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The Hartford's longevity insurance: WHERE can I get a quote?
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nisiprius



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 8:16 am    Post subject: The Hartford's longevity insurance: WHERE can I get a quote? Reply with quote

Another thread mentioned longevity insurance... summary appended below.

Has anyone succeeded in reaching an actual agent who knows about The Hartford's "Income Security" product and knows how to give estimates and quotes for it?

Don't want a discussion of the pros and cons... I don't want to reject the idea until I have some details and numbers, though I think in the end I will probably decide against it. But even if it were an intrinsically lackluster product, if there were an option to buy a relatively small amount, say $10,000 worth, just to add a late-life "kicker" to the income stream, I think I'd do it.

I'm getting frustrated.

I've found the product at their website,
http://www.hartfordinvestor.co....2FFullPage
read the sketchy descriptions, and downloaded the brochures, InvFacilityCare.pdf, InvHISFacts.pdf, InvPreparetolive.pdf The brochures have the obligatory pictures of silver-haired yet hot couples smiling and eye-twinkling at each other while riding bicycles on beaches. You just know what's gonna happen when they get back from their ride, don't you?

The Hartford seems to be working quite hard at impeding me from buying. I'm getting what I at this point I can only describe as a runaround.

It has some features which might be gimmicky or might be worthwhile... depending a great deal on how much they cost. Their illustrations include a "return of principal" option, which I don't particularly want unless it's practically free, which it probably is. They don't include any of their complex family of nursing-home-care options--the general theme is that payments can start when you reach the specified age or earlier if you enter a nursing home.

I have LTCI but a little extra couldn't hurt. I suspect it will turn out that these are very expensive options. Also they are at some pains to emphasize that what they are providing is "not LTCI" and I'm not sure what gotchas are hiding behind that phrase.

The Hartford has no direct sales; I have found nobody at the main office who will tell me details first and hand me over to an agent later; they pretend that any of their agents should know all about it and won't refer me to one based on anything but ZIP code. (And that's after the initial runaround. When I asked for information on the "The Hartford Income Security" I was initially transferred to their car insurance department, and the car insurance department... transferred me to their mutual fund department!)

I called the number they gave me at the local A. G. Edwards office (seemed appropriate, Aged Wards, get it?), and got a gruff voice wanting to know "who gave you this number." He was a Wealth Advisory Panjandrum who didn't want to waste time on people that didn't already have big accounts there. (In fact my impression is that the A. G. Edwardses of the world aren't very interested in selling insurance to people who don't have accounts with them). He referred me to someone who was on vacation. That person called me back, but had never even heard of "The Hartford Income Security," asked me what it was, said he'd find out about it and get back to me, called back three days later to say he was still trying and thought he me might be able to tell me more in a week or two!

(Quite a contrast with my experience with both Vanguard and Fidelity so far. The people I've gotten when I called 800-522-5555 or 800-493-3004, respectively, are sharp, seem to know everything about their products and have all the details at the tip of the fingers... Fidelity's rep knew exactly what The Hartford Income Security was, but, alas, said that they offer some of The Hartford's products, but not that one.)

From previous threads:

Someone pointed out that Berkshire Hathaway's EZ-quote page, http://www.brkdirect.com/spia/EZQUOTE.ASP, allows quotations with starting dates in the distant future, thus a very pure form of longevity insurance. Minimum purchase is $40,000, though.

[quote="bob90245"][quote="Bob K."]
rschreit wrote:

...the product known as longevity insurance may appeal to retirees who want to insure the risk of living after age 85 or so. Longevity insurance is a new product, not widely sold, and purchase rates may come down with more competition....

More Dollars Later In Life : A longevity policy allows you to spend more freely in retirement

Longevity Annuity: An Annuity for Everyone?

Retirement Income You'll Never Outlive : New policies promise a big payoff -- if you live long enough to collect.
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sscritic



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 9:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Have you tried an independent insurance agent in your town? As you say, Harford does not have direct sales. If I wanted an insurance product, I wouldn't call A.G. Edwards as my first choice.

If you find an agency that carries The Hartford products, you are probably better off walking in the door and talking face to face with the agent. The agent will have a better sense that there might be a sale in the future and work harder to get the information you want.
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nisiprius



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sscritic wrote:
Have you tried an independent insurance agent in your town? As you say, Harford does not have direct sales. If I wanted an insurance product, I wouldn't call A.G. Edwards as my first choice.

If you find an agency that carries The Hartford products, you are probably better off walking in the door and talking face to face with the agent. The agent will have a better sense that there might be a sale in the future and work harder to get the information you want.

(Shrug) When I asked The Hartford who offered their products, the word I used was, in fact, agents. They referred me to three brokerages. (I don't remember what the others besides A. G. Edwards were). Isn't there some better way to find agents that represent The Hartford then to start calling them at random and asking?
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tfb



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nisiprius wrote:
Isn't there some better way to find agents that represent The Hartford then to start calling them at random and asking?


What about this "find an agent" form on their website? You don't have to enter your real contact info. Just make up some and use the real zip code.

http://sb.thehartford.com/find_insurance_agent/

By the way an insurance brokerage is just like an agent. It's not the same as brokerage firms for investments, which are also called broker-dealers.
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RiskAverse



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

tfb wrote:
nisiprius wrote:
Isn't there some better way to find agents that represent The Hartford then to start calling them at random and asking?


What about this "find an agent" form on their website? You don't have to enter your real contact info. Just make up some and use the real zip code.

http://sb.thehartford.com/find_insurance_agent/

By the way an insurance brokerage is just like an agent. It's not the same as brokerage firms for investments, which are also called broker-dealers.


The deal is that pretty much all stockbrokers are licensed to sell insurance, and then appointed to sell insurance with various insurco's. The insurco's that target brokerage business in general take great pains to protect that relationship. Hence the referal to AG Edwards.

For liability/business reasons, the stock brokerages only allow their representatives, to sell insurance to existing customers with few exceptions.

Life agents are licensed to sell insurance, and may be licensed to sell securities. Generally many insurance agents are licensed and appointed to sell multiple product lines.

Some agents are "captive", e.g if you talk to an New York Life agent, he's only going to offer NYL products. Others are independant, and are appointed with multiple carriers. The independant agents are the best, if you have a tricky case that may need to be shopped around.

E.g not all life insurance companies will underwrite the same way, so for certain medical conditions/histories it pays to shop around.
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nisiprius



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 3:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RiskAverse wrote:
tfb wrote:
nisiprius wrote:
Isn't there some better way to find agents that represent The Hartford then to start calling them at random and asking?


