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Should I sell short-term investments?

 
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johnanglemen



Joined: 01 Oct 2009
Posts: 49

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 2:10 am    Post subject: Should I sell short-term investments? Reply with quote

Before I discovered this forum, I was an amateur investor who poured some cash into a bunch of individual stocks. Some of these are way up (e.g. goog) and some are way down (e.g. citibank).

Now I've "seen the light" and am putting all of my future investment cash into low-fee Vanguard index funds. However, I'm not sure what to do with these individual stock investments, most of which are still within the short-term capital gain/loss window. Are there any reasons to hold onto these stocks if my future investment plans call for index funds? Or should I just sell everything now regardless of their performance?

I don't mind waiting for a stock like Google to hit long-term capital gain rates before I sell it but I'm wondering if there's any reason to hold onto a loser like Citibank..
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YDNAL



Joined: 10 Apr 2007
Posts: 3824
Location: Biscayne Bay

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 3:14 am    Post subject: Should I sell short-term investments? Reply with quote

OK, John,

http://www.bogleheads.org/foru....ht=#566621
I've followed some of your posts since the first (above).

Have you developed a long-term plan with goals, Asset Allocation, and steps to implement the plan?
Investment Planning
Asking Portfolio Questions

My $0.02.
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“The business schools reward difficult complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective.” - Warren Buffett
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johnanglemen



Joined: 01 Oct 2009
Posts: 49

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 4:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Um.... yes, I have, as I said in the original post.

http://www.bogleheads.org/foru....p?p=575289

This question is not asking if I should hold a lot of individual stocks as part of my asset allocation over the long term. I've already decided I will not. The question is whether it makes sense to just sell them right away, or whether there are other considerations (such as waiting for long-term capital gains rates). I lean toward immediately selling the ones that I expect to flounder for awhile (e.g. Citibank) but thought I'd gather advice.
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EmergDoc



Joined: 02 Mar 2007
Posts: 4938
Location: Home sweet home

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 6:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sell the losers immediately, sell the winners after a year. If any are held in a tax-protected account, sell immediately.

Good luck.
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Hexdump



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Posts: 355

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 6:34 am    Post subject: I'm sorta in the same quandry. Reply with quote

johnanglemen wrote:
Um.... yes, I have, as I said in the original post.

http://www.bogleheads.org/foru....p?p=575289

This question is not asking if I should hold a lot of individual stocks as part of my asset allocation over the long term. I've already decided I will not. The question is whether it makes sense to just sell them right away, or whether there are other considerations (such as waiting for long-term capital gains rates). I lean toward immediately selling the ones that I expect to flounder for awhile (e.g. Citibank) but thought I'd gather advice.


I have 2 closed end funds that are down about 40% since I bought them. I am reluctant to sell them since they are paying a 9% dividend.

If they were close to the purchase price, I would sell them and put the $$ where it belongs, in short and intermediate term Vanguard bond funds.

I look at these booger every day.
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livesoft



Joined: 01 Mar 2007
Posts: 8014

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 7:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hexdump, would you buy more of those closed-end funds today since they are paying a 9% dividend? If not, why not?

Loss aversion is a classic behavioral finance trap. A method to avoid it, is to always sell all losers before you have held them a year or in Nov/Dec of the current year.
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YDNAL



Joined: 10 Apr 2007
Posts: 3824
Location: Biscayne Bay

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 7:48 am    Post subject: Should I sell short-term investments? Reply with quote

johnanglemen wrote:
Um.... yes, I have, as I said in the original post.

http://www.bogleheads.org/foru....p?p=575289
John,

I linked the original post from October 1st.

In the follow-up of October 13th (you linked above), there is but 3% of portfolio in stocks and managed funds to learn/play with investing. This last post makes it seem like Google and Citi have big capital gains/losses over a 1 month period with a smallish amount of money.

Sorry, some of these things posted don't compute (at least in my mind) and also don't reflect investing with a long-term plan and AA. Play money (3% of portfolio) should just be play money; and the intent of my post is simply to ask you if you actually developed a plan and AA. What happened to $300K to buy a house and $200K "play money?"
johnanglemen wrote:
Current portfolio: $500,000

Held in Wells Fargo, so trades are free.

