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UK based diehard-style proposed portfolio -- comments?

 
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TedSwippet



Joined: 04 Jun 2007
Posts: 238

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:00 am    Post subject: UK based diehard-style proposed portfolio -- comments? Reply with quote

I'm trying to put together a balanced 50:50 stock/bond UK based portfolio that broadly adheres to general diehard ideas.

After some um-ing, er-ing, and pondering, I've come up with the following. Before implementing this plan, I'd value any comments, criticisms, or ideas for improvement.

Thanks for any feedback.


Age -- mid forties (brown hair, blue eyes, GSOH). Married, no debt, emergency fund taken care of. Portfolio under consideration is all outside tax-advantaged accounts -- I do have a modest retirement account, but it's around 10% of total assets, and already in balanced funds anyway so just easier to ignore for now.


Proposed:

20% Fidelity UK index fund (F190, FTSE UK all share, 0.3% TER)
25% iShares World index (IWRD, MSCI world, 0.5% TER)
5% iShares Emerging Markets index (IEEM, MSCI EM, 0.75% TER)
25% iShares All stocks gilt (IGLT, UK govt bonds, 0.2% TER)
25% iShares Index linked gilt (INXG, UK index linked govt bonds, 0.25% TER)


Observations:

There's about 10% UK in IWRD, so a bit of overlap here. These proportions bring the stock allocation close (enough) to a target of 50% home country bias. The overlap is all large-cap, but then about 85% or so of the UK all-share index is large-cap anyway.

The UK does not, apparently, tax the inflation uplift in index linked bonds, only the true gain, so having these in a taxable portfolio should be acceptable. Similarly, I understand there's no UK CGT on any capital gain in UK govt bonds (and symmetrically, no CGT deduction on losses).

No real estate here. The iShares UK REITs don't look particularly appealing (unless I'm missing something), and may also be unattractive from the tax perspective due to return arriving almost entirely as dividends. And I own a house.

The emerging markets TER is higher than I'd like, but what can you do?


Questions:

Anything completely screwy about the above? Have I got the tax aspects of it about right?

These seem about the lowest cost way of achieving my desired allocation and risk profile. Anyone got any lower ones? (Vanguard really doesn't have a worthwhile retail presence in the UK, which is a pity because they could probably do very well here if they did.)

Is splitting the bond allocation right down the middle wildly inappropriate?

I've picked iShares rather than, say, Lyxor or DB because I prefer replication to synthesis. That said, iShares seem to sample rather than full replication. IWRD, for example, has only around 650 holdings. Does that make IWRD a bad idea in any way?

The volumes of these iShares on the LSE aren't high. However, these shares may trade across other EU exchanges, so that might make them seem thinner than they really are. Anything I need to watch for when purchasing or selling (limit orders, for example)?

DCA (PCA in sterling) worthwhile, or not? For the ETFs, I could average quarterly or six-weekly for a year or so without sizable cost issues. Alternatively, any issues going 'all in' now, especially on govt bonds with interest rate cuts likely to be just around the corner?
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chaz



Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Posts: 6639

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can get some ideas on thread #22941. Good luck.
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Valuethinker



Joined: 11 May 2007
Posts: 12890

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:20 pm    Post subject: Re: UK based diehard-style proposed portfolio -- comments? Reply with quote

TedSwippet wrote:
I'm trying to put together a balanced 50:50 stock/bond UK based portfolio that broadly adheres to general diehard ideas.

After some um-ing, er-ing, and pondering, I've come up with the following. Before implementing this plan, I'd value any comments, criticisms, or ideas for improvement.

Thanks for any feedback.


Age -- mid forties (brown hair, blue eyes, GSOH). Married, no debt, emergency fund taken care of. Portfolio under consideration is all outside tax-advantaged accounts -- I do have a modest retirement account, but it's around 10% of total assets, and already in balanced funds anyway so just easier to ignore for now.



put your gilts in a self-directed ISA.

Quote:

Proposed:

20% Fidelity UK index fund (F190, FTSE UK all share, 0.3% TER)
25% iShares World index (IWRD, MSCI world, 0.5% TER)
5% iShares Emerging Markets index (IEEM, MSCI EM, 0.75% TER)
25% iShares All stocks gilt (IGLT, UK govt bonds, 0.2% TER)
25% iShares Index linked gilt (INXG, UK index linked govt bonds, 0.25% TER)


I don't have any issues with this. Current real interest rates on IL gilts are not attractive. Counterargument: they never get above about 1.7% real.



Quote:

Observations:

There's about 10% UK in IWRD, so a bit of overlap here. These proportions bring the stock allocation close (enough) to a target of 50% home country bias. The overlap is all large-cap, but then about 85% or so of the UK all-share index is large-cap anyway.


