Black Monday?

[Lbill]

Now that U.S. debt has been downgraded, what is the U.S. markets in for on Monday? Stocks trading in Saudi Arabia after the downgrade are down 5.5% so far. Looking like stocks and bonds will get killed on Monday.

[Tom_T]

I don't know... wasn't the bond market anticipating a downgrade at some point? This isn't totally out of the blue.

[Morgthorak]

Black is a beautiful color in its own right, and can complement many things. So we should not use it as some sort of negative way of describing something.

If we have 5% decline on Monday, it's not the end of the world as we know it. It's just more financial market drama that will blow over at one point or another, it always does.

If you are really worried, it might be best to do a media blackout (ha, see how I worked the word "black" in there again? LOL) and not pay attention to any of the coverage.

Go outside and go fishing. Take a hike. Read a book (preferable fiction that has nothing to do with finance) and otherwise spend your time doing something you enjoy.

Let the markets roil and boil, while you serenely go about your business.

[zeugmite]

Now that U.S. debt has been downgraded, what is the U.S. markets in for on Monday? Stocks trading in Saudi Arabia after the downgrade are down 5.5% so far. Looking like stocks and bonds will get killed on Monday.

I don't know about short-run killing but even over the long-run everything should be marked down on an assessment of a loss-of-value of a reserve instrument into which everyone has stored value, and against which everyone has been measuring value on a relative basis.

[The Wizard]

I don't know... wasn't the bond market anticipating a downgrade at some point? This isn't totally out of the blue.

I think he's wondering what the STOCK market response to the government BOND rating change will be.
I presently have no idea...

[Thor OnionLover]

"Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy night."

[bpp]

Question to ponder: What happened when Japan was downgraded a few months ago?

(Answer: not much, as far as I can see. Who knows, maybe it's different this time. However, I stayed the course through that one, and will do so this time as well.)

[magazinewriter]

Black is a beautiful color in its own right, and can complement many things. So we should not use it as some sort of negative way of describing something.

If we have 5% decline on Monday, it's not the end of the world as we know it. It's just more financial market drama that will blow over at one point or another, it always does.

If you are really worried, it might be best to do a media blackout (ha, see how I worked the word "black" in there again? LOL) and not pay attention to any of the coverage.

Go outside and go fishing. Take a hike. Read a book (preferable fiction that has nothing to do with finance) and otherwise spend your time doing something you enjoy.

Let the markets roil and boil, while you serenely go about your business.

What good advice!

[mamster]

Hey, remember last week, when stocks were supposed to be up on news of a debt ceiling compromise?

If everybody is expecting Monday to be an exciting day, I'm guessing it's going to turn out boring. Not that I'm putting money on this. (Short VIX?)

[grayfox]

It would make more sense to call it Red Monday or Green Monday because that's the colors they use on all the screens.

I don't know how significant this S&P downgrade is.

Think about what bond ratings are for. You want to buy a bond and you want to know if the borrower will pay you back. For companies, provided you understand accounting, you dig through the income statement and balance sheet to see of the interest payments can be covered. Most bond investors are not expert enough or don't have the time, so they let the ratings agencies do that work.

But for the Federal Government, everybody already has an opinion about the government's ability to pay. They don't need S&P to tell them that budget deficits are too high. They already heard every talking head on TV say so. How many times have we heard that debt is 100% of GDP. So S&P tells us what everyone already knew.

[DartThrower]

Dry powder at the ready (for rebalancing).

[Valuethinker]

Now that U.S. debt has been downgraded, what is the U.S. markets in for on Monday? Stocks trading in Saudi Arabia after the downgrade are down 5.5% so far. Looking like stocks and bonds will get killed on Monday.

I was actually looking for a rally. It's been terribly gloomy for rather a long time, and the non farm payroll number was not disastrous, I don't think.

But there is a bit of positive feedback loop in this (ie bad news begets bad news, more writeoffs, which drives markets lower).

One feels the Euro thing is now so out of control so that, until that is resolved, it's going to be flight to safety.

They are talking about the US issuing T Bills at zero interest rate the flight to safety is so bad.

