when to get back into tiaa-cref real estate account ???

[greenspam]

(if this has been recently discussed, please provide the URL)

almost all here have agreed that the tiaa-cref real estate account 'lags' the real estate market, due in part to lags in property valuations, so that this acct can be 'timed'.... and many of us got out when the going was still good...

that being the case,

when will it be 'time' to get back into the tiaa-cref real estate acct ??? it does look like the NAV is starting to bottom out (at least, the rate of change of decay is flattening), but, otoh, commercial real estate is still in bad shape...there could be a double dip... etc etc...

any opinions welcome, for or against timing this acct, but also very interested in hearing WHEN you think the waters will be safe again. not so much a specific date, of course, but what signs/economic conditions/etc would indicate such. thanx.

[chaz]

IMO the magic time to invest was yesterday.

Good luck.

[Tramper Al]

I have totally timed my return to TIAA RE for this tomorrow, based on my my own proprietary technical analysis of the bottoming of the NAV curve. Or, maybe it's just because I fund my 403b in Jan-Mar every year, and it typically reaches TIAA on the 21st.

[oneleaf]

rather than responding like a bogle spambot, I will acknowledge that TREA is a special circumstance.

I know the people on the TIAA-CREF M* forum virtually unanimously agree that it is not worth going in until there is a substantial uptrend. And even then, to wade in slowly. My father is in the account and he is not rebalancing in just yet.

[Tramper Al]

I know the people on the TIAA-CREF board virtually unanimously agree that it is not worth going in until there is a substantial uptrend.

Should members of the Board of Directors be saying things like that, I mean publicly?

[oneleaf]

I know the people on the TIAA-CREF board virtually unanimously agree that it is not worth going in until there is a substantial uptrend.

Should members of the Board of Directors be saying things like that, I mean publicly?

oops! My bad. I meant to say TIAA-CREF Morningstar Forum. I have edited my original post.

[DickBenson]

when will it be 'time' to get back into the tiaa-cref real estate acct ???

When they have paid off at least $2 billion of their $4 billion in mortgage loans (about $1 billion due in the coming year).

When they have returned the $1.2 billion in "loans" that they have received from the General (Traditional) Account.

When their cash reserves are restored.

When commercial real estate begins to appreciate.

When returns from office rentals returns to normal levels.

When net assets show consistent growth above present $8 billion.

When they begin purchasing, rather than selling, properties.

You have plenty of time.

Remember, the "NAV" of the REA is not determined by what investors will pay for it, but by the values of its properties, other assets and its liabilities. You are not likely to "miss the boat".

Dick