Taxable

40% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) 0.09%
10% Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR) 0.15%
11% Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) 0.25%
11% Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small Cap ETF (VSS) 0.38%
0% Vanguard CA Intermediate Term Tax-Exempt Bond (VCAIX) 0.20% (to fill out my bond allocation as needed, since 401k and IRA are full)
3% Vanguard CA Long Term Tax-Exempt Bond (VCITX) 0.20%
3% high-risk equity (e.g. individual stock picks or actively managed funds) -- I realize I may lose money here, but I'm enjoying learning about investing and would appreciate the chance to go out on a limb and deviate from the market with a small percentage of my portfolio

401k

10% iShares Barclay TIPS Bond Fund ETF (TIP) 0.20%
Company match: No
Available funds: Any (self-directed)

Traditional IRA

2% iShares Barclay TIPS Bond Fund ETF (TIP) 0.20%

New annual contributions (will drop significantly after a few years)

$16,500 401k
$160,000 taxable (after taxes and expenses. My plan is to allocate into stocks/bonds at the percentages above with each paycheck).
Is this right... you are 24yo?

I realize that you are very young and my intent is to highlight the fluidity going on here in just 30 days.

Good luck!
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“The business schools reward difficult complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective.” - Warren Buffett
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Hexdump



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Posts: 355

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:34 am    Post subject: No, I would not buy them today Reply with quote

livesoft wrote:
Hexdump, would you buy more of those closed-end funds today since they are paying a 9% dividend? If not, why not?

Loss aversion is a classic behavioral finance trap. A method to avoid it, is to always sell all losers before you have held them a year or in Nov/Dec of the current year.


I bought them before I had heard about the Bogle technique/forum, and since then I am going to stick to my AA rather than a hit and mostly-miss approach.

I still hate to take the loss, though your point about selling them is well taken.
They are in a Roth where I will be eligible to make withdrawals in 2013. Converted from a Trad-IRA this year.

I bought one at $13.23 and now the NAV is $8.51, price is $7.00, symbol is JQC.
Actually, the dividend is 9% based upon the present price, but 4.8% based upon my purchase price.

Oops, sorry for getting off topic. I will shut up now.
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johnanglemen



Joined: 01 Oct 2009
Posts: 49

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 2:38 pm    Post subject: Re: Should I sell short-term investments? Reply with quote

YDNAL wrote:
johnanglemen wrote:
Um.... yes, I have, as I said in the original post.

http://www.bogleheads.org/foru....p?p=575289
John,

I linked the original post from October 1st.

In the follow-up of October 13th (you linked above), there is but 3% of portfolio in stocks and managed funds to learn/play with investing. This last post makes it seem like Google and Citi have big capital gains/losses over a 1 month period with a smallish amount of money.


I bought Google and Citi earlier this year. Before I developed a plan. Now I'm trying to figure out the most expedient way to bring my old portfolio in line with the plan I developed. I still don't quite understand the confusion or discrepancy here.
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retiredjg



Joined: 10 Jan 2008
Posts: 4178

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My suggestion is close to EmergDoc's

1) Sell losers immediately.
2) Sell short term gainers to the extent they are offset by short term losers.
3) Sell all the long term gainers.
4) What is left should all be short term gainers - wait the year, then sell.

Of course, if it is only 3% of your portfolio and not all of it will be gains, you might just sell it all and pay a little extra in tax.
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grabiner



Joined: 20 Feb 2007
Posts: 2798
Location: Columbia, MD

PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:58 pm    Post subject: Re: No, I would not buy them today Reply with quote

Hexdump wrote:
livesoft wrote:
Hexdump, would you buy more of those closed-end funds today since they are paying a 9% dividend? If not, why not?

Loss aversion is a classic behavioral finance trap. A method to avoid it, is to always sell all losers before you have held them a year or in Nov/Dec of the current year.


I bought them before I had heard about the Bogle technique/forum, and since then I am going to stick to my AA rather than a hit and mostly-miss approach.

I still hate to take the loss, though your point about selling them is well taken.


Switching from one fund to another similar fund is not taking a loss; you expect both to go up together. I don't know exactly what your funds hold, but selling a stock fund and buying another stock fund, or a bond fund and buying another bond fund, or selling a balanced fund and buying both bond and stock funds, shouldn't have much effect on your future returns.
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