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Paul Douglas Boyer
Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Posts: 95
Location: Leesburg, VA
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 Posted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 11:10 pm Post subject: Lazy Portfolio Smackdown Winners Announced |
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I've posted the results of the 2008 Lazy Portfolio Smackdown contest. Go there to see more information about each of the participants, the results of the Professional Lazy Portfolios, and game rules.
Congratulations to Cosmo, Ariel, and mudfud you each have won a copy of Index Funds: The 12-Step Program for Active Investors by Mark Hebner.
Send me a private message through this forum from your Username including your mailing address and I'll get the book out to you.
I will continue tracking these entries through 2009, hoping that it is a better year for equity returns.
The original Bogleheads forum posting with the rules and everyone's entries can be found here.
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Paul Douglas Boyer, host, MadMoneyMachine.com |
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snowman9000
Joined: 26 Feb 2008
Posts: 869
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| Posted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 11:15 pm Post subject: |
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| How bout that good old Harry Browne! |
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petrico
Joined: 07 Apr 2007
Posts: 1044
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| Posted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 2:09 am Post subject: Re: Lazy Portfolio Smackdown Winners Announced |
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Congrats to the winners. (But just remember: This is only the beginning!)
| Paul Douglas Boyer wrote: | | I will continue tracking these entries through 2009, hoping that it is a better year for equity returns. |
Thanks for the opportunity to participate and for your efforts -- this has been entertaining.
--Pete |
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Paul Douglas Boyer
Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Posts: 95
Location: Leesburg, VA
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| Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 8:54 am Post subject: |
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Bump so the winners can read this and find out they won.
Hit the PM button below to private message me your address to send you the book.
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Paul Douglas Boyer, host, MadMoneyMachine.com |
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Ariel
Joined: 10 Mar 2007
Posts: 1361
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| Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 9:44 am Post subject: |
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Thanks for running the contest, and for the news. It's nice to have picked a winner -relatively speaking in such a bad year- with a one-fund portfolio of Wellesley.
Please donate my copy of Hebner's book, which I've already read, to one of your local libraries, where others will have a chance to read it, too.
Best wishes for 2009!
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Do what you will, the capital is at hazard ... - Justice Samuel Putnam (1830), as quoted by John Bogle (1994) |
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mudfud
Joined: 20 Feb 2007
Posts: 1002
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| Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 1:16 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks! I also appreciate the kind comments...uh...I guess 
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"Are you sure you have tested an a priori hypothesis?"
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Cosmo
Joined: 05 Mar 2007
Posts: 400
Location: Sugar Land, TX
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| Posted: Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:12 pm Post subject: |
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Mr. Boyer,
Sorry, my wife has been on bedrest (we're expecting) and I have not been on the computer for some time.
I sent you a PM furnishing you my address.
Wow, this is the second Boglehead type investment contest that I have won for 2008. This is so easy! Too bad my retirement portfolio is a train wreck...
Thanks again,
Cosmo |
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grayfox
Joined: 15 Sep 2007
Posts: 1898
Location: Anytown, USA
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| Posted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 7:30 am Post subject: |
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I notice Bogle Tax-Sheltered came in second at -15.8% for 2008.
Is this right? It seems like its all stocks.
| Quote: | L27 Bogle Tax-Sheltered
Vanguard Small Cap Value Index VISVX 15%
Bridgeway Ultra-Small Company Market BRSIX 20%
Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index VGTSX 15%
Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx VTSMX 10%
Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx VEIEX 20%
Vanguard REIT Index VGSIX 20%
TOTAL 100.00% |
I thought VTSMX down about 40%, VTGSX down about 50%,
EM down about 60%, small cap value down about 50%, REIT down how much
How did it only go down -15.8% ? |
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Paul Douglas Boyer
Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Posts: 95
Location: Leesburg, VA
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| Posted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 8:32 am Post subject: |
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Thanks for point this out. It helps solve the mystery for me of why the so-called "Bogle Tax-Sheltered" portfolio in the Google Spreadsheet and on my website I copied has so many un-Bogle like funds. It is because the Google Spreadsheet mix is wrong: It should be:
Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx VTSMX 40%
Vanguard Interm-Term U.S. Treas VFITX 30%
Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index VGTSX 10%
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Secs VIPSX 10%
PIMCO Foreign Bond PFUIX 10%
That explains why it only dropped 15% in 2008.
