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Interesting perspective on annuities

 
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TimDex



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 761

PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 5:20 pm    Post subject: Interesting perspective on annuities Reply with quote

My approach to annuities has always been that they have a place, and can be useful to investors.

On efmoody.com (commentary) I ran across a different perspective, one I hadn't seen before:

Quote:
WRONG! WRONG! (Johnathan Clements WSJ 2003) Regarding, "Suppose a 65-year-old woman invested $100,000 in an immediate-fixed annuity. That would buy her monthly income of $613, according to Berkshire Hathaway's Web site (www.brkdirect.com). True, that's equal to a 7.4% yield, far above the 4% yield on 10-year Treasury notes."

It's totally wrong. If you are getting simply are return ON your money, the yield on a Treasury is fine. But you get your money back.

You do NOT get your money back in an annuity as a lump sum- you are getting part of your capital returned on an monthly/annual basis and reflects part of the monthly payment. There is not an insurance company anyplace that can offer a 7.4% return.

How do you figure the return? It's $100,000= present value (pv); $613= monthly return (pmt). Then you need n= periods of time. How can you figure that when you don't know the actuarial lifetime of a 65 year old woman? Simple, you use standard life tables. Rounding to 20 years and searching for return (i), the actual return is 4.17%- a far cry from 7.4%.

So the annuitant gets the same return as a current treasury and loses the flexibility for the next 20 years in case something goes wrong.


I see the point, but I think immediate annuities are still useful for an investor wanting a guaranteed income. But I hadn't seen this argument before and thought I would post it.

Tim
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Taylor Larimore
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Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Posts: 7851
Location: Miami Florida

PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 5:27 pm    Post subject: Annuities have a place Reply with quote

Hi Tim:

You wrote:
Quote:
My approach to annuities has always been that they have a place, and can be useful to investors.


In my opinion, you and Mr. Moody are both correct.

Best wishes.
Taylor
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BrianTH



Joined: 20 Feb 2007
Posts: 1344

PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Right, but that is just underscoring the primary purpose of an immediate annuity, which is to provide longevity insurance. So, for example, if you took your $100,000, put it into something returning 4.17%, and also took out some capital each year for a total of 7.4%, then at the end of your expected lifespan you should reach zero. But what if you then live longer? Oops, you are out of cash. But the immediate annuity will keep paying as long as you hold on (and obviously, that extra money comes from those who do not make it to their expected lifespan). So, the immediate annuity protects you against unexpected longevity.

And this is crucial because one of the major reasons why safe withdrawal rates are so low is that people have to self-provide for longevity. Immediate annuities free you of this need and so allow you to increase your safe withdrawal rates.

Of course, nothing comes free, and there is a loser in all this: your heirs. If you have to self-provide for longevity, and if you die around on schedule or earlier, they get the money you were holding onto. And odds are you will do that--that is where the actuarial tables come from. But with the immediate annuity, they get nothing no matter when you die (assuming no special provision to that effect, which will cost you).

So, the immediate annuity serves to increase your withdrawal rate by freeing you of the need to provide against longevity, but at a cost to your heirs. And when you view it that way, those numbers look pretty good, meaning it does not look like the insurance company is taking too much extra for itself. Just don't ask your heirs to be happy about it.
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Shakespeare



Joined: 06 Apr 2007
Posts: 16
Location: Great White North

PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Just don't ask your heirs to be happy about it.
A heircut? Shocked

...exit stage left quickly....
_________________
Watch out for stobor. - R.A. Heinlein, Tunnel in the Sky
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grumel



Joined: 30 Mar 2007
Posts: 1629
Location: Germany

PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like with all kind of insurances: you are always better off withouth them, if you can afford to do so, cause the insurance company will make a good profit and has some aditional cost compared to simple investing. However what are people suposed to do that cant afford ? Bet on social securtiy ? If i remember right there was a lot of complaining about ppl doing this on that forum. So be happy if people with far less money then the average boglehead care for themself.
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alvinsch



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 1575
Location: Northwest

PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 7:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is the government subsidizing longevity insurance? Say the estate tax returns to taxing everything above $1M and one has a $2M estate. If one were to annuitize $1M to remove it from the estate tax, then wouldn't that effectively raise one's after tax "return" from the annuity making it more attractive to those who will be affected by the estate tax?

Is this a fair way to look at it?

