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grok87
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Posts: 3426
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 Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:41 pm Post subject: Forbes: America's most abandoned cities |
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http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/....peed=15000
Here's the list- #1 is las vegas
Las vegas
detroit
atlanta
greensboro, nc
dayton
phoenix
orlando
kansas city mo/ks
jacksonville
indianapolis
miami/fort lauderdale
chicago
tampa
bakersfield
cincinatti
So do any bogleheads live in these cities. Are things really as grim as Forbes says?
cheers,
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grok, CFA |
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Pacific
Joined: 06 Mar 2007
Posts: 714
Location: Lost in the middle of the Pacific
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| Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Interesting that 10 of the 15 have NFL franchises. I wonder how NOLA could escape this listing? |
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EmergDoc
Joined: 02 Mar 2007
Posts: 6127
Location: Greatest Snow On Earth
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| Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:59 pm Post subject: |
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Grim?
Sales are up 15% in Vegas and up 90% in San Diego. I'm no expert but increasing sales to me signals that we are nearing the bottom. As that inventory clears price will eventually flatten and begin to climb, especially if interest rates remain low.
The best comparison, of course, is the difference between renting and buying in a particular community. If buying gets cheaper than renting....investors will rush in and prices will start climbing.
| Quote: | "By the end of 2010, that's where we're calling the bottom in the forward market. You're going to get a small price appreciation in 2011," says Patten. "It's not like the turn is 10% per year, it'll be something like 3% or 4%."
Others aren't quite as optimistic.
"There's a lot of talk that the recession could last into 2010, and all through that period you're going to have job loss and layoffs," says Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, a Manhattan residential appraisal firm. "You're going to see inventory build up, and it'll still take another year or two to work off the inventory. This is a four-year scenario."
In markets like Atlanta, or Sacramento, Calif., however, where prices are an affordable $151,300 and $212,000, respectively, it's difficult to forecast a further rapid descent in prices. At that low of a price point for Atlanta, and with current 5.17% interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages, it's $828 a month to buy. That's incentive enough to buy property. Median renters' costs there, according to the Census Bureau American Community Survey, are $821 a month. Though the survey tracks data from 2005 through 2007, rents are likely similar today. |
http://www.forbes.com/2009/01/....state.html
I hope the "bottom=end 2010" prediction is spot on as that's when I'll be making the biggest purchase of my life.
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1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy
4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course |
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pjstack
Joined: 20 Feb 2007
Posts: 612
Location: Harbor City, CA
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| Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 11:37 pm Post subject: |
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| EmergDoc wrote: |
I hope the "bottom=end 2010" prediction is spot on as that's when I'll be making the biggest purchase of my life. |
OMG! Are you going to buy a Petrocelli-type wristwatch?
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Cherokee8215
Joined: 16 Dec 2008
Posts: 904
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| Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 11:46 pm Post subject: |
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| I figured Detroit would be near the top of the list. I was looking at a piece of industrial property in Detroit for my employer using Google Earth. Panning around to the residential neighborhoods reveals acres upon acres of "urban prairie." Meaning entire blocks where the homes have been knocked down, and fields of weeds are growing. On other blocks, half the houses are still there along with piles of rubble, burnt out shells, boarded up homes, etc. Some dead end blocks/streets are full of junk and debris, and are blocked off. When you use the "Street View" function it gets even sadder. |
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nick22
Joined: 04 Mar 2007
Posts: 815
Location: Ohio
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:05 am Post subject: Cincinnati |
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I don't think Cincinnati is really any different than before. This metro area has not grown or contracted in decades, with a metro area of 1-2 million. The "homeowner vacancy rate" has increased from 2.3% to 4% from 2005-2007, so maybe all the young homeowners that defaulted just moved back in with their parents.
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Harold
Joined: 03 Mar 2007
Posts: 1328
Location: San Francisco
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 10:39 am Post subject: Re: Cincinnati |
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| nick22 wrote: | | I don't think Cincinnati is really any different than before. This metro area has not grown or contracted in decades, with a metro area of 1-2 million. The "homeowner vacancy rate" has increased from 2.3% to 4% from 2005-2007, so maybe all the young homeowners that defaulted just moved back in with their parents. |
Cincinnati's really been "dying" since the end of the steamboat era. It seems to be just the way they want it for most who live there now though. |
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Rick Ferri
Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 3623
Location: Home on the range in Medina, Texas
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 10:49 am Post subject: |
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I read an article that Washington's 'moratorium' on financial firm seminars is killing Las Vegas, which is interesting because Nevada Senator Harry Reid is playing a key role in trying to change Wall Street. I would call that an 'unintended consequence.'
Rick Ferri |
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deepdrive
Joined: 20 Dec 2008
Posts: 924
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 10:52 am Post subject: |
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I live in a suburb of Chicago and things seem OK in and around Chicago. I would have never guessed that Chicago is on that list. But then again, is that by total numbers or percentages? Chicago is the third most populated city, so it only makes sense that it's up there high on the list.