What about this "find an agent" form on their website? You don't have to enter your real contact info. Just make up some and use the real zip code.

http://sb.thehartford.com/find_insurance_agent/

By the way an insurance brokerage is just like an agent. It's not the same as brokerage firms for investments, which are also called broker-dealers.


The deal is that pretty much all stockbrokers are licensed to sell insurance, and then appointed to sell insurance with various insurco's. The insurco's that target brokerage business in general take great pains to protect that relationship. Hence the referal to AG Edwards.

For liability/business reasons, the stock brokerages only allow their representatives, to sell insurance to existing customers with few exceptions.

Life agents are licensed to sell insurance, and may be licensed to sell securities. Generally many insurance agents are licensed and appointed to sell multiple product lines.

Some agents are "captive", e.g if you talk to an New York Life agent, he's only going to offer NYL products. Others are independant, and are appointed with multiple carriers. The independant agents are the best, if you have a tricky case that may need to be shopped around.

E.g not all life insurance companies will underwrite the same way, so for certain medical conditions/histories it pays to shop around.


Thanks. That "find an agent" link turns up one of the two big local agents in town... 0.28 miles from where my butt is parked as I write this... I'll give them a try. We'll begin by finding out how email-savvy they are!

(It's too bad that I happen to have my car and home insurance with the other of the two big local agents!)
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RiskAverse



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nisiprius wrote:
RiskAverse wrote:
tfb wrote:
nisiprius wrote:
Isn't there some better way to find agents that represent The Hartford then to start calling them at random and asking?


What about this "find an agent" form on their website? You don't have to enter your real contact info. Just make up some and use the real zip code.

http://sb.thehartford.com/find_insurance_agent/

By the way an insurance brokerage is just like an agent. It's not the same as brokerage firms for investments, which are also called broker-dealers.


The deal is that pretty much all stockbrokers are licensed to sell insurance, and then appointed to sell insurance with various insurco's. The insurco's that target brokerage business in general take great pains to protect that relationship. Hence the referal to AG Edwards.

For liability/business reasons, the stock brokerages only allow their representatives, to sell insurance to existing customers with few exceptions.

Life agents are licensed to sell insurance, and may be licensed to sell securities. Generally many insurance agents are licensed and appointed to sell multiple product lines.

Some agents are "captive", e.g if you talk to an New York Life agent, he's only going to offer NYL products. Others are independant, and are appointed with multiple carriers. The independant agents are the best, if you have a tricky case that may need to be shopped around.

E.g not all life insurance companies will underwrite the same way, so for certain medical conditions/histories it pays to shop around.


Thanks. That "find an agent" link turns up one of the two big local agents in town... 0.28 miles from where my butt is parked as I write this... I'll give them a try. We'll begin by finding out how email-savvy they are!

(It's too bad that I happen to have my car and home insurance with the other of the two big local agents!)


All they care about is who is listed as "Agent of Record" on the policy. Laughing

Your car and home agent is probably licensed to sell life insurance/annuities.

Given that what you asking for is a fairly obscure product (although it is one that in theory any life underwriter at the home office could authorise),

Also what you are asking about is more or less the same as buying a Fixed (Variable) Deferred Annuity and then "annuitising" it when you turn 75. So this longevity insurance is really a subset of an existing product(s).
------

The BRK SPIA pricer is fun.


For example, a $100,000 SPIA for a 25yo Male that will start paying in 2047 (when he is 65) will pay out $57,246 per year

But,

A $100,000 SPIA issued today to a 65yo male will only pay out $7,890 per year. To get 57,246 pa you would have to invest $725,533.

So behold the power of compounding and the force of mortality. Very Happy
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nisiprius



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RiskAverse wrote:
The BRK SPIA pricer is fun.


For example, a $100,000 SPIA for a 25yo Male that will start paying in 2047 (when he is 65) will pay out $57,246 per year

But,

A $100,000 SPIA issued today to a 65yo male will only pay out $7,890 per year. To get 57,246 pa you would have to invest $725,533.

So behold the power of compounding and the force of mortality. Very Happy


Try a $100,000 SPIA issued to a 20 year old male to start paying at age 85. "This investment will provide you with $640,908 every year for as long as you live, beginning on March 11, 2072." Now you're talkin'!

It appears, however, that BRK requires a minimum premium of $40,000, wheras The Hartford's brochures talk about a minimum premium of $10,000.

I can see "wasting" $10,000 on a perhaps slightly overpriced insurance product that I will probably never collect on (and that even my wife may well never collect on), in order to add a little bit of a late-life "kicker" to the income stream. A lot can happen in 25 years, and short of death ("Don't think of it as an ending," said Woody Allen, "think of it as really effective way of reducing your expenses") most of them would be things where a little extra money would come in handy.

But $40,000 is too much...
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RiskAverse



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nisiprius wrote:
RiskAverse wrote:
The BRK SPIA pricer is fun.


For example, a $100,000 SPIA for a 25yo Male that will start paying in 2047 (when he is 65) will pay out $57,246 per year

But,

A $100,000 SPIA issued today to a 65yo male will only pay out $7,890 per year. To get 57,246 pa you would have to invest $725,533.

So behold the power of compounding and the force of mortality. Very Happy


Try a $100,000 SPIA issued to a 20 year old male to start paying at age 85. "This investment will provide you with $640,908 every year for as long as you live, beginning on March 11, 2072." Now you're talkin'!

It appears, however, that BRK requires a minimum premium of $40,000, wheras The Hartford's brochures talk about a minimum premium of $10,000.


Mortality really gets grinding around age 75, try walking the SPIA calculator with an investment of $100,000 @ age 65, and see how the payouts start really rising as you get closer to the grave.

E.g

65yo = $7.776
67yo = $8,144
70yo = $8,800
72yo = $9,339
75yo = $10,230

IMHO your best bet is to put away $10,000 into a TIPS fund, and earmark it for bying a SPIA, if you remember to do that when you are 85.
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nisiprius



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 5:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RiskAverse wrote:
IMHO your best bet is to put away $10,000 into a TIPS fund, and earmark it for bying a SPIA, if you remember to do that when you are 85.


I don't think so. I'm going to post something on this when I've got my numbers together a bit more. Many people sort of hate the idea of annuities and there is a common idea here and in investment books that you should wait as long as you can before resorting to them. This seems to be based in part because the annual-payout-as-a-percentage-of-premium increases, and increases sharply in later years.

