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lasttoknow
Joined: 11 Nov 2007
Posts: 93
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 Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 10:11 am Post subject: $1000 Gold |
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| Congratulations to all you precious metals owners. |
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wydIdoit
Joined: 21 Jan 2008
Posts: 55
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| Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 10:39 am Post subject: |
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I have a Krugerrand that I won in a raffle back when gold originally hit its highs in the early eighties...
I think it was like $650 an ounce at that time.... A guy who was at the drawing offered me $100 more then it was worth that day.
Hard to belive it would take 27 years for the price of gold to supass those levels again..... |
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lasttoknow
Joined: 11 Nov 2007
Posts: 93
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| Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 11:41 am Post subject: |
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| Ya, similar to the 1929-1955 period for stocks. |
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snowman9000
Joined: 26 Feb 2008
Posts: 818
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| Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:09 pm Post subject: Re: $1000 Gold |
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| lasttoknow wrote: | | Congratulations to all you precious metals owners. |
It's a bubble now.
I rebalanced out 35% of my precious metals fund today. This is the second rebalancing down. Including distributions, I'm playing with house money twice over in that fund since I added it in 2003.
I took it from 120% all the way down to 75% of its allocation in my AA. If it goes down, I'll be glad I did the extra measure of "bubble rebalancing". If it keeps going up, that's good too!
I'm underweight Reits. Time to rebalance that up. |
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Opponent Process
Joined: 18 Sep 2007
Posts: 2195
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| Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:42 pm Post subject: |
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| I'd rather have a new laptop. or 1/4 of a good prostitute. |
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supergrouper
Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 66
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| Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:49 pm Post subject: 1/4 |
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Which 1/4 do you want?  |
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Random Musings
Joined: 22 Feb 2007
Posts: 1715
Location: Pennsylvania
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| Posted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 9:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | or 1/4 of a good prostitute. |
I think the "star" ratings of that company are overrated, just like another coM*pany I can think of. You probably could get 1/2 of one if you bought on a dip.
RM |
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tacitus7
Joined: 28 Mar 2007
Posts: 414
Location: Marinette, Wisconsin
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| Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 9:56 pm Post subject: Thank you |
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Thanks Lasttoknow,
My portfolio is around 13% gold bullion. And glad I am. It has been enough to keep my portfolio from dipping too much with the recent popping of the Stock market bubble. Just hoping that we don't test below 11,000 on the DOW.
Joe E. |
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tacitus7
Joined: 28 Mar 2007
Posts: 414
Location: Marinette, Wisconsin
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| Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 9:59 pm Post subject: Re: $1000 Gold |
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| snowman9000 wrote: | | lasttoknow wrote: | | Congratulations to all you precious metals owners. |
It's a bubble now.
I rebalanced out 35% of my precious metals fund today. This is the second rebalancing down. Including distributions, I'm playing with house money twice over in that fund since I added it in 2003.
I took it from 120% all the way down to 75% of its allocation in my AA. If it goes down, I'll be glad I did the extra measure of "bubble rebalancing". If it keeps going up, that's good too!
I'm underweight Reits. Time to rebalance that up. |
That is a bit speculative. Personally, speculating here a bit, in inflation adjusted terms, golds all time high was around 2200 back in the early 80s. With that in mind, $1000 is not a bubble. It would have been better to buy in when it was a bit lower. All the same, it is a good idea to put between 5% to 30%, depending upons perspective on the future, in gold.
Joe E. |
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mithrandir
Joined: 08 Nov 2007
Posts: 493
Location: Southeastern PA
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| Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:08 pm Post subject: |
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| I sold some unwanted gold jewelry earlier this week to http://www.usgoldbuyers.com. I figured I better cash out before the inevitable gold crash occurs. |
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moneyman11
Joined: 19 Feb 2008
Posts: 325
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| Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:13 pm Post subject: Re: $1000 Gold |
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| tacitus7 wrote: | All the same, it is a good idea to put between 5% to 30%, depending upons perspective on the future, in gold.
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If 30% of your portfolio in gold ends up being a good investment, you'll probably wish the other 70% was invested in canned food and ammunition. |
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tacitus7
Joined: 28 Mar 2007
Posts: 414
Location: Marinette, Wisconsin
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| Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:14 pm Post subject: Bad timing |
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| mithrandir wrote: | | I sold some unwanted gold jewelry earlier this week to http://www.usgoldbuyers.com. I figured I better cash out before the inevitable gold crash occurs. |
IMHO, bad timing. Wait till it hits 2200, then perhaps sell. 
