Bogleheads

[Dylanwise]

http://www.marketwatch.com/new....siteid=rss

[ziggy29]

It's interesting that in his 30 reasons, he didn't include the constant financial media and 24-hour news channel doomsday reminders (like this article) that convince people and businesses to keep their wallets nailed shut and help make a slowdown even worse.

[Easy Rhino]

Gee, Paul Farrell usually seems more sanguine. I'm annoyed.

[SkepticalGuy]

[cflannagan]

[guest42]

Seems to me, it is a more balanced view to have "the depression" view (Paul Farrell), laid side by side with the "bull market" view (Warren Buffet). No one knows. No one ever knows. I find it helpful to view my investments in these 2 contrasting lights. Makes the whole world feel more balanced to me. For media to only present a "bull" case, is what is irresponsible.

rm42

[nisiprius]

Wouldn't it be nice if the financial future were more boring than anyone imagines?

Dow 15,000 by 2023 and nothing exciting between now and then!

All the bailouts and economic programs work, just not very well!

Boomers retire, but have to scrimp!

Social Security benefits get cut 10% in 2042!

If someone would predict that, I'd believe it.
_________________
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

[madsinger]

Before I go to sleep at night, I wonder if tomorrow is the day Moody's and S&P will announce a downgrade of U.S. government bonds.

I'm sorry...does anybody, ANYBODY? give a *&#^!& what Moody's and S&P say anymore? Enron? AIG? Fannie? Freddie? They are useless. Worse than useless...dangerous.

-Brad.

[dbr]

[JohnDoe2004]

I'm gonna go on the record and say we will not have a depression.

[ken250]

Brad,

You go that right.

Especially re Fannie and Freddie....several years ago a "commission" charged with oversight of Fannie and Freddie reported major inconsistencies in reporting, basically book-cooking...which we now know was 100% correct. And yet, the rating agencies gave them a clean bill of health.

[Gregory]

[SkepticalGuy]

[Gregory]

[SkepticalGuy]

[Gregory]

[SkepticalGuy]

Gregory wrote:

[mlebuf]

Paul Farrell's columns combine the best of Benjamin Graham along with the worst of Miss Cleo. He writes a bunch of terrific columns about passive investing and occasionally writes a column where he predicts a major catastrophe. A few years ago he predicted a second major terrorist attack on US soil by a certain date. It didn't happen. Will he be right this time? The odds are overwhelmingly high that he won't.

Thought for scary times: All anxieties are fantasies. Assuming you had a good plan prior to the downturn, stay the course. This too shall pass.

Best wishes,
Michael
_________________
Best wishes,
Michael

Invest your time actively and your money passively.

[gizzsdad]

Do you believe that less reporting would be a good thing? Or just more selective reporting? If the latter, how would you suggest that financial stories be edited?[/quote]

Not less reporting. But how about a few reports about the many tens of millions (perhaps hundreds of millions) of people like me who have never been late with any payment, let alone a mortgage payment, pay off our entire credit card balance every month, and save 25-30% of our income for retirement - yet still manage to buy cars and pay for our kids' college.

I honestly believe I am in the VAST majority.

[HerbertSitz]

[Gregory]

[Gregory]

[tetractys]

By 2011?!! Sheesh, give me a break!
_________________
"Near panic conditions prevail in financial markets. People want to know what lies ahead. I cannot tell them because I do not know." -- George Soros

[SkepticalGuy]

[Lbill]

I'm going on the record that we will have a depression and stocks will still be down 40% after 8 years - whoops, that already happened! I guess I missed it.
_________________
"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." ~ Mark Twain
"Everyone has a plan, until they get hit." ~ Mike Tyson

[Rick Ferri]

.
This article follows the standard "GIVE ME MEDIA ATTENTION" format. Make an outrageous bullish or bearish prediction and the media will come flocking to your door.

Here is my prediction:

"Rick Ferri says the stock market will double by 2011!"

I have no idea if it will or not, but if the media gives me the attention, I can probably come up with 30 reasons why it might.

Rick Ferri

[AnotherCFP]

Buffett, Bogle, and basically anyone who's sensible understands that the likelihood of above-average returns on equity investments over the next ten plus years has increased greatly over the last few months. People have criticized a number of Buffett's recent moves, saying he's mistimed things and missed the bottom. What they don't realize is that Buffett isn't concerned about timing the bottom, because he knows nobody can do it reliably. He makes his moves when he knows the fundamentals have moved greatly in his favor for buying investments that will be held for the long-term.

To suggest that Buffett's broad-stroke long-term predictions are somehow on same level of someone who's predicting a "depression in 2011" are entirely misguided. One is reliable, the other not. For what it's worth, it's entirely possible they could both be right. If both turn out to be right, though, one will have turned out correct (Buffett) because the conclusion was a reasonable one to draw from current circumstances, the other (Farrell) will have turned out to be right because he was lucky.






Buffett might not be calling the bottom but I read that he just sold some ten year puts on the S&P that earned Berkshire a cool 4.85 Billion. That's called putting your money where you mouth is.

As for P. Farrell, everything i've seen from this guy is complete doom and gloom. I just hope he doesn't convince those of us with long term time horizons to take the biggest risk of all.........not taking enough[/quote]
_________________
"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked."
W.B.

[snowman9000]

[robot]

[Kenster1]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27793216/

[Valuethinker]

[daryll40]

I always thought Farrell was a fairly mainstream guy. And while his Depression prediction cannot be ignored, it's comforting to find out that he previously wrote a book on Astrology and investing.

[HerbertSitz]

[ziggy29]

[HerbertSitz]

[daryll40]

Yeah, I am the one who said it. And what I meant to say is that it gives me comfort to find out that this doom and gloomer can perhaps be ignored since his track record shows that he believes (or did) in astrology to predict markets.

I am not saying, by the way, that he'll is or will be wrong. But what I am saying is that I can't find him credible because of his association with astrology. Previously I thought he was credible.

[fluffyistaken]

[VictoriaF]

I frequently hear to Paul Farrell on NPR, and usually he makes good sense. The references to astrology did not seem to fit his radio personality and so I did some research.

On 26 May 2008, Farrell had a pretty good article "Soros' 'New Paradigm,' the next 'Superbubble'"
http://www.marketwatch.com/new....dist=msr_8
where he reviewed a recent Soros' book and noted