I'm about 90% sure that if you need an annuity, the benefits are largest if you buy one early. In effect, the "benefit" of annuitization comes from the longer-lived annuitants dividing and sharing the premiums of the shorter-lived annuitants in the pool. There have to be shorter-lived annuitants in that pool to gain that advantage.

To put it another way, if you "need" a particular monthly income and you follow a model of investing a sum of money, withdrawing that income regularly up to a certain age X, then annuitizing enough to provide that income, the total cost obtaining that income stream is always larger than the cost of obtaining the same income stream by annuitizing earlier.

The difference is exactly represented by the difference in your heirs' expectation of inheritance if you die before reaching age X.

As I say, I'm about 90% sure that really is the way it works. When I've got the numbers together in a sufficiently convincing form, I intend to post something about it.
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Valuethinker



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 7:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nisiprius wrote:


I'm about 90% sure that if you need an annuity, the benefits are largest if you buy one early. In effect, the "benefit" of annuitization comes from the longer-lived annuitants dividing and sharing the premiums of the shorter-lived annuitants in the pool. There have to be shorter-lived annuitants in that pool to gain that advantage.


One important factor is the soaring longevity going on. Since 1990, the UK male aged 65 has gained something like 2 months of life expectancy, for every year. I don't know when this will flatten out (I suspect when we get a human version of the H5N1 virus that kills 1% or so of us, which biologists say is almost certain) perhaps due to the declining effects of falling numbers of smokers? (ie most people do give up, now, and particularly most people who are likely to buy annuities).

Combining that with falling long term interest rates, and you can see annuity providers are in something of a pickle.

I would really want to confirm your intuition with a professional actuary, before relying on it. Sorry if that is obvious or stupid advice!

Quote:

To put it another way, if you "need" a particular monthly income and you follow a model of investing a sum of money, withdrawing that income regularly up to a certain age X, then annuitizing enough to provide that income, the total cost obtaining that income stream is always larger than the cost of obtaining the same income stream by annuitizing earlier.


A significant key is the spread between your interest rate, and the interest rate obtainable by the annuity provider.
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mas



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nisiprius wrote:
...
Many people sort of hate the idea of annuities and there is a common idea here and in investment books that you should wait as long as you can before resorting to them.
...
I'm about 90% sure that if you need an annuity, the benefits are largest if you buy one early.
...


The biggest bang for the buck is to buy early, but delay payouts as long as possible. Your example of a 20yr old buying one that starts payments at 85 is the extreme example that shows this.

This is because the actuarial odds of collecting are low, so the payout is high if you do make it. If you wait until you are 85 and buy one that begins payouts immediately. The odds of recouping your premium are higher, and thus the payouts are lower.

If you cannot delay the start of payments, then buying as late as possible is the next best thing.
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mw



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 10:37 am    Post subject: Where can I get A Quote? Reply with quote

I will give you a quote. Contact me so you can provide the information needed to provide a quote. celebrate
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Vig Oren



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HOW SAFE IS YOUR INSURER?.

Here is an excerpt from Wall Street Journal (MAR 2006):


“.....................given the long-term nature of these offerings [of selling investments that behave a lot like a pension] -- you're paying a company now for the promise that it will pay you back decades in the future -- investors need to feel comfortable that the company will still be around in 30 or 50 years. "That can be a big 'if,' " says Joseph Belth, professor emeritus for insurance at Indiana University.

Since the start of 1995, 76 life and health insurance companies have gone out of business, according to Weiss Ratings Inc., which tracks and rates insurance companies. While most failures have been at smaller companies, larger firms also sometimes go under. And when an insurer fails, state-run insurance pools step in to fulfill certain obligations, but investors can have accounts frozen and face other significant hassles."


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RiskAverse



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nisiprius wrote:
RiskAverse wrote:
IMHO your best bet is to put away $10,000 into a TIPS fund, and earmark it for bying a SPIA, if you remember to do that when you are 85.


I don't think so. I'm going to post something on this when I've got my numbers together a bit more. Many people sort of hate the idea of annuities and there is a common idea here and in investment books that you should wait as long as you can before resorting to them. This seems to be based in part because the annual-payout-as-a-percentage-of-premium increases, and increases sharply in later years.

I'm about 90% sure that if you need an annuity, the benefits are largest if you buy one early. In effect, the "benefit" of annuitization comes from the longer-lived annuitants dividing and sharing the premiums of the shorter-lived annuitants in the pool. There have to be shorter-lived annuitants in that pool to gain that advantage.



The point of annuitisation is to shift your longevity risk onto the much larger asset base of the insurance company vs your own asset base.

Mortality is basicly explained by the Gompertz Makeham law

Mortality rate = A+b*e^(gX)

Where:

A = Background death rate
b = Age scaling factor.
g = Age intensity factor.

Basicly, mortality is the sum of the background death rate (getting hit by a bus etc) plus an age related factor. The scaling and intensity factors are related to health (Smoking, obesity, etc).

By integrating this equation, the insurco can figure out the risk of you dying in any given year and span of time.

The probabilty of you dying between age 25-85, 25-86, 25-87, is reasonably high, so the longevity insurances

The PV of an annuity payment is function of both the discount rate *and* the likely hood of you living to get that payment. The sum of those PV's is the cost of the annuities single premium. Let's assume that the insurance company assumes a max age of 105. So 20 level payments, to an 85 year old. Then they need to calculate the PV of $1000 paid to 25year old who may not live to be 85,86,87,...103,104,105

Assuming a 4.76% interest rate (e.g BRK's use of 30y STRIPS) the PV (e.g the present cost) of far off annuity payments is very little owing to the long compounding period *and* the odds of you dying before payment.

The mortality curve is exponential, with the risk of you dying going up each year and increasing at an increasing rate. The odds of you living
65->75 are reasonably good, The odds of living 75-85 are reasonably bad.

The reason I mention earmarking money into a TIPS fund and sitting on it to buy an annuity, is because that is exactly what the insurance company is doing with your initial premium. Except, that if you die early or need the money, it is there for you vs. being locked away in the insurco's general account.
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nisiprius



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RiskAverse wrote:
The reason I mention earmarking money into a TIPS fund and sitting on it to buy an annuity, is because that is exactly what the insurance company is doing with your initial premium. Except, that if you die early or need the money, it is there for you vs. being locked away in the insurco's general account.


The situations are not equivalent.

Let's say I buy longevity insurance (i.e. an annuity whose first payment is long deferred) at 65 with payments starting at age 85. I am now part of a pool of people who have, wisely or foolishly, all done the same thing. The insurance company puts all our premiums into, let's say, TIPS and waits. Because many of us die off before age 85, the insurance company uses the premiums of many annuitants to pay out to a few annuitants. There is what might be called a multiplier factor, and that factor is the reciprocal of the probability of a 65-year-old surviving to age 85, about 5.7X.

