"Yes, You Can Supercharge Your Portfolio" -- A Gem

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"Yes, You Can Supercharge Your Portfolio" -- A Gem

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Hi Bogleheads:

Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth have written a book that is not all Boglehead philosophy, but the book is easy to read, not dogmatic and the authors offer some interesting alternatives. We can learn from these excerpts:
"A popular online discussion group hosted by Morningstar called the "Vanguard Diehards" frequently hashes out portfolio-related issues."

"The financial service industry is forever engineering and promoting products to sell to investors."

"People are forever bragging about their investment returns. Never mind all the cases where they're conveniently forgetting to mention all their losses, are just plane wrong, or are outright lying."

"The bitter truth is that simple index funds outperform most of their actively managed peers."

"As John Bogle pointed out in the Financial Analysts Journal, after expenses, taxes, and inflation, the average actively managed mutual fund delivered only 34% of the profit of an S&P 500 Index fund from 1983 to 2003."

"When we buy and sell stocks -- We don't get to see who's on the other side of the table. -- Would you feel differently if you knew that a team of gunslingers from Goldman Sachs was betting against you?"

"Most people don't invest all at once, informed by the latest research in financial theory. They wander through the Wall Street supermarket, picking up; whatever scraps are dangled in front of them at the
time."

"Knowing returns without understanding risks is like knowing only one team's score in a football game."
"The time to decide you've taken on too much risk isn't the day after the market is down 20 percent."

"To the extent that we want to dampen the volatility of our stock portfolios, we just add bonds."

"An all-stock or an all-bond portfolio isn't usually as efficient as one that contains both asset classes."

"As with stocks, we recommend a simple low-expense index fund, in this case using short-term, high-quality bonds."

"The risks of your portfolio can't be boiled down to its standard deviation. The real risk is that your portfolio fails to meet your investment goals."

"Mean-variance optimization is a nifty teaching tool with little practical application."

"Monte Carlo simulation is the best tool available today to analyze a portfolio's prospective performance, but like any tool, it can be dangerous if used ineptly."

"Rookie mistakes will do you far more damage than having a superchaged portfolio will do you good."

"John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group and the patron saint of investors everywhere, very sensibly maintains that a broad index fund such as a total stock market index is the ideal equity holding."

"A market-wide level of diversification is an extremely diversified portfolio."

"If you were unfamiliar with the power of Modern Portfolio Theory up until now, we hope you'll stop and thank the Almighty for this great gift."

"Investors pursue their dreams of beating the market through such futile means as individual stock picking, short-term market timing, and momentum investing--."

"Assets moving in opposite directions for years can change on a dime and start moving in tandem."

"Unfortunately, stocks that diverge a lot on the upside are precisely the same ones that do so on the downside."

"When people say that hedge funds are 'lightly regulated,' they're not kidding."

"We urge you to use extreme caution when adding junk bonds. They're called 'junk' for a reason: What you gain in yield can quickly evaporate in principal."

"Most Americans are woefully undersaving for retirement. A sizzling asset allocation isn't going to help them if they're not putting enough away."

"Our goal should be to build a well-constructed portfolio that can suffer the slings and arrows of market forces in a variety of situations and emerge intact from the ordeal."

"The diversified investor is always in the position of wishing he owned more of the big winners and fewer of the big losers."

"Most investors radically overestimate their competence in this area (stock picking)."

"The goal of portfolio planning is to use diversification to secure the maximum expected returns for the minimum expected risk in meeting portfolio objectives."
Thank you Mr. Stein and Mr. DeMuth.

MORE INVESTMENT GEMS

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Stein and DeMuth

Post by pkcrafter »

Thanks for the great quotes, Taylor. There are a few in here that could make the hall of fame. Very refreshing from two guys who sound like they've moved a little closer to camp Bogle.

Paul
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Post by 4th&Goal »

Thanks Taylor. I hope some of the Ben Stein critics will now realize that Ben is not the Devil.
"I advise you to go on living solely to enrage those who are paying your annuities. It is the only pleasure I have left." | (Voltaire)
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Post by Ariel »

Ben Stein may not be the Devil but he is "suffering from mild delusion" or worse. He now fancies himself an expert on science, yet he cannot tell real science apart from pseudo-scientific garbage.

