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Lbill

Joined: 14 Mar 2008 Posts: 3248
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:03 pm Post subject: Why allocate less than 5% to anything? |
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In his book "Unconventional Success," David Swensen states:
| Quote: | | The necessity that each asset class matter indicates a minimum of 5 or 10 percent allocation. |
That seems like a good rule to me. However, I note that some of our noteworthy forum experts invest only about 3% in certain asset classes in some of their recommended portfolios. For example, Larry Swedroe has about 3% in CCFs in his personal portfolio and Rick Ferri suggests only 2% or so in microcap. Is it really worth allocating that small a percentage to anything - or is this putting too fine a point on portfolio construction? I'm wondering about the discrepancy between them and Swensen on this point and whether it makes much sense to allocate less than 5% to an asset class and why. _________________ I can tolerate risk -- it's losing money that bothers me. |
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larryswedroe
Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Posts: 5423 Location: St Louis MO
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:10 pm Post subject: |
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Few thoughts
First, this issue of Keep it simple is WAY WAY overstated. How much work is required when you add another asset class? For passive investors almost none. Few times a year you rebalance and maybe TLH. Takes few minutes.
Second, more diversification is better than less if you reduce uncompensated risk.
Third, the lower the correlation the more of impact adding an asset can be. And volatility matters. Thus, in isolation a rule like 5% makes no sense because adding a small amount of an asset with negative correlation and high volatility can have more impact than adding a significantly higher allocation of an asset with very high correlation.
Fourth location issues may limit the ability to add an allocation to a desired asset class and some is better than none. |
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livesoft
Joined: 01 Mar 2007 Posts: 12536
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Another reason is that sometimes 1%, 2%, etc is on the way to 5% and up. |
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spam

Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 905
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:40 pm Post subject: |
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| An allocation of less than 5% can still be a substantial amount to loose. |
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Triple digit golfer
Joined: 18 May 2009 Posts: 1297
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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"Keep it simple" may be overstated, and I agree that it takes little time and effort to add another asset class or rebalance, but the point is will that 2.5% allocation to REITs or whatever it may be really do much for you?
I think in nearly every case the answer is no. |
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spam

Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 905
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Triple digit golfer wrote: | "Keep it simple" may be overstated, and I agree that it takes little time and effort to add another asset class or rebalance, but the point is will that 2.5% allocation to REITs or whatever it may be really do much for you?
I think in nearly every case the answer is no. |
It could do quite a bit for children or grand childen headed for college.
I put less than 3% into a 5% CD instead of using the principal to pay off a 6% mortgage. |
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norookie
Joined: 07 Jul 2009 Posts: 638
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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To be a contrarian or just thinking _"play"_ money maybe 2-3% in your favorite individual equity maybe?,.... for FUNZ! Just a thought I had as I saw certain Financial/Banking equities fall down to a dollar or lower that seem to have recovered nicely. It is gambling but:::>Just saying.......... |
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Triple digit golfer
Joined: 18 May 2009 Posts: 1297
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:24 pm Post subject: |
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| spam wrote: | | Triple digit golfer wrote: | "Keep it simple" may be overstated, and I agree that it takes little time and effort to add another asset class or rebalance, but the point is will that 2.5% allocation to REITs or whatever it may be really do much for you?
I think in nearly every case the answer is no. |
It could do quite a bit for children or grand childen headed for college.
I put less than 3% into a 5% CD instead of using the principal to pay off a 6% mortgage. |
Yes, but would your overall portfolio be much different if you put that 3% into your largest bond holding instead? Probably not. |
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larryswedroe
Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Posts: 5423 Location: St Louis MO
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:25 pm Post subject: |
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| It is not an issue of doing much, if the cost is effectively zero if it adds anything it should be done |
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Roy
Joined: 10 Sep 2008 Posts: 434
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Triple digit golfer wrote: | "Keep it simple" may be overstated, and I agree that it takes little time and effort to add another asset class or rebalance, but the point is will that 2.5% allocation to REITs or whatever it may be really do much for you?
I think in nearly every case the answer is no. |
While we can know only how that assumption played out in the past, here is some info:
Since 1972: 100% S&P 500:
CAGR 9.26%
Standard Dev 18.59%
Since 1972: 97.5% S&P 500 and 2.5% CCFs:
CAGR 9.35%
Standard Dev 18.17%
So returns are a bit higher but Standard Deviation is lower.
Since 1972: 95% S&P 500 and 2.5% CCFs and 2.5% REITs:
CAGR 9.43%
Standard Dev 17.97%
The returns are now higher still, and the Standard Deviation yet lower, simply by adding 2.5% each of the asset classes shown. Now, maybe a particular investor does not want those asset classes, for whatever reason, but even small quantities of low-correlating assets can help in multiple ways.
Roy
Last edited by Roy on Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:31 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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DSInvestor
Joined: 04 Oct 2008 Posts: 2679
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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I think context is important. A 2.5% holding of REIT doesn't look like much by itself. Let's surround that REIT fund with some other funds:
20% TBM
37.5% TSM
30% FTSE All World ex-US
10% Small Cap Value
2.5% REIT
TSM and Small Cap Value also have REIT. What's the overall exposure to REIT in this portfolio relative to market weight? |
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spam

Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 905
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Triple digit golfer wrote: | | spam wrote: | | Triple digit golfer wrote: | "Keep it simple" may be overstated, and I agree that it takes little time and effort to add another asset class or rebalance, but the point is will that 2.5% allocation to REITs or whatever it may be really do much for you?
I think in nearly every case the answer is no. |
It could do quite a bit for children or grand childen headed for college.
I put less than 3% into a 5% CD instead of using the principal to pay off a 6% mortgage. |
Yes, but would your overall portfolio be much different if you put that 3% into your largest bond holding instead? Probably not. |
I think we are both technically correct. Sometimes the goal is risk management, other times the goal is total return. I had 100% invested in a single mutual fund when I first started out. Now, 5% is a much larger amount.
With a duration of 6 and an interest rate increase of 3% that individual bond fund would loose around 18% |
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Beagler
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 Posts: 1570
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Triple digit golfer wrote: | "Keep it simple" may be overstated, and I agree that it takes little time and effort to add another asset class or rebalance, but the point is will that 2.5% allocation to REITs or whatever it may be really do much for you?
I think in nearly every case the answer is no. |
2.5% of a large number is a large number. It all depends upon portfolio size. For a small portfolio it might not make sense, but for a large portfolio it certainly might.
Rick Ferri's excellent book on asset allocation includes a 2% microcap allocation. _________________ "Complexity doesn't add returns or reduce risk. (Diversification does.) And simplicity doesn't increase returns or reduce risk. Portfolio construction of the right kind does." domus obfirmo sermo |
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Boglenaut
Joined: 23 Mar 2009 Posts: 1081
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 8:30 pm Post subject: Re: Why allocate less than 5% to anything? |
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| Lbill wrote: | In his book "Unconventional Success," David Swensen states:
| Quote: | | The necessity that each asset class matter indicates a minimum of 5 or 10 percent allocation. |
That seems like a good rule to me. However, I note that some of our noteworthy forum experts invest only about 3% in certain asset classes in some of their recommended portfolios. For example, Larry Swedroe has about 3% in CCFs in his personal portfolio and Rick Ferri suggests only 2% or so in microcap. Is it really worth allocating that small a percentage to anything - or is this putting too fine a point on portfolio construction? I'm wondering about the discrepancy between them and Swensen on this point and whether it makes much sense to allocate less than 5% to an asset class and why. |
If there is no extra costs involved, why not?
The portofio is just a number. Every investment has a proportional weight. |
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Lbill

Joined: 14 Mar 2008 Posts: 3248
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 8:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | It is not an issue of doing much, if the cost is effectively zero if it adds anything it should be done |
Yes, but it often isn't because many of these "niche" holdings like CCFs have a higher expense ratio. There is also the matter of trading and rebalancing costs if you are using ETFs or funds not offered by your custodian. So, these things are not usually cost-free, especially if all at Vanguard and through Vanguard brokerage. _________________ I can tolerate risk -- it's losing money that bothers me. |
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VennData
Joined: 26 Feb 2007 Posts: 139
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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Well, whatever you do... do NOT add any VWO (aka VEIEX/VEMAX) until you read this interview in the recently smarted-up WSJ's interview with Jim O’Neill, Vampire Squid's chief economist:
WSJ: How do you think investors should target emerging markets?
Mr. O’Neill: Emerging markets are a diverse set of countries. So it doesn’t make much sense to invest in a broad-based emerging-markets index
http://online.wsj.com/article/....82043.html
And I'd like the thank Rupert Murdock personally for delivering such a fine, ever-improving critique of the modern world of business and finance. |
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Blue
Joined: 12 Jul 2008 Posts: 578
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 9:12 pm Post subject: |
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I've always thought Swenson's point made a lot of sense.
2-3% allocation is as large as many rebalancing bands for higher allocation % assets. At some point, noise in the data overwhelms the significance of these small allocations. |
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yobria
Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Posts: 2175 Location: SF CA USA
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 9:19 pm Post subject: |
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As I've said many times - a < 5% allocation of anything is a waste of time.
Nick |
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jeffyscott