Now, let's say that a bunch of people all put their money into TIPS, wait until age 80, and with the intention of buying annuities that start paying out at age 85. During that time, some of them die and leave the pool. The money that would have gone into the pool, hence lost to those annuitants, hence gained by the insurance company and (potentially!) the other annuitants, instead goes to their heirs. Money has left the pool. Now, when the remaining people in the pool buy their annuities, the multiplier factor is only the reciprocal of the probability of an 80-year-old surviving to age 85, only about 1.86.

The multiplier factor that arises from annuitants dying out and losing their premiums to the pool is separate, and is in addition to what might be called the "compression factor" in which annuities that start later pay out a higher percentage of premium per annum because they are paying it out over a statistically shorter number of years.

In both cases, we have an annuity that starts paying out at age 85 so the payments are spread across the area-under-the-Gompertz-curve, so that "payout compression factor" is equal.

I may be missing something, which is why I say I'll post more when I'm surer of my ground, but I don't see how "investing the money yourself and buy an annuity later" is equivalent to "buy an annuity early" unless you assume that you can obtain a much higher return than the insurance company, or unless you assume that the insurance company is going to make a payout that is much worse than than actuarially fair.

As nearly as I can tell, people seem to keep missing the (unpleasant) point that you can't benefit from the pool of people who die young unless you yourself are in that pool and thus incur the risk of dying young yourself and losing your premium to other annuitants (instead of passing it on to your heirs).

Annuities involve a transfer of funds from the shorter-lived annuitants to the longer-lived annuitants, with the insurance company being trusted to hold the stakes. There's no way for an individual to duplicate this effect by himself.

I think.
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Vig Oren



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Deleted my post for re-editing but there is no Undo to put it back. So it's gone. Also, I don't like the way nisiprius quoted by cherry picking into it and thus scrambling the content. IMO, you either quote as is or not at all.

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Quasimodo



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tontine

John
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nisiprius



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vig Oren wrote:
nisiprius, see if the following jibes with your assumptions. I wrote it a couple of years ago, for naive posters on SPIAs. Disregard any that does not relate.

4) SPIAs are God- sent to retirees who have not saved enough.

I have always figured SPIAs into my retirement plans or the equivalent thereof (TIAA "Lifetime Income" option), so in my case I'd say I took them into account in judging what was "enough."
Quote:
5) Best is to postpone buying SPIAs to older age and ladder the purchases. Since you pay less for same payouts as you age (interest rate staying constant) buy a portion at a time.

Well, that's exactly the thing I'm struggling with. That's the conventional wisdom. I'm thinking the conventional wisdom is wrong.

Case A: If you annuitize $100,000 at 65 and die at 66, your heirs get nothing.

Case B: If you invest your money at 65 and make regular withdrawals from the proceeds, with the intention of annuitizing at 80, and you die at 66, your heirs get almost $100,000.

I'm thinking that has simply got to mean that in case B there's less in the pool for the survivors to draw from and the effectiveness of the annuity has got to be less. I think case B is trying to have it both ways: have your legacy cake and eat your annuity, too. The benefit of the annuity to the annuitant, over investments, comes, statistically, from redirecting to yourself money that would normally go to your heirs.

But I'm not sure.
Quote:
7) "Medicaid annuities" could escape being "countable assets" to qualify for Medicaid.

I think that whole thing is a major, major can of worms. I'd turn it around: is Medicaid a reason to be cautious about buying an annuity?

At the moment, "medicaid annuities" are rare and, I think, a wee bit suspect. I have long-term-care insurance but, yeah, I guess I'd like to understand better exactly what happens if

a) you have an annuity that is a countable Medicaid asset

b) you are in a nursing home

c) your savings are gone and your long-term-care insurance plus your annuity are not enough to pay the nursing home.

I guess in case c you redesignate the annuity to make the government the beneficiary or something?


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nisiprius



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quasimodo wrote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tontine

And here I thought the "Tontine" was the bell they rung at Lloyds.

So, something I never thought about: do the insurance companies send out hit squads after long-lived annuitants?
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Quasimodo



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nisiprius wrote:

"So, something I never thought about: do the insurance companies send out hit squads after long-lived annuitants?"

That would be unethical. They send agents with brochures instead!

John
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RiskAverse



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nisiprius wrote:

I may be missing something, which is why I say I'll post more when I'm surer of my ground, but I don't see how "investing the money yourself and buy an annuity later" is equivalent to "buy an annuity early" unless you assume that you can obtain a much higher return than the insurance company, or unless you assume that the insurance company is going to make a payout that is much worse than than actuarially fair.


I don't think that the payout is much worse than actuarially fair, I know it.
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RiskAverse



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nisiprius wrote:
Quasimodo wrote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tontine

And here I thought the "Tontine" was the bell they rung at Lloyds.

So, something I never thought about: do the insurance companies send out hit squads after long-lived annuitants?


Nope, just greedy relatives. Twisted Evil
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tc101



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would never do business with Hartford. I had an annuity with them that my father got me when I was a kid. I wanted to move it to Vanguard. Hartford did everything they could to delay that. They lied to me again and again. Eventually I called the state insurance commissioner and they finally moved the money but I would never trust them.
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rschreit



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 7:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="nisiprius]Let's say I buy longevity insurance (i.e. an annuity whose first payment is long deferred) at 65 with payments starting at age 85. I am now part of a pool of people who have, wisely or foolishly, all done the same thing. The insurance company puts all our premiums into, let's say, TIPS and waits. Because many of us die off before age 85, the insurance company uses the premiums of many annuitants to pay out to a few annuitants. There is what might be called a multiplier factor, and that factor is the reciprocal of the probability of a 65-year-old surviving to age 85, about 5.7X.

. . . I may be missing something, which is why I say I'll post more when I'm surer of my ground, but I don't see how "investing the money yourself and buy an annuity later" is equivalent to "buy an annuity early" unless you assume that you can obtain a much higher return than the insurance company, or unless you assume that the insurance company is going to make a payout that is much worse than than actuarially fair.

As nearly as I can tell, people seem to keep missing the (unpleasant) point that you can't benefit from the pool of people who die young unless you yourself are in that pool and thus incur the risk of dying young yourself and losing your premium to other annuitants (instead of passing it on to your heirs).

Annuities involve a transfer of funds from the shorter-lived annuitants to the longer-lived annuitants, with the insurance company being trusted to hold the stakes. There's no way for an individual to duplicate this effect by himself.