This hilarious little video shows him for the arrogant fool that he is, at least on the science front.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ThQQuHtzHM
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Federal Aid for Homeless Pets

Post by Prokofiev »

Not only against "Darwinism" (rhymes with communism) and evolution (intelligent design believer), but today he's on TV asking for federal aid for dogs and cats.

I could not tell if it was all just a big joke or not, but he seemed 100% sincere.

Seems to be getter a little crazy . . . a bit like a right-wing Michael Moore.
Last edited by Prokofiev on Sun Apr 20, 2008 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Jack »

Somehow I doubt that a quiz show host has suddenly discovered a method of picking individual stocks that allows you to "beat the market" based on monte carlo simulations.

But you can be very sure that authors who title their books "Yes, You Can Supercharge Your Portfolio" and "Yes, You Can Time the Market" do not have investors interests at heart. These are porn titles intended to enrich the authors, not their readers.
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Re: "Yes, You Can Supercharge Your Portfolio" -- A

Post by rich »

Taylor Larimore wrote:Hi Bogleheads:

Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth have written a book that is not all Boglehead philosophy, but the book is easy to read, not dogmatic and the authors offer some interesting alternatives.
As always thank you for sharing the excerpts. However, if this is the bar for "a gem" then Jim Cramer's recent book should be one too.

As an aside, Ben Stein's advice is of mixed quality (some excellent, some horrible) and it kind of makes him dangerous to a novice.
Best regards, | Rich
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Post by Pacific »

I love both Ben Stein and Ferris Buller.
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Post by rich »

Pacific wrote:I love both Ben Stein and Ferris Buller.
I enjoyed that movie too!

However, does anyone know how many instances of horrendous advice that Ben Stein has given over the years? Anyone? Anyone?
:D
Best regards, | Rich
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Post by Jack »

The real question is who kidnapped Taylor and took over his account. Over the years Taylor has held a few basic investing principles:

1. Don't try to time the market.
2. Don't try to beat the market by picking stocks.
3. Beware of variable annuities.
4. Keep it simple.

Out of the hundreds of investment books published each year, most of which are garbage, Taylor has singled out this one by an author who contradicts every one of the above principles. A lot of people on this forum, especially novices, take Taylor's advice to heart and presumably if he says that "Yes, You Can Supercharge Your Portfolio" is a gem, he is suggesting that they should all be supercharging their portfolios. It is hard to fathom. Perhaps is it the celebrity effect. Would he be giving the time of day to someone who contradicts all of his basic principles if his name were not Ben Stein?
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Post by nisiprius »

Ben Stein appears to have become a propagandist for creationism. I'm not sure whether this should affect my opinion of his financial wisdom... but I'm afraid that in fact, it does.
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Uninformed criticism

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Jack wrote: "Over the years Taylor has held a few basic investing principles:

1. Don't try to time the market.
2. Don't try to beat the market by picking stocks.
3. Beware of variable annuities.
4. Keep it simple.

Out of the hundreds of investment books published each year, most of which are garbage, Taylor has singled out this one by an author who contradicts every one of the above principles."


Hello Jack:
Where do the excerpts contradict the four investing principles you listed (which I agree with)?
"1. Don't try to time the market."

Excerpt: "Investors pursue their dreams of beating the market through such futile means as individual stock picking, short-term market timing, and momentum investing--."
"2. Don't try to beat the market by picking stocks."

Excerpt: "Investors pursue their dreams of beating the market through such futile means as individual stock picking, short-term market timing, and momentum investing--."
3. Beware of variable annuities.

I don't recall the book mentioning "variable annuities." Annuities are not listed in the Index.
"4. Keep it simple."

Excerpts: "The bitter truth is that simple index funds outperform most of their actively managed peers."

"As with stocks, we recommend a simple low-expense index fund, in this case using short-term, high-quality bonds."
I must assume you did not read the excerpts before making your post.