Joined: 27 Feb 2007 Posts: 3383 Location: Wisconsin
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 9:39 pm Post subject: |
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I think it is a waste of time to spend time telling other people that they are wasting their time by putting <5% in a somewhat arbitrary group of securities called an "asset class".
Is it a waste of time for a fund that represents an asset class to have less than 5% in any one stock? _________________ Jeffy
press on, regardless - John C. Bogle |
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camper

Joined: 05 Dec 2008 Posts: 270 Location: Tucson
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 10:02 pm Post subject: |
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| jeffyscott wrote: | I think it is a waste of time to spend time telling other people that they are wasting their time by putting <5% in a somewhat arbitrary group of securities called an "asset class".
Is it a waste of time for a fund that represents an asset class to have less than 5% in any one stock? |
Very good question. I think not. _________________ "I emphasize three main principles: first, to not be too greedy; second, to diversify as widely as possible; and third, to always be wary of the investment industry." William J. Bernstein |
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Fbone

Joined: 20 Jun 2009 Posts: 570
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 10:06 pm Post subject: |
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| If an investor is bored with his portfolio, I can understand adding a small percentage into a speculative stock/etf/fund to make things more interesting and keep you actively involved. |
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Beagler
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 Posts: 1570
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Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2009 10:19 pm Post subject: |
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| yobria wrote: | As I've said many times - a < 5% allocation of anything is a waste of time.
Nick |
Rick Ferri includes several <5% asset classes in his asset allocation book. I don't think he's wrong, esp. if an investor is dealing with a larger portfolio. _________________ "Complexity doesn't add returns or reduce risk. (Diversification does.) And simplicity doesn't increase returns or reduce risk. Portfolio construction of the right kind does." domus obfirmo sermo |
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yobria
Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Posts: 2175 Location: SF CA USA
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 12:49 am Post subject: |
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| Beagler wrote: | | Rick Ferri includes several <5% asset classes in his asset allocation book. I don't think he's wrong, esp. if an investor is dealing with a larger portfolio. |
That's fine in theory. In practice, few investors I know can correctly rebalance even the simplest portfolio. In addition:
a) Asset subclasses are highly correlated making granular breakdowns of little use
b) Those < 5%ers invariably are expensive, tax unfriendly and often undiversified subclasses
There is no free lunch. Clutter up your portfolio and you have a 50% chance (ignoring fees/taxes) of getting lucky and coming out ahead.
In fact, I'd say anything less than 10% of one class is a losing idea for most investors. Invest regularly, live w/in your means and keep it simple.
Nick |
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sscritic
Joined: 06 Sep 2007 Posts: 4001
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 1:28 am Post subject: |
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Doesn't the size of the portfolio matter? With a $10 million portfolio, if you open a checking account with $200, you need to keep at least $500,000 in cash (cash is an asset class and 5% of $10 million is $500,000). I certainly can understand someone keeping less than 5% in cash in this situation. Even with only a $1 million portfolio, you would need $50,000 in cash.
If the rule doesn't apply to cash, to which other asset classes does it not apply? |
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baw703916