BTW: I'm retired but haven't annuitized but can see how it might make sense at some point. Hard to mathematically model, but I'm pretty sure money is much more valuable to me while living than when I'm dead. Wink

- Al
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grabiner



Joined: 20 Feb 2007
Posts: 3159
Location: Columbia, MD

PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 7:18 pm    Post subject: Annuity is not an estate tax subsidy Reply with quote

alvinsch wrote:
Is the government subsidizing longevity insurance? Say the estate tax returns to taxing everything above $1M and one has a $2M estate. If one were to annuitize $1M to remove it from the estate tax, then wouldn't that effectively raise one's after tax "return" from the annuity making it more attractive to those who will be affected by the estate tax?


No, this doesn't work out. If you don't annuitize the $1M, you'll use some part of the $2M in paying the expenses that would otherwise be paid from the annuity returns; only what is left over will make it into your taxable estate.
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alvinsch



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 1575
Location: Northwest

PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 7:43 pm    Post subject: Re: Annuity is not an estate tax subsidy Reply with quote

grabiner wrote:
alvinsch wrote:
Is the government subsidizing longevity insurance? Say the estate tax returns to taxing everything above $1M and one has a $2M estate. If one were to annuitize $1M to remove it from the estate tax, then wouldn't that effectively raise one's after tax "return" from the annuity making it more attractive to those who will be affected by the estate tax?


No, this doesn't work out. If you don't annuitize the $1M, you'll use some part of the $2M in paying the expenses that would otherwise be paid from the annuity returns; only what is left over will make it into your taxable estate.

Yes, I agree that some part of the $2M would be used to pay expenses but as long as less than $1M was used to pay those expenses, one is still paying some estate taxes if they don't annuitize making the annuitized option slightly more attractive versus someone who pays no estate tax.

Even if half the people spent more than $1m and half spent less, you'd still have half the people getting some tax advantage over those not subject to the estate tax.

So it still seems to me that an immediate annuity is slightly more attractive to someone subject to estate tax than someone who's not.

- Al
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bob90245



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3616

PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 7:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TimDex and BrianTH,

Thanks for the info. It helps me up the learning curve when it comes to understanding immediate fixed annuities. I've copied your comments to my notes along with the rest of the research I've done on my website HERE.

I also found an annuity calculator here:

http://www.moneychimp.com/arti....payout.htm
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dm200



Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 2703
Location: Washington DC area Born 1946

PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2007 9:30 am    Post subject: I am trying to Reply with quote

understand (and evaluate) immediate annuities as part of my retirement. Posts like this help to understand this very confusing topic.

One type of immediate annuity that I am trying to understand is the variable immediate annuity. I think this is different from the "Variable annuity" that is often sold to folks, and often has high expenses, and is inappropriate for most folks.

So, my confusion is the use of the term "Variable annuity" for what seems to be an immediate annuity (or annuitizing with a payout that you will not outlive) with some sore of return that is not fixed and has some possibility (or probability) of growth.

Vanguard has these and I am trying to figure them out.

dan
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bob90245



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3616

PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2007 11:42 am    Post subject: Re: I am trying to Reply with quote

dm200 wrote:
One type of immediate annuity that I am trying to understand is the variable immediate annuity. I think this is different from the "Variable annuity" that is often sold to folks, and often has high expenses, and is inappropriate for most folks.

The popular "variable annuity that is often sold to folks" is a Deferred annuity.

dm200 wrote:
So, my confusion is the use of the term "Variable annuity" for what seems to be an immediate annuity (or annuitizing with a payout that you will not outlive) with some sore of return that is not fixed and has some possibility (or probability) of growth.

In contrast with the fixed annuity, the variable annuity typically has sub-accounts which are like stock mutual funds. So the payout is dependent on the performance of the funds that comprise the sub-accounts in the variable annuity.

I found the following paper in the Reference Library that explains variable immediate annuities:

Annuities and Inflation by Thomas G. Walsh, F.S.A., C.F.P.

Quote:
A guaranteed lifetime annuity can maximize a retiree's annual income and provide an income that cannot be outlived, as discussed in our first paper, "The (Mostly) Pros and (Few) Cons of Lifetime Payout Annuities." However, fixed-rate annuities do not protect a retiree's income from purchasing power losses because of inflation (e.g. as measured by changes in the CPI). The purpose of this paper is to describe types of annuities and other strategies that will offer the possibility of growing payments during retirement.
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