I think[/quote]

As an actuary, I'd call that a good explanation of how annuities work. Each year that the annuitant survives provides him/her an extra "survival return," (multiplier) on top of the investment return, derived from the other annuitants who didn't survive that year.

But don't forget the ER. Each year the insurer takes out its costs of doing business for admin, marketing, risk-bearing, taxes, profits. Call it "not actuarially fair," or "no free lunch," but the insurer's implicit ER is a fact of life in any form of insurance. That's why you should usually self-insure any risks that you can afford to cover out-of-pocket.

While the annuitant is still fairly young and mortality rates are low (i.e., annual survival rates are high), the ER offsets much of the survival return. So the annuitant isn't getting paid much for taking the risk of not surviving another year and thereby losing his/her investment in the annuity. That's one reason why it may pay to self-insure the early years, up to about age 80 or so, before buying an annuity.

Other reasons for waiting until an advanced age to buy a fixed annuity:

1. You have less reason to be concerned about inflation or insurer solvency, because fewer years of lifespan remain

2. You may have less ability to manage your own investments and be ready to commit some assets to an insurer.
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rschreit



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 7:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="nisiprius]Let's say I buy longevity insurance (i.e. an annuity whose first payment is long deferred) at 65 with payments starting at age 85. I am now part of a pool of people who have, wisely or foolishly, all done the same thing. The insurance company puts all our premiums into, let's say, TIPS and waits. Because many of us die off before age 85, the insurance company uses the premiums of many annuitants to pay out to a few annuitants. There is what might be called a multiplier factor, and that factor is the reciprocal of the probability of a 65-year-old surviving to age 85, about 5.7X.

. . . I may be missing something, which is why I say I'll post more when I'm surer of my ground, but I don't see how "investing the money yourself and buy an annuity later" is equivalent to "buy an annuity early" unless you assume that you can obtain a much higher return than the insurance company, or unless you assume that the insurance company is going to make a payout that is much worse than than actuarially fair.

As nearly as I can tell, people seem to keep missing the (unpleasant) point that you can't benefit from the pool of people who die young unless you yourself are in that pool and thus incur the risk of dying young yourself and losing your premium to other annuitants (instead of passing it on to your heirs).

Annuities involve a transfer of funds from the shorter-lived annuitants to the longer-lived annuitants, with the insurance company being trusted to hold the stakes. There's no way for an individual to duplicate this effect by himself.

I think[/quote]

As an actuary, I'd call that a good explanation of how annuities work. Each year that the annuitant survives provides him/her an extra "survival return," (multiplier) on top of the investment return, derived from the other annuitants who didn't survive that year.

But don't forget the ER. Each year the insurer takes out its costs of doing business for admin, marketing, risk-bearing, taxes, profits. Call it "not actuarially fair," or "no free lunch," but the insurer's implicit ER is a fact of life in any form of insurance. That's why you should usually self-insure any risks that you can afford to cover out-of-pocket.

While the annuitant is still fairly young and mortality rates are low (i.e., annual survival rates are high), the ER offsets much of the survival return. So the annuitant isn't getting paid much for taking the risk of not surviving another year and thereby losing his/her investment in the annuity. That's one reason why it may pay to self-insure the early years, up to about age 80 or so, before buying an annuity.

Other reasons for waiting until an advanced age to buy a fixed annuity:

1. You have less reason to be concerned about inflation or insurer solvency, because fewer years of lifespan remain

2. You may have less ability to manage your own investments and be ready to commit some assets to an insurer.
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nisiprius



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rschreit wrote:
As an actuary, I'd call that a good explanation of how annuities work. Each year that the annuitant survives provides him/her an extra "survival return," (multiplier) on top of the investment return, derived from the other annuitants who didn't survive that year.

But don't forget the ER. Each year the insurer takes out its costs of doing business for admin, marketing, risk-bearing, taxes, profits. Call it "not actuarially fair," or "no free lunch," but the insurer's implicit ER is a fact of life in any form of insurance. That's why you should usually self-insure any risks that you can afford to cover out-of-pocket.

While the annuitant is still fairly young and mortality rates are low (i.e., annual survival rates are high), the ER offsets much of the survival return. So the annuitant isn't getting paid much for taking the risk of not surviving another year and thereby losing his/her investment in the annuity. That's one reason why it may pay to self-insure the early years, up to about age 80 or so, before buying an annuity.

Other reasons for waiting until an advanced age to buy a fixed annuity:

1. You have less reason to be concerned about inflation or insurer solvency, because fewer years of lifespan remain

2. You may have less ability to manage your own investments and be ready to commit some assets to an insurer.


Yes, but buying an annuity must always be compared against other choices of possible actions, and at least some of these considerations cancel out.

Inflation is only a factor in the sense that it makes it difficult to size the annuity because you don't know how many dollars' income you'll need twenty-five years into the future. It affects every other long-term investment as well. You can deal with it by buying TIPS, but you can also deal with it by buying a CPI-adjusted annuity.

Incidentally, the availability of TIPS in the any desired durations and maturities is by no means a certainty. There was a brief period during the Clinton surplus years--a friend of mine likes to tweak Republicans by calling it the "golden era of Clinton prosperity"--when very few TIPS were issued. 20-year TIPS are still issued infrequently. I don't know if you can buy a 10-year TIPS with 100% certainty that when it matures another 10-year TIPS will be available to roll it over into.

"Ability to manage your own investments" is a factor at any age. Seriously, I have wondered about how to manage the mental decline which, regardless of whether it's polite to say it, seems to be a very common event during the aging process. I think I want my investments on autopilot well before I start to lose my marbles. If I reach the point where I can't calculate my asset allocation and am starting to be intrigued by investment opportunities presented to me by cold callers on the telephone, I'm not sure I'll be in good shape to review how the annuity I'm buying meshes in with the Medicaid laws.

Waiting assumes that there are alternatives that are obviously much better than an annuity. It's by no means clear to me that ultrasafe, conservative investments like a TIPS ladder are all that much better.

I don't trust insurance companies, but I don't trust banks, brokerages, Social Security or the U. S. Treasury either. And I certainly don't trust my own ability to secure an average real return of much more than 3% over the next thirty years, particularly since my hunch is that stocks are overvalued and will decline when all of us boomers try to sell at the same time.

There seems to be a certain amount of anti-insurance animus on this forum and I'm not quite sure where it comes from, unless people suspect me of being a shill for an insurance company (I am not).

