duhmel1 wrote:How about a strategy that utilizes a 'long' index fund in one IRA and a mirror image 'short' fund in the other. Suppose the market moves 10% in the next year (either way), you will have the winner fund in the Roth IRA and the other fund recharacterized in the traditional IRA. The increase in the winner fund avoids tax. I think in essence this is what the OP is suggesting.
Wagnerjb wrote:However the more extreme versions of this strategy all seem to suffer from serious issues. The example you cite (long fund + short fund) has two problems. First, the sum of the two investment returns is zero in theory, but costs and inefficiencies are likely to make the sum of them less than zero. Second, the sum of the investment returns is zero....but while you were sitting in the long and short funds, the stock market rose 20%. Oops. You have split your $200 IRA into two $100 Roth funds, ending up with $200 (at best) at the end. But you only have to pay tax on the conversion of $100. Congratulations, you have saved $28 in tax. But you have lost $40 in market gains.
duhmel1 wrote:How about a strategy that utilizes a 'long' index fund in one IRA and a mirror image 'short' fund in the other. Suppose the market moves 10% in the next year (either way), you will have the winner fund in the Roth IRA and the other fund recharacterized in the traditional IRA. The increase in the winner fund avoids tax. I think in essence this is what the OP is suggesting.
Tramper Al wrote:What you described is in essence a riskless, market-neutral pair, no? That would replace cash in my AA. And then you compare the results to a 100% long stock position, in an above average year for stocks? How does that make sense? It seems to me that an argument that requires a wholesale different AA (when the tax strategy does not) is not very convincing.
Wagnerjb wrote:Tramper Al wrote:What you described is in essence a riskless, market-neutral pair, no? That would replace cash in my AA. And then you compare the results to a 100% long stock position, in an above average year for stocks? How does that make sense? It seems to me that an argument that requires a wholesale different AA (when the tax strategy does not) is not very convincing.
OK - bring me a "riskless market neutral pair", and we can discuss the strategy.
market timer wrote:Short S&P futures vs. long Russell 1000 index fund
Wagnerjb wrote:market timer wrote:Short S&P futures vs. long Russell 1000 index fund
That doesn't look "riskless" to me. Don't you think those two indices might not track each other perfectly? Couldn't one rise 15% and the other only rise say 12%? Your spread trade could easily lose money in that scenario.
Best wishes.
duhmel1 wrote:How about a strategy that utilizes a 'long' index fund in one IRA and a mirror image 'short' fund in the other. Suppose the market moves 10% in the next year (either way), you will have the winner fund in the Roth IRA and the other fund recharacterized in the traditional IRA. The increase in the winner fund avoids tax. I think in essence this is what the OP is suggesting.
the intruder wrote:duhmel1 wrote:How about a strategy that utilizes a 'long' index fund in one IRA and a mirror image 'short' fund in the other. Suppose the market moves 10% in the next year (either way), you will have the winner fund in the Roth IRA and the other fund recharacterized in the traditional IRA. The increase in the winner fund avoids tax. I think in essence this is what the OP is suggesting.
Forgive my ignorance but how do you short an IRA?
Wagnerjb wrote:duhmel1 wrote:How about a strategy that utilizes a 'long' index fund in one IRA and a mirror image 'short' fund in the other. Suppose the market moves 10% in the next year (either way), you will have the winner fund in the Roth IRA and the other fund recharacterized in the traditional IRA. The increase in the winner fund avoids tax. I think in essence this is what the OP is suggesting.
I have no problem with the more moderate versions of this strategy...for example splitting your IRA up into several volatile asset classes and recharacterizing any that lose money.
However the more extreme versions of this strategy all seem to suffer from serious issues. The example you cite (long fund + short fund) has two problems. First, the sum of the two investment returns is zero in theory, but costs and inefficiencies are likely to make the sum of them less than zero. Second, the sum of the investment returns is zero....but while you were sitting in the long and short funds, the stock market rose 20%. Oops. You have split your $200 IRA into two $100 Roth funds, ending up with $200 (at best) at the end. But you only have to pay tax on the conversion of $100. Congratulations, you have saved $28 in tax. But you have lost $40 in market gains.
I would love to see a REAL WORLD example of how the extreme strategy would work, but all I have seen are theoretical examples. If anybody has real figures (actual prices for puts or calls or other instruments) that facilitate an extreme strategy I would love to see them.
Best wishes.
lethean46 wrote:2 separate Roths established for the year. Why? you ask. Because ... you want to fund each Roth to the total amount you want to convert for the year. If the price of the asset(s) in that Roth account tank? You can do a recharacterization IN FULL of that Roth account into the new IRA. No math required. Same day - you can convert again from the old IRA - the total amount you intend to convert for the year into the 2nd Roth account....