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Post by OptionAl »

See how easy it is to be a financial expert? Just repeat a few bland truisms as if you discovered them.
Ben Stein is a lawyer posing as an "economist".
Having never seen a dollar he couldn't refuse, he's also an insurance salesman, pushing variable annuities to the suckers.
Now, he's pretending to be a biologist, too, debunking Darwin.
He was a speech-writer for Nixon. He still thinks Nixon did nothing wrong. He claimed there was no Deep Throat, then when the identity was revealed he called him the "worst person on earth".
Remember "Win Ben Stein's Money"? He "knew" more than anybody. That was no doubt fixed, as well.
How can anybody take that clown seriously?
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Re: Uninformed criticism

Post by Jack »

Taylor Larimore wrote: I must assume you did not read the excerpts before making your post.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Yes, I did read the excerpts. But that is the confounding thing about Ben Stein. First he says all of these nice, reasonable things that seem like they could come right out of John Bogle's mouth. But then he follows it up by direct contradictions. The first half of the book is all of the sensible stuff, but the second half is all about how picking individual stocks can "supercharge" your portfolio. The question is why you would promote a book that tells people how to "supercharge" their portfolios by picking stocks?

His previous book was entitled "Yes, You Can Time the Market" which is based on exactly the same PE10 averaging stuff that hocus promoted.

Stein is also a paid promoter for the variable annuity industry.

All of these things are direct contradictions to your investment philosophy and no amount of sweet talking in the first half of his book can make up for the terrible advice given later. Why does Ben Stein do this? The only thing I can think of is that the reasonable advice is too boring. You can't get rich selling reasonable, boring books about investing (perhaps you know this first hand). So he has to juice it up with something exciting like stock picking and market timing.

People look up to you for your wisdom. You are the one who brings everyone back to earth with your simple principles cited above when they go off into the weeds on micro slice-and-dice and discussions of 20 basis point diversification bonuses. When you say that a book is a gem, people take you seriously. Why would you promote a book and author whose actual teachings directly contradict those values despite all of the reasonable quotes up front?

As I've said before, with Ben Stein you never know if you are getting Dr. Jeckle or Mr. Hyde. He's a dangerous author to recommend to novices.
Last edited by Jack on Mon Apr 21, 2008 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by OptionAl »

People who think Stein has anything to say about investing should read his 8/12/07 blather in the WSJ, where he dismisses the concern about the mortgage crisis as "chicken littleism".
He leads off the article with the false claim he's an "economist" here to educate the masses: "So, because I am an economist, among other duties, here is a little perspective on the recent turmoil in the stock and bond markets".
He then praises Bear Stearnes: "This venerable and clever financial house has taken some major hits on subprime mortgages lately. That is sad for the stockholders (I am a very small stockholder), and the price of Bear Stearns stock has tumbled...Some smart, brave people will make a fortune buying in these days, and then we’ll all wonder what the scare was about.."
Do you really want to take financial advice from somebody who had money in BS stock?
That would be taking dining advice from somebody who thinks Taco Bell is the ultimate in cuisine. (Which he does in a later article. Or does the shill have money in that stock too?)
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Re: Uninformed criticism

Post by 4th&Goal »

Jack wrote:
The question is why you would promote a book that tells people how to "supercharge" their portfolios by picking stocks?
Jack,
Taylor shared "Gems" from the book as he has done with many other books. He is not "promoting the book." He warns that the book is not all Boglehead philosophy. Taylor says, "We can learn from these excerpts" and then lists some of the level headed Boglehead-like comments in the book. Lighten up a bit.
"I advise you to go on living solely to enrage those who are paying your annuities. It is the only pleasure I have left." | (Voltaire)
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Post by Stevewc »

I think Phil DeMuth played a huge part in writing the book and is more involved in the financial advising end of things. Also, Ben Stein comes from a family deeply involved in the financial world. I'm sure he grew up eating financial matters for breakfast. I can't remember the position he held but his father was a well known finance guru. There's little to no reason to argue about any of this but the book is very interesting. I'm now reading all the recommended diehard books but I have read about ten books on investing since Christmas 2007. I'm not up there with all you guys yet but I'm listening, reading and learning.
Later, Steve
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Re: Uninformed criticism