I'm in the process of trying to absorb Babbel and Merrill's (2007) Rational Decumulation, linked from the Library section of the forum. It seems to have more useful things to say about insurer defaults than anything else I've yet seen, and it doesn't sound too terrible. I take it that it happens, but it hasn't been all that bad when it has happened.

This in particular caught my eye: "Second, if a default is going to occur, it occurs on average about 25 years after the annuity purchase from an insurer with a claims paying rating of single-A at the outset. By that time, an annuity worth $590,000 at initial purchase (i.e., 59% of initial wealth) will have only about $198,000 of present value of payments remaining, so the guaranty of $100,000 looms large."

I'd been figuring that I should spread my annuity purchases among more than one company and try to keep the amount down to (say) $120,000, but on the basis of their remarks, somewhat larger amounts (and fewer companies) would seem reasonable.

Incidentally, with regard to "actuarially fair" I did a homebrew spreadsheet calculation with a mortality table--no idea if it was the right one--and the numbers I came up with were within striking distance of those that Berkshire Hathaway actually offers. Of course, I based it on the assumption of the underlying interest rate that BRK quotes; maybe they quote one interest rate and really invest in something that pays a lot more? I wouldn't know. On the face of it, it wasn't bad; I got something like within 5-10% of their numbers. Pretty high compared with a Vanguard fund expense ratio, but it didn't appear to me that they were pocketing a third or a half of the premiums or anything like that.
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Vig Oren



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lost the message that was here and there is no Undo in the Edit.
Anyway, the current discussion about nixing annuity for a better "investment" has been discussed on M* board adnauseum for years. But the facts are that there are investors that for them an annuity would be the right financial planning approach and there are those who it wouldn't. Same with buying an LTCI vs. self insuring, etc. So what's new under the sun? Read Larry Swedroe's new book on it.


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RiskAverse



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nisiprius wrote:


Waiting assumes that there are alternatives that are obviously much better than an annuity. It's by no means clear to me that ultrasafe, conservative investments like a TIPS ladder are all that much better.


Owning the T-Bills/TIPS for yourself means you don't have to pay for the actuary's Rolex and the shareholder's dividend.

Untill the annuity kicks in, the insurco is holding your initial premium + valuation adjustments in the general account while skimming off a few bp of profit.
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rschreit



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vig Oren wrote:
Most actuaries are weak when it comes to investments. Take my son who is XXXX, FSA, MAAA, Director, Health & Welfare, and who made lots of stupid mistakes with his 401(k). What bothers me is that he would not listen to me Sad


LOL. One actuary seems like a small data set, maybe an outlier despite good bloodlines.

All actuaries learn basics of investing, some specialize in investments. Anyone who likes the TSP can thank actuaries for making it possible.
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nisiprius



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RiskAverse wrote:
nisiprius wrote:


Waiting assumes that there are alternatives that are obviously much better than an annuity. It's by no means clear to me that ultrasafe, conservative investments like a TIPS ladder are all that much better.


Owning the T-Bills/TIPS for yourself means you don't have to pay for the actuary's Rolex and the shareholder's dividend.

Untill the annuity kicks in, the insurco is holding your initial premium + valuation adjustments in the general account while skimming off a few bp of profit.

Yes, but if I wait, during the time before I've bought the annuity I'm not benefitting from the short-lived people in the annuity pool with me, because I'm not in the annuity pool.

The insurer is not just taking an investment I could easily make for myself, packaging it up in a pretty way, and charging outrageously for it. The insurer is doing something I cannot do on my own because it involves pooling many people... and charging outrageously for it. Unlike a load fund, it is at least perfectly clear what the insurer is providing for me, and it is perfectly clear that it is valuable. The question is, how valuable... and how to weigh it against loss of control, expenses, etc.

An annuity takes a pool of insurers' premiums and puts a leakproof envelope around them that makes sure that the annuitant's heirs get nothing. There's no way to do that by yourself. And while it may seem selfish... seem, heck, it is selfish... it's not as if you were providing for your heirs because without the annuity, the amount of money they receive is highly unpredictable. Think of English novels with all the sons and daughters waiting and hoping desperately for their dad to kick the bucket. If you want to provide for your heirs, better to put a fixed sum aside for your heirs and buy an annuity for yourself. Or better yet, give them money while you're alive.

Of course the insurer is going to be making the same investments that the annuitants could easily for themselves as individuals. And of course the annuitants could make those investments with more flexibility and far lower costs. What they can't do is provide that envelope, and the envelope means the annuitants as a group will surely receive more for themselves than if they had invested the premiums themselves. Because their heirs will receive less.

Within that envelope, the annuity also redistributes premiums from the short-lived annuitants to the longer-lived annuitants. That's statistically a wash, but it is extremely useful precisely because it provides a constant lifetime stream of income regardless of your lifespan.

An annuity is not just a way for an insurer to take money from you for doing what you could easily do for yourself.

I have numbers, but I'm fiddling with trying to figure out the clearest example... and the calculations need a clear head and I'm not sure I'm quite clearheaded enough yet. But I invite you to try it for yourself.

Pick out a monthly income, say $1000/month, and a starting age, say 65. Pick a "annuity waiting age," say 85. Get quotes for CPI-adjusted annuities for ages 65 and 85 from Vanguard's website. The age-65 premium will of course be much larger than the age-85 premium.

Scenario A: buy a CPI-adjusted annuity at age 65 that yields $1000/month and note the premium.

Scenario B: take that much smaller age-85 premium, call it X, and invest it in TIPS. By age 85, its redemption value will have grown to the right size to yield an inflation-adjusted $1000/month when used to purchase an age-85 annuity. During those twenty years, it will pay out income, but much less than $1000/month. Let's say its $200/month. We need to make up the $800/month difference between ages 65 and 85. So, we calculate Y, the present value of that twenty-year income stream. We use that to buy additional TIPS.

Between age 65 and 85, investment X is growing and throwing off (say) $200/month inflation-adjusted income. We draw $800/month inflation-adjusted income from investment Y, drawing it down. At age 85, investment Y has exactly reached zero, while investment X is exactly the right size to buy an annuity that will yield $1000 year-2007-equvalent per month.

If you try it, I think you'll find, as I do, that X + Y is significantly larger than the premium you have to pay if you start the annuity at age 65.

My rough results are that it costs about $200,000 to buy the annuity at age 65, and it costs about $250,000 to follow scenario B instead. Unless I've screwed up the calculations.

I used actual insurance company quotations. They're skimming whatever they're skimming. The point is not to compare the insurance company against a mythical actuarially fair insurance company, but to figure out what's the best way to make use of real insurance companies.

