Category: Market history

This article provides updated Telltale charts, including returns up to 2019. It analyzes the relative past performance of value and size factors compared to the total US market, as well as studying international and real estate market segments.
Using Telltale charts can be very informative, truly ‘telling the tale’ of what happened over time to portfolio trajectories, illustrating return to the mean properties or lack thereof.

In the past decade, a specialized type of fund gained increased popularity, funds implementing leverage over a given index. A previous article explored funds leveraging the S&P 500 index. This article will focus on a portfolio-level approach mixing stocks and …

Leveraged Portfolios – Quantitative Analysis Read More »

David Swensen, investment manager of the Yale University Endowment Fund, has addressed how investors should set up and manage their investments in his book, Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment. The Swensen portfolio consists of six core asset …

David Swensen’s portfolio (from Unconventional Success) – 2019 Update Read More »

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“For the money you need to take care of you for the rest of your life, set up a simple, balanced, diversified portfolio. I call this a “Permanent Portfolio” because once you set it up, you never need to rearrange …

Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio- 2019 update Read More »

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(blog article updated in January 2020 to fully factor in returns from 2019) In the past decade, a specialized type of fund gained increased popularity, funds implementing leverage over a given benchmark. The most popular benchmark being the S&P 500, …

Leveraging S&P 500 – Quantitative Analysis Read More »

A previous blog article explored income-centric risk and reward definitions, which could be viewed as more suitable to retirement than the usual academic definitions. Corresponding quantitative analysis of some simple US portfolios was provided. A follow-up article explored the perspective of retirees located outside the US.
This article extends this investigation by exploring in more technical depth the tie-in between Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWR) and variable withdrawal methods, through the use of a clever metric named Withdrawal Efficiency Rate (WER). 

A previous blog article explored income-centric risk and reward definitions, more suitable to retirement than the usual academic definitions. Corresponding quantitative analysis of some simple US portfolios was provided.
This article extends this investigation by taking the perspective of investors located in various developed countries (a form of ‘out of sample’ testing).

Financial literature from academics has been strongly influenced by the ground-breaking work of Harry Markowitz and William Sharpe, and the concept of risk & reward for a multi-asset portfolio. Although brilliantly innovative, this work is often misused, equating risk with (portfolio) volatility and reward with (portfolio) returns, and applying such principles without acknowledging the fundamental differences between investors and speculators, or accumulators and retirees.
This article will explore risk and reward from a perspective more suitable to retirement, and perform corresponding quantitative analysis of some simple portfolios.

Michael Kitces wrote an intriguing article in 2008, which notably quantified the (empirical) relationship between the Cyclically Adjusted PE ratio (aka CAPE) and safe withdrawal rates (SWR) of subsequent retirement cycles. This blog article extends this study, adding ten more years of data (i.e. up to 2017), and then ponders about the practical applicability of such findings.

This article provides updated Telltale charts, including 2017 returns. It focuses on the relative past performance of value and size factors compared to the total US market, as well as studying international and real estate funds. 
Using Telltale charts can be very informative, truly ‘telling the tale’ of what happened over time to portfolio trajectories, illustrating return to the mean properties, or lack thereof.