I've only recharacterized once. But yes. It was worth it. A "redo". Same $dollar amount converted the 2nd time ... but more shares were converted at the lower price.
Pub 590, pg 29 wrote:You cannot convert and reconvert an amount during the same tax year or, if later, during the 30-day period following a recharacterization. If you reconvert during either of these periods, it will be a failed conversion....
the intruder wrote:How can you do a short transaction since borrowing against the value of the IRA is a prohibited transaction under IRC 4975 which results in taxation of the entire IRA?
lethean46 wrote:It's much simpler than that. The long/short thing ...
Convert and buy an index fund, LONG. Market falls significantly? Dang. What to do? Convert again! into a new Roth and buy the same index fund, LONG. Market tanks significantly again? Rinse and repeat using a new Roth each time. At year end??? Now what? Recharacterize IN FULL - those Roths holding index shares with the highest purchase cost/share.
You are left with one Roth for the year. It holds the original conversion amount that you want to convert for the year. The only holding? in this Roth is the index of your choice. And this Roth holds those shares at the lowest purchase cost/share. (You recharacterized the other Roths to a new IRA).
xerty24 wrote:lethean46 wrote:2 separate Roths established for the year. Why? you ask. Because ... you want to fund each Roth to the total amount you want to convert for the year. If the price of the asset(s) in that Roth account tank? You can do a recharacterization IN FULL of that Roth account into the new IRA. No math required. Same day - you can convert again from the old IRA - the total amount you intend to convert for the year into the 2nd Roth account....
I've only recharacterized once. But yes. It was worth it. A "redo". Same $dollar amount converted the 2nd time ... but more shares were converted at the lower price.
I think you lucked out in that you only had your stock drop once. My reading of Pub 590 says you can't reconvert more than once/year, with a minimum waiting period of a month in between. Admittedly the rules may have been different in the past, as I know they used to allow unlimited recharacterizations initially until the brokers screamed that some people were recharacterizing and reconverting every single day their stock dropped and generating reams of paperwork...Pub 590, pg 29 wrote:You cannot convert and reconvert an amount during the same tax year or, if later, during the 30-day period following a recharacterization. If you reconvert during either of these periods, it will be a failed conversion....
duhmel1 wrote:Let's do the calculation in more detail. Take $100 and split it into two IRAs. Let's assume the market goes up 10%. In an ideal world one IRA would be worth $55 and the other $45. You recharacterize the $45 IRA. Net result is that you have the same amount of money but have avoided paying taxes on $55. If you had $100K in the IRA and you were in a 40% federal + state bracket, you avoid taxes on $5K or $2K. You get the same result if the market goes down 10%.
celia wrote:lethean46 wrote:It's much simpler than that. The long/short thing ...
Convert and buy an index fund, LONG. Market falls significantly? Dang. What to do? Convert again! into a new Roth and buy the same index fund, LONG. Market tanks significantly again? Rinse and repeat using a new Roth each time. At year end??? Now what? Recharacterize IN FULL - those Roths holding index shares with the highest purchase cost/share.
You are left with one Roth for the year. It holds the original conversion amount that you want to convert for the year. The only holding? in this Roth is the index of your choice. And this Roth holds those shares at the lowest purchase cost/share. (You recharacterized the other Roths to a new IRA).
Let's simplify this even more. You don't need to buy funds or stocks that are polar opposites of each other. You could use a stock fund and a bond fund, for example, knowing that they don't move in tandem. Or an international fund. Or even just convert $x of a fund, a few months later convert another $x of the same fund, and latter in the same year, convert another $x of the same fund, where $x is the amount you can afford to pay taxes on. Whatever you start with, it is important that you do each conversion into a new (empty) Roth. Then at the end of the year, you re-characterize everything except the account that has grown the most. If you do this by the end of the year, you will be able to repeat the whole process the following year, after a minimum wait of 30 days.
If you wait until the following year to do the recharacterizations, not only will you have to pay taxes by April 15 on whatever is still in the Roth accounts (you can amend your returns if you convert by Oct 15 of that following year), but you will not want to put the recharacterization funds back into the original tIRA, since Vanguard will then "lock" the account for the rest of the year, preventing you from doing more conversions. That is why lethan46 says to recharacterize into a new tIRA. Then you can continue converting funds that are in your original tIRA.
lethean46 wrote:I didn't think about when to convert again or recharacterize ... week in and week out. But if the market came up and slapped me in the face HARD? I knew what to do. Had the extra cash available in the OLD IRA. Had the accounts already open and sitting there empty ... all just in case.
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