[jvclark02]

I will follow my IPS AA and rebalance as necessary

[dgm]

i do not plan on acting on any speculation, but:
people were just fleeing to us treasuries just this week, driving interest rates down to negative yields.

i don't think a symbolic downgrade from one of three ratings agencies is going to do anything...if anything, maybe it'll have the reverse effect and drive ppl back into more equities and cause the market to rally a good bit.

[Rick Ferri]

Question: Where is $14 trillion currently invested in U.S. Treasury debt going to go?
Answer: It's not going anywhere. It's staying in U.S. Treasury debt.

Question: Will this downgrade have any long-term effect on interest rates?
Answer: I doubt it. Treasuries rates set by an auction market and participants are already well aware of the U.S. fiscal situation.

Question: Will there be a big sell-off of stocks on Monday?
Answer: I have no idea. Ask me on Tuesday.

Rick Ferri

PS. New Forbes blog: The US Downgrade is My Fault

.

[tsturbo]

If you are really worried, it might be best to do a media blackout (ha, see how I worked the word "black" in there again? LOL) and not pay attention to any of the coverage.

Go outside and go fishing. Take a hike. Read a book (preferable fiction that has nothing to do with finance) and otherwise spend your time doing something you enjoy.

Let the markets roil and boil, while you serenely go about your business.

Excellent advice and that is exactly what I plan to do!

[SVariance1]

I keep going back and forth on this. I think what could happen on Monday will be more of the same; high volatility with the risk trade being off. In other words stocks especially speculative ones could be pounded. Oddly enough, corporate bonds, especially high yield could get hit hard as investors flee risky assets. Treasuries might actually benefit from all of this.

[ofcmetz]

I agree that people already know the fiscal situation of the US and should have their own opinions regardless of what ratings agencies say.

But who knows when you are in a slide any bad news can drive more stock selling. I'll be anxious to hear Rick's prediction on Tuesday about what stocks will do this Monday.

[donocash]

I think it depends on Sunday.

The main impetus for this downdraft in the market is the looming chaos in Europe, not the US.

The European Central Bank will have to announce some concrete steps they will take to backstop the PIIGS debt to keep yield spreads from blowing out. Based on their record so far, I would guess very black Monday. I also reserve the right to be wrong; the ECB may come up with a brilliant Brady Bill-like plan that will send the markets soaring.

The S&P announcement is a non-event. I think Standard and Poors acted like a college of punks. I suspect it's payback for the hard time they got from the government for so badly misjudging the mortgage-backed security disaster. I predict no effect on Treasuries. In fact, I suspose the two year note could go to zero if the poop hits the fan in Europa.

[newport1]

From a contrarian standpoint, it must be a good thing that I am watching a news program called On The Brink: Answers From The Abyss.

[Valuethinker]

I agree that people already know the fiscal situation of the US and should have their own opinions regardless of what ratings agencies say.

But who knows when you are in a slide any bad news can drive more stock selling. I'll be anxious to hear Rick's prediction on Tuesday about what stocks will do this Monday.

One should understand the US fiscal position does not look so bad from outside USA.

In the case of Greece/Ireland/Portugal and maybe Spain, there's no feasible solution that does not include a very significant debt writeoff. The countries cannot grow fast enough to pay off their debts in any feasible timeframe. So it's a when, not an if, on default/ rescheduling.

US there's no sense of that at least from an outsider's eyes. You are not even in as bad a position as Canada was in 1990, say.

[dryfly]

Black is a beautiful color in its own right, and can complement many things. So we should not use it as some sort of negative way of describing something.

If we have 5% decline on Monday, it's not the end of the world as we know it. It's just more financial market drama that will blow over at one point or another, it always does.

If you are really worried, it might be best to do a media blackout (ha, see how I worked the word "black" in there again? LOL) and not pay attention to any of the coverage.

Go outside and go fishing. Take a hike. Read a book (preferable fiction that has nothing to do with finance) and otherwise spend your time doing something you enjoy.

Let the markets roil and boil, while you serenely go about your business.

Your advice for Monday may be fine, but my concern for the economy long term makes it difficult for me to take your advice for the next year.

