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Bogleheads
Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle
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wab
Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Posts: 559
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 Posted: Thu Sep 11, 2008 9:47 pm Post subject: Technical Analysis Beats Buy and Hold |
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Catchy title, eh?
I was checking out a wood-working site when I discovered the author's very clever Technical Analysis validation site:
http://www.chartgame.com/
I tried it a couple of times, and I managed to beat the market (with no TA skills even -- I relied only on momentum).
More interestingly, as of today, the total annual return for all players is 11.51% vs 10.98% for buy and hold.
http://chartgame.com/playedlist.cgi?latest
The basic idea is that you're presented with a historical stock chart and some T/A metrics, and your job is to buy or sell based on the chart as the virtual date ticks by. Then the stock is revealed and your performance is compared to buy-and-hold for that stock.
It would be even more interesting if you could go short.... |
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grabiner
Joined: 21 Feb 2007
Posts: 4033
Location: Columbia, MD
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| Posted: Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:05 pm Post subject: Re: Technical Analysis Beats Buy and Hold |
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| wab wrote: | Catchy title, eh?
I was checking out a wood-working site when I discovered the author's very clever Technical Analysis validation site:
http://www.chartgame.com/
I tried it a couple of times, and I managed to beat the market (with no TA skills even -- I relied only on momentum).
More interestingly, as of today, the total annual return for all players is 11.51% vs 10.98% for buy and hold. |
I suspect there is some survivorship bias involved; players are more likely to quit if their first few scores are bad, and only players who have played enough to qualify make the total list.
I played four times, also going by momentum, beating the stock three of those four, and missing the fourth because of failed execution (I either misclicked or double-clicked and didn't buy a stock the day before it jumped).
The score is based on the average per day invested, with no trading costs, therefore, a player who traded at random would tie the market average.
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David Grabiner |
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Unormal
Joined: 20 Nov 2007
Posts: 304
Location: the middle
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 10:10 am Post subject: Re: Technical Analysis Beats Buy and Hold |
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| wab wrote: | Catchy title, eh?
I was checking out a wood-working site when I discovered the author's very clever Technical Analysis validation site:
http://www.chartgame.com/
I tried it a couple of times, and I managed to beat the market (with no TA skills even -- I relied only on momentum).
More interestingly, as of today, the total annual return for all players is 11.51% vs 10.98% for buy and hold.
http://chartgame.com/playedlist.cgi?latest
The basic idea is that you're presented with a historical stock chart and some T/A metrics, and your job is to buy or sell based on the chart as the virtual date ticks by. Then the stock is revealed and your performance is compared to buy-and-hold for that stock.
It would be even more interesting if you could go short.... |
Also, I doubt this game takes transaction costs and taxes into account. |
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