Will mortgage rates drop?

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Will mortgage rates drop?

Postby gdetore » Tue Jan 22, 2008 9:33 pm

Hi all,
Thanks for giving me something to hold onto while I waited to see the carnage in my retirement account. I am reading various books (Swederoe, Ferri) and gaining confidence, although wish I'd known then what I know about asset allocation (damn that Vanguard Healthcare Fund). Anyway, last week I applied for a thirty year mortgage no points Wells Fargo to refi a first and second. Quoted 5.75 plus various fees. Today it dropped to 5.65 or so. My question is should I hit pause on the refi because fixed rate mortgages (I have top credit rating) will be dropping? Or is something else going on with the credit crunch which means banks will not lower rates, just use the difference to help their bottom line? Of course my banker wants me to hurry and sign now, and says the two are not necessarily related. Since I am investing in a 403b at Vanguard, I think it is ok to bother the Bogleheads with a mortgage question. If not, sorry for the post!
Gary
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Postby Idahusker » Tue Jan 22, 2008 9:45 pm

That's a ridiculously low rate historically speaking. Trying to find the bottom is a mistake, whether in mortgage rates or the stock market. If you want to wait, feel free, but don't be upset if they go up slightly before you pull the trigger. If you pull the trigger now and they go down, don't sweat it: You locked in a very low rate.
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Re: Will mortgage rates drop?

Postby Ron » Tue Jan 22, 2008 9:53 pm

gdetore wrote:damn that Vanguard Healthcare Fund


Why? Assuming you're talking about VGHCX.

Return rates a/o today:

3 year - 10.73%
5 year - 12.69%
10 year - 13.98%

I've held/bought over 10 years. Looks good to me?

- Ron
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Postby Plainsman » Tue Jan 22, 2008 9:55 pm

Since many mortgages are bundled and sold secondarily on the bond market, mortgage rates are tied to the 10 year Tresury yield, which dropped significantly to 3.48% today. If you want to follow mortgage rates, follow the bond market.

HELOCs are tied more directly to Fed Funds Rates.
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Postby woof755 » Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:08 pm

At the risk of both hijacking a thread and taking this off-topic, I'm thinking about a re-fi, too. Currently I'm at 6.5%, 30 year fixed. Not too bad, but enough to make me wonder if it's worth it to refinance.

Does anyone know what closing costs and fees amount to, in a general sense, when refinancing? Is it close to 1% or so?
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Postby GIS Guy » Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:11 pm

It will be interesting to see what happens to the 30 year fixed tomorrow. Even if you do not have a float-down option, go ahead and ask your lender or broker to drop the rate if it goes down significantly between now and closing....it's worth a try to have them ask the higher-ups or underwriters for approval to do so. Go to this thread for a bit more info: http://www.diehards.org/forum/viewtopic ... 1200598166

Cheers,
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Postby GIS Guy » Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:17 pm

woof755 wrote:At the risk of both hijacking a thread and taking this off-topic, I'm thinking about a re-fi, too. Currently I'm at 6.5%, 30 year fixed. Not too bad, but enough to make me wonder if it's worth it to refinance.

Does anyone know what closing costs and fees amount to, in a general sense, when refinancing? Is it close to 1% or so?


Woof, I got good faith estimates from 5 lenders. For the exact same 30 year refi cash-out loan of 172K (80% loan to value), closing costs ranged from $1678 to $7100. The rates ranged from 5.69% to 5.85%. The rates and costs vary, so shop around. And keep in mind your loan to value ratio and whether it is a cash-out refi affects your rate, in addition to your FICO score. I believe a non-cash-out refi loan less than 70% of your home's value will get you the best rates - we'll see tomorrow, but I wouldn't be surprised if you could get in the low 5s.
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Re: Will mortgage rates drop?

Postby stratton » Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:21 pm

Probably not.

