Bogleheads

[Apprentice_941]

I don't subscribe to his Marketimer newletter so I don't know what he's saying.

But I am really curious as to whether he made the correct call on the current bear market (at least it's becoming decreasingly debateable we're in an actual bear market).

By correct call, I mean that a good market timer is supposed to sense the approach of a bear market and stear clear of 'at risk' investments.

So, has Bob Brinker made the right call or is he getting too old and rich?

[tfb]

This blogger listens to Brinker and tracks what he said. It looks like Brinker didn't call the correction ahead of time.

http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz2.blogspot.com/
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[haban01]

I'm listening to him as we speak. He hasn't had much talk about bailing at a s & p amount of .... or our buy signal at a range of ..... He keeps predicting that we may averate a recession because we *may* not have two consecutive quarters of negative/declining GDP. I do remember that he made a BAD call on the QQQ back in the olden days!!

He gives excellent advice (other than the market timing)!!!

I do wonder what he's saying in his newsletter!!
_________________
Eric Haban

"Stay the Course"
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Wisconsin Diehards Chapter Coordinator

[cudaman]

For $185/yr, you can find out.

[Index Fan]

Brinker is in the market and I believe he said below-1300 S&P 500 levels are a buying opportunity. He doesn't do frequent in-and-out market calls at all. I listen to his radio broadcasts for other reasons than market-timing anyways.
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"Optimum est pati quod emendare non possis."
-Seneca

[EmergDoc]

[Honeybee88]

Thank you for posting the link to Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz.

Yes, I try to do a summary, including commentaries and excerpts of Moneytalk and post it on my Blog weekly -- usually by Sunday evening, as time allows.

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"Index Fan said: Brinker is in the market and I believe he said below-1300 S&P 500 levels are a buying opportunity.
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That is not correct. Peter Brimelow wrote about this subject in an article at Marketwatch. In Brimelow's article, he included Brinker's latest special bulletin from February 10, 2008. In the bulletin, Brinker issued a new "buying opportunity" at the "low-1300s" level. Here are some excerpts from Brinker's bulletin:
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"The initial closing low in the current stock market correction process occurred on January 22, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1310.50. The market subsequently rallied for eight days, at which point it began the process of testing the area of the January 22 closing low.
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In our view, the correction bottoming process has proceeded with a high degree of historical consistency to date. We have witnessed a decided reduction in selling pressure during the testing process, which is essential to a successful outcome. We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1300's, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level.".

Regards, Honeybee

[Random Walker]

I'm a big Bob Brinker fan and I subscribe to his newsletter. That being said, I think he has proved himself human recently. In the last half year or so, he has recommended dollar cost averaging in above the mid 1450's and at 1450's and lower he has considered a buying opportunity. Now that the market has gone significantly below those levels he is recommending dollar cost averaging in general and I believe buying beneath 1300. So I think he has modified his recommendations according to the circumstances. Perhaps like the Fed, he is "data dependent".
Although I subscribe to his newsletter, I have never followed his advice. I would probably be more wealthy if I had though. Instead I have followed the advice of virtually all the excellent books on his reading list: save, DCA, and stick to a chosen AA.

Dave

[larryswedroe]

fwiw
This stuff about bear market and 20% I don't get. First there are several asset classes down well more than that. Real estate and value stocks for example. And if the S&P falls 19.9% we did not have a bear market, just a correction?

[Honeybee88]

Hi Random Walker,

Perhaps I don't view Brinker's "buying opportunities" in quite the same way you do. To me, it indicates that Brinker considers those levels as "gift-horse" buying opportunities and does not expect the market to drop below them.

If that is not the case, then I do not understand the point of his making them because he already recommends being 100% invested with all equity allocations. He has not raised any "cash reserves" for this correction and his Model Portfolios have been 100% invested since March 2003.

However, I can say with complete confidence that Brinker views dollar-cost-averaging as an entirely different thing from his "all-new-money-in" buying opportunities.

He recommended "mid-1400's" as a good place to buy equities with all available new cash reserves from August 2007 through January 2008.

January 20th, he sent out a bulletin doing away with the "mid-1400's" as an "attractive for purchase" level and recommending ONLY dollar-cost-averaging new money into the market.
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As Brimelow pointed out: February 10th, Brinker issued the new and MUCH lower "low-1300's" buying opportunity. So anyone who, between August 2007 and January 2008, came into a retirement, inheritance, sale of home or business, etc., and sunk it into the market on his recommendation, has lost at least 15% of it already.

The S&P closed Friday at 1293....

Regards, Honeybee

[cudaman]

[Honeybee88]

[tfb]

Honey, did you lose a lot of money on Brinker's QQQ call? You seem to show some resentment toward him. Or is it that you just can't tolerate fake experts on radio? As market timers go, there are many worse ones than Bob Brinker. Whenever his stand-in (Bill Flanagan?) is on, I just can't stand him because he doesn't know what he's talking about. I think Bob Brinker is at least better than Bill.
_________________
Did you search the forums and the wiki?