Joe E. |
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tacitus7
Joined: 28 Mar 2007
Posts: 414
Location: Marinette, Wisconsin
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| Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:17 pm Post subject: Re: $1000 Gold |
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| moneyman11 wrote: | | tacitus7 wrote: | All the same, it is a good idea to put between 5% to 30%, depending upons perspective on the future, in gold.
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If 30% of your portfolio in gold ends up being a good investment, you'll probably wish the other 70% was invested in canned food and ammunition. |
Actually, if 30% of my portfolio in gold ends up being a good investment, I would probably wish the other 70% was invested in gold.  Then I could trade it for food and ammunition as needed. Don't think like a Keynesian.
Joe E. |
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mithrandir
Joined: 08 Nov 2007
Posts: 493
Location: Southeastern PA
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| Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: Bad timing |
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| tacitus7 wrote: | | mithrandir wrote: | | I sold some unwanted gold jewelry earlier this week to http://www.usgoldbuyers.com. I figured I better cash out before the inevitable gold crash occurs. |
IMHO, bad timing. Wait till it hits 2200, then perhaps sell.
Joe E. |
The fundamentals don't support that. They don't even support 1000. Gold, the metal, is not in demand at current prices. Gold could and perhaps will run up some more but the bubble will burst a bit below 2200. |
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TheEternalVortex
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Posts: 1463
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
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| Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:29 pm Post subject: Re: $1000 Gold |
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| tacitus7 wrote: | | moneyman11 wrote: | | tacitus7 wrote: | All the same, it is a good idea to put between 5% to 30%, depending upons perspective on the future, in gold.
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If 30% of your portfolio in gold ends up being a good investment, you'll probably wish the other 70% was invested in canned food and ammunition. |
Actually, if 30% of my portfolio in gold ends up being a good investment, I would probably wish the other 70% was invested in gold. Then I could trade it for food and ammunition as needed. Don't think like a Keynesian.
Joe E. |
If a "The Road"-type future occurs then gold will be worthless and you'll certainly wish you had ammunition/food. |
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tc101
Joined: 20 Feb 2007
Posts: 1218
Location: Atlanta - Retired in 2004 at age 54
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| Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:53 pm Post subject: |
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Central Fund of Canada (CEF) is traded like a stock, has an expense ratio of 0.43%, and holds holds 50 ounces of silver for every 1 oz. of gold, and holds over 90% of assets in precious metals. That ends up meaning it has about 50% value in silver, 50% in gold.
I bought some today, rather than GLD which is gold only. |
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tetractys
Joined: 17 Mar 2007
Posts: 1991
Location: Salish Sea Region
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:21 am Post subject: |
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Gold? IMO a prudent investment might be about 30 oz, or an amount easy to carry inconspicuously. And it should certainly be kept an absolute secret, especially from your loved ones. Tet
_________________
"Near panic conditions prevail in financial markets. People want to know what lies ahead. I cannot tell them because I do not know." -- George Soros |
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azxcvbnm321
Joined: 20 Aug 2007
Posts: 255
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:17 am Post subject: Re: Bad timing |
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| mithrandir wrote: | | tacitus7 wrote: | | mithrandir wrote: | | I sold some unwanted gold jewelry earlier this week to http://www.usgoldbuyers.com. I figured I better cash out before the inevitable gold crash occurs. |
IMHO, bad timing. Wait till it hits 2200, then perhaps sell.
Joe E. |
The fundamentals don't support that. They don't even support 1000. Gold, the metal, is not in demand at current prices. Gold could and perhaps will run up some more but the bubble will burst a bit below 2200. |
There seems to be enough demand to push it up over 1000. What are the fundamentals? How about M3 money supply of the US and Europe growing at well over 15%. With everyone devaluing their currencies other than select emerging markets, where else can you get an inflation hedge? TIPS have low real yields and CPI is no longer the same measurement before the changes. Yields on most relatively safe bonds are below inflation. This kind of runup can't continue, but we're not close to the end, true bubble territory would be $3500 by end of 2008. |
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froggy
Joined: 25 Dec 2007
Posts: 17
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:31 am Post subject: Selling one ounce gold coins |
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What's the best place for selling Gold Eagles and Krugerrands of the 1 ounce type?
Charles |
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Fantumzone
Joined: 24 Feb 2008
Posts: 120
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:36 am Post subject: Re: Bad timing |
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| azxcvbnm321 wrote: |
There seems to be enough demand to push it up over 1000. What are the fundamentals? How about M3 money supply of the US and Europe growing at well over 15%. With everyone devaluing their currencies other than select emerging markets, where else can you get an inflation hedge? TIPS have low real yields and CPI is no longer the same measurement before the changes. Yields on most relatively safe bonds are below inflation. This kind of runup can't continue, but we're not close to the end, true bubble territory would be $3500 by end of 2008. |
Thats the problem with gold. WHY should it be an inflation hedge ?
