Not Bogle Head Philosophy...But I Have Done Well So Far...

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Not Bogle Head Philosophy...But I Have Done Well So Far...

Postby Wind power » Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:23 pm

I did the taboo thing..I bought into several individual stocks and continue to do so...but one has really shined....I jumped on Tokyo Electric after the terrible nuclear debacle they suffered.
I got in at two different points, one was at about 6 bucks a share...still down but I hedged a bit more later and got about 3500 shares @ 2.27 a share when it was on life support..hey what the heck...go or blow huh?....now it hovers around 5.20 a share...I'm going to hang on to them for a while longer....since they don’t pay a dividend, I will sell a bit later and build up a holding in Duke Energy which has a decent dividend...LOL I'm beating my 401k mutual fund like a drum...who says fund managers are not cut out for the fast food industry?
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Winning with individual stock picks.

Postby Taylor Larimore » Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:32 pm

Hi Wind Power:

If you are good at picking stocks, consider becoming a mutual fund manager.

Many fund managers beat their index--although it is usually different managers every few years.
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Postby Wind power » Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:33 pm

LOL you want fries with that? :D
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Postby WatchinU » Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:03 pm

Glad you are doing well with that one stock pick.

have you considered selling enough of that stock to cover you initial cost?
do you have an exit strategy? do you have a stop in place?
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Postby Rick Ferri » Sat Aug 06, 2011 11:16 pm

I won three times in a row on scratch-to-win instant lottery tickets! Am I skilled at playing scratch lottery games, or was I just lucky?

I was lucky. How do I know? I had no special information about the tickets, no inside scope about where the winning tickets were in the stack, no special knowledge about the numbering on the outside of the ticket. It was all luck.

Count your blessings, cash in your gains, buy index funds.

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Mutual fund investing is simple. There is risk, there is return, and there are costs. All else is marketing.
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Postby Ben24 » Sun Aug 07, 2011 1:01 am

What separates the dummies from talented stock pickers isnt results, but rather reasoning and methodology. A lot of really dumb people make a lot of money in the markets, but that doesnt mean theyre good at what they do.
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Re: Not Bogle Head Philosophy...But I Have Done Well So Far.

Postby YDNAL » Sun Aug 07, 2011 6:34 am

Wind power wrote:I got in at two different points, one was at about 6 bucks a share...still down but I hedged a bit more later and got about 3500 shares @ 2.27 a share when it was on life support..hey what the heck...go or blow huh?....now it hovers around 5.20 a share...I'm going to hang on to them for a while longer....

You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
Landy | Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde
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Postby Wind power » Sun Aug 07, 2011 7:04 am

WatchinU wrote:Glad you are doing well with that one stock pick.

have you considered selling enough of that stock to cover you initial cost?
do you have an exit strategy? do you have a stop in place?


I will probably sell when its around 12-13 dollars a share...might take a year or so.
My method to the madness:

1. Japanese society is far different from ours...I simply looked at how the Japanese historically have handled tragedies.
(If this was an American company I would not have touched it at 1 cent a share....we sue each other into the abyss...the litigation here would have been counted in decades.)

2. Tokyo electric is about the 3rd largest power company in Japan....where are they going with that kind of infrastructure in place?

3. In the world of politic's, concessions are always made.. I feel there will be some kind of agreement, the government will insist on Tokyo Electric divesting themselves of nuclear power, in return for assistance in the clean up.
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Postby john94549 » Sun Aug 07, 2011 7:25 am

I'm beating Mr. Market with my CD ladder this past week.

Actually, I beat Mr. Market with my checking account.

I guess that makes me a genius.
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Postby xerty24 » Sun Aug 07, 2011 8:26 am

Rick Ferri wrote:I won three times in a row on scratch-to-win instant lottery tickets! Am I skilled at playing scratch lottery games, or was I just lucky?

I was lucky. How do I know? I had no special information about the tickets, no inside scope about where the winning tickets were in the stack, no special knowledge about the numbering on the outside of the ticket. It was all luck.

Keep your eyes open and it might not be all luck. We've had several stories recently about people beating the lottery, and unlike stocks that are positive in expectation, beating the lottery requires overcoming something like a -50% starting point.
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Postby KlangFool » Sun Aug 07, 2011 9:00 am

Wind power wrote:
WatchinU wrote:Glad you are doing well with that one stock pick.

have you considered selling enough of that stock to cover you initial cost?
do you have an exit strategy? do you have a stop in place?


I will probably sell when its around 12-13 dollars a share...might take a year or so.
My method to the madness:

1. Japanese society is far different from ours...I simply looked at how the Japanese historically have handled tragedies.
(If this was an American company I would not have touched it at 1 cent a share....we sue each other into the abyss...the litigation here would have been counted in decades.)

2. Tokyo electric is about the 3rd largest power company in Japan....where are they going with that kind of infrastructure in place?

3. In the world of politic's, concessions are always made.. I feel there will be some kind of agreement, the government will insist on Tokyo Electric divesting themselves of nuclear power, in return for assistance in the clean up.


Wind power.

Sell half when it is triple.. Then, you are playing with banker's money. Aka, even the remaining half went to zero, you had made 50%.

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Postby Wind power » Sun Aug 07, 2011 9:48 am

Klang & Watchinu
Sounds like good advice, will do! thank you!
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Postby Dandy » Sun Aug 07, 2011 11:18 am

If you see a major company stock plunge and have the guts to buy many times you will be rewarded. Many times you will lose your shirt. You feel that things are way oversold so you jump in. You have little information about the company, its competitors and the real chances of turnaround.

I'll call that speculating vs investing. It can be very profitable. It is beyond my risk tolerance so good luck and don't forget it is more about guts and luck than investing. I would keep it to a small % of your portfolio and not replenish that "seed" money if it goes to zero.
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Postby rustymutt » Sun Aug 07, 2011 11:32 am

Years ago Nortel, a Canadian stock crashed with the markets to a below a dollar share. I snatched up 10,000 shares at $00.82 a share. As the Canadian government stepped in to keep them from going bankrupt, the stock went up in a two month period to $1.32 a share at which time I sold my shares for nice profit. They went on up to over $3 a share in following years. But in 2008 when the market crashed, the company went under.
My point is that anyone can get lucky with stocks once in a while, but it's luck. It took me sheer guts to buy that stock of 82 cents a share. I could have lost that if the Canadian government hadn't stepped in. I won't be doing that again.
At the Very Least, Work Hard, Do Your Best, Know the Truth and the Facts and Always Be Honest!
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Postby trico » Sun Aug 07, 2011 12:56 pm

I must admit I am a terrible stock picker. Well maybe I am a good stock picker but can't buy and sell at the right price. I bought Amazon.com during the tech bubble at $80.00/sh and panicked during that bear market, and sold it for $25.00/sh. Now look at the price of Amazon.com.
Mutual funds are my way, and I will stay there. At least I tend not to panic during a down draft.
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