Too much of a home-country bias. The proximate problem is the UK index is heavily skewed towards a handful of companies (HSBC, BP, Shell, Vodafone etc.).

My conclusion is you might seek an additional 5% in international exposure.

Quote:

The UK does not, apparently, tax the inflation uplift in index linked bonds, only the true gain, so having these in a taxable portfolio should be acceptable. Similarly, I understand there's no UK CGT on any capital gain in UK govt bonds (and symmetrically, no CGT deduction on losses).


The latter is true. Not sure about the former (not questioning what you say-- never checked).

Quote:

No real estate here. The iShares UK REITs don't look particularly appealing (unless I'm missing something), and may also be unattractive from the tax perspective due to return arriving almost entirely as dividends. And I own a house.


Effective UK tax rate on dividends is c. 36% I believe (dividend tax credit). I agree re the situation with REITs. If you look at property stocks in the 90s, they were dogs for years.

Quote:

The emerging markets TER is higher than I'd like, but what can you do?


Questions:

Anything completely screwy about the above? Have I got the tax aspects of it about right?


Pretty good. You seem to have a handle on the tax issues.

Note at 40% marginal rate, your after-tax after inflation return on gilts is just about negative.

Quote:

These seem about the lowest cost way of achieving my desired allocation and risk profile. Anyone got any lower ones? (Vanguard really doesn't have a worthwhile retail presence in the UK, which is a pity because they could probably do very well here if they did.)

Is splitting the bond allocation right down the middle wildly inappropriate?


No other than my caveat about real bond yields.

Quote:

I've picked iShares rather than, say, Lyxor or DB because I prefer replication to synthesis. That said, iShares seem to sample rather than full replication. IWRD, for example, has only around 650 holdings. Does that make IWRD a bad idea in any way?


No. Tracking error should be de minimis. I have more confidence in iShares.

Quote:

The volumes of these iShares on the LSE aren't high. However, these shares may trade across other EU exchanges, so that might make them seem thinner than they really are. Anything I need to watch for when purchasing or selling (limit orders, for example)?


I'm no good at this. I just put the orders on during trading hours and take 'at best'. The pain is taken to achieve my asset allocation goals. The bigger risk is simply that these are very small ETFs (not yours) and they eventually get wound up.

Quote:

DCA (PCA in sterling) worthwhile, or not? For the ETFs, I could average quarterly or six-weekly for a year or so without sizable cost issues. Alternatively, any issues going 'all in' now, especially on govt bonds with interest rate cuts likely to be just around the corner?


DCA is essentially a 'cop out'. But given market volatility, I am minded to do it, generally. We've had days of late when markets move 10%, and dealing spreads correspondingly high.
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TedSwippet



Joined: 04 Jun 2007
Posts: 238

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Many thanks for the comments, Valuethinker. Some notes...

Quote:
put your gilts in a self-directed ISA.


If only. Maybe in a couple of decades...

Quote:
Too much of a home-country bias. The proximate problem is the UK index is heavily skewed towards a handful of companies (HSBC, BP, Shell, Vodafone etc.).

My conclusion is you might seek an additional 5% in international exposure.


The large-cap nature of even the Fidelity all-stock fund is a bit of a worry. One possibility is to round this out with an extra dollop of the iShares FTSE-250 mid-cap ETF. Alternatively, as you note, a bit less UK and a bit more elsewhere.

More IWRD? Or something other? I'm torn between a reluctance to have more than 25% of a portfolio in a single vehicle versus an alternative reluctance to add a sixth ETF/fund.

Quote:
Note at 40% marginal rate, your after-tax after inflation return on gilts is just about negative.


Govt bonds seem to just about tread water for the long haul, no matter what. Presumably an observation rather than something I can remedy?

Quote:
DCA is essentially a 'cop out'...


And yet like you I'm still inclined to add an element of it. For me, and maybe I'm just chicken, spreading this over a period is the only way I can get past analysis paralysis.
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Valuethinker



Joined: 11 May 2007
Posts: 12890

PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TedSwippet wrote:
Many thanks for the comments, Valuethinker. Some notes...

Quote:
put your gilts in a self-directed ISA.


If only. Maybe in a couple of decades...



Ted. Unless you are entirely in personal pensions/ SIPPS, I don't understand that comment? If true then you don't need to worry about taxes and gilts.

If not true, you can open up a s-d ISA for nothing with SelfTrade. Contribute up to £7,200 a year. Take it out when you feel like it. Pay no tax on the income earned within it (but lose the dividend tax credit). Pay no capital gains (but at 18% better to take that pain in the outside accounts).

Or did you simply mean your gilts allocation is too large? A problem, but a quality problem. Make sure you have paid off any debt (including mortgage) and reduce your bond allocation by that amount (highest after tax IRR). Consider increasing your equity allocation eg with a mix of utility and tobacco stocks. Don't ignore National Savings index-linked certificates.