It is acting as an inflation hedge because people think it should act as an inflation hedge. The govt does not guarentee that it is a store of value. Nor do corporations. |
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mithrandir
Joined: 08 Nov 2007
Posts: 493
Location: Southeastern PA
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 8:23 am Post subject: Re: Bad timing |
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| azxcvbnm321 wrote: |
There seems to be enough demand to push it up over 1000. What are the fundamentals? How about M3 money supply of the US and Europe growing at well over 15%. With everyone devaluing their currencies other than select emerging markets, where else can you get an inflation hedge? TIPS have low real yields and CPI is no longer the same measurement before the changes. Yields on most relatively safe bonds are below inflation. This kind of runup can't continue, but we're not close to the end, true bubble territory would be $3500 by end of 2008. |
Must people be reminded that as recently as 2002 an ounce of gold traded for under $300. That was indeed a period when deflation was the phrase of the moment. Currently, many are concerned about a return to raging inflation. I don't believe these fears are misguided but gold is getting buyers today because it has been making money, i.e. investors are performance chasing. Gold's run-up is not based on the fundamental demand for the metal. It's an investment play, no more.
When people start talking about how an asset will continue to go up in price (2x or 3x) when that same asset has already tripled over the past 6 years (for investment reasons rather than fundamentals), you cannot claim that we are not in a phase of pure speculation/gambling. I do not have a crystal ball that tells me where gold prices are headed in the future but based on history, the risks to the downside outweigh the possibility for significant gains.
Gold can have a place in your portfolio but I think it is very foolish to increase your allocation and gamble at these levels. Selling and bringing your allocation down to earlier levels is certainly a prudent thing to do. |
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snowman9000
Joined: 26 Feb 2008
Posts: 818
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 8:55 am Post subject: |
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The Meaning of $1000 Gold
URL deleted by poster.
Last edited by snowman9000 on Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:28 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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nisiprius
Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Posts: 7671
Location: North America; Western Hemisphere; the Earth; the Solar System; the Universe; the Mind of God
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:23 am Post subject: Re: $1000 Gold |
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| lasttoknow wrote: | | Congratulations to all you precious metals owners. |
I thought platinum was declining?
_________________
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery. |
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Valuethinker
Joined: 11 May 2007
Posts: 11410
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:46 am Post subject: |
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Could you drop this introduction of politics into this thread?
If someone had posted an economics piece by the junior senators from New York or Illinois, or the Senior Senator from Arizona, that would count as political content.
You should view this in the same light.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:48 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Valuethinker
Joined: 11 May 2007
Posts: 11410
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:47 am Post subject: Re: $1000 Gold |
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| nisiprius wrote: | | lasttoknow wrote: | | Congratulations to all you precious metals owners. |
I thought platinum was declining? |
South Africa produces 80% of world supply.
South Africa has a significant power shortage and mines are on power rationing for at least the next 5 years.
So supply is being constricted just when demand is rising.
It's not a happy situation, there are not easy alternatives for the industrial uses of platinum. |
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snowman9000
Joined: 26 Feb 2008
Posts: 818
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:23 am Post subject: |
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| Valuethinker wrote: | | snowman9000 wrote: | | The Meaning of $1000 Gold, |
Could you drop this introduction of politics into this thread?
If someone had posted an economics piece by the junior senators from New York or Illinois, or the Senior Senator from Arizona, that would count as political content.
You should view this in the same light. |
I considered that. But it's about what is driving gold prices, no matter who wrote it. What if the Treasury Secretary wrote something about gold prices? He's a politician too, with a political agenda. He is appointed, not elected, but he's a politician. It's on topic and newsworthy. That was my logic.
EDIT: I decided to delete it. It had too much controversial content. |
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tacitus7
Joined: 28 Mar 2007
Posts: 414
Location: Marinette, Wisconsin
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 6:45 pm Post subject: Re: Selling one ounce gold coins |
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| froggy wrote: | What's the best place for selling Gold Eagles and Krugerrands of the 1 ounce type?
Charles |
If you have one ounce Eagles, you should not sell to somebody that will not give you spot on them. Shop around for gold firms. The one I buy from is Centennial metals. You can find them at www.usagold.com. But it is better if you can sell to a local firm. Then there isn't the cost of shipping. I found one in my area where they give spot for Eagles. Krugerands should sell at 1-2% less than spot I believe. Frankly, check usagold to see what they would give you, in relation to spot. If you can find a local dealer that will match that, go that way.
Hope that helps.