Joined: 01 Apr 2007 Posts: 2413 Location: Northern Virginia
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 1:55 am Post subject: |
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| yobria wrote: | That's fine in theory. In practice, few investors I know can correctly rebalance even the simplest portfolio. In addition:
a) Asset subclasses are highly correlated making granular breakdowns of little use
b) Those < 5%ers invariably are expensive, tax unfriendly and often undiversified subclasses
There is no free lunch. Clutter up your portfolio and you have a 50% chance (ignoring fees/taxes) of getting lucky and coming out ahead.
In fact, I'd say anything less than 10% of one class is a losing idea for most investors. Invest regularly, live w/in your means and keep it simple.
Nick |
I'll give you a counter-example. I have a Roth and an SEP IRA, neither of which is larger than 5% of my total portfolio. In those accounts I have a few different things that aren't available in my main retirement account and aren't suitable for my taxable account.
Brad _________________ I don't foresee any Black Swans appearing in the future |
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Triple digit golfer
Joined: 18 May 2009 Posts: 1297
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 7:32 am Post subject: |
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| Roy wrote: | | Triple digit golfer wrote: | "Keep it simple" may be overstated, and I agree that it takes little time and effort to add another asset class or rebalance, but the point is will that 2.5% allocation to REITs or whatever it may be really do much for you?
I think in nearly every case the answer is no. |
While we can know only how that assumption played out in the past, here is some info:
Since 1972: 100% S&P 500:
CAGR 9.26%
Standard Dev 18.59%
Since 1972: 97.5% S&P 500 and 2.5% CCFs:
CAGR 9.35%
Standard Dev 18.17%
So returns are a bit higher but Standard Deviation is lower.
Since 1972: 95% S&P 500 and 2.5% CCFs and 2.5% REITs:
CAGR 9.43%
Standard Dev 17.97%
The returns are now higher still, and the Standard Deviation yet lower, simply by adding 2.5% each of the asset classes shown. Now, maybe a particular investor does not want those asset classes, for whatever reason, but even small quantities of low-correlating assets can help in multiple ways.
Roy |
That doesn't look like much to me. 0.17% per year isn't what I'd consider "much." |
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Valuethinker
Joined: 11 May 2007 Posts: 13393
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 7:34 am Post subject: Re: Why allocate less than 5% to anything? |
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| Lbill wrote: | In his book "Unconventional Success," David Swensen states:
| Quote: | | The necessity that each asset class matter indicates a minimum of 5 or 10 percent allocation. |
That seems like a good rule to me. However, I note that some of our noteworthy forum experts invest only about 3% in certain asset classes in some of their recommended portfolios. For example, Larry Swedroe has about 3% in CCFs in his personal portfolio and Rick Ferri suggests only 2% or so in microcap. Is it really worth allocating that small a percentage to anything - or is this putting too fine a point on portfolio construction? I'm wondering about the discrepancy between them and Swensen on this point and whether it makes much sense to allocate less than 5% to an asset class and why. |
Strictly speaking of mathematics:
- if volatility and/or expected return is high enough (and correlation low enough with other asset classes) then you can add significantly to end wealth by adding sub 5% in an asset class. Has to be big volatility/ low correlation though
- gold is the canonical example (see Efficient Frontier article something like 'the most patient investment'). You are embracing disaster scenarios and you might wait 20 years for it to perform, but when it does, it will.
Beware industry trends though. 'Alternatives' has become a huge industry. I mean huge. And that has pushed institutions into all kinds of places where they discovered that, in a crisis, 'correlation goes to one'.
They have, again, paid high fees for mediocre performance.
Genuine diversification is rare. Particularly when it's all going wrong.
I would rather you put 10% into Timber and/or MLPs, probably, as a genuine diversification. But again see problems with alternatives.
Poster Alvinsch here is a guru on MLPs, and you want to read everything he has ever posted here on the subject. Stratton knows quite a lot about timber, the guru source is GMO fund managers BUT there was a lot of activity in timber in recent years, which suggested the 'smart money' was selling. It's not a hidden story any more (and the international timber experience is a lot less bullish-- a lot of tax driven investing, giving low returns).
See also David Swensen's book on institutional investing.
My own venture in this direction is private equity closed end funds: there are some good ones on the London market, and they have been slaughtered (due to leverage).
There is much to be said for:
- 40% TSM
- 20% international index fund
- 20% US ST treasuries
- 20% TIPS
or (for people who believe theory will triumph)
- 40% TSM
- 20% international index
- 40% TIPS
in the above, you have minimized tax and fund management costs.
or (for people who believe in empirical data over theory)
- 30% TSM
- 10% US Small Cap Value
- 15% international index (ex EM)
- 10% EM (or 5% EM and 5% international SCV *if* you can find a good vehicle eg DFA fund)
- 35% TIPS
(a considerably riskier portfolio, but potentially, long term, a more valuable one)
The 'drag' costs of tax and management fees on alternatives for individual investors generally mean they are not worth it, long term. |
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Trev H
Joined: 02 Mar 2007 Posts: 1573
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 7:51 am Post subject: |
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IMO - should start with the core 4, equally weighted.
25% US Large
25% US Small
25% Intl Large
25% Intl Small
(value tilt if you want)
And you could sure stop with that if you wanted !
But then allow 10-20% (other components) and equally weight them.
For example at the max - could deviate from that up to:
20% US Large
20% US Small
20% Intl Large
20% Intl Small
05% US REIT
05% Intl REIT
05% Commodities
05% Gold
Talking Equity Allocation only of course.
I think my brain may be wired for 1/N allocations, or perhaps it could be that after a "zillion or so" backtest - and seeing how well 1/N type allocations work and how simple they are, could be that is what has wired my brain that direction
=== |
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larryswedroe
Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Posts: 5423 Location: St Louis MO
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 8:23 am Post subject: |
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Lbill
Of course costs matter. But that is true REGARDLESS of the percentage you add. Either you should add the asset class or not because of costs.
I made the very point that correlations and volatility should matter. If high correlation then adding an asset class may not make much difference. But again, even small benefits are still benefits--especially if costs are very low. And adding asset classes can add little to no costs.
As to know how to rebalance effectively, that is a totally separate issue. What difference does that make if you have 4 or 5 asset classes. Either you do or you don't, and if you don't you should be getting professional help either way. |
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jeffyscott