Monday may be a small blip on the radar of our financial future if our economy does not improve. We need to remind ourselves of why we are at this point. We can't overlook the tremendous national debt and the number of folks that are unemployed and what it will take to correct this situation.

With that said, I will not be making any changes to my portfolio in the near future.

[mudfud]

The S&P announcement is a non-event. I think Standard and Poors acted like a college of punks. I suspect it's payback for the hard time they got from the government for so badly misjudging the mortgage-backed security disaster.

Yes, they have accelerated their slide into irrelevance.

[3CT_Paddler]

I think it depends on Sunday.

The main impetus for this downdraft in the market is the looming chaos in Europe, not the US.

The European Central Bank will have to announce some concrete steps they will take to backstop the PIIGS debt to keep yield spreads from blowing out. Based on their record so far, I would guess very black Monday. I also reserve the right to be wrong; the ECB may come up with a brilliant Brady Bill-like plan that will send the markets soaring.

The S&P announcement is a non-event. I think Standard and Poors acted like a college of punks. I suspect it's payback for the hard time they got from the government for so badly misjudging the mortgage-backed security disaster. I predict no effect on Treasuries. In fact, I suspose the two year note could go to zero if the poop hits the fan in Europa.

I agree. This is all about the threat to the big financial institutions in the event that a country in western Europe bigger than Greece actually defaults.

[mamster]

Okay, "college of punks" is going to be my phrase of the day. I'm going to work it into conversation several times before the day is over. Thank you, donocash.

[Lbill]

I guess the only thing going for the markets is that everyone already knew how sick they were. The debt downgrade is just the official diagnosis. If you know a dog has rabies, you should have been staying away from it instead of letting it in the house to play with the kids...

[Valuethinker]

Your advice for Monday may be fine, but my concern for the economy long term makes it difficult for me to take your advice for the next year.

Monday may be a small blip on the radar of our financial future if our economy does not improve. We need to remind ourselves of why we are at this point. We can't overlook the tremendous national debt and the number of folks that are unemployed and what it will take to correct this situation.

With that said, I will not be making any changes to my portfolio in the near future.

Dryfly, beware the logical contradiction.

In the short run, worrying about the debt might lead you to advocate cutbacks in government spending.

However conversely in the long run, a higher GDP would lessen the burden, and the way to get to higher employment and hence GDP might well be more government spending.

This is the nexus of the debate going on, right now the deficit cutters very much have the upper hand.

That is strikingly reminiscent of the election of 1932, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt campaigned on a programme of balancing the budget.

[newport1]

Your advice for Monday may be fine, but my concern for the economy long term makes it difficult for me to take your advice for the next year.

Monday may be a small blip on the radar of our financial future if our economy does not improve. We need to remind ourselves of why we are at this point. We can't overlook the tremendous national debt and the number of folks that are unemployed and what it will take to correct this situation.

With that said, I will not be making any changes to my portfolio in the near future.

Dryfly, beware the logical contradiction.

In the short run, worrying about the debt might lead you to advocate cutbacks in government spending.

However conversely in the long run, a higher GDP would lessen the burden, and the way to get to higher employment and hence GDP might well be more government spending.

This is the nexus of the debate going on, right now the deficit cutters very much have the upper hand.

That is strikingly reminiscent of the election of 1932, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt campaigned on a programme of balancing the budget.

So...government spending produces higher GDP?

I am reminded of a story Milton Freedman told: when visiting China he saw hundreds of men digging ditches with shovels. When he asked the government official why they didn't use heavy equipment, he was told they wanted to produce jobs. Milton then asked, in that case, why not have them use spoons.

[Gordon]

No not Monday. the Financial futures market is opening tomorrow Sunday
at 6:AM

now we will see some interesting action.

[zeugmite]

I am reminded of a story Milton Freedman told: when visiting China he saw hundreds of men digging ditches with shovels. When he asked the government official why they didn't use heavy equipment, he was told they wanted to produce jobs. Milton then asked, in that case, why not have them use spoons.