Post by Rodc »

4th&Goal wrote:
Jack wrote:
The question is why you would promote a book that tells people how to "supercharge" their portfolios by picking stocks?
Jack,
Taylor shared "Gems" from the book as he has done with many other books. He is not "promoting the book." He warns that the book is not all Boglehead philosophy. Taylor says, "We can learn from these excerpts" and then lists some of the level headed Boglehead-like comments in the book. Lighten up a bit.
With all due respect to Taylor, he said:
Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth have written a book that is not all Boglehead philosophy, but the book is easy to read, not dogmatic and the authors offer some interesting alternatives. We can learn from these excerpts:
While not a 5 star endorsement, it is an endorsement. It sure looks like he is saying we should at least consider those "interesting alternatives", which one might reasonably assumes means the "super charging" by stock picking.

Taylor is a super star, and rightly so. But even super stars sometimes make mistakes. My take is that endorsing this book was such a mistake.
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.
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Re: Uninformed criticism

Post by Jack »

4th&Goal wrote: He is not "promoting the book.
I dunno. The title of the post is "Yes, You Can Supercharge Your Portfolio -- A Gem." Sure sounds like an endorsement to me.

It is also listed on his page, "Taylor Larimore's Investment Gems"

http://www.diehards.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=881

with all the other books by Swedroe, Ferri and Bogle along with a Amazon.com link to purchase it. Kind of seems like an endorsement.
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per the last

Post by gmtret »

Ignorance is blissssssss... :roll:
"The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and science." | - Albert Einstein
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Now wait a moment-

Post by gmtret »

This dern m* dohicky is messing wid me again. I swear and declare that when I got to the bottom of this conver. , there was a chart showing that only Turkey surpassed the USA in the number of people not believing in evolution, and so my remark above. Sorry to be so far off the mark.

Good luck,
Chris
"The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and science." | - Albert Einstein
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Quotes

Post by pkcrafter »

Taylor simply listed some quotes from the book, all of which are worth noting. Some are even insightful and worth keeping. Stein and DeMuth may say other things in the book, but Taylor did not quote them.

Paul
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Re: Now wait a moment-

Post by Ariel »

gmtret wrote:This dern m* dohicky is messing wid me again. I swear and declare that when I got to the bottom of this conver. , there was a chart showing that only Turkey surpassed the USA in the number of people not believing in evolution, and so my remark above. Sorry to be so far off the mark.

Good luck,
Chris
There was, and I saw it, too. Poster must have removed his/her message. Or maybe moderator did. So you're not seeing things :lol:
Last edited by Ariel on Mon Apr 21, 2008 9:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Now wait a moment-

Post by Rodc »

gmtret wrote:This dern m* dohicky is messing wid me again. I swear and declare that when I got to the bottom of this conver. , there was a chart showing that only Turkey surpassed the USA in the number of people not believing in evolution, and so my remark above. Sorry to be so far off the mark.

Good luck,
Chris
Don't feel bad. It was there and unfortunately the whole post was deleted by the mods, rather than just the graph.
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.
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Post by Pacific »

To all you nit-pickers (you know who you are!):

Taylor Larimore is the real gem.
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Post by Paul Douglas Boyer »

I reviewed the book a couple of months ago.

http://madmoneymachine.com/2008/02/14/t ... portfolio/

At first I wanted to hate the book.
Upon opening, I was excited about it.
In the end, I was disappointed.
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Post by rich »

Pacific wrote:
Taylor Larimore is the real gem.
Yes definitely.

This makes his very occasional missteps all that much more glaring!
Best regards, | Rich
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Post by 4th&Goal »

For my brother and sister Bogleheads with visceral reactions to perceived apostate investment books I remind them that autoignition temperature of paper is 451 °F.
"I advise you to go on living solely to enrage those who are paying your annuities. It is the only pleasure I have left." | (Voltaire)
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Post by johnjtaylorus »

No idea why Stein wandered off into cosmology, but he has an undergrad degree in econ and was valedictorian at the best law school in America.
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Post by HerbertSitz »

johnjtaylorus wrote:No idea why Stein wandered off into cosmology, but he has an undergrad degree in econ and was valedictorian at the best law school in America.
Yeah, it's interesting. He's obviously a smart guy. Of course, being smart doesn't necessarily give you good judgment.