Joined: 27 Feb 2007 Posts: 3383 Location: Wisconsin
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 8:36 am Post subject: better talk to vanguard... |
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The appropriate target fund for my expected retirement date, 2015, has 3.3% in Pacific stock index and 2.7% in emerging markets. Don't they know they are wasting their time?
Roy posted past return data for:
95% S&P 500 and 2.5% CCFs and 2.5% REITs
and truely the difference did not look like much to me, but what if it were something like: 2.5% REIT, 2.5% CCF, 2.5% emerging, 2.5% foreign, 2.5%, foreign small, 2.5% US small value, 2.5% US large value, 2.5 % foreign value, and 80% S&P 500? And what if instead of 2.5% it were 4% or 5% in each, since 5% is the threshold where an allocation is supposed to "matter", according to some. _________________ Jeffy
press on, regardless - John C. Bogle |
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Beagler
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 Posts: 1570
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 8:48 am Post subject: |
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| yobria wrote: | | Beagler wrote: | | Rick Ferri includes several <5% asset classes in his asset allocation book. I don't think he's wrong, esp. if an investor is dealing with a larger portfolio. |
That's fine in theory. In practice, few investors I know can correctly rebalance even the simplest portfolio. In addition:
|
Would you clarify how your position that few investors can correctly rebalance with the statement that a position of <5% is meaningless?
Commodities, for example, even in small amounts can have a meaningful impact on a portfolio. Just because an investor doesn't know how to rebalance doesn't nullify this fact. _________________ "Complexity doesn't add returns or reduce risk. (Diversification does.) And simplicity doesn't increase returns or reduce risk. Portfolio construction of the right kind does." domus obfirmo sermo
Last edited by Beagler on Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:39 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Beagler
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 Posts: 1570
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 8:53 am Post subject: Re: better talk to vanguard... |
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| jeffyscott wrote: | The appropriate target fund for my expected retirement date, 2015, has 3.3% in Pacific stock index and 2.7% in emerging markets. Don't they know they are wasting their time?
Roy posted past return data for:
95% S&P 500 and 2.5% CCFs and 2.5% REITs
and truely the difference did not look like much to me, but what if it were something like: 2.5% REIT, 2.5% CCF, 2.5% emerging, 2.5% foreign, 2.5%, foreign small, 2.5% US small value, 2.5% US large value, 2.5 % foreign value, and 80% S&P 500? And what if instead of 2.5% it were 4% or 5% in each, since 5% is the threshold where an allocation is supposed to "matter", according to some. |
Great point. I guess those folks at VG don't realize there's a 5% cutoff. And neither did Rick when he wrote All About Asset Allocation.
By the way, what formula was used to arrive at the 5% cutoff point? Must be a very useful formula, since it appears to apply to portfolios of all sizes.
Larry's correct, of course, the stressing of "simplicity" can be taken much too far. _________________ "Complexity doesn't add returns or reduce risk. (Diversification does.) And simplicity doesn't increase returns or reduce risk. Portfolio construction of the right kind does." domus obfirmo sermo |
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wilson08
Joined: 02 Apr 2008 Posts: 147
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:09 am Post subject: |
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| Trev H wrote: | IMO - should start with the core 4, equally weighted.
25% US Large
25% US Small
25% Intl Large
25% Intl Small
(value tilt if you want)
And you could sure stop with that if you wanted !
But then allow 10-20% (other components) and equally weight them.
For example at the max - could deviate from that up to:
20% US Large
20% US Small
20% Intl Large
20% Intl Small
05% US REIT
05% Intl REIT
05% Commodities
05% Gold
Talking Equity Allocation only of course.
I think my brain may be wired for 1/N allocations, or perhaps it could be that after a "zillion or so" backtest - and seeing how well 1/N type allocations work and how simple they are, could be that is what has wired my brain that direction
=== |
You have probably posted this before but what is your fixed
allocation ?
Wilson |
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Lbill

