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madsinger monthly report

 
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madsinger



Joined: 29 Sep 2007
Posts: 354

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 12:29 pm    Post subject: madsinger monthly report Reply with quote

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2008 returns, 2008 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 (9 years 7 months, 7 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

New for 2008, I've added the "Hot Hands" fund, and the Newsletter "Growth Index" portfolio. I've also rearranged the columns so the far right is the "longest" time period, and the far left is the shortest.

The madsinger portfolio, my real-money portfolio (slice-n-dice, approximately 66/5/3/26 stock/REIT/PM/bond) is included at the end.

-Brad.
Code:
                                  CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  July     YTD    since   since   since   since
                  2008     2008   2005    2003    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -4.88%  -17.96%  8.84%  18.50%  13.69%  15.63%
Sheltered Sam    -0.73%  -10.56%  6.57%  13.56%   6.94%   7.45%
VFINX            -0.84%  -12.70%  3.08%   8.61%   1.10%   1.89%
     
s&d              -0.39%   -8.29%  6.30%  12.48%   6.95%   7.52%
Newsletter G-IND -2.95%  -11.30%  7.33%  12.19%   5.88%   4.89%
Newsletter G     -1.56%  -11.50%  7.23%  12.82%   5.57%   9.92%
3 fund           -1.45%   -9.84%  6.11%  11.13%   4.62%   4.81%
LS G             -1.17%  -10.98%  4.91%  10.18%   3.71%   4.04%
     
Wellington       -1.32%   -6.77%  6.20%   9.56%   6.53%   6.70%
coffeehouse       0.42%   -5.15%  4.96%   9.72%   6.52%   6.78%
STAR             -0.94%   -7.66%  4.74%   8.98%   5.16%   5.95%
newsletter CG    -1.10%   -9.80%  6.05%  11.08%   5.02%   7.38%
LS MG            -0.82%   -8.32%  4.70%   8.72%   4.20%   4.45%
     
Wellesley         0.15%   -4.37%  4.30%   5.83%   5.87%   5.80%
newsletter Inc   -0.74%   -5.90%  3.91%   7.29%   4.53%   4.20%
LS CG            -0.57%   -5.72%  4.37%   7.11%   4.41%   4.63%
     
madsinger        -0.59%   -6.69%  6.43%   
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madsinger



Joined: 29 Sep 2007
Posts: 354

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A few more minus signs this month. A little more "spray" in the asset classes this month. Depending on which way you lean, you may have done well, or, let's see...a buying opportunity!

Small Caps (+1.67%) , especially Small Cap Value (+4.03%) were strong this month. REITs were up over 3%, but Precious Metals got thwacked, down over -18% for the month! International was much weaker than domestic for July (-3.67% for Total Int'l vs. -0.77% for Total Stock).

Coffeehouse was the big winner with healthy doses of small caps and REITs, and not too much Int'l.

Hot Hands got hit again this month.

My madsinger portfolio held up pretty well for the month, thanks to an extra helping of small caps...and NO THANKS to precious metals. I should review again for rebalancing opportunities!

Wishing you all well!

-Brad.
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Puakinekine



Joined: 14 Apr 2007
Posts: 460

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 1:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for posting this every month Brad. Lately, there has not been a lot of response to the monthly Madsinger, but really what can you say? I suppose it is like the silence at a funeral.
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burt



Joined: 17 Feb 2008
Posts: 61

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank-you for the monthly madsinger report. I always look forward to reviewing performance of the different portfolios.

Burt
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investor



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 131

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very Happy Laughing

Thanks Brad.
Always appreciate the posting, on both forums....
keep up the good work....
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bhmlurker



Joined: 15 Apr 2008
Posts: 224

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As always I and many others appreciate this invaluable public service. Thank you!!
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DiehardDoc



Joined: 06 Dec 2007
Posts: 36

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 12:55 am    Post subject: Thanks Brad Reply with quote

Always appreciate your posts.

I had allocated 5% to VGPMX which had appreciated to 6-7% of my portfolio at one time, now down almost 25% from the top.

S: B:C 82:12:6

1 year return -8% 3 year return 3%

DiehardDoc.
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aaronchall



Joined: 05 Aug 2008
Posts: 26

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 1:26 am    Post subject: Newsletters Reply with quote

It's always been my impression that newsletters don't do very well. I imagine it's because they over-allocate to T-bills.

But then I'm personally biased against bonds in the first place.

Owners cruise, loaners lose.

Aaron
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Chip



Joined: 21 Feb 2007
Posts: 918

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
But then I'm personally biased against bonds in the first place.

Owners cruise, loaners lose.


IMO, not a good position for a financial advisor to take. Will you advise a 70 year old not to own any bonds?
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IlliniSigEp



Joined: 01 Mar 2007
Posts: 174
Location: Chicago, IL

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:28 am    Post subject: Re: Newsletters Reply with quote

aaronchall wrote:

But then I'm personally biased against bonds in the first place.

Owners cruise, loaners lose.


That has to be about the silliest thing I have ever read. You do realize the bond/cash market is larger than the stock market? I guess the world has this one wrong...

-Dave
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EmergDoc



Joined: 02 Mar 2007
Posts: 6068
Location: Greatest Snow On Earth

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 11:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Brad. That makes me feel a little better about my losses YTD.
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Vig Oren



Joined: 09 May 2007
Posts: 818
Location: NC (near Raleigh)

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 12:07 pm    Post subject: Coaker/Vig Lower Correlated Portfolio w/40% in fixed income Reply with quote

Brad is gone till next month

Last edited by Vig Oren on Thu Aug 07, 2008 8:53 pm; edited 2 times in total
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InvestingMom



Joined: 20 Aug 2007
Posts: 497

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks. I always find this information useful and somewhat calming...I wish the long term columns were better, but hey, at least they are not negative. (I did not look at the short term results since it is too short of a period for comparisons...but I really like looking at the longer term figures.)
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tdhg566



Joined: 08 Mar 2007
Posts: 576
Location: Spring, TX - Age: 58

PostPosted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks very much for compiling and posting this information. I do look forward to reading this posting each month, regardless of what it says Laughing
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swaption



Joined: 29 Jul 2008
Posts: 267

PostPosted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 6:42 pm    Post subject: Re: Newsletters Reply with quote

IlliniSigEp wrote:
aaronchall wrote:

But then I'm personally biased against bonds in the first place.

Owners cruise, loaners lose.


That has to be about the silliest thing I have ever read. You do realize the bond/cash market is larger than the stock market? I guess the world has this one wrong...

-Dave


Like it or not, it's true. It's the price of safety. Unfortunately, often times even that safety is an illusion. As a lender, you are providing the means for the owners to make money. There is a much smaller volume of money that can take equity risks.
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