And his stance on evolution versus intelligent design clearly shows he doesn't have good judgment, doesn't know how to weigh evidence rationally, doesn't understand what actually counts as evidence. He's pretty good with the rhetoric, though. I would take anything he says with a big grain of salt.

There's also the issue with his association with the insurance industry and his frequent recommendations of variable annuities. That rubs me the wrong way. He may every so often add "oh, and be careful of costs", but that's a warning that I'm suspect is frequently misunderstood or ignored by a large number of people who actually take his advice.
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Post by Phil DeMuth »

I had no idea Ben was so popular among the Bogleheads! If any of you are not regular readers of his NY Times column, I would encourage you to spend a dime. If you don't like the way he stands up for the ordinary shareholder, I can't imagine who you would like. No one, probably.

RE: Expelled -- OT.
....Deleted for Religious content...

RE: Market timing. The market timing book expresses the view expounded by John Bogle in BOGLE ON MUTUAL FUNDS (p. 244 et seq.) Again, I almost get the impression that people are criticizing a book they haven't read.

RE: Annuities. Insurance companies are evil and must be destroyed. Thank God Vanguard doesn't sell annuities, or Berkshire Hathaway, or TIAA-CREF. Question: the average boomer has a 5-figure savings account and some equity in his home -- oops, never mind the equity in his home part -- lets just focus on that 5-figure savings account. How is he going to pay for retirement? I think he is going to have to annuitize.
Does somebody have a better idea?

RE: Individual Stocks. Another evil! Thank God no self-respecting mutual fund would own one. Or, if they did own one for some reason, they wouldn't own it at anything other than at a market-cap weighting.

I hope no one here owns VFINX. That evil fund has a 4% weighting to XOM -- well-know to be an individual stock. It has about a 1% allocation or greater to 22 individual stocks. Imagine, suggesting that there might be some stocks within the index that it would be better to weight at 1% than others.

Imagine, thinking that owning slightly more of some stocks and less of others might have a beneficial effect on a portfolio. Surely there's no evidence for this. Of course, there is that fundamental weighting thing - Fama/French, Arnott, Siegel, etc. But that doesn't mean it's open to debate, does it? Or that it's subject to modern portfolio theory? No, of course not....
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Post by Mel Lindauer »

Phil DeMuth wrote:RE: Annuities. Insurance companies are evil and must be destroyed. Thank God Vanguard doesn't sell annuities, or Berkshire Hathaway, or TIAA-CREF. Question: the average boomer has a 5-figure savings account and some equity in his home -- oops, never mind the equity in his home part -- lets just focus on that 5-figure savings account. How is he going to pay for retirement? I think he is going to have to annuitize.
Does somebody have a better idea?
Hi Phil:

I think most Diehards make a clear distinction between an immediate annuity, which they consider to be good and actually recommend in many situations, and a high-cost variable annuity with their lock-'em in surrender fees, which are usually sold, not bought, and are considered bad in most situations.

Regards,

Mel
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Post by HerbertSitz »

Mel Lindauer wrote:
Phil DeMuth wrote:RE: Annuities. [. . . ] the average boomer has a 5-figure savings account and some equity in his home [ . . . ] How is he going to pay for retirement? I think he is going to have to annuitize.
Does somebody have a better idea?
Hi Phil:

I think most Diehards make a clear distinction between an immediate annuity, which they consider to be good and actually recommend in many situations, and a high-cost variable annuity with their lock-'em in surrender fees, which are usually sold, not bought, and are considered bad in most situations.

Regards,

Mel
I agree with Mel. And in rare case where variable annuity is most appropriate sources like Vanguard and a few others have fees that are at least sane in comparison to the outrageous fees of most insurance companies.