Joined: 14 Mar 2008 Posts: 3248
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:24 am Post subject: |
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Larry wrote:
| Quote: | | As to know how to rebalance effectively, that is a totally separate issue. What difference does that make if you have 4 or 5 asset classes. Either you do or you don't, and if you don't you should be getting professional help either way. |
I agree that I need professional help - the meds aren't working. Seriously though, if I could link up with an investment advisor in my area who came close to knowing as much about investing as the typical boglehead I would probably consider it. I feel that I would be spending more time educating the advisor than the other way around. What can an advisor add to the mix (if I lived in St. Louis I wouldn't be asking)? _________________ I can tolerate risk -- it's losing money that bothers me. |
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TheEternalVortex
Joined: 27 Feb 2007 Posts: 1713 Location: San Jose, CA
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:25 am Post subject: Re: better talk to vanguard... |
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| jeffyscott wrote: |
and truely the difference did not look like much to me, but what if it were something like: 2.5% REIT, 2.5% CCF, 2.5% emerging, 2.5% foreign, 2.5%, foreign small, 2.5% US small value, 2.5% US large value, 2.5 % foreign value, and 80% S&P 500? And what if instead of 2.5% it were 4% or 5% in each, since 5% is the threshold where an allocation is supposed to "matter", according to some. |
The "rule" isn't meant to apply to this situation. Basically it just says that the marginal benefit from adding a new asset as less than 5% of a portfolio will be relatively small (in Trev's example this is certainly the case).
Of course adding many assets will have an impact. Certainly if you add multiple assets adding up to 20% then this will have a larger impact. That is a totally different situation. |
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Sheepdog

Joined: 27 Feb 2007 Posts: 1617 Location: Indiana, retired 1998 age 65
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:45 am Post subject: |
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I have 22% allocation to equities. If I have 2% of the total in REITs, that 2% is actually 9% of equity. _________________ Frame every so-called disaster with these words "in five years, will this matter?" |
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Ziggy75
Joined: 24 Sep 2008 Posts: 263
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:47 am Post subject: |
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Small percentages are used in the Target Retirement Income Fund:
eg:
Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund Investor Shares 5.0%
Vanguard European Stock Index Fund Investor Shares 3.0%
Vanguard Pacific Stock Index Fund Investor Shares 1.6%
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Investor Shares 1.3%
Of course you don't have to worry about rebalancing within this fund... |
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djw
Joined: 08 Apr 2008 Posts: 1172
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:50 am Post subject: |
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Just yesterday I was thinking that if I'd put 3% of my money into Ford stock when it was near its $1.01 low last November 20th, I'd be a very happy investor at yesterday's $8.44 closing price.
Last November I was confident that Ford would survive and prosper in the future and I used to dabble in Ford stock, among many others, when I was a short-term trader a few years ago using Scottrade. Then I saw the light and became a Boglehead slice-and-dice index investor.
I mention this just to illustrate how an extremely volatile investment can hugely outperform the S & P. Of course, it can also go to zero -- look at GM.
Instead of speculating with individual stocks like Ford, today I have slices in VGENX (energy stocks) VGPMX, (gold, platinum, and mining stocks), and VGSIX (REIT stocks). Not as volatile as Ford or GM, but in return for surrendering some upside potential, I've also eliminated the chance of dropping all the way to zero (like GM).
It's easy to bemoan how much I could have made in Ford stock over the past 8.5 months, but that's 20/20 hindsight. In my trader days, I would never have kept the stock this long. I would have sold when it doubled from $1.01 to $2.02, if not sooner. |
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jeffyscott

Joined: 27 Feb 2007 Posts: 3383 Location: Wisconsin
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:02 am Post subject: Re: better talk to vanguard... |
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| TheEternalVortex wrote: | ...the marginal benefit from adding a new asset as less than 5% of a portfolio will be relatively small (in Trev's example this is certainly the case).
Of course adding many assets will have an impact. Certainly if you add multiple assets adding up to 20% then this will have a larger impact. That is a totally different situation. |
So...5% here and 5% there and pretty soon we are talking about something that does matter  _________________ Jeffy
press on, regardless - John C. Bogle |
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DRiP Guy

Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Posts: 1609
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:17 am Post subject: |
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| jeffyscott wrote: | I think it is a waste of time to spend time telling other people that they are wasting their time by putting <5% in a somewhat arbitrary group of securities called an "asset class".
Is it a waste of time for a fund that represents an asset class to have less than 5% in any one stock? |
| Quote: | | Don't they know they are wasting their time? |
Or, some could think it is a waste of time for someone else to tell a person asking a legitimate question that they are wasting their time.
It seems to me that one can legitimately question at what level does a percentage in an allocation become irrelevant, and therefore should not be 'sliced' into the portfolio or otherwise worth managing to; and conversely, there are those who could ask at what level above zero does an amount become significant enough to attend to, i.e. where failing to include it would likely become a disadvantage to an otherwise well-diversified plan.
I am sure you have views on these matters and others, but frankly, when I read your replies, all I can detect is the snarling attitude, so whatever message you intend is getting lost, at least to me. Perhaps phrasing your objections, inputs, and analysis in a more neutral tone, with the support of examples, could be helpful if your goal is to be understood and to influence others to your point of view.
Thanks.
"Seek first to understand; then to be understood." |
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jeffyscott

Joined: 27 Feb 2007 Posts: 3383 Location: Wisconsin
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:25 am Post subject: |
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| DRiP Guy wrote: | | all I can detect is the snarling attitude... |
Wow ..."snarling"...really  _________________ Jeffy
press on, regardless - John C. Bogle |
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DRiP Guy

Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Posts: 1609
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:29 am Post subject: |
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| jeffyscott wrote: | | DRiP Guy wrote: | | all I can detect is the snarling attitude... |
Wow ..."snarling"...really  |
I just saw (and replied to) your 'challenge ' to me on the other thread, therefore in the interest of consistency since there is no 'ignore poster' function on the board, I will extend my policy there to you on this thread (and all future others) as well:
I will not reply to you on the forum and give you the attention you seek, but will gladly debate, argue, share, discuss to your heart's content via any PM you care to send to me.
Otherwise,
Good day to you. |
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gw
Joined: 28 May 2009 Posts: 646
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:50 am Post subject: |
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| Roy wrote: |
While we can know only how that assumption played out in the past, here is some info:
Since 1972: 100% S&P 500:
CAGR 9.26%
Standard Dev 18.59%
Since 1972: 97.5% S&P 500 and 2.5% CCFs:
CAGR 9.35%
Standard Dev 18.17%
So returns are a bit higher but Standard Deviation is lower.
Since 1972: 95% S&P 500 and 2.5% CCFs and 2.5% REITs:
CAGR 9.43%
Standard Dev 17.97%
The returns are now higher still, and the Standard Deviation yet lower, simply by adding 2.5% each of the asset classes shown. Now, maybe a particular investor does not want those asset classes, for whatever reason, but even small quantities of low-correlating assets can help in multiple ways.
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Doesn't it look like it could just be noise in the data?
The question is rhetorical.
For future income needs, buy bonds, preferring TIPS for their inflation protection. For long-term investments, buy stocks, dampening volatility with bonds as required by your psychology and your investing horizon.
That's it.
Don't play numerological games with your money---a fair estimate of uncertainty always dominates. |
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Roy
Joined: 10 Sep 2008 Posts: 434
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:33 am Post subject: |
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| gw wrote: | | Roy wrote: |
While we can know only how that assumption played out in the past, here is some info:
Since 1972: 100% S&P 500:
CAGR 9.26%
Standard Dev 18.59%
Since 1972: 97.5% S&P 500 and 2.5% CCFs:
CAGR 9.35%
Standard Dev 18.17%
So returns are a bit higher but Standard Deviation is lower.
Since 1972: 95% S&P 500 and 2.5% CCFs and 2.5% REITs:
CAGR 9.43%
Standard Dev 17.97%
The returns are now higher still, and the Standard Deviation yet lower, simply by adding 2.5% each of the asset classes shown. Now, maybe a particular investor does not want those asset classes, for whatever reason, but even small quantities of low-correlating assets can help in multiple ways.
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Doesn't it look like it could just be noise in the data?
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The returns improved and SD lowered, so maybe a small percentage can help. How much such help matters is up to the investor. Personally, I own neither asset class nor any holdings in very small quantlity. But Larry made a point when he said:
"It is not an issue of doing much, if the cost is effectively zero if it adds anything it should be done."
Clearly this is not for everyone, but I thought Larry's opinion on this comparatively small matter was a good one, and the data seems to agree.
Roy |
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johnjtaylorus
Joined: 06 Apr 2008 Posts: 618 Location: washington, dc
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 12:20 pm Post subject: |
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Thoreau made a sound point about simplicity.
However, even before elec spreadsheets (I've been investing 40 yrs), it wasn't hard to keep track of investments < 5%.
And the math is inexorable. Anything positive or negative affects the portfolio in toto. |
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ruralavalon

