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mwgr5
Joined: 01 Mar 2007 Posts: 90
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Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 10:21 am Post subject: Retirement Calculator |
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I am trying to find a good retirement calculator. Ideally, the calculator would include some sort of Monte Carlo simulation or backtesting that would show the success rate of the portfolio in different historic time frames. I know Vanguard has a good retirement calculator, but is there another calculator that is very good?
I think the main problem with many retirement calculators is the assumption of constant returns. Many ask the user to input rates of return and then compound the porfolio in retirement at a constant rate. Of coarse in reality, investment returns are not constant and can have high variance.
Thanks! _________________ Matt
www.sharpeinvesting.com |
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livesoft
Joined: 01 Mar 2007 Posts: 8014
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bob90245

Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Posts: 3369
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tdhg566

Joined: 08 Mar 2007 Posts: 537 Location: Houston - Age: 57
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Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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mwgr5:
Really liked your website/blog (http://www.sharpeinvesting.com/) _________________ My work must be retiree friendly, geographically portable, mentally stimulating and personally profitable |
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williamg
Joined: 01 Mar 2007 Posts: 123
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Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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This calculator is a little different as it tries to optimize taxes in planning withdrawals from your various accounts; ie., taxable, IRA, Roth.
http://www.i-orp.com/index.html |
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Seven
Joined: 04 Mar 2007 Posts: 1 Location: Northern California
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Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 2:15 pm Post subject: |
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Hi Matt,
I really like the Monte Carlo retirement calculator at moneychimp dot com. I can't post the link (forum newbies can't include links in their posts until they've made 4 posts, and this is only my first), but if you go to money chimp and do a search on monte carlo you'll find it. I don't know if it's exactly what you're looking for, but it may be worth a look.
Btw, I also liked your website/blog. (The SNL skit w/Steve Martin is priceless!)
Regards,
Seven |
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bob90245

Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Posts: 3369
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Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 2:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Seven wrote: | | I really like the Monte Carlo retirement calculator at moneychimp dot com. |
Here is the link:
http://www.moneychimp.com/arti....ecarlo.htm
However, it doesn't use historical data for the inputs. The inputs are user-selected. |
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mwgr5
Joined: 01 Mar 2007 Posts: 90
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Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks for the helpful responses. I am still looking for a calculator with some specific inputs that I have not yet found, so if you are aware of any other good calculators let me know. If not, the calculators already posted are excellent and I will meet most of my needs. Thanks! _________________ Matt
www.sharpeinvesting.com |
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livesoft
Joined: 01 Mar 2007 Posts: 8014
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Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Pray tell: what specific inputs are you looking for? |
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mwgr5
Joined: 01 Mar 2007 Posts: 90
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Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:39 pm Post subject: |
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| livesoft wrote: | | Pray tell: what specific inputs are you looking for? |
The main missing inputs were a field to enter expected return during retirement and a field for entering yearly savings as a percent of income.
This isn't a huge problem, as most of the calculators have a way of entering this information, just not in the format I was looking for. _________________ Matt
www.sharpeinvesting.com |
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4th&Goal

Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Posts: 552 Location: Mojave Desert
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Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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I use Retirement Savings Planner 2007 (Couples Edition) from Torrid Technologies. From the website:
"For individuals, employees, retirement plan participants who want to quickly and easily estimate their retirement savings and how much you need to meet your retirement income goal. If you are already retired it will help illustrate how long your money will last."
The Couples Edition allows you to enter data separately but still see a combined retirement income analyses. There is a downloadable free trial that lets you test drive the software.
http://www.torrid-tech.com/rp_main.html _________________ "I advise you to go on living solely to enrage those who are paying your annuities. It is the only pleasure I have left."
(Voltaire) |
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livesoft
Joined: 01 Mar 2007 Posts: 8014
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Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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| mwgr5 wrote: | | livesoft wrote: | | Pray tell: what specific inputs are you looking for? |
The main missing inputs were a field to enter expected return during retirement and a field for entering yearly savings as a percent of income.
This isn't a huge problem, as most of the calculators have a way of entering this information, just not in the format I was looking for. |
firecalc allows you to enter expected return and a standard deviation of that return.
Maybe you can simulate an increase in yearly savings by putting a negative inflation factor number (i.e. instead of 3%, -3%)? |
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prentis