And, if I haven't screwed up, it does seem to cost fewer dollars to buy the annuity at age 65 than to wait until age 85 and invest in TIPS in the meantime. 20% less, in fact. Not a giant amount, but not chickenfeed, either.

(Since the purpose of an annuity is to reduce risk, it seems appropriate to assume something conservative like TIPS as the investment vehicle to use in making the comparison. Obviously, someone who is totally confident of their ability to obtain a real return of 10% in the stock market isn't going to be messing around with annuities at all.)
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bob90245



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nisiprius wrote:
An annuity takes a pool of insurers' premiums and puts a leakproof envelope around them that makes sure that the annuitant's heirs get nothing.

Just as a refresher, I'll repeat what Taylor Larimore wrote HERE:

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Quote:
This is in contrast with an immediate annuity. With this product, one's heirs will get nothing. If I am mistaken on any of this, please correct me.


Most, immediate annuities have options. These include:

1. Refund option guarantees payments equal to original premium.

2. 10-year option guarantees payments for 10 years if the annuitant dies earlier

3. 20-year option guarantees payments for 20 years if the annuitant dies earlier.

Of course, each of these options reduces the guaranteed monthly lifetime income. But the bottom line is that most annuities CAN provide payments to heirs if the annuitant dies early.

Best wishes.
Taylor

It would be interesting to see how each option reduces the monthly income from an immediate annuity without said options.
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Vig Oren



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

More on annuities:

http://www.financial-planning.....01023.html


Annuities Special: The Right Rider

"Boomers want guaranteed lifetime income, but don't want to buy an immediate annuity. Variable annuity issuers think they have a solution."

It also says:

“The Hartford, a leading issuer of GMWBs, says that about 70% of its variable annuity customers elect some sort of guaranteed withdrawal benefit. “

Does Vanguard sell such annuities? Surprised
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tc101



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Someone asked in a private message about why I said Hartford lied to me in an earlier post. I'll put my response here so everyone can read it:

It was Hartford, not the local agent. It was the department that transfers annuities. I say they lied because again and again they would say they were going to send the annuity to Vanguard at a certain date, then it would not be sent, then I would call back and they would apologize and say it would be sent at some other future date and the cycle repeated itself. If this only happened one or two times it might be incompetence, but it happened so many times it was obviously a deliberate attempt to delay the transfer. It was your standard "The check is in the mail" routine. When I contacted my state insurance commissioner they did the transfer.

It was an old annuity my father had bought for me in the 60's and it had a very low return, so it was to their advantage to delay transfer as long as possible. It was done in such a way that I am almost certain it was company policy, although I can't prove that.
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Vig Oren



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rschreit, OT

1)You wrote:

“LOL. One actuary seems like a small data set, maybe an outlier despite good bloodlines”

Question: If you are an actuary, are my son’s designations worth anything, FSA, MAAA, Director, Health & Welfare?

2) Is nisiprius from Cyprius? Rolling Eyes
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rschreit



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 5:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vig Oren wrote:
Rschreit, OT

Question: If you are an actuary, are my son’s designations worth anything, FSA, MAAA, Director, Health & Welfare?


Yes. But H&W guys aren't all investment gurus too.
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Vig Oren



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rschreit,

IMO, those actuaries who deal with insurance underwriting, be it life (& annuities), health, property, etc., and even pensions ala Hewitt, know very little about stock market investing. What's your take?
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rschreit



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 7:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vig Oren wrote:
rschreit,

IMO, those actuaries who deal with insurance underwriting, be it life (& annuities), health, property, etc., and even pensions ala Hewitt, know very little about stock market investing. What's your take?


You may be right. But they generally know what's important and will learn whatever they need.
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nisiprius



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bob90245 wrote:
nisiprius wrote:
An annuity takes a pool of insurers' premiums and puts a leakproof envelope around them that makes sure that the annuitant's heirs get nothing.

Just as a refresher, I'll repeat what Taylor Larimore wrote HERE:

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Quote:
This is in contrast with an immediate annuity. With this product, one's heirs will get nothing. If I am mistaken on any of this, please correct me.


Most, immediate annuities have options. These include:

1. Refund option guarantees payments equal to original premium.

2. 10-year option guarantees payments for 10 years if the annuitant dies earlier

3. 20-year option guarantees payments for 20 years if the annuitant dies earlier.

Of course, each of these options reduces the guaranteed monthly lifetime income. But the bottom line is that most annuities CAN provide payments to heirs if the annuitant dies early.

Best wishes.
Taylor

It would be interesting to see how each option reduces the monthly income from an immediate annuity without said options.


In the early sixties, you can get a ten or fifteen year "term certain" practically for free... it has very, very little effect on the premium or payouts. A twenty year term certain starts to cost a bit.
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RiskAverse



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 10:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vig Oren wrote:
rschreit,

IMO, those actuaries who deal with insurance underwriting, be it life (& annuities), health, property, etc., and even pensions ala Hewitt, know very little about stock market investing. What's your take?


It doesn't matter if they are smart enough to buy shares in an insurance company with good actuaries. Very Happy

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?....;c=%5EGSPC
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RiskAverse



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 10:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nisiprius wrote:
RiskAverse wrote:
nisiprius wrote:


Waiting assumes that there are alternatives that are obviously much better than an annuity. It's by no means clear to me that ultrasafe, conservative investments like a TIPS ladder are all that much better.


Owning the T-Bills/TIPS for yourself means you don't have to pay for the actuary's Rolex and the shareholder's dividend.

Untill the annuity kicks in, the insurco is holding your initial premium + valuation adjustments in the general account while skimming off a few bp of profit.

Yes, but if I wait, during the time before I've bought the annuity I'm not benefitting from the short-lived people in the annuity pool with me, because I'm not in the annuity pool.


I see your point, but I'm not sure you are profiting that much from in-pool mortality. Since by the time it starts to really kick in, there is a reasonable chance you'll be dead.

OTH if you keep the assets in your hands, they can pass to your heirs should you die early and you can access them in case something important happens (such a mortality accelrating illness or accident Twisted Evil ).

Untill you cross say age 68, the boost from in pool mortality probably isn't that much.

If all you are going to do is buy a $10,000 Longevity Policy for fun , I don't think it matters much.
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mephistophles



Joined: 27 Mar 2007
Posts: 1503

PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:56 pm    Post subject: WHY BUY ANNUITIES? Reply with quote

I am a licensed insurance and annuity salesman. I am considered, by many in my area, to be an expert in these products as I have about four succesful decades of expereience in these areas.