Joined: 02 Feb 2008 Posts: 1035 Location: Illinois
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 12:29 pm Post subject: Re: Why allocate less than 5% to anything? |
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| Lbill wrote: | In his book "Unconventional Success," David Swensen states:
| Quote: | | The necessity that each asset class matter indicates a minimum of 5 or 10 percent allocation. |
That seems like a good rule to me. However, I note that some of our noteworthy forum experts invest only about 3% in certain asset classes in some of their recommended portfolios. For example, Larry Swedroe has about 3% in CCFs in his personal portfolio and Rick Ferri suggests only 2% or so in microcap. Is it really worth allocating that small a percentage to anything - or is this putting too fine a point on portfolio construction? I'm wondering about the discrepancy between them and Swensen on this point and whether it makes much sense to allocate less than 5% to an asset class and why. |
Both Larry Swedroe and Rick Ferri are better informed and more experienced than I am, so maybe < 5% allocations will make sense for them and for their customers. For a do-it-youself investor with a day job (such as myself), simplicity makes sense.
I do enjoy reading (and learning from) their books, anyway. |
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Blue
Joined: 12 Jul 2008 Posts: 578
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 12:39 pm Post subject: |
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I am curious at what level those that support very small allocations <5% would think would be so small to be insignificant.
If 3% is ok, why not 0.3%. At some point surely all of us recognize there is declining impact of adding very small amounts to a portfolio, and if the number is not 5%... then what is the number that is too small to make difference? Would we all agree that smaller than 2% is insignificant relative to noise? |
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Valuethinker
Joined: 11 May 2007 Posts: 13393
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Trev H wrote: | IMO - should start with the core 4, equally weighted.
25% US Large
25% US Small
25% Intl Large
25% Intl Small
(value tilt if you want)
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Value is a much stronger force in the data than size, and yet you are suggesting a really big overweighting in size (assuming US Large is TSM? Or that US Small is equivalent to small cap?). But not in value.
| Quote: |
And you could sure stop with that if you wanted !
But then allow 10-20% (other components) and equally weight them.
For example at the max - could deviate from that up to:
20% US Large
20% US Small
20% Intl Large
20% Intl Small
05% US REIT
05% Intl REIT
05% Commodities
05% Gold
Talking Equity Allocation only of course.
I think my brain may be wired for 1/N allocations, or perhaps it could be that after a "zillion or so" backtest - and seeing how well 1/N type allocations work and how simple they are, could be that is what has wired my brain that direction
=== |
That's a big weighting in REITs, in effect, given it is already 2-3% of TSM?
International REITs that is a huge weighting. Remember the sector (outside Australia) is broadly not well established internationally. It's quite quite new. |
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jeffyscott

Joined: 27 Feb 2007 Posts: 3383 Location: Wisconsin
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 4:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Blue wrote: | | If 3% is ok, why not 0.3%. At some point surely all of us recognize there is declining impact of adding very small amounts to a portfolio, and if the number is not 5%... then what is the number that is too small to make difference? Would we all agree that smaller than 2% is insignificant relative to noise? |
One way to consider it might be to look at how many funds you would have if you equal weighted a bunch of slices. At 2% you would have 50 funds, that seems like it would be a huge nunber of funds to have. But at 5% it's only 20 funds, which is a lot but really not an extreme number, IMO.
0.3% would be 333 funds...
I'm not as focused on these precise allocations as I used to be, but when I was I went as low as 3%, that was for an emerging market fund. This was at 50% equity, so if one were at, say, 30% equity then that'd drop to around 2%. _________________ Jeffy
press on, regardless - John C. Bogle |
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spam

Joined: 10 Jun 2008 Posts: 905
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Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 5:07 pm Post subject: |
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The top 10 stocks in the S&P500
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