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Retirement Calculator

 
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mwgr5



Joined: 01 Mar 2007
Posts: 90

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 10:21 am    Post subject: Retirement Calculator Reply with quote

I am trying to find a good retirement calculator. Ideally, the calculator would include some sort of Monte Carlo simulation or backtesting that would show the success rate of the portfolio in different historic time frames. I know Vanguard has a good retirement calculator, but is there another calculator that is very good?

I think the main problem with many retirement calculators is the assumption of constant returns. Many ask the user to input rates of return and then compound the porfolio in retirement at a constant rate. Of coarse in reality, investment returns are not constant and can have high variance.

Thanks!
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Matt
www.sharpeinvesting.com
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livesoft



Joined: 01 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 10:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

www.firecalc.com (not monte carlo, but something else)
www.flexibleretirementplanner.com
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bob90245



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3369

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 10:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's also this one:

http://www3.troweprice.com/ric/RIC/
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tdhg566



Joined: 08 Mar 2007
Posts: 537
Location: Houston - Age: 57

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mwgr5:

Really liked your website/blog (http://www.sharpeinvesting.com/)
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williamg



Joined: 01 Mar 2007
Posts: 123

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This calculator is a little different as it tries to optimize taxes in planning withdrawals from your various accounts; ie., taxable, IRA, Roth.

http://www.i-orp.com/index.html
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Seven



Joined: 04 Mar 2007
Posts: 1
Location: Northern California

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Matt,
I really like the Monte Carlo retirement calculator at moneychimp dot com. I can't post the link (forum newbies can't include links in their posts until they've made 4 posts, and this is only my first), but if you go to money chimp and do a search on monte carlo you'll find it. I don't know if it's exactly what you're looking for, but it may be worth a look.

Btw, I also liked your website/blog. (The SNL skit w/Steve Martin is priceless!)

Regards,
Seven
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bob90245



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3369

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seven wrote:
I really like the Monte Carlo retirement calculator at moneychimp dot com.

Here is the link:

http://www.moneychimp.com/arti....ecarlo.htm

However, it doesn't use historical data for the inputs. The inputs are user-selected.
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mwgr5



Joined: 01 Mar 2007
Posts: 90

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the helpful responses. I am still looking for a calculator with some specific inputs that I have not yet found, so if you are aware of any other good calculators let me know. If not, the calculators already posted are excellent and I will meet most of my needs. Thanks!
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livesoft



Joined: 01 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pray tell: what specific inputs are you looking for?
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mwgr5



Joined: 01 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

livesoft wrote:
Pray tell: what specific inputs are you looking for?


The main missing inputs were a field to enter expected return during retirement and a field for entering yearly savings as a percent of income.
This isn't a huge problem, as most of the calculators have a way of entering this information, just not in the format I was looking for.
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4th&Goal



Joined: 20 Feb 2007
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Location: Mojave Desert

PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 5:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I use Retirement Savings Planner 2007 (Couples Edition) from Torrid Technologies. From the website:
"For individuals, employees, retirement plan participants who want to quickly and easily estimate their retirement savings and how much you need to meet your retirement income goal. If you are already retired it will help illustrate how long your money will last."
The Couples Edition allows you to enter data separately but still see a combined retirement income analyses. There is a downloadable free trial that lets you test drive the software.

http://www.torrid-tech.com/rp_main.html
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livesoft



Joined: 01 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 5:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mwgr5 wrote:
livesoft wrote:
Pray tell: what specific inputs are you looking for?


The main missing inputs were a field to enter expected return during retirement and a field for entering yearly savings as a percent of income.
This isn't a huge problem, as most of the calculators have a way of entering this information, just not in the format I was looking for.


firecalc allows you to enter expected return and a standard deviation of that return.

Maybe you can simulate an increase in yearly savings by putting a negative inflation factor number (i.e. instead of 3%, -3%)?
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prentis



Joined: 03 Mar 2007
Posts: 207
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 9:09 pm    Post subject: analyzenow.com Reply with quote

Please see the available software at www.analyzenow.com . The free stuff is very useful and the full program is a bargain at $50, including support by the author. You will find no more thorough analysis for future planning. Be sure to read the author's little essays. They are priceless.
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gneeby



Joined: 02 Jul 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mwgr5 wrote:
livesoft wrote:
Pray tell: what specific inputs are you looking for?


The main missing inputs were a field to enter expected return during retirement and a field for entering yearly savings as a percent of income.
This isn't a huge problem, as most of the calculators have a way of entering this information, just not in the format I was looking for.


You may be asking the wrong question if you want to input your anticipated retirement spending level. This value is wishful thinking. A better way to frame the problem is "If I live to the age of 90 how much after-tax money will I have to spend each year?" It takes an optimizer to do that, e.g. esplanner.com or i-orp.com.
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gneeby



Joined: 02 Jul 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

livesoft wrote:
www.firecalc.com (not monte carlo, but something else)
www.flexibleretirementplanner.com


The utility of a Monte Carlo calculator is limited by its method of generating its random values. Use of a normal distribution has been slammed hard in the academic press. For example see:

Nawrocki, David, professor of finance, Villanova University; Finance and Monte Carlo Simulation; Journal of Financial Planning/November 2001.