I conclude that annuities are generally not needed by the investing and insuring public. I never sell annuities where they are not needed. I willingly and happily forego these rich and easy commissions in order to better serve my clientele.

IMHO the endless annuity threads on this forum are largely unnecessary and mostly unproductive. I know that several top Diehards own annuities and that this product was a good choice in their unique situations.

Regards,

ole meph
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Vig Oren



Joined: 09 May 2007
Posts: 818
Location: NC (near Raleigh)

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 8:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

meph, could it be that the low interest in SPIAs is b/c of the broker's low commissions on it? Also, what about the possibility that Congress will act on exempting tax on SPIAs should boomers agree to annuitize their stocks/bonds nest eggs? Rolling Eyes
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bob90245



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3616

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 9:28 am    Post subject: Re: WHY BUY ANNUITIES? Reply with quote

mephistophles wrote:
I am a licensed insurance and annuity salesman. I am considered, by many in my area, to be an expert in these products as I have about four succesful decades of expereience in these areas.

I conclude that annuities are generally not needed by the investing and insuring public. I never sell annuities where they are not needed. I willingly and happily forego these rich and easy commissions in order to better serve my clientele.

IMHO the endless annuity threads on this forum are largely unnecessary and mostly unproductive. I know that several top Diehards own annuities and that this product was a good choice in their unique situations.

Regards,

ole meph

I respectfully disagree. Rather than finding annuity threads largely unnecessary and mostly unproductive, I find them to be quite interesting and educational. I find the topic of using annuities as supplementary income in retirement with the possibility of improving portfolio survivability to be quite intriguing. It is a topic I have devoted much time, study and web space (HERE and HERE) these past several months.
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Taylor Larimore
Moderator


Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Posts: 7851
Location: Miami Florida

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 9:51 am    Post subject: Bob/olde meph -- Annuities Reply with quote

Hi Bob:

Quote:
It is a topic (annuities) I have devoted much time, study and web space (HERE and HERE) these past several months.


Your time has been well spent. You have done a remarkable job of gathering information and providing links to help us understand the complex world of annuities.

Thank also to ole meph who continues to provide sound and reliable information about annuities and life insurance.

Best wishes.
Taylor
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sscritic



Joined: 06 Sep 2007
Posts: 2629

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 10:14 am    Post subject: Original Post Reply with quote

On Sunday, nisiprius wrote:

Quote:
Thanks. That "find an agent" link turns up one of the two big local agents in town... 0.28 miles from where my butt is parked as I write this... I'll give them a try.


It's now Wednesday. Please give us an update on your attempt to get a quote.
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nisiprius



Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Posts: 7671
Location: North America; Western Hemisphere; the Earth; the Solar System; the Universe; the Mind of God

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sscritic wrote:
Please give us an update on your attempt to get a quote.
OK.

1) Nobody from A. G. Edwards has called me back yet.

2) My big local insurance agent hasn't replied to my email. Like many places, particularly smallish businesses, there are a few that actually use email, but a lot that publish email addresses yet apparently never read their mail. I will contact them by other channels in due course.

3) As you see, user mw, "Joined: 10 Sep 2007, Posts: 1" offered above to give me a quote. Since I don't know him you might say we're in a courtship stage and at the moment I'm playing hard-to-get, because although he has given me his name, address, and phone (which check out in an online directory), he hasn't yet given me the name of his business, (and he doesn't show up in The Hartford's "find an agent" search). UPDATE: He has emailed me PDF's of two quotations... which I need to review.


Last edited by nisiprius on Wed Sep 12, 2007 11:36 am; edited 4 times in total
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nisiprius



Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Posts: 7671
Location: North America; Western Hemisphere; the Earth; the Solar System; the Universe; the Mind of God

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 11:13 am    Post subject: Re: WHY BUY ANNUITIES? Reply with quote

bob90245 wrote:
I respectfully disagree. Rather than finding annuity threads largely unnecessary and mostly unproductive, I find them to be quite interesting and educational. I find the topic of using annuities as supplementary income in retirement with the possibility of improving portfolio survivability to be quite intriguing. It is a topic I have devoted much time, study and web space (HERE and HERE) these past several months.

Bob, just let me add my thanks, too. You've posted a wealth of material and links, and there is a lot of material here in the Library section, and I'm slowly nibbling my way through it.

I'd add that quite a lot of the studies you've pointed me to suggest that buying SPIAs is very sensible for many retirees.
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Valuethinker



Joined: 11 May 2007
Posts: 11410

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 12:33 pm    Post subject: Re: WHY BUY ANNUITIES? Reply with quote

nisiprius wrote:
bob90245 wrote:
I respectfully disagree. Rather than finding annuity threads largely unnecessary and mostly unproductive, I find them to be quite interesting and educational. I find the topic of using annuities as supplementary income in retirement with the possibility of improving portfolio survivability to be quite intriguing. It is a topic I have devoted much time, study and web space (HERE and HERE) these past several months.

Bob, just let me add my thanks, too. You've posted a wealth of material and links, and there is a lot of material here in the Library section, and I'm slowly nibbling my way through it.

I'd add that quite a lot of the studies you've pointed me to suggest that buying SPIAs is very sensible for many retirees.


I must admit, coming from UK/Canada, and having worked in insurance (but in an information technology role), that annuities strike me as a great product. The market is highly competitive between insurers, and relatively transparent.

Many retirees can't manage a 'safe withdrawal rate', indeed many I know are likely to *underspend* rather than overspend, because of the concern about longevity.

JP Morgan is indeed hoping to launch a longevity bond, which for many investors might obviate the need for an annuity. But that product, as a tested retail format, doesn't exist yet.

What you would call Immediate Annuities, and what I would call Indexed annuities (ie IA with the payout linked to inflation) seem to me to be an attractive asset class.

The rest strike me as something of a con. More ways to conceal insurance agent commissions.

I would like to thank you both, Bob and Nisiprius, RScheit and Risk Averse as well as everyone else who has contributed to this fascinating thread.
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Orion



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 369

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've seen a couple of studies that show increased survivability when annuities are added to a stock/bond mix. However, as far as I know, all of these studies use actual historical data for stock and bond performance, but simply assume that annuities will survive and pay as promised. It seems that adding another portfolio element that is assumed never to disappear could only enhance the predicted survivability. However, my father tells me that during the great depression, he remembers most annuities simply disappearing.

Hopefully someday, someone will a do a "Trinity Study for annuities" that tells you what percentage of your annuity promise can be historically counted on, whether state guarantees mean anything during such major downturns, and how many annuities you need to be diversified.
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