If all that the men are capable of doing is digging ditches, then spreading the work out among them might be simpler than arbitrarily picking one among them to be paid for using heavy equipment, then taxing him and giving a proportional amount to the rest as unemployment insurance.

[newport1]

I am reminded of a story Milton Freedman told: when visiting China he saw hundreds of men digging ditches with shovels. When he asked the government official why they didn't use heavy equipment, he was told they wanted to produce jobs. Milton then asked, in that case, why not have them use spoons.

If all that the men are capable of doing is digging ditches, then spreading the work out among them might be simpler than arbitrarily picking one among them to be paid for using heavy equipment, then taxing him and giving a proportional amount to the rest as unemployment insurance.

I can't tell if you are being serious. Of course, by that logic we could have 100% employment through paying half the population to dig a hole and the other half to fill it with dirt. We could also make them all millionaires.

[zeugmite]

I can't tell if you are being serious. Of course, by that logic we could have 100% employment through paying half the population to dig a hole and the other half to fill it with dirt. We could also make them all millionaires.

Who said anything about doing useless work? I was talking about allocating useful work when productivity is high.

[newport1]

I can't tell if you are being serious. Of course, by that logic we could have 100% employment through paying half the population to dig a hole and the other half to fill it with dirt. We could also make them all millionaires.

Who said anything about doing useless work? I was talking about allocating useful work when productivity is high.

I think the free market allocates work.

[Valuethinker]

Your advice for Monday may be fine, but my concern for the economy long term makes it difficult for me to take your advice for the next year.

Monday may be a small blip on the radar of our financial future if our economy does not improve. We need to remind ourselves of why we are at this point. We can't overlook the tremendous national debt and the number of folks that are unemployed and what it will take to correct this situation.

With that said, I will not be making any changes to my portfolio in the near future.

Dryfly, beware the logical contradiction.

In the short run, worrying about the debt might lead you to advocate cutbacks in government spending.

However conversely in the long run, a higher GDP would lessen the burden, and the way to get to higher employment and hence GDP might well be more government spending.

This is the nexus of the debate going on, right now the deficit cutters very much have the upper hand.

That is strikingly reminiscent of the election of 1932, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt campaigned on a programme of balancing the budget.

So...government spending produces higher GDP?

I am reminded of a story Milton Freedman told: when visiting China he saw hundreds of men digging ditches with shovels. When he asked the government official why they didn't use heavy equipment, he was told they wanted to produce jobs. Milton then asked, in that case, why not have them use spoons.

Hi

If you are at the zero interest rate lower bound, then more government spending does not crowd out private sector activity.

It's abundantly clear that globally we have a surplus of desired savings over demand for savings to invest. We are in a situation of insufficient aggregate demand.

This is not news. In the 1930s, Germany pulled itself out of a slump by massive public works and rearmament programmes-- the latter had little or no contribution to productivity but they did lead to full employment. England managed to kick off a private sector housing boom (the rules were changed to allow middle class people like office clerks and civil servants to buy houses) but that was accompanied by big infrastructure spend (no one was going to move to London's Metroland without their being a Metropolitan Line to get them to work ). The North and Scotland continued to suffer due to the collapse of export markets.

The impact on the lifetime earnings expectations of a young person of being unemployed for a significant period is very large. As much as 20%: far more than simply their being unemployed for 1-2 years would imply over a career lifetime.

So if we can fix that, by employing that young person, we can in fact raise their productive capacity for their whole life.

So yes, government spending can produce higher GDP in both the short and the long run.

- there's lots of things government can do that raise productivity (for example, infrastructure, or in the case of the UK decarbonizing homes: we have 15m homes without proper loft insulation and cavity walled homes that have no wall insulation-- fix that, and you've actually increased the productive capacity of the UK economy) such as my example of youth employment above (keeping the MER educational maintenance allowance-- the £30/wk subsidy that keeps 16-18 year olds in school, is a very cheap example of the same thing: something the Coalition has belatedly realized, as they abolished it for minimal savings and are now seeking to backtrack without admitting it by introducing a new programme of similar content).