Joined: 03 Mar 2007 Posts: 207 Location: Washington State
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Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 9:09 pm Post subject: analyzenow.com |
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Please see the available software at www.analyzenow.com . The free stuff is very useful and the full program is a bargain at $50, including support by the author. You will find no more thorough analysis for future planning. Be sure to read the author's little essays. They are priceless. _________________ A good landing is one that you can walk away from. |
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gneeby
Joined: 02 Jul 2008 Posts: 15
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Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:59 am Post subject: |
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| mwgr5 wrote: | | livesoft wrote: | | Pray tell: what specific inputs are you looking for? |
The main missing inputs were a field to enter expected return during retirement and a field for entering yearly savings as a percent of income.
This isn't a huge problem, as most of the calculators have a way of entering this information, just not in the format I was looking for. |
You may be asking the wrong question if you want to input your anticipated retirement spending level. This value is wishful thinking. A better way to frame the problem is "If I live to the age of 90 how much after-tax money will I have to spend each year?" It takes an optimizer to do that, e.g. esplanner.com or i-orp.com. |
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gneeby
Joined: 02 Jul 2008 Posts: 15
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Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:09 am Post subject: |
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The utility of a Monte Carlo calculator is limited by its method of generating its random values. Use of a normal distribution has been slammed hard in the academic press. For example see:
Nawrocki, David, professor of finance, Villanova University; Finance and Monte Carlo Simulation; Journal of Financial Planning/November 2001.
Firecalc uses historical data involving historical sequences of returns which is far superior. |
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Didro
Joined: 06 Nov 2009 Posts: 2
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Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:17 pm Post subject: Retirement Calculator - financial planning |
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Hi all
I do agree with gneeby regarding the Monte Carlo limitations, heck the recent crises proved it to the dot.
I used execplanexpress retiremnet planning and liked the ease and yet powerful results.
take care |
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Offcelled
Joined: 23 Feb 2007 Posts: 8
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Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 11:28 pm Post subject: |
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I hope yobria's www.easyallocator.com comes back; it wasn't available when I just now checked but I thought it was a nice combination of comprehensive and accessible, especially for Boglehead types.
Also, the T. Rowe Price calculator mentioned above seems to currently reside here: http://www3.troweprice.com/ric/ric/public/ric.do |
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kd2008
Joined: 15 Feb 2009 Posts: 38
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gneeby
Joined: 02 Jul 2008 Posts: 15
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Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:28 pm Post subject: Retirement Calculators |
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| Offcelled wrote: | I hope yobria's www.easyallocator.com comes back; it wasn't available when I just now checked but I thought it was a nice combination of comprehensive and accessible, especially for Boglehead types.
Also, the T. Rowe Price calculator mentioned above seems to currently reside here: http://www3.troweprice.com/ric/ric/public/ric.do |
There are two kinds of retirement calculcators to avoid:
1 Software that is downloaded and run on your computer. Who knows what kinds of evil it is carrying.
2. Software sponsered by financial institutions that are looking to increase their asset manangement business. Their computations may be biased and not based on good science. |
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JW Nearly Retired
Joined: 16 Dec 2007 Posts: 906
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Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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Vanguard has a particularly easy-to-use one if you are nearing retirement. Not much data to enter. It doesn't address the saving phase, just a Monte Carlo for how long your retirement nest egg will last.
https://retirementplans.vangua....ggCalc.jsf
JW |
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LadyGeek

Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Posts: 822 Location: Philly suburb
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LadyGeek

Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Posts: 822 Location: Philly suburb
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Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:22 pm Post subject: |
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One more added to the list (Otar's Retirement Calculator), refer to the Retirement Calculators section. _________________ Some say the glass half-full. Others say the glass is half-empty. To an engineer, it’s twice as big as it needs to be. Link to Wiki |
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kenbrumy
Joined: 28 Feb 2009 Posts: 113
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Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 3:39 pm Post subject: |
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Look at this free version of ESPlanner. It's a little different than most calculators in that it determines a "smoothed" consumption pattern over your whole life.
https://basic.esplanner.com/
It's easy to use and lets you play with some of the variables. To get all the bells and whistles you have to fork over $150 which I haven't.
All the calculators in the world won't really resolve your basic question. Reality gets in the way of all those fancy Monte Carlo models, historical data and single return calcs. You never know when 2008 will hit again or whether 2008 will be considered a good year by comparison. You just have to live your life, do the best you can and pull the cord when you feel it's the right time. |
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LadyGeek

Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Posts: 822 Location: Philly suburb
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Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 4:52 pm Post subject: |
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Some opinions about ESPlanner were expressed in this thread: ESPlanner BASIC is free. _________________ Some say the glass half-full. Others say the glass is half-empty. To an engineer, it’s twice as big as it needs to be. Link to Wiki |
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kb0fhp
Joined: 26 May 2008 Posts: 713
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Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Based on the many retirement calculators I have found the secret to a good retirement - die early. |
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YDNAL
Joined: 10 Apr 2007 Posts: 3824 Location: Biscayne Bay
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Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 9:07 am Post subject: Retirement Calculator |
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| mwgr5 wrote: | | I am trying to find a good retirement calculator. Ideally, the calculator would include some sort of Monte Carlo simulation or backtesting that would show the success rate of the portfolio in different historic time frames. | YDNAL retirement calculator:
The time spent looking at the past, and/or trying to predict (or figure-out) the future, is best used enjoying the present. _________________ Landy
“The business schools reward difficult complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective.” - Warren Buffett |
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Didro
Joined: 06 Nov 2009 Posts: 2
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Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2009 2:35 pm Post subject: calculators |
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| Quote: | | 2. Software sponsered by financial institutions that are looking to increase their asset manangement business. Their computations may be biased and not based on good science. |
I concur with that, financial institutions are very biased as far as their analysis and recommendations goes.
As for the first comment regarding downloading to your machine issue, i have to disagree, it is easier to install malware via a browser than via download and scan procedure.
as long as you know what you are doing and know to scan your download for malware you should be good.
Regards |
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tadamsmar
Joined: 07 May 2007 Posts: 1917
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MWCA
Joined: 30 Nov 2007 Posts: 781
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Posted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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| kb0fhp wrote: | | Based on the many retirement calculators I have found the secret to a good retirement - die early. |
I find it a little amusing. I realize the need to plan and I do it with these calculators. But if someone would have asked me 30 yrs ago where I would be now and how the world would be.... Needless to say I would have been a little off  |
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gatorking

Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Posts: 255 Location: Burlington MA
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Posted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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| I find it amusing how old threads get suddenly revived. |
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MWCA
Joined: 30 Nov 2007 Posts: 781
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Posted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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| gatorking wrote: | | I find it amusing how old threads get suddenly revived. |
Yeah just noticed. Pretty good necro  |
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