From a real estate blog
Here is a graph that I came across compliments of my subscription to Loan Tool Box which shows the impact to mortgage interest rates when the Fed has recently cut the Funds rate.

The chart at the link shows three periods with interest rates decreasing and mortgage rates going up.

Paul
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Postby Sheepdog » Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:28 pm

On ABC news tonight they said that the average 30 year fixed mortgage nationwide dropped to 5.375% today. I wrote that down and sent it to my sons.
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Re: Will mortgage rates drop?

Postby prius04 » Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:43 pm

stratton wrote:...The chart at the link shows three periods with interest rates decreasing and mortgage rates going up...

I (very quickly) checked those three periods and the rate on the 10-year Note was increasing, so......
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Re: Will mortgage rates drop?

Postby stratton » Wed Jan 23, 2008 12:16 am

prius04 wrote:
stratton wrote:...The chart at the link shows three periods with interest rates decreasing and mortgage rates going up...

I (very quickly) checked those three periods and the rate on the 10-year Note was increasing, so......

I didn't check so thats good to know.

If recent behavior follows people will rush to the lower interest rates this week and next week the mortgage lenders will slam them up 1/2 point. Then in a couple more weeks when the borrowers dry up they'll lower them again. Repeat...

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Postby malloc » Wed Jan 23, 2008 1:12 am

I too am shopping to lower the interest rate on an existing (seasoned) loan.
The rate at Countrywide, for a 15 year loan was just under 6%, but
for a 10 year loan, today I was quoted 5.0% for:

10 year loan
California Rental property
Excellent Credit
50% loan to value
No points No fees

I was so surprised that I forgot to get an estimate for closing costs, and I forgot to verify no prepay.

Does anyone know any reason to avoid Countrywide?
I mean their ethics, not their finances.
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Postby malloc » Wed Jan 23, 2008 1:29 am

I should have added this was a fixed rate of 5.0%, and I would be paying off a second. No additional cash out.
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Postby Ted Valentine » Wed Jan 23, 2008 11:22 am

I've been shopping for 2 weeks.

I was quoted 5.75% on 30 year fixed. No points.
I was quoted 5.5% this week. No points.
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Postby RobertH » Wed Jan 23, 2008 11:40 am

Gary,

You have probably read that the Fed and its central bank equivalents overseas (for example, the European Central Bank) are concerned about inflation.

One thing to appreciate is that if inflation becomes a concern to the markets, one of the first places it will show up is in the 30-year bond, meaning higher interest rates for people taking out mortgages. And this game is more about concerns about inflation than inflation itself.

Some people are concerned that the Fed is walking a tightrope. If they lower the discount rate and other rates they control too much, they could actually cause long-term interest rates to go up due to concerns about inflation.

So if you're talking about holding off on a refi for a few months, rates really could go either way!

Robert
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Postby tfb » Wed Jan 23, 2008 11:48 am

Ted Valentine wrote:I've been shopping for 2 weeks.

I was quoted 5.75% on 30 year fixed. No points.
I was quoted 5.5% this week. No points.


The rate quote I got also came down 0.25% from last week, but I'm holding out for a little more. Current quote is 5.0% no point no closing cost on 15-year fixed conforming loan.
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Postby mas » Wed Jan 23, 2008 12:04 pm

Sheepdog wrote:On ABC news tonight they said that the average 30 year fixed mortgage nationwide dropped to 5.375% today. I wrote that down and sent it to my sons.
Jim


"Rates may include points." is a frequent disclaimer, though Ted Valentine and tfb's quotes are comforting.
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Postby woof755 » Wed Jan 23, 2008 12:04 pm

Obviously I haven't delved too much into this yet (just got this loan 8 months ago, never thought I'd be considering refinancing).

What is the difference between cash-out and non-cash-out refis?
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Postby tfb » Wed Jan 23, 2008 12:07 pm

woof755 wrote:What is the difference between cash-out and non-cash-out refis?