Joe E
p.s. Don't sell right now if you don't have to IMHO. |
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tacitus7
Joined: 28 Mar 2007
Posts: 414
Location: Marinette, Wisconsin
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 6:53 pm Post subject: Re: Bad timing |
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| mithrandir wrote: | | azxcvbnm321 wrote: |
There seems to be enough demand to push it up over 1000. What are the fundamentals? How about M3 money supply of the US and Europe growing at well over 15%. With everyone devaluing their currencies other than select emerging markets, where else can you get an inflation hedge? TIPS have low real yields and CPI is no longer the same measurement before the changes. Yields on most relatively safe bonds are below inflation. This kind of runup can't continue, but we're not close to the end, true bubble territory would be $3500 by end of 2008. |
Must people be reminded that as recently as 2002 an ounce of gold traded for under $300. That was indeed a period when deflation was the phrase of the moment. Currently, many are concerned about a return to raging inflation. I don't believe these fears are misguided but gold is getting buyers today because it has been making money, i.e. investors are performance chasing. Gold's run-up is not based on the fundamental demand for the metal. It's an investment play, no more.
When people start talking about how an asset will continue to go up in price (2x or 3x) when that same asset has already tripled over the past 6 years (for investment reasons rather than fundamentals), you cannot claim that we are not in a phase of pure speculation/gambling. I do not have a crystal ball that tells me where gold prices are headed in the future but based on history, the risks to the downside outweigh the possibility for significant gains.
Gold can have a place in your portfolio but I think it is very foolish to increase your allocation and gamble at these levels. Selling and bringing your allocation down to earlier levels is certainly a prudent thing to do. |
It is fun to speculate about where the price of gold is going. But you are right, Mithrandir. That is not the way to invest long term. Rather one should pick an allocation to fit ones risk tolerance, time horizon, and needs.
One point I have tried to make here over the past two or so years, is that gold or commodities should be a part of ones overall portfolio. What percentage is something very personal. And whether that exposure should be through commodity linked securities, precious metal mutual funds, or gold bullion is debatable too. I do however argue that direct bullion ownership should be given serious consideration.
But I would not like to see people here get into a speculative market chasing craze. Just for the record.
Joe E. |
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moneyman11
Joined: 19 Feb 2008
Posts: 325
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:04 pm Post subject: |
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Really, if you want to invest long term in gold, you should hold it in bullion coins, locked in a safe in your house, next to the gun.
That way, if it becomes a truly great investment, you can take it down in the bunker with you and have it ready to trade for food and water when the apocalypse has passed. You'll probably want some silver bullion too ... you know, in case they can't make change.
Say hi to the Y2K holdouts for me when you get there. |
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bearcat98
Joined: 01 Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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| Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2008 6:31 pm Post subject: |
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Remember that various commodity funds have weightings in gold and other precious metals, so if you don't want to predict what market sentiment will be in the future (and yes, the price of gold has almost everything to do with market sentiment and almost nothing to do with actual gold consumption), but you also don't want to ignore gold, silver, and other "things" that may become valuable, you could buy one of these broader funds. For example, DJ-AIG commodity index is weighted about 7% to gold and 3% to silver, so PCRIX/PCRAX would give you some exposure.
Remember, gold isn't the only metal that's been profitable; commodities in general have been doing well, and any precious metal would have helped your portfolio recently.
My favorite metals to invest in, though, are copper and nickel. The best thing is that you don't have to do any work; you just need to own a piggy bank. A US nickel is 75% copper and 25% nickel, and the metal content is worth 7.2 cents.
FWIW, it's currently illegal to melt nickels and pennies down, so you're going to have trouble getting more than 5 cents on the nickel for the foreseeable future. But if you want valuable metal in your basement as a hedge against whatever disaster, the metal in your nickels will be more useful than your soft Buffalo gold coins. |
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mithrandir
Joined: 08 Nov 2007
Posts: 493
Location: Southeastern PA
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| Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Gold is now trading at $916 an ounce. Profit-taking or the beginning of stiff resistance upwards? |
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matt
Joined: 04 Mar 2007
Posts: 914
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| Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Gold is now trading at $916 an ounce. Profit-taking or the beginning of stiff resistance upwards? |
A temporary bout of irrational exuberance in the flailing US dollar. |
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michaeltate
Joined: 19 Mar 2008
Posts: 7
Location: Sacramento, California
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| Posted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 9:04 am Post subject: |
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Gold is one of those "alternatives" to stocks and bonds that seem to get more attention when economic prospects seem at their worst.
Maybe the question isn't whether gold is a terrific asset class, but whether gold offers safe harbor from shaky capital markets and economic catastrophe.
Can one reliably protect themselves from risk and still capture capital market returns? I have a tough time accepting that. |
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