Domestic/International

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Bogleheads Investing Start-Up Kit: Asset Classes

For Introduction to Investing and Implementing an Investment Plan see Bogleheads Investing Start-Up Kit.

Contents

Domestic/International Allocation

According to the S&P/Citibank Global Broad Market Index, as of mid-2008 about 60% of the world's stock investment opportunities, as measured by market capitalization, are outside of the United States. See Figure 1.

Figure 1: World Equity Market Capitalization

So it makes sense to consider diversifying your portfolio by taking advantage of the large asset class of international stocks. Today, focusing solely on the U.S. means you could be missing many attractive investment opportunities.

Consider that in international markets you will find...

  • 10 of the 10 largest automobile companies
  • 9 of the 10 largest metals and mining companies
  • 8 of the 10 largest telecommunications companies
  • 6 of the 10 largest electrical equipment and instruments companies
  • 5 of the 10 largest household durables companies


Despite the potential drawbacks of a perceived higher risk, the impact of currency fluctuations, higher investment costs, and an aversion to short-term underperformance relative to domestic markets, international stock investments provide a diversification benefit relative to an all-U.S. equity allocation.

Figure 2: Graph of U.S./International allocation 'efficient frontier' (1970-2008)

The graph in Figure 2 shows relative investment return and volatility (standard deviation of return) for a U.S. S&P 500 index investment as well as an international EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index investment. The graph shows the years from 1970 -- the first full year of the EAFE index -- to the end of 2008; a 39-year investment period. During the full period, the S&P 500 index had both a higher return and a lower standard deviation than the EAFE index. However, notice the non-linear curve of the graph. This graph shows what is known as an efficient frontier and shows that adding the diversifying effect of the EAFE portfolio (in 10% increments as denoted by the squares) to an all-U.S. S&P 500 portfolio actually increased return while also decreasing standard deviation. The 'most efficient' point being around a 70%S&P500/30% EAFE combination. But notice that adding anywhere from 1-40% EAFE resulted in an increased return with either a similar or lower standard deviation.

Figure 5: Graph of S&P 500, EAFE, and MSCI World indexes
Figure 3: Graph of U.S./International allocation 'efficient frontier' (by decades)

Of course, these returns are based on historical numbers for a nearly 40-year period. Looking at Figure 3, which shows the efficient frontier by decade, it is obvious that the optimal U.S./International allocation differs depending on the period. However, one thing is clear; combining both U.S. and International stocks has historically increased your return, decreased your volatility of returns, or both.

Figure 4: Graph of U.S./International allocation 'efficient frontier' (including emerging markets)

Figure 4 is similar to Figure 1. However, instead of using just the EAFE developed market international index, it combines that with international emerging market figures when they became available from 1988 onward. Figure 4 shows the even greater diversification effect of both developed and emerging markets stocks when added to an all-U.S. stock portfolio.

Another way to visualize the diversification benefits of holding both U.S. and international equities is shown in Figure 5. This graph shows the growth of an initial $100,000 investment over the period of 1972 to 2007. The S&P 500 index is representative of United States stocks, while the EAFE (Europe, Australia, and Far East) index is representative of developed international markets. The MSCI World index is comprised of all developed market countries. Their percentage in the index is weighted by their global market-capitalization, and so fluctuates in size as each country increases or decreases its world market presence.

Unlike the previous graphs mentioned, which held a static U.S. to international weighting, the MSCI World index shown in Figure 5 has fluctuated quite a bit with the U.S. comprising the majority of the index during the early periods, Japan dominating during the 1980's, and Europe gaining an increasing share more recently as the U.S. percentage has declined to about 45%. So while this graph may not be directly comparable to one showing a static U.S. to international allocation, what it does show is that, historically, holding a global-market weighted index has included a diversification benefit in that the investment return was higher than an all U.S. allocation, while its volatility (or standard deviation) was significantly tempered from that of an all international allocation.

The increased number of globally oriented equity funds such as Vanguard's Total World Stock Index Fund may reflect a shift in thinking regarding domestic/international equity allocations. Both because markets tend to move in different cycles and because you want to diversify your currency exposure, the need for both U.S. and international allocations is a common recommendation. With U.S.-based companies now deriving a significant portion of their revenue from overseas, and conversely, international companies making large portions of their sales in the U.S., the idea that you need to treat U.S. and international stocks as distinct assets has been somewhat blurred.

Main Types of International Funds

Some international funds select stocks from many countries, while others focus on a particular region or country. Still others select investments from countries with similar economic conditions, including the two major distinctive types of either developed markets or emerging markets.

  • A developed market exists in a country that is a fully modern industrial nation with a well-established stock market, such as most Western European nations, Canada, Japan, and Australia.
  • Emerging markets are nations evolving from an agricultural to an industrial economy or from a government-controlled economy to a free market, such as Argentina, Indonesia, Hungary, and India.

Not surprisingly, the risks are generally higher in the emerging markets, where governments and financial markets may be less certain. On the other hand, emerging markets may offer the potential for faster economic growth as well as market cycles that are less synchronized with the developed markets.

Risks of international investing

Currency risk. Investments denominated in foreign currencies decline in value for U.S. investors when the U.S. dollar rises in value against those currencies. Conversely, the investments rise in value when the U.S. dollar weakens. There have been prolonged periods when the dollar has weakened against foreign currencies and others when it has strengthened.

Country risk. Events in a specific country—such as political upheaval, financial troubles, or a natural disaster—can drive down the stock prices of companies in that country. You can reduce but not eliminate this risk by choosing an international fund that invests in many countries and has a strong focus on developed nations.

Liquidity risk. Sometimes foreign stocks can be difficult to buy or sell, in part because trading volume on foreign stock exchanges tends to be much lower than on U.S. exchanges. Liquidity risk means the fund manager may have trouble buying or selling stocks without causing their prices to rise or fall substantially. You can reduce this risk by focusing on funds that invest in many countries and on those with well-established financial markets.

How Bogleheads allocate

According to a poll, most people on the Bogleheads forum allocate anywhere from 20% to 50% of stocks to international.

Links

Academic Papers: International Stocks

Academic Papers: US Stocks


Additional papers available in the Reference Library: US Stocks

How to Cite

You can link to this page from the Bogleheads Forum by copying and pasting the following text into your forum posting:

Please see [url=http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Domestic/International]Domestic/International[/url] on the [url=http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page]Bogleheads Wiki[/url].
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International Stocks
International Stocks Domestic/International • Slice and Dice International • International Small-Cap • S&P/Citibank Global Broad Market Index • Foreign tax credit
Comparing Vanguard International Funds FAQ on Vanguard International Funds • Compare Vanguard International Funds • Vanguard SEC Filings: International & Global Stock Funds
Vanguard International Fund Distributions Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Tax Distributions • Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund Tax Distributions • Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund Tax Distributions • Vanguard European Stock Index Fund Tax Distributions • Vanguard Pacific Stock Index Fund Tax Distributions • Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Tax Distributions • Vanguard International Growth Fund Tax Distributions • Vanguard International Value Fund Tax Distributions
Vanguard International Fund Expenses Vanguard European Stock Index Fund Expenses • Vanguard Pacific Stock Index Fund Expenses • Vanguard Emerging Market Expense Ratios
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