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Investment difficulty and long-term success are perfectly negatively correlated. Keep it simple. |
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Go Blue 99
Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Posts: 98
Location: Atlanta
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:15 am Post subject: |
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We live in Atlanta (#3 on the list). It's on the list because developers went crazy building huge subdivisions in less desirable suburbs, and dozens of condo towers in Buckhead and Midtown (trendy city neighborhoods).
The problem with the city condos is that this isn't NYC or San Fran. There aren't enough young professionals making the big bucks to afford these expensive condos. And a lot of the young professionals end up buying townhouses and houses instead, since they are affordable here.
As for the McMansions in the far-off suburbs...nobody wants to live there and deal with the traffic, even if you can get a new 4000 sq foot home for $225k. |
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Harold
Joined: 03 Mar 2007
Posts: 1328
Location: San Francisco
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:33 am Post subject: |
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| Go Blue 99 wrote: | | The problem with the city condos is that this isn't NYC or San Fran. There aren't enough young professionals making the big bucks to afford these expensive condos. And a lot of the young professionals end up buying townhouses and houses instead, since they are affordable here. |
Atlanta's also nowhere near as dense as NYC or SF. The intown living appeal for many people is that pretty much all the day-to-day stuff is very close by (i.e. pleasant walking distance). Buckhead and Midtown may be trendy, but they don't really fit that bill. |
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chaz
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Posts: 6813
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Rick Ferri wrote: | I read an article that Washington's 'moratorium' on financial firm seminars is killing Las Vegas, which is interesting because Nevada Senator Harry Reid is playing a key role in trying to change Wall Street. I would call that an 'unintended consequence.'
Rick Ferri |
Correct : Las Vegas needs seminars and conventions.
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Chaz
"It is better to travel well than to arrive." - Buddha
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page |
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FinanceGeek
Joined: 01 Jul 2007
Posts: 528
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:07 pm Post subject: |
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| Cherokee8215 wrote: | | I figured Detroit would be near the top of the list. I was looking at a piece of industrial property in Detroit for my employer using Google Earth. Panning around to the residential neighborhoods reveals acres upon acres of "urban prairie." Meaning entire blocks where the homes have been knocked down, and fields of weeds are growing. On other blocks, half the houses are still there along with piles of rubble, burnt out shells, boarded up homes, etc. Some dead end blocks/streets are full of junk and debris, and are blocked off. When you use the "Street View" function it gets even sadder. |
Where 'bouts exactly? A quick check around downtown didn't show this when I checked. |
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btenny
Joined: 07 Oct 2007
Posts: 862
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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I live in Phoenix part of the year and yes they are hurting there. The outskirts of the city has several suburb cities that are overbuilt with houses that builders built on spec and now cannot sell. Same with several new shopping malls that are being delayed from opening due to lack of tenents in these outskirt areas. Plus in Phoenix a good part of the economy is based on continual growth and build build to make a bigger city. So yes the prices are down a lot from the peak and growth is stalled for the moment.
But the sun still comes out every day and the weather is very nice all winter and the state budget is bad but has been balanced with reasonable taxes and minimal Fed help. Plus in Phoenix (like Vegas and LA ) we have great land areas outside the city that will make nice solar power plants that need to be built and are well into the planning and funding stages. So this will help in the recovery.
So this downturn too shall pass.
Bill |
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rallycobra
Joined: 23 Aug 2008
Posts: 39
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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[/quote]
OMG! Are you going to buy a Petrocelli-type wristwatch?[/quote]
 +1 |
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livesoft
Joined: 01 Mar 2007
Posts: 12466
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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From the Houston Chronicle:
http://www.chron.com/disp/stor....67070.html
| Quote: | One in three homes sold last month had previously been in foreclosure, according to the Houston Association of Realtors, and the increase in foreclosure inventory helped contribute to an 8.5 percent drop the median price of a single-family home.
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mlebuf
Joined: 20 Feb 2007
Posts: 913
Location: Paradise Valley, Arizona
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 10:23 pm Post subject: |
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I heard on the local financial radio station this morning that existing homes are selling for less than the cost of building an equivalent one. That could signal a bottom or near bottom.
Best wishes,
Michael
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Best wishes,
Michael
Invest your time actively and your money passively. |
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fishndoc
Joined: 11 Apr 2007
Posts: 1254
Location: Kennesaw, GA
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | That could signal a bottom or near bottom.
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In my opinion (and we know what that is worth), we will reach a bottom when people feel secure in their jobs - that means a slow down in lay-offs, and the appearance of at least a few "help wanted" signs. Until then, few are going to feel secure enough to commit to a new home, even if they have significant savings.
Wayne
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sgmike
Joined: 03 Mar 2008
Posts: 44
Location: Houston, TX
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| Posted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:00 am Post subject: |
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| livesoft wrote: | From the Houston Chronicle:
http://www.chron.com/disp/stor....67070.html
| Quote: | One in three homes sold last month had previously been in foreclosure, according to the Houston Association of Realtors, and the increase in foreclosure inventory helped contribute to an 8.5 percent drop the median price of a single-family home.
