutional investors, hedge funds) aren't going to let any factor "premium" exist for public consumption explains why these factors have not been obtainable for the common investor. DFA came about in the early ...
by Alchemist
Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k
Replies: 58
Views: 3663

Re: Roth 401k > Traditional 401k

I think coming up with a general recommendation for Roth vs Traditional is a bit of a fools errand. The tax code is so complex that each persons individual circumstance may dictate very different recommendations. With that said, I think a Roth has one significant advantage over Traditional that has ...
by Alchemist
Sun Jun 11, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 13059

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

I for one am with Bogle on this. I am a U.S. only investor and the main reason for that has not yet been mentioned in this thread. The world is exposed to U.S. black swans, infact some parts of the world suffer worse than the U.S. itself when there is an American black swan event like the Financial ...
by Alchemist
Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: USAA's New (Irritating) Security Protocol
Replies: 19
Views: 1718

Re: USAA's New (Irritating) Security Protocol

Also as a reminder to everyone, if you do not adhere to the cyber security policies of your financial institutions then you are not covered for losses in the event a criminal gains access to your accounts. That goes for banks, investment firms, credit cards, ect Not sure this an acurate statement. ...
by Alchemist
Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: USAA's New (Irritating) Security Protocol
Replies: 19
Views: 1718

Re: USAA's New (Irritating) Security Protocol

I would be upset if they didn't use 2FA. Infact I'm very thankful USAA goes a step further and offers options beyond SMS 2FA which has known vulnerabilities. I get my one time codes via an app on my phone that generates new ones every 30 seconds. You do realize the bad guys are getting better at cra...
by Alchemist
Sun May 28, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Second Thoughts on Whole Life Insurance <1 Year into it - Advice???
Replies: 52
Views: 3711

Re: Second Thoughts on Whole Life Insurance <1 Year into it - Advice???

Here is what you should do: Step 1: Fire your "Financial Advisor"....they aren't one if they recommended this. As Nate79 has pointed out, they are infact just as slimy salesman trying to rip you off. Step 2: Cancel the Whole Life policy IMMEDIATELY. The fact that you will have paid thousan...
by Alchemist
Mon May 22, 2017 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To auto loan or not to auto loan?
Replies: 23
Views: 1633

Re: To auto loan or not to auto loan?

Cash, hands down. Using debt to buy consumer goods changes the psychology around your decision making. A car payment 'feels' less than just writing a $45k check. It makes the friction of purchasing smaller by making the upfront psychological pain less (this also makes the sales person's job of up-se...
by Alchemist
Tue May 16, 2017 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting: Will lowered contextual risk of factors eventually eliminate the risk premium?
Replies: 8
Views: 798

Re: Tilting: Will lowered contextual risk of factors eventually eliminate the risk premium?

I think the more important question, and the real risk in this discussion, is what if the SCV premium never shows up in your investing lifetime? Then you are left with far less money (smaller equity position, higher costs, underperformance) at the time when you need it. That is the real risk worth c...
by Alchemist
Tue May 16, 2017 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NBC WB interview on Jack Bogle
Replies: 13
Views: 1699

Re: NBC WB interview on Jack Bogle

I think Warren Buffet just happens to like the S&P 500 because he knows exactly what is in it, vice a number of Total Market indices. I kind of agree, I've mentioned before that I just split the difference. My taxable account owns Total Market via VTSAX as it is more tax efficient. My Roth TSP/I...
by Alchemist
Tue May 16, 2017 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars: Expense or Asset?
Replies: 84
Views: 5434

Re: Cars: Expense or Asset?

I don't think there is a 'right' or wrong way to answer the question from a personal finance perspective. Obviously from an accuracy of terms perspective, yes, obviously a car is an asset just like the Mac Book pro I'm typing this on is an asset. How you calculate that in your personal budgeting? Me...
by Alchemist
Thu May 04, 2017 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5942

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YG-Q3jQuhPY Jack Bogle is simply incorrect here. Why ignore DFA's Small & Value US fund, in existence since 1993? Higher return, higher risk, higher Sharpe ratio. And, lower correlation with US Mkt (good for tilting!). DFSVX basically had two stellar years, 2002-...
by Alchemist
Sun Apr 30, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another "Why Bonds?" / Buffett 90/10 thread..
Replies: 66
Views: 8506

Re: Another "Why Bonds?" / Buffett 90/10 thread..