*£30/week is a very very cheap subsidy to keep a 17 year old off the Dole, and will improve their lifetime earnings prospects very significantly (A Level graduates earn up to 40% more over their lifetimes than school leavers without A levels-- that's even true if they do not attend university).

- if you are at the zero interest rate lower bound, then crowding out is minimal or zero. In fact, by triggering private sector investment, you might get crowding in

Since China at the time was running a command economy, Friedman's critique is inappropriate to the modern UK (or US).

[letsgobobby]

I think it depends on Sunday.

The main impetus for this downdraft in the market is the looming chaos in Europe, not the US.

The European Central Bank will have to announce some concrete steps they will take to backstop the PIIGS debt to keep yield spreads from blowing out. Based on their record so far, I would guess very black Monday. I also reserve the right to be wrong; the ECB may come up with a brilliant Brady Bill-like plan that will send the markets soaring.

The S&P announcement is a non-event. I think Standard and Poors acted like a college of punks. I suspect it's payback for the hard time they got from the government for so badly misjudging the mortgage-backed security disaster. I predict no effect on Treasuries. In fact, I suspose the two year note could go to zero if the poop hits the fan in Europa.

this is about where I lay, as well. Of course no one knows with this kind of unprecedent event, but I think stocks crater worldwide for economic reasons while treasuries catch a bid, as usual, for safety.

IMO the most interesting market to watch will be gold. If it drops precipitously it is signaling fear about a deflationary recession. If it rises precipitously it is signaling fear about sovereign debt and currency devaluation. Either way I'm selling what little left I have on Monday. ~$1600 is a pretty profit for me. Other than that, I'll need to TLH my VSS and possibly rebalance if things get ugly enough.

[zeugmite]

I can't tell if you are being serious. Of course, by that logic we could have 100% employment through paying half the population to dig a hole and the other half to fill it with dirt. We could also make them all millionaires.

Who said anything about doing useless work? I was talking about allocating useful work when productivity is high.

I think the free market allocates work.

The free market is perfectly capable of allocating work in a manner not consistent with social welfare, such as structural high unemployment. People aren't goods, and don't behave like it, either.

[charityneedshelp]

Question: Where is $14 trillion currently invested in U.S. Treasury debt going to go?
Answer: It's not going anywhere. It's staying in U.S. Treasury debt.

Question: Will this downgrade have any long-term effect on interest rates?
Answer: I doubt it. Treasuries rates set by an auction market and participants are already well aware of the U.S. fiscal situation.

Question: Will there be a big sell-off of stocks on Monday?
Answer: I have no idea. Ask me on Tuesday.

Rick Ferri

PS. New Forbes blog: The US Downgrade is My Fault

If this post is really by Rick Ferri, the money magaer, I am confused. Rick, you know I presume, that money that would flow out of long term US debt would flow where it is perceived to be safer. This would include short term US debt, gold, Swiss franc based investments and similar targets perceived to offer safety? Do you really not know this? If not, how can you effectively get paid for managing money?

.

[letsgobobby]

Question: Where is $14 trillion currently invested in U.S. Treasury debt going to go?
Answer: It's not going anywhere. It's staying in U.S. Treasury debt.

Question: Will this downgrade have any long-term effect on interest rates?
Answer: I doubt it. Treasuries rates set by an auction market and participants are already well aware of the U.S. fiscal situation.

Question: Will there be a big sell-off of stocks on Monday?
Answer: I have no idea. Ask me on Tuesday.

Rick Ferri

PS. New Forbes blog: The US Downgrade is My Fault

If this post is really by Rick Ferri, the money magaer, I am confused. Rick, you know I presume, that money that would flow out of long term US debt would flow where it is perceived to be safer. This would include short term US debt, gold, Swiss franc based investments and similar targets perceived to offer safety? Do you really not know this? If not, how can you effectively get paid for managing money?

.

you have your opinion, Rick has his. Funny thing is, on Monday we'll know who's right. But we already know who is snarkier.

[Rick Ferri]

Question: Where is $14 trillion currently invested in U.S. Treasury debt going to go?
Answer: It's not going anywhere. It's staying in U.S. Treasury debt.