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Keep in mind the Chronicle is one of the worst newspapers in the world for fact-checking and error-free reporting. I glance online from time to time at it and they have had recent articles stating low foreclosures, no more than 3% drop in prices, etc. They'll have a story next week stating the opposite of this one; what an awful excuse for a newspaper (and that's just from a fact checking, quality of writing point of view).
I live here and know of few foreclosures except some in McMansion-land west of town. I'm looking to buy another house inside The Loop, so I would love to see this level of foreclosures going on (from a selfish point of view, personally I'd rather see people stay put). |
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SamB
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 343
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| Posted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:49 am Post subject: |
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| Cherokee8215 wrote: | | I figured Detroit would be near the top of the list. I was looking at a piece of industrial property in Detroit for my employer using Google Earth. Panning around to the residential neighborhoods reveals acres upon acres of "urban prairie." Meaning entire blocks where the homes have been knocked down, and fields of weeds are growing. On other blocks, half the houses are still there along with piles of rubble, burnt out shells, boarded up homes, etc. Some dead end blocks/streets are full of junk and debris, and are blocked off. When you use the "Street View" function it gets even sadder. |
I grew up in Detroit in the 50's and 60's, a short distance from Henry Ford's original plant in Highland Park. I think the population actually peaked out at a bit over 2.5M about 1942. The population is now below 900,000. That green space you notice was filled up with very good housing at one time, single family, flats, apartment buildings. The decline accelerated after 67 and apparently still has not reversed itself. None of the places where we lived are still standing. The schools I attended are vacant. Highland Park's city library, which was an architectural gem, was closed in the mid 90's.
Joyce Carol Oates lived in Detroit during the time immediately preceding the 67 riot. A couple of years ago I met her at the LOC book fair in Washington. When I presented my book for her to sign I told her I was form Highland Park. She looked at me, and asked if I meant Detroit. I said yes, and she replied, "isn't it sad." And so it is. Detroit was one of the richest cities in the world in the first half of the last century.
Sam |
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johnjtaylorus
Joined: 06 Apr 2008
Posts: 618
Location: washington, dc
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| Posted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 10:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Long ago, the economist Buck Owens noted problems on the streets of Bakersfield. |
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Cosmo
Joined: 05 Mar 2007
Posts: 415
Location: Sugar Land, TX
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| Posted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 10:57 am Post subject: |
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| sgmike wrote: | | Keep in mind the Chronicle is one of the worst newspapers in the world for fact-checking and error-free reporting. |
Worst newspapers? Where do you get your "facts" from? |
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justaworker2
Joined: 01 Mar 2008
Posts: 21
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| Posted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:58 am Post subject: |
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| They ought to include Washington, DC on the list. Prime candidate. |
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Bob_H
Joined: 02 Feb 2009
Posts: 122
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| Posted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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Chicago:
10.25% sales tax.
A $300,000 home has $5-$6,000 in RE taxes.
State pensions are less than 60% funded.
The Chgo Olympic Comm.project $1.0 billion MORE in revenue here than any other city on the planet. If it's short.. tax-payers are on the hook.
Mayor is selling everything and the new owners are cranking up the costs. Skyway(tollway went from $2 to $4), parking meters(from $0.25 to $1 per hour)
Can't imagine why anyone would leave this place?
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schwarm
Joined: 28 Oct 2007
Posts: 560
Location: Lower Alabama
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| Posted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 10:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Pacific wrote: | | Interesting that 10 of the 15 have NFL franchises. I wonder how NOLA could escape this listing? |
My guess is that they are determining vacancy by dividing the number of houses on the market by the total number of houses. NOLA probably has a lot of abandoned houses that are not on the market. |
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schwarm
Joined: 28 Oct 2007
Posts: 560
Location: Lower Alabama
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| Posted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 10:38 pm Post subject: |
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double post
Last edited by schwarm on Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:54 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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grok87
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Posts: 3426
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| Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 9:49 pm Post subject: |
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| johnjtaylorus wrote: | | Long ago, the economist Buck Owens noted problems on the streets of Bakersfield. |
I came here in looking for somethin'
I couldn't find anywhere else
Well, I don't want to be nobosy,
Just want a chance to be myself.
I've done a thousand miles of thumbin',
Yes, I've worn blisters on my heels
Trying to find me something better
On the streets of Bakersfield.
Chorus:
You don't know me but you don't like me,
You say you care less how I feel
How many of you that sit and judge me
Ever walked the streets of Bakersfield?
Spent some time in San Francisco,
Spent a night there in the can
They threw this drunk man in my jail cell,
I took fifteen dollars from that man.
I left him my watch and my old house keys,
I don't like folks thinking that I'd steal
Then I thanked him as he was sleeping,
And I headed out for Bakersfield.
Chorus:
You don't know me but you don't like me,
You say you care less how I feel
How many of you that sit and judge me
Ever walked the streets of Bakersfield
How many of you that sit and judge me
Ever walked the streets of Bakersfield...
cheers,
_________________
grok, CFA |
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