I'll try to fix in the Google Spreadsheet, but getting data for PFUIX will be the sticky wicket.
Thanks,
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Paul Douglas Boyer, host, MadMoneyMachine.com |
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Paul Douglas Boyer
Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Posts: 95
Location: Leesburg, VA
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grayfox
Joined: 15 Sep 2007
Posts: 1898
Location: Anytown, USA
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| Posted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 11:56 am Post subject: |
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| Paul Douglas Boyer wrote: | Thanks for point this out. It helps solve the mystery for me of why the so-called "Bogle Tax-Sheltered" portfolio in the Google Spreadsheet and on my website I copied has so many un-Bogle like funds. It is because the Google Spreadsheet mix is wrong: It should be:
Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx VTSMX 40%
Vanguard Interm-Term U.S. Treas VFITX 30%
Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index VGTSX 10%
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Secs VIPSX 10%
PIMCO Foreign Bond PFUIX 10%
That explains why it only dropped 15% in 2008.
I'll try to fix in the Google Spreadsheet, but getting data for PFUIX will be the sticky wicket.
Thanks, |
OK, so Bogle Tax-Sheltered it has 50% stocks.
It looks like the portfolios order of returns is close to the order of the percent of stock. I plotted return vs. percent stocks and fitted a line R^2-=0.92 so 92% of the 2008 return was explained by percent in stock. I can't help but conclude that percent in stock is really the only number that makes any difference. |
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snowman9000
Joined: 26 Feb 2008
Posts: 869
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| Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2010 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Looks like the Smackdown has not been updated recently. Here's hoping 09 results will be posted. |
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Paul Douglas Boyer
Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Posts: 95
Location: Leesburg, VA
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| Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2010 4:57 pm Post subject: |
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| snowman9000 wrote: | | Looks like the Smackdown has not been updated recently. Here's hoping 09 results will be posted. |
You are in luck!
http://madmoneymachine.com/201....d-1-years/
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Paul Douglas Boyer, host, MadMoneyMachine.com |
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snowman9000
Joined: 26 Feb 2008
Posts: 869
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| Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:22 pm Post subject: |
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Neat!
Boy, I am surprised how widespread the negative results are for the two and three year returns. I would have thought a few of the conventional mixes would have gotten above water over those periods. |
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Steelersfan
Joined: 19 Jun 2008
Posts: 826
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| Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:53 pm Post subject: |
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I couldn't help turning my eyes to someone who gets some stick here from time to time. Not that I'm trying to beat down on Ben, but these results are right at the bottom of the heap:
Ben Stein Retirement (3-yr, 2-yr, 1-yr) -34.0% -24.3% 19.7%
Least you think his 1-yr results are OK, they're 7th from the bottom.
OK, so maybe I am trying to beat down on him. |
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grayfox
Joined: 15 Sep 2007
Posts: 1898
Location: Anytown, USA
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| Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2010 10:09 pm Post subject: |
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Great Information!
Mad Money Machine: Lazy Portfolio Results for 3.2 and 1 Years
http://madmoneymachine.com/201....d-1-years/
Out of 28 Lazy Portfolios
All 28 (100%) were positive in 2009
Only 2 (7.14%) were positive in 2008/2009
Only four (14.29%) were positive in 2007/2008/2009
Yet on another thread 28 out of 59 (47.46%) Bogelheads reported positive returns for 2008/2009
I can only conclude that most Bogelheads must not be practicing pure Buy, Hold & Rebalance. They must be either stock picking or (gasp) market timing to beat all 26 B&H Lazy Portfolios.
Some of the experts they creamed included David Swenson, Scott Brown, John Bogle, Andrew Tobias, Bill Schultheis, Merriman, Ben Stein, William Bernstein and others.
I guess shows that the amateurs can beat the experts and market timing beats Buy & Hold. |
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ducati08
Joined: 11 Oct 2009
Posts: 25
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| Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2010 10:15 pm Post subject: |
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| grayfox wrote: | Yet on another thread 28 out of 59 (47.46%) Bogelheads reported positive returns for 2008/2009
I can only conclude that most Bogelheads must not be practicing pure Buy, Hold & Rebalance. They must be either stock picking or (gasp) market timing to beat all 26 B&H Lazy Portfolios.
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I imagine the sample in the thread with the self-reported results suffers from bias.
Don |
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Ariel
Joined: 10 Mar 2007
Posts: 1361
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| Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2010 10:19 pm Post subject: |
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| grayfox wrote: | Great Information!