To help clear up some of the misgivings or confusion I think it is important to point out that there are two separate ways of viewing the role of bonds in a portfolio. The seemingly more prominent way of using/viewing bonds is to control overall volatility of a portfolio and for re-balancing. By add...
by Alchemist
Sat Apr 29, 2017 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5942

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

That's a future paper and so no idea on whether it addresses multi-factor funds and whether they go in the smart beta or factor tilt categories (likely factor tilt I'd guess), but the common ground is probably that all these strategies have a capacity limit and could get crowded. This is the key fa...
by Alchemist
Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nice short piece on the math of factor investing
Replies: 202
Views: 12141

Re: nice short piece on the math of factor investing

Firechief IMO what you and most are missing (because not thinking holistically) is that by tilting to factors with higher expected returns and low correlation you can hold less market beta (equity) risk overall, lowering your AA to stocks while then increasing it to safe bonds. And that clearly inc...
by Alchemist
Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nice short piece on the math of factor investing
Replies: 202
Views: 12141

Re: nice short piece on the math of factor investing

Alchemist, Not sure whether I'm conflating or not. But when an individual shifts their view of diversification from number of stocks to number of separate and independent sources of return, then he is indeed more diversified. The TSM investor may have 5000 stocks, but net exposure to only one facto...
by Alchemist
Sun Apr 02, 2017 2:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Saving 50% of salary; what does it really mean?
Replies: 142
Views: 11746

Re: Saving 50% of salary; what does it really mean?

I had one year that I saved 50% of my income. Very straight forward in how to get there, I spent most of the year deployed to a combat zone so my taxable income (out of a little over $100k that year, thanks to combat pay/incentives/ect) was less than $20,000. I was not home to spend anything except ...
by Alchemist
Sun Apr 02, 2017 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nice short piece on the math of factor investing
Replies: 202
Views: 12141

Re: nice short piece on the math of factor investing

Rkhusky, We are talking about diversifying across factors, and even when "concentrate" into SV, there is still plenty of market beta there. Dave You are conflating two things. The issue is that the OP claims that concentrating into fewer stocks is somehow an increase in diversification wh...
by Alchemist
Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nice short piece on the math of factor investing
Replies: 202
Views: 12141

Re: nice short piece on the math of factor investing

I take serious exception to the continued definition contortions used by those selling factor strategies. An increased concentration into a risky asset is the opposite of diversification. If you want to promote factors because you think taking the risks that they will show up in the future and provi...
by Alchemist
Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 103
Views: 7652

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

I take no issue with someone who wants to own EM, but I do not. Caution is deserved, however, as EM stocks are significantly more risky than developed market stocks. There is sovereign risks, high levels of currency risk, and there is a much higher risk of fraud. Just keep in mind that developing co...
by Alchemist
Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you avoid international investing like Jack Bogle?
Replies: 151
Views: 9681

Re: Do you avoid international investing like Jack Bogle?

Ok, black swan event: To pay for $20 trillion in national debt, trillions in unfunded social security & medicare obligations, the US government nationalizes & seizes control of US companies. The US companies are still operating, but US stocks become worthless. In that scenario, foreign stoc...
by Alchemist
Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman article: 12 things every investor should know...
Replies: 43
Views: 5791

Re: Merriman article: 12 things every investor should know...

Even if the small, value, and small value premiums drop by a third, which some academic research suggests might be the case going forward, many believe that there are still likely to be long-term premiums in those asset classes, including myself. Ok, lets run with that. The SCV premium is supposed ...
by Alchemist
Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you avoid international investing like Jack Bogle?
Replies: 151
Views: 9681

Re: Do you avoid international investing like Jack Bogle?