[Random Walker]

I don't think we differ significantly. If 1450 is a buying opportunity, then obviously 1300 is more of one. I don't know if his all-in numbers rep-resent bottoms that he does not think the market will drop below or not. Buying all-in at 1450 and dollar cost averaging at 1300 does not make sense to me.
He's far from perfect and he calls market timing one of the most difficult tasks in the world. He doesn't claim to be perfect. I agree he's pretty quiet about the calls that don't seem to go the right way. I think it's fair to say though that his show is very educational. It certainly has been my pathway to the Boglehead method.

Dave

[Honeybee88]

[cudaman]

[Honeybee88]

[cudaman]

[Kirk]

[oscar39]

"...Not at all Honeybee. It's just I noticed all 6 of your first posts here were in someway related to your Blog. Sometimes it's best to clear the air early, so I asked. Nothing precludes you from presenting facts about Brinker. .."

I noticed that too. It seems as if the Blog is a haven for mostly Brinker bashers. Many of the comments are nothing more than cheap pot shots at Brinker and links to various commerical sites.

[Honeybee88]

Thread topic: Did Market Timer Bob Brinker Make the Correct Call?

My question would be, WHICH call?

We know that Bob Brinker was a roaring bull right up until the current market decline which he admits he didn't expect.

We know that Brinker is still bullish, and weekend before this last one, he pointed out to Larry Swedroe that there is no bear market.
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We know that Brinker has had a mid-1400's "all-new-money-in" buy level since last August -- right up to and including when he issued the January 2008 Marketimer.
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We know Brinker did away with the mid-1400's buy level and advised dollar-cost-averaging on January 20th and started looking for the market bottom.

We know that Brinker decided the market was bottoming at about 1331 and issued another "all-new-money-in" buy level at the "low-1300's" on February 10th.

As I type the S&P is at 1281. So I would guess -- just a guess, that we are getting close to knowing the answer to the question posed in the topic of this thread.

Best Regards....Honeybee

[moneyhoney]

Back in the late 90's and into 2000, I followed Brinker religiously, he could do no wrong in my book. I was one of the unfortunates who received his infamous QQQ missive which he undoubted wished he had never made. I was guite angry with him for sometime, but I moved on. I came to the realization, that the real culprit, was me, for following his advice. Those who have made in excess of market returns by following Brinker's calls should consider themselves fortunate for their timing in following Brinker's timing, as "Kirk" itemized earlier. Good luck to you!

[cudaman]

[hollowcave2]

Ok, so no one is perfect. He missed this 18% correction (so far). But so what? I happen to believe the market is coming back. Besides, over 90% of my money is in funds with a proper asset allocation to match my views and risk tolerance, so it does not matter much to me.

Personally, I think he gave up too easily on the secular bear market theory (or at least he has not mentioned it for a long time). The secular bear market theory still fits the data since 2000. We very well could still be in it. The new high on the S&P was only 1.9% above the old high and could have been a bull trap. The markets do not easily fit into any simple theory.

Steve

[cudaman]

As Brinker has said (paraphrasing) "We do the best we can". His market timing calls aside (which are rare I might add), Brinker has done a tremendous amount to educate and help investors. They don't come much better than this man and he has my respect and admiration.

Jerry

[sschullo]

I agree with all that is said that Bob Brinker is about educating and helping investors use and appreciate how fees impact their nestegg. He does this because he is no fool, he is a closeted Boglehead and using the Boglehead strategies because he knows that is good investing and he uses the "Market Timer" pitch to keep his subscribers happy and to have a radio show. He has had John Bogle on his show and he allows suggests to newbies that people use index funds.

The market timer slant is to keep and make his captive audience happy, thinking that it was the "timing" that did it. $185 per 20,000 subscribers is a lot of money for investors who take his calls literally. Of course, those that have followed his calls made it big on the January 2000 call and lost it on the Dec. 2000 call on the QQQQ.
IMHO, he really does not market time because he has only made 3 or 4 major calls in 25 years and he would have called this downturn last summer. Over that much time. if that isn't buy and hold with low cost no load mutual funds, what is it.

Just my 2 cents,
Steve

[hollowcave2]

I think the best way to describe Brinker is that he uses the Bogle tactical asset allocation idea. In extreme market conditions, he does favor drastically changing asset allocation to match those market conditions.

He is mostly a buy and hold guy, but he also said that buy and hold was dead, a strategy proven futile during the 2000-03 market downturn. So he definitely is not a set it and forget it type of investor. But his market calls are only for major turning points, and those calls are typically years apart. IN this sense, he reminds me of Ben Stein and his recent book on timing the market with a time frame of decades.

But I agree that the best contribution of Brinker is the education he shares with the investing public. That is his true contribution. Much of his philosophy is a Boglehead one, but as I stated above, some important differences.

the other Steve

[Les]