Cash-out means you borrow more than the current balance plus closing cost. It usually carries a higher interest rate than no-cash-out refi which just pays off the current balance.
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Postby woof755 » Wed Jan 23, 2008 12:09 pm

With no cash-out, the closing costs come out of pocket, then?

Thanks, finance buff!
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Postby tfb » Wed Jan 23, 2008 12:10 pm

woof755 wrote:With no cash-out, the closing costs come out of pocket, then?


I think if you pay off the current balance plus closing cost, it's still no-cash-out because you are not receiving cash at closing.
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Postby malloc » Wed Jan 23, 2008 1:34 pm

tfb
That is a very interesting rate......from who?
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Postby woof755 » Wed Jan 23, 2008 1:41 pm

Uber-naive question of the day:

Why would a lender want to allow me to refinance at a lower rate?

To take in more closing costs?
To lock the customer in for 30 more years?

I mean, if they have me at 6.5%, why let me get out from under that and refi at 5%?
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Postby Ted Valentine » Wed Jan 23, 2008 1:48 pm

woof755 wrote:Uber-naive question of the day:

Why would a lender want to allow me to refinance at a lower rate?

To take in more closing costs?
To lock the customer in for 30 more years?

I mean, if they have me at 6.5%, why let me get out from under that and refi at 5%?


Lenders make money off of their customers. If you go somewhere else they will lose you as a customer. They'd rather have you at 5% than not at all.
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Postby woof755 » Wed Jan 23, 2008 1:53 pm

Ahhhhh...the spirit of competition.
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Postby smithdad » Wed Jan 23, 2008 2:04 pm

At the risk of both hijacking a thread and taking this off-topic, I'm thinking about a re-fi, too. Currently I'm at 6.5%, 30 year fixed. Not too bad, but enough to make me wonder if it's worth it to refinance.

Does anyone know what closing costs and fees amount to, in a general sense, when refinancing? Is it close to 1% or so?


If you are willing to pay just a bit higher of a rate, you can refi with no closing costs. We did it a few years back and the fees added up to about $50. The place we did it at currently is at 30 fixed of 5.5% with 0.25 points or 4.875% at 2.25 points. I am not sure how that compares with other rates now, but if you plan on not being there for 30 years it may be tough to beat the no fee refinance. This was a good loan too - none of that prepayment penalty garbage or anything like that.
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ARM Rates and 30-yr rates

Postby bluestar74 » Wed Jan 23, 2008 3:09 pm

If you are looking for ARM rates pentagon federal offers good rates with minimal closing costs. If you are looking for a 30yr fixed madratedotcom offers competitive rates with a fixed lower closing costs.
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Postby tfb » Thu Jan 24, 2008 1:44 am

malloc wrote:That is a very interesting rate......from who?


From a local mortgage broker. I don't think the rate is that special. I just checked PenFed.org. It is offering 4.625% no point (with closing cost) for 15-year fixed. Another credit union near me is offering the same 4.625% rate. Traditionally no closing cost loans have been 0.25% higher. I just locked in my rate today at 4.875%. So it's just about right. If you call a mortgage broker and ask for the same rate, you will probably get it too.

The advantage of a no closing cost mortgage is that I have the option to refi again if the rate drops again. It's a put option. If I paid closing cost and the rate drops again, I would've wasted the closing cost. If the rate never drops from here, I'd be paying 0.25% higher for many years. Ideally you should pay the closing cost and get a lower rate when the rate hits bottom. But because I have no idea when is the bottom, I'm using this "stepping down the ladder" approach to make sure the rate I'm paying is never more than 0.25% higher than the bottom. When I did it last time in 2005, I thought the rate would never be lower. But here we are today.
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Postby rajeshh » Thu Jan 24, 2008 1:52 am

tfb wrote:
I just locked in my rate today at 4.875%.