Yes, I avoid international investing and I am a 100% U.S investor. The short version for why is that I believe, for a U.S. based investor, that investing in international stocks exposes you to a great deal of additional risk with no reward for it. The global economy is exposed to any Black Swan even...
by Alchemist
Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman article: 12 things every investor should know...
Replies: 43
Views: 5791

Re: Merriman article: 12 things every investor should know...

My initial cynicism toward Merriman seems to have been unfair. However, my main point was that if every investor attempted to tilt to the same thing that it would no longer work. Thus advising that 'every' investor do so, does not make much sense.
by Alchemist
Sun Mar 12, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman article: 12 things every investor should know...
Replies: 43
Views: 5791

Re: Merriman article: 12 things every investor should know...

This article is absurd. If "every" investor should tilt to Small or Value, how is there supposed to be a premium? How many tilters until it capsizes? He does mention the 15 year returns. Odd he doesn't mention the 3,5, or 10 year returns in which Small and Value have trailed TSM (weirdly t...
by Alchemist
Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I need small caps?
Replies: 37
Views: 3621

Re: Do I need small caps?

Short Answer: No Slightly less short answer: You already own them in VTI at market weighting, so you are already very well diversified. Also, probably can do without a financial adviser. What are they charging you, btw? The evidence suggests you should tilt at least a little to small cap and value. ...
by Alchemist
Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Much in Your Emergency Fund And Is It Used?
Replies: 188
Views: 19668

Re: How Much in Your Emergency Fund And Is It Used?

I keep $20k in a separate savings account at my main bank and represents about 10 months of expenses. It is kept separate from other cash (checking account, savings for car/wedding/ect). I have had to tap it a couple times, but for no more than $2k at a time due to car repairs, broken iPhone, funera...
by Alchemist
Fri Mar 03, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investable factors vs acadamic factors
Replies: 11
Views: 943

Re: investable factors vs acadamic factors

In regards to the OP it is actually a much broader problem than that. Funds flowing directly into Small/Value strategies are only part of the problem. Most the research data comes from times before indexing, and specifically total market indexing, became popular. I share nisiprius's skeptical view s...
by Alchemist
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has growth beaten value recently?
Replies: 33
Views: 4458

Re: Why has growth beaten value recently?

First of course that is true, and I write about that all the time and I have no idea, literally how you can say it seems to be ignored. That simply is not true. You talk a lot about tracking error, but your confidence that the premium will eventually show up seems nearly absolute. If I had misunder...
by Alchemist
Sun Feb 26, 2017 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has growth beaten value recently?
Replies: 33
Views: 4458

Re: Why has growth beaten value recently?

Achemist Bizarre? So here is simple question Which group of stocks is more riskY Those with higher SD of earnings and dividends as well as have more operating leverage and more financial leverage (more debt) or companies with the opposite traits? Obviously it's rhetorical. And just as obviously the...
by Alchemist
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has growth beaten value recently?
Replies: 33
Views: 4458

Re: Why has growth beaten value recently?

First of all, this thread is from 2016. Value had a comeback recently. Really? Vanguard Value Index (VIVAX) 10 year return: 6.02% Vanguard Growth Index (VIGRX) 10 year return: 8.38% Their 15 year returns are virtually tied at 7.81% vs 7.25% respectively Also there are way too many papers showing cl...
by Alchemist
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 23481

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

larryswedroe wrote:FWIW, in January 2000 the CAPE 10 was forecasting a real return to US stocks of 2.3%, it has been 3%. I'd say that was a very good prediction.

Larry


Out of curiosity, does that include dividends?
by Alchemist
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 79
Views: 14862

Re: The case against small cap value

My numbers come straight from Portfolio Visualizer for the asset classes. Many of us use it all the time. Then perhaps this is an important example of the difference between looking at academic measures and actual funds real investors can put money into. And you've picked a poor SCV fund. Vanguard'...
by Alchemist
Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 79
Views: 14862

Re: The case against small cap value

SCV has impressive out-performance over many time periods, the last decade is not one of them. 2000-2010 S&P 500: CAGR = .32% SCV: CAGR = 9.14% 2007-2017 S&P 500: CAGR = 6.96% SCV: CAGR = 7.63% While it may not be impressive to some, I'll take an additional .67% CAGR. And just for fun... 19...