Mad Money Machine: Lazy Portfolio Results for 3.2 and 1 Years
http://madmoneymachine.com/201....d-1-years/
Out of 28 Lazy Portfolios
All 28 (100%) were positive in 2009
Only 2 (7.14%) were positive in 2008/2009
Only four (14.29%) were positive in 2007/2008/2009
Yet on another thread 28 out of 59 (47.46%) Bogelheads reported positive returns for 2008/2009
I can only conclude that most Bogelheads must not be practicing pure Buy, Hold & Rebalance. They must be either stock picking or (gasp) market timing to beat all 26 B&H Lazy Portfolios.
Some of the experts they creamed included David Swenson, Scott Brown, John Bogle, Andrew Tobias, Bill Schultheis, Merriman, Ben Stein, William Bernstein and others.
I guess shows that the amateurs can beat the experts and market timing beats Buy & Hold. |
Interesting. I beat all 28 of them over the 2007/2008/2009 timeframe with a cumulative return of +23.7% 
That despite my relatively weak +10.7% in 2009 return, which beat only one of the listed portfolios. It sure helps to avoid big losses 
It's also interesting to see how well Wellesley (VWINX) fund did, with a cumulative return over those three years of +10.5%, beating all but the two permanent portfolio variants.
The Balanced (VBINX) fund managed -0.9% from 2007-2009. still beating most of the listed lazy portfolios.
[edited to add VWINX and VBINX returns]
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Do what you will, the capital is at hazard ... - Justice Samuel Putnam (1830), as quoted by John Bogle (1994) |
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Paul Douglas Boyer
Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Posts: 95
Location: Leesburg, VA
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| Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2010 10:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Ariel wrote: |
Interesting. I beat all 28 of them over the 2007/2008/2009 timeframe with a cumulative return of +23.7%
That despite my relatively weak +10.7% in 2009 return, which beat only one of the listed portfolios. It sure helps to avoid big losses |
I'm seeing that VWIAX returned 9.4% for the three years with a Sharpe Ratio of 0.2. How did you manage to get 23.7%? You must have made some good buy and sell decisions in the fund? Note that I am not being cynical, I genuinely want to know how you did it.
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Paul Douglas Boyer, host, MadMoneyMachine.com |
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Ariel
Joined: 10 Mar 2007
Posts: 1361
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| Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2010 10:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Paul Douglas Boyer wrote: | | Ariel wrote: |
Interesting. I beat all 28 of them over the 2007/2008/2009 timeframe with a cumulative return of +23.7%
That despite my relatively weak +10.7% in 2009 return, which beat only one of the listed portfolios. It sure helps to avoid big losses |
I'm seeing that VWIAX returned 9.4% for the three years with a Sharpe Ratio of 0.2. How did you manage to get 23.7%? You must have made some good buy and sell decisions in the fund? Note that I am not being cynical, I genuinely want to know how you did it. |
Hi Paul - I'm talking about my real-world portfolio that returned 23.7% cumulative, not the VWIAX (Wellesley Admiral) that I entered in your contest as the simplest possible lazy portfolio with just one fund. (And yes, in my personal portfolio I've done a lot of non-Boglehead timing. There was a long thread on this board where I posted all my trades in real time for about half a year while the markets crashed, and I did very well. I plan to simplify things early this year, as I should probably quit while I'm ahead ...)
By the way, for VWIAX, the cumulative three-year return should be (1 + 5.76%) * (1 - 9.79%) * (1 + 16.14%) - 1 = 10.8%. [I suspect your figure may be missing a distribution. See annual returns from Vanguard link below.)
https://personal.vanguard.com/....t=tab%3A1a
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Do what you will, the capital is at hazard ... - Justice Samuel Putnam (1830), as quoted by John Bogle (1994) |
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snowman9000
Joined: 26 Feb 2008
Posts: 869
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| Posted: Tue Jan 05, 2010 1:50 pm Post subject: |
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The funny thing about quitting while you are ahead is that you still have to pick an AA to hold. 
I quit while I was ahead in 07 and took a loss in 08, my first in 14 years. So overall it was a good run, but it smarted to take that loss passively. If you can make the good picks, you might want to keep going. I still have a variable portfolio which is about 1/3 of my money.
And yes, not losing is extremely beneficial to your returns in the long run. |
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