Firecalc uses historical data involving historical sequences of returns which is far superior.
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Didro



Joined: 06 Nov 2009
Posts: 2

PostPosted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:17 pm    Post subject: Retirement Calculator - financial planning Reply with quote

Hi all

I do agree with gneeby regarding the Monte Carlo limitations, heck the recent crises proved it to the dot.

I used execplanexpress retiremnet planning and liked the ease and yet powerful results.

take care
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Offcelled



Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Posts: 8

PostPosted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 11:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hope yobria's www.easyallocator.com comes back; it wasn't available when I just now checked but I thought it was a nice combination of comprehensive and accessible, especially for Boglehead types.

Also, the T. Rowe Price calculator mentioned above seems to currently reside here: http://www3.troweprice.com/ric/ric/public/ric.do
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kd2008



Joined: 15 Feb 2009
Posts: 38

PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 5:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is one posted by jnojr in some other thread: http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/software.html
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gneeby



Joined: 02 Jul 2008
Posts: 15

PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:28 pm    Post subject: Retirement Calculators Reply with quote

Offcelled wrote:
I hope yobria's www.easyallocator.com comes back; it wasn't available when I just now checked but I thought it was a nice combination of comprehensive and accessible, especially for Boglehead types.

Also, the T. Rowe Price calculator mentioned above seems to currently reside here: http://www3.troweprice.com/ric/ric/public/ric.do


There are two kinds of retirement calculcators to avoid:

1 Software that is downloaded and run on your computer. Who knows what kinds of evil it is carrying.
2. Software sponsered by financial institutions that are looking to increase their asset manangement business. Their computations may be biased and not based on good science.
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JW Nearly Retired



Joined: 16 Dec 2007
Posts: 906

PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vanguard has a particularly easy-to-use one if you are nearing retirement. Not much data to enter. It doesn't address the saving phase, just a Monte Carlo for how long your retirement nest egg will last.

https://retirementplans.vangua....ggCalc.jsf

JW
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LadyGeek



Joined: 20 Dec 2008
Posts: 822
Location: Philly suburb

PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You have a nice selection of Retirement Calculators on the wiki.

Please see Tools and Calculators on the Bogleheads Wiki.
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LadyGeek



Joined: 20 Dec 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One more added to the list (Otar's Retirement Calculator), refer to the Retirement Calculators section.
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kenbrumy



Joined: 28 Feb 2009
Posts: 113

PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Look at this free version of ESPlanner. It's a little different than most calculators in that it determines a "smoothed" consumption pattern over your whole life.

https://basic.esplanner.com/

It's easy to use and lets you play with some of the variables. To get all the bells and whistles you have to fork over $150 which I haven't.

All the calculators in the world won't really resolve your basic question. Reality gets in the way of all those fancy Monte Carlo models, historical data and single return calcs. You never know when 2008 will hit again or whether 2008 will be considered a good year by comparison. You just have to live your life, do the best you can and pull the cord when you feel it's the right time.
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LadyGeek



Joined: 20 Dec 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some opinions about ESPlanner were expressed in this thread: ESPlanner BASIC is free.
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kb0fhp



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 713

PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 7:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Based on the many retirement calculators I have found the secret to a good retirement - die early.
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YDNAL



Joined: 10 Apr 2007
Posts: 3824
Location: Biscayne Bay

PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 9:07 am    Post subject: Retirement Calculator Reply with quote

mwgr5 wrote:
I am trying to find a good retirement calculator. Ideally, the calculator would include some sort of Monte Carlo simulation or backtesting that would show the success rate of the portfolio in different historic time frames.
YDNAL retirement calculator:
The time spent looking at the past, and/or trying to predict (or figure-out) the future, is best used enjoying the present.
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“The business schools reward difficult complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective.” - Warren Buffett
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Didro



Joined: 06 Nov 2009
Posts: 2

PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 2:35 pm    Post subject: calculators Reply with quote

Quote:
2. Software sponsered by financial institutions that are looking to increase their asset manangement business. Their computations may be biased and not based on good science.


I concur with that, financial institutions are very biased as far as their analysis and recommendations goes.

As for the first comment regarding downloading to your machine issue, i have to disagree, it is easier to install malware via a browser than via download and scan procedure.
as long as you know what you are doing and know to scan your download for malware you should be good.

Regards
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tadamsmar



Joined: 07 May 2007
Posts: 1917

PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 4:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

www.financialengines.com
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MWCA



Joined: 30 Nov 2007
Posts: 781

PostPosted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kb0fhp wrote:
Based on the many retirement calculators I have found the secret to a good retirement - die early.


I find it a little amusing. I realize the need to plan and I do it with these calculators. But if someone would have asked me 30 yrs ago where I would be now and how the world would be.... Needless to say I would have been a little off Wink
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gatorking



Joined: 20 Feb 2007
Posts: 255
Location: Burlington MA

PostPosted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I find it amusing how old threads get suddenly revived.
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MWCA



Joined: 30 Nov 2007
Posts: 781

PostPosted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gatorking wrote:
I find it amusing how old threads get suddenly revived.


Yeah just noticed. Pretty good necro Smile
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