So is no closing cost really mean no out of pocket expense at all or is it still a few hundred dollars?
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mortgage quest

Postby gdetore » Thu Jan 24, 2008 2:07 am

Thank you to all who posted...and it's interesting how many people are reading the posts-obviously a popular concern. I think it is interesting that even with the investigative possibilities of the internet it is STILL so hard to get a simple table that lists lenders, rates, points and fees. It is so obvious how the financial industry does not want to allow it's borrowers to gain empowerment. There is a facade of comparative shopping for mortgages; often you have to 'Call' or even 'apply' to actually find out what the final cost will be. I know APR is supposed to even the field, but there is still enough grey zone to make it hard to just see who has the best deal. I know, it also depends on the borrower's credit rating (a whole other black hole of whys) but in the end, the banks reel you in - you don't reel them in. Changing interests day by day, buying in locked interest. Sheesh. Maybe Google will start an even playing field finance section and upend the industry. We need a Napster for banks, change the paradigm. Or GoogleBank. Thanks for letting me rant about the obvious, but after a couple decades of various refis I have become a bit cynical about the whole process. And now it looks like the poor banks will be needing taxpayer bailouts in some form to save us (them?) from financial meltdown. Amazing. Could you imagine going to Amazon to buy a toaster or book, only you won't know the final cost until you hit 'buy'. ? Just a good faith estimate. Isn't that an oxymoron coming from a bank?
Good luck to all the readers and posters in their mortgage quest!
Gary
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Postby tfb » Thu Jan 24, 2008 2:10 am

rajeshh wrote:So is no closing cost really mean no out of pocket expense at all or is it still a few hundred dollars?


Nothing except prepaid interest. Everything else is covered by the higher rate I'm paying. If the loan closes on the 19th, the interest on the old loan from the 1st through the 19th is included in the new loan amount. You have to pay out of pocket at the time of the closing the interest on the new loan from the 19th to the end of the month. Then you don't have your usual monthly payment in the beginning of the next month. Monthly payment re-starts in the beginning of the following month.
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Postby Ted Valentine » Thu Jan 24, 2008 2:38 am

rajeshh wrote:
tfb wrote:
I just locked in my rate today at 4.875%.


So is no closing cost really mean no out of pocket expense at all or is it still a few hundred dollars?


I've never had one of these "no cost" mortgages. However, based on my conversations with a couple of brokers "no closing cost" mortgages are not right nor practical for everyone. People that have a competitive rate already and a lower than average mortgage typically don't benefit.

The way I understand it, the broker gets a rebate as a percentage of the mortgage (aka "negative points") by selling a higher than market rate loan. Every closing has certain fixed costs like appraisal, closing fee, courrier fee, title insurance, tax stamps, doc fee, etc etc etc. These fees are fixed expenses to the loaning agent and typically add up to a certain dollar amount, usually $2000-$4000. Therefore your mortgage balance has to be large enough so that the rebate covers the fixed costs and leaves some for the broker to get paid.

Also note that tfb probably carries his own escrow, eliminating this part of the closing costs for him. Carrying your own escrow* can also cost you a 1/8 to 1/4 of a point on your rate with most lenders--it all depends however. Note that you will (you better!) get back whatever you currently have in escrow when your original loan is paid off in a refinance situation. My experience is this can take a couple months. So you have to either bring that new escrow cash with you to closing (in addition to the partial month's interest payment**), or roll it into the loan and get a nice escrow refund bonus in a few months.

*Why carry your own escrow, you ask? Maybe you're OCD and you like to control it and make sure the service company doesn't screw up and miss a payment. Or more likely, you want to earn the interest on your own escrow account. Also, you can stagger tax payments for boosted income tax deductions certain years.