Question: Will this downgrade have any long-term effect on interest rates?
Answer: I doubt it. Treasuries rates set by an auction market and participants are already well aware of the U.S. fiscal situation.

Question: Will there be a big sell-off of stocks on Monday?
Answer: I have no idea. Ask me on Tuesday.

Rick Ferri

PS. New Forbes blog: The US Downgrade is My Fault

If this post is really by Rick Ferri, the money managers, I am confused. Rick, you know I presume, that money that would flow out of long term US debt would flow where it is perceived to be safer. This would include short term US debt, gold, Swiss franc based investments and similar targets perceived to offer safety? Do you really not know this? If not, how can you effectively get paid for managing money?

Nothing has change with our financial situation from Friday to Saturday as a result of the S&P downgrading. The report put out by S&P said nothing new and it holds no special insight. What was said has been said many times before by many different analysts, economists, and asset managers.

How much of a difference will make on Monday? I have not heard anyone say they are selling T-bonds as a result of this downgrade. My guess is that after the first 30 minutes, after traders have stopped holding their breath, it will be business as usual in the financial markets.

PS. The real issues effecting global markets are happening in Europe, not in the US. There we are talking defaults, not subjective ratings downgrades.

Rick Ferri

[tnhooper45]

Nice blog Rick, good read

[leonard]

Plan to go camping next week and leave all the media at home. By the time you get back, you will have your answer and missed all the stress of finding out at the time it happens.

[dryfly]

Your advice for Monday may be fine, but my concern for the economy long term makes it difficult for me to take your advice for the next year.

Monday may be a small blip on the radar of our financial future if our economy does not improve. We need to remind ourselves of why we are at this point. We can't overlook the tremendous national debt and the number of folks that are unemployed and what it will take to correct this situation.

With that said, I will not be making any changes to my portfolio in the near future.

Dryfly, beware the logical contradiction.

In the short run, worrying about the debt might lead you to advocate cutbacks in government spending.

However conversely in the long run, a higher GDP would lessen the burden, and the way to get to higher employment and hence GDP might well be more government spending.

.

We are probably getting off subject from the OP, and I'm certainly not qualified as an economist to provide a solution. It greatly concerns me when we abandon the free market and turn to the government to create higher employment and higher GDP.

Expecting solutions from the government and not letting the capitalistic free market determine our financial future worries me a lot more than what will happen on Monday 8 August 2011.

I could ramble on ad nauseam about this but it would become political. Maybe Monday will mean different things to different folks.

[SVariance1]

It greatly concerns me when we abandon the free market and turn to the government to create higher employment and higher GDP.

This is what is necessary when the private sector is not creating the jobs. And with the equity markets declining, my guess is that companies will start laying off more people than they are hiring.

[nisiprius]

I can't predict the market and it always surprises me.

So since I expect it to go down it will probably go up.

But since I expect it to surprise me, it probably will surprise me by not surprising me and go down after all.

But since...

[Michael Baker]

Just DCA and don't worry about it. Know you are buying low.

[Michael Baker]

I can't predict the market and it always surprises me.

So since I expect it to go down it will probably go up.

But since I expect it to surprise me, it probably will surprise me by not surprising me and go down after all.

But since...

Always happens to me too. most recently when they passed the debt bill and the markets plunged.

[chaz]

I don't care.

[Marmot]

I bought 21K of VTSAX at close on Thursday and just moved 20K into my Vanguard account for Monday. I have been DCA'ing since 1989, I just view this as a bit of a discount purchase.

[1530jesup]

The S&P announcement is a non-event. I think Standard and Poors acted like a college of punks. I suspect it's payback for the hard time they got from the government for so badly misjudging the mortgage-backed security disaster.

Yes, they have accelerated their slide into irrelevance.

I am not sure how many others have made this comment, but one needs to wonder why the public has to be bothered by a company that was perhaps incompetent if not possibly unethical when rating the mortgage securities a couple of years ago. what makes them noteworthy this time?

[charityneedshelp]

I will follow my IPS AA and rebalance as necessary

Let's stay stocks and bonds both get crushed. How are you rebalancing?