Sorry, Mr. Stein doesn't get off the hook by pointing out Vanguard sells variable annuities too. Compare the terms and you'll see what a ripoff the offerings of most insurance companies are. Vanguard variable annuities have no sales loads, no surrender fees, and average annual fees of a percent or two less than most other companies. Sorry, but it's not an exaggeration to call the strongly pushed variable annuity offerings of most insurance companies a scam.

I had the treat a couple weeks ago of lunch at a restaurant where I sat next to a table where one sales associate was teaching a new associate the nuances of pushing variable annuities. Their conversation made me nauseous. And angry.
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Post by Ariel »

Jack wrote:
Phil DeMuth wrote:Personally, I don't understand why atheists should be allowed to promote their particular religion in schools at the expense of all other views. Do people here believe in master and inferior races as well?
That is one of the most vile, disgusting things I have ever seen on this forum. Your implication, since it is a major theme of Stein's movie, is that evolutionary scientists are responsible for the Holocaust. You should be ashamed and you should apologize.
I agree. I have lost all respect for DeMuth now, as well as Stein. Their ignorance and arrogance are beyond belief, as though they have any clue what they are talking about. I've seen the trailer, and Ben Stein's movie is absolute rubbish and propaganda.

DeMuth: Have you bothered to read the judgement by the conservative judge in the Dover, PA, school-board trial, which exposed the anti-evolution movement for the politically motivated pseudo-scientific fraud it is? Do you not understand or appreciate the separation of church and state? Do you understand the difference between religion, based on faith, and science, which derives from evidence?

To try to use science to support religion is not only silly but dangerous, not only because it is non-scientific but because it distorts what is most important in religion. God as a hypothesis, what a foolish idea! It reduces God to the lab, and it diminishes God's power to what only the most ignorant human minds can understand!

And by the way, there are plenty of religious scientists, as well as many who aren't. But being religious won't get you tenure when you're a lousy scientist, nor will being a non-believer help you one iota if you don't produce new scientific insights through grants and publications.

Stick to what you know, DeMuth. Or better yet, open your narrow mind to the world in which you live.
Do what you will, the capital is at hazard ... - Justice Samuel Putnam (1830), as quoted by John Bogle (1994)
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Post by Rodc »

RE: Expelled -- OT. Quote deleted for political content.
Do we have no standards of decency for big shots?

Sentence delete for personal attack.

To the mods: just why is it that you feel these statements should be allowed here, when things far milder from people who are part of the community are routinely deleted? (such as the chart that simply showed that only Turkey has a lower percentage of citizens who do not believe in the theory of evolution than the US? That chart came with no commentary and lasted less than a few minutes)

Rod: Moderators can't be watching every minute. Moderators do their best. -- Taylor

[note from admin Alex - IF THINGS GET THIS BAD, SEND A PM TO AN ADMIN OR MODERATOR OR TWO (OR THREE). We don't magically know there's a problem and we don't spend all day watching every corner of the forum, someone has to tell us when there's a problem.]
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.
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maybe I missed it, but

Post by hollowcave2 »

Maybe I missed it, but how did a discussion of cosmology and religion get into a discussion about planning a financial portfolio?

There must be some kernel of this subject offered in Ben Stein's book, but I don't see how that affects the portfolio ideas, one way or the other.

Again, maybe I'm naive, but I think some are reading a bit too much into Phil's comment above. I am not sure if the comment was serious or tonque in cheek anyway.

But in response to Phil, I think there are many Bogleheads on this board who do believe in God, it's just that it seems irrelevant to the discussion of portfolio construction. Perhaps the field of ethics would be a better guide in the business world.

Ben Stein is a colorful, complex character, that's for sure. He seems to be a lightning rod for many emotions. I'll just stick to his financial ideas on this forum.

Steve
Rodc
Posts: 13601
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:46 am

Post by Rodc »

I am not sure if the comment was serious or tonque in cheek anyway.


Hard to know of course. The whole thing though, top to bottom is rude and ignorant at best. Most people were raised to behave better than that. That is a new low for this site, which is unfortunate and reflects badly on Mr DeMuth, not that he apparently cares. :shrug:
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.
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