Quote:

Quote:
Too much of a home-country bias. The proximate problem is the UK index is heavily skewed towards a handful of companies (HSBC, BP, Shell, Vodafone etc.).

My conclusion is you might seek an additional 5% in international exposure.


The large-cap nature of even the Fidelity all-stock fund is a bit of a worry. One possibility is to round this out with an extra dollop of the iShares FTSE-250 mid-cap ETF. Alternatively, as you note, a bit less UK and a bit more elsewhere.

More IWRD? Or something other? I'm torn between a reluctance to have more than 25% of a portfolio in a single vehicle versus an alternative reluctance to add a sixth ETF/fund.


I'd have to surf around but yes, you could invest in another ETF which does the same thing. I would probably be fairly relaxed with IWRD.

You could put 5% in a FTSE250 fund out of the UK allocation.

Quote:

Quote:
Note at 40% marginal rate, your after-tax after inflation return on gilts is just about negative.


Govt bonds seem to just about tread water for the long haul, no matter what. Presumably an observation rather than something I can remedy?


Only unless you can do something with self directed ISAs or with personal pensions. Then your real returns should be c. 1-2%, long term.
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TedSwippet



Joined: 04 Jun 2007
Posts: 238

PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 5:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks again for the reply. Some additional notes/clarifications:

Quote:
Unless you are entirely in personal pensions/ SIPPS, I don't understand that comment? If true then you don't need to worry about taxes and gilts... Or did you simply mean your gilts allocation is too large?


The latter. Though I'll of course start ISAs this year, it will be many, many years before they make a visible dent in my portfolio.

Quote:
Only unless you can do something with self directed ISAs or with personal pensions. Then your real returns should be c. 1-2%, long term.


I've been working abroad for quite a while, and just returned to the UK. Since starting work here I've been putting 80% of salary into pension (could go higher), so in time this will provide somewhere to put govt bonds. Again, however, not something to accomplish overnight. Overall taxable portfolio is >10x salary, and current retirement savings somewhat under 1x salary.

Finally, thanks for the notes on IWRD allocation and/or FTSE-250 as ways to avoid concentration in just a few UK stocks.
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Valuethinker



Joined: 11 May 2007
Posts: 12890

PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TedSwippet wrote:

I've been working abroad for quite a while, and just returned to the UK. Since starting work here I've been putting 80% of salary into pension (could go higher), so in time this will provide somewhere to put govt bonds. Again, however, not something to accomplish overnight. Overall taxable portfolio is >10x salary, and current retirement savings somewhat under 1x salary.

Finally, thanks for the notes on IWRD allocation and/or FTSE-250 as ways to avoid concentration in just a few UK stocks.


OK put your fixed income into the pension if you can?

Otherwise consider tilting more towards equities-- consider even selectively buying yield oriented utilities (I would say a mix of Scottish & Southern, United Utilities, National Grid, possibly Vodafone-- I haven't done the work on these stocks, but none should be highly dangerous).
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TedSwippet



Joined: 04 Jun 2007
Posts: 238

PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 7:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the responses; much appreciated. One other quick thought...

Is ETF purchase timing important? In particular, should one avoid purchasing just before ex-dividend date? Getting perhaps 3% of capital back as a taxable dividend about a month after investing doesn't seem desirable.

As I understand it, this isn't a problem for OEICs because they provide equalisation with a first dividend payment. Seems like it could be a consideration for plain old shares, though, and so perhaps also ETFs (and if so, maybe more acute for gilt ETFs with no builtin expectation of future capital gain).

A known problem? Or non-issue? A good UK-specific Googling turned up nothing useful either way.

Thanks.
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cjking



Joined: 30 Jun 2008
Posts: 805

PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would suggest you check the spreads before trading, one ishare ETF I checked had a huge spread, and I nearly crossed if off my list of possible investments permanently, however when I checked the spread again a few hours later it was very tight. (Can't remember if it was the global equity or global property, however for both I suggest you only trade in the UK afternoon when US markets are also open, which I think should narrow the spreads.)

If you do want to add some property, may I suggest you check out UKCM. Yield of about 7%, discount of 23% (possibly anticipating the coming NAV declines) and no gearing at all. Second safest fund would be FCPT, with very similar figures, but 24% loan-to-value gearing. Or you could consider iShares global property tracker, currently yield 9.13%. I have found closed-end property funds to have a very high correlation with general equities since I moved into them at the beginning of the year though, so there may not be any point, in terms of your overall strategy.
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TedSwippet



Joined: 04 Jun 2007
Posts: 238

PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I would suggest you check the spreads before trading...


Thank you for the note. It's not something I'd considered, and probably a good idea to do this. As you suggest, IWRD could well be particularly susceptible here.

It's surprising how these timing issues stack up, even when not trying to time the actual market in any way.
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