**Recall you will get to "skip" that next month's payment because mortgages are structured to accrue interest through the month and then you pay that accrued interest and associate principal amount with your payment. Hence, the pseudo "grace period" where they give you to the 14th or so to make your payment.
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Postby tfb » Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:11 am

Ted Valentine wrote:I've never had one of these "no cost" mortgages. However, based on my conversations with a couple of brokers "no closing cost" mortgages are not right nor practical for everyone. People that have a competitive rate already and a lower than average mortgage typically don't benefit.


Agreed. Nothing can be right or practical for everyone. If the difference between the existing rate and the current market rate is small and the mortgage balance is small, paying closing cost to refi doesn't benefit the borrower much either. It doesn't make sense to pay $3,000 to refinance a $50k balance down 0.5%. "No cost" refi in that case won't help either.

Ted Valentine wrote:The way I understand it, the broker gets a rebate as a percentage of the mortgage (aka "negative points") by selling a higher than market rate loan. Every closing has certain fixed costs like appraisal, closing fee, courrier fee, title insurance, tax stamps, doc fee, etc etc etc. These fees are fixed expenses to the loaning agent and typically add up to a certain dollar amount, usually $2000-$4000. Therefore your mortgage balance has to be large enough so that the rebate covers the fixed costs and leaves some for the broker to get paid.


That's correct. I mentioned negative points in the other refi thread. Taylor also posted a link to a great article from The Mortgage Professor in that thread. There is cost for sure. It's just a matter of paying it up front or paying it over time. The critical factor is time to the next refi or sale of property (which forces full payment).

Ted Valentine wrote:Also note that tfb probably carries his own escrow, eliminating this part of the closing costs for him. Carrying your own escrow* can also cost you a 1/8 to 1/4 of a point on your rate with most lenders--it all depends however. Note that you will (you better!) get back whatever you currently have in escrow when your original loan is paid off in a refinance situation. My experience is this can take a couple months. So you have to either bring that new escrow cash with you to closing (in addition to the partial month's interest payment**), or roll it into the loan and get a nice escrow refund bonus in a few months.


The practice is probably different in different areas of the country. This will be my 5th refi in 6 years. None of the lenders required escrow for property taxes and insurance (called "impound" in my area). Nor have I been offered a discount if I use one. If you currently have one though, I imagine most diehards should have no problem bridging it for a few months.
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Postby gdetore » Thu Jan 24, 2008 4:46 pm

Robert had an especially telling comment. Wed. my banker called and said the rates were down to 5.5% no points. I decided to wait for the next fed meeting. Thurs the news about booming markets and stimulous packages seems to have spooked the bank about inflation-Thurs the rate was back up to 5.65. Yo yo. So the lower Fed interests seem to have the opposite effect on rates-fear of inflation bumps up the rates. What a game!
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Postby stratton » Thu Jan 24, 2008 4:50 pm

gdetore wrote:Robert had an especially telling comment. Wed. my banker called and said the rates were down to 5.5% no points. I decided to wait for the next fed meeting. Thurs the news about booming markets and stimulous packages seems to have spooked the bank about inflation-Thurs the rate was back up to 5.65. Yo yo. So the lower Fed interests seem to have the opposite effect on rates-fear of inflation bumps up the rates.

I've had a conversation about rates with my mortgage broker friend.

Typically rates will go up Thursday afternoon and Friday because the lending intitutions are afraid something will happen over the weekend. Then Monday they will wait to see if any bad news is showing up. The best rates appear to be on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Postby woof755 » Thu Jan 24, 2008 4:56 pm

I just called Countrywide. He quoted me 5.875% for a no closing cost re-fi (it's a new loan, so our loan-to-value ratio is still pretty high). Said he could've gotten me 5.5% yesterday morning...but not yesterday afternoon after the market corrected.

So fluid.
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Postby Ted Valentine » Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:51 pm

I locked a 20 yr fixed at 5% yesterday. I feel like I robbed the bank and I'm afraid they're might try to renege on me.
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Postby Nitsuj » Thu Jan 24, 2008 7:44 pm

So glad I locked in a 6% APY CD at Penfed in October...
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