Basic bond question ...

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briang_g
Posts: 68
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:30 am

Basic bond question ...

Post by briang_g »

All,

I am a little confused about bonds.

The 3 fund index portfolio wiki suggests a single bond (Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund).

The Bogleheads investment philosophy wiki suggest two bond funds, one is the Total Bond market fund, and the other is a TIPS fund.

Assumming I have both funds, what factors determine how I should choose the ratio should of the Total Bond market fund to the TIPS fund ?

Thanks,

Brian
Day9
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Re: Basic bond question ...

Post by Day9 »

Both are quite low risk, low reward in the world of investing. But the TIPS is even lower risk, and lower reward. This isn't exactly true and another Boglehead will hopefully give you the nitty gritty details.
I'm just a fan of the person I got my user name from
vtanzi
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Re: Basic bond question ...

Post by vtanzi »

Day9 wrote:Both are quite low risk, low reward in the world of investing. But the TIPS is even lower risk, and lower reward. This isn't exactly true and another Boglehead will hopefully give you the nitty gritty details.
I would be more cautious calling bonds low risk---bonds have undergone 3 decades of growth and Interest Rates are very low--once interest rates start to go up--and it is only a matter of time--bonds will go down in value--so I would characterize Bonds as more risky at the moment
jdilla1107
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Re: Basic bond question ...

Post by jdilla1107 »

vtanzi wrote:
Day9 wrote:Both are quite low risk, low reward in the world of investing. But the TIPS is even lower risk, and lower reward. This isn't exactly true and another Boglehead will hopefully give you the nitty gritty details.
I would be more cautious calling bonds low risk---bonds have undergone 3 decades of growth and Interest Rates are very low--once interest rates start to go up--and it is only a matter of time--bonds will go down in value--so I would characterize Bonds as more risky at the moment
Ugh. There sure are a lot of interest rate timers on this forum.
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House Blend
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Re: Basic bond question ...

Post by House Blend »

briang_g wrote:Assumming I have both funds, what factors determine how I should choose the ratio should of the Total Bond market fund to the TIPS fund ?
There's no right answer. Having your fixed income holdings be anywhere from 0% to 50% TIPS would put you in the Boglehead mainstream.

The Vanguard Target Retirement funds have no TIPS at all until you get to around 5-10(?) years from the target date. Presumably the reasoning is that young accumulators' income and savings will keep pace with or beat inflation (and that heavy stock allocations will on average beat inflation), so have less need for TIPS.

Old folks with "enough" need to preserve the buying power of what they've got. So more TIPS for them.
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telemark
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Re: Basic bond question ...

Post by telemark »

There are no TIPS in the Total Bond Market fund, so adding them gives you some additional diversification. TIPS are a relatively new asset class and there's much debate on how much to hold or whether you should hold them at all. Personally, I like a ratio of 3/4 TBM to 1/4 TIPS, enough to give some diversification benefit without betting the farm on TIPS, but I'm not prepared to defend that rigorously.
grok87
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Re: Basic bond question ...

Post by grok87 »

well the market cap of the aggregate bond fund is 16.8 trillion vs. 0.7 trillion for tips.
so market weighting would say like 95/5. But i follow swensen and bodie and think much higher allocations to tips are warranted, probably 50% or more...
RIP Mr. Bogle.
JimInIllinois
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Re: Basic bond question ...

Post by JimInIllinois »

jdilla1107 wrote:Ugh. There sure are a lot of interest rate timers on this forum.
It would be timing if bonds were yielding 5% and you were sure rates were heading up to 7% so you bought a CD yielding 4%. Nobody is doing that.

For stocks, future value is harder to predict the further out you go. It's basically a random walk. For bonds, future value is easier to predict since, barring default, we know the dates and amounts of all future payouts. Why would I buy a 5-year bond when I can buy a 5-year CD that yields more?
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Bustoff
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Re: Basic bond question ...

Post by Bustoff »

briang_g wrote:All,
I am a little confused about bonds.
The 3 fund index portfolio wiki suggests a single bond (Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund).
The Bogleheads investment philosophy wiki suggest two bond funds, one is the Total Bond market fund, and the other is a TIPS fund.
Assumming I have both funds, what factors determine how I should choose the ratio should of the Total Bond market fund to the TIPS fund ?
Thanks,
Brian
See this for Vanguards answer to your question. They don't include TIPS in Target funds until 2015 or you're around 60 yoa.
https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGAp ... #GlidePath

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dbr
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Re: Basic bond question ...

Post by dbr »

briang_g wrote:All,

I am a little confused about bonds.

The 3 fund index portfolio wiki suggests a single bond (Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund).

The Bogleheads investment philosophy wiki suggest two bond funds, one is the Total Bond market fund, and the other is a TIPS fund.

Assumming I have both funds, what factors determine how I should choose the ratio should of the Total Bond market fund to the TIPS fund ?

Thanks,

Brian
It is simply a preference regarding the degree to which you want some of your assets to be insensitive to direct effects of inflation. That makes some sense for people who are otherwise at risk to inflation. That would mean specifically those who are retired, especially those who might otherwise have an income stream that is sensitive to inflation, such as a fixed pension.

As far as portfolio examples go, those things are not recommendations that people should do this or should do that. Those portfolios are examples of how a person might intelligently select their investments. Most of the various alternatives are not much different in end result. Within the examples the factors that do matter are things like stock/bond ratio, which is a property of any portfolio.

If the Wiki is causing people to think there are some kind of contradictory recommendations given here, then there is a major misunderstanding of what is intended by listing these various examples. This is a little like a person finding an excellent recipe for fish thinking that the book is telling them they should never eat pasta.
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Taylor Larimore
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Total Bond and TIPS ratio ?

Post by Taylor Larimore »

briang_g wrote:All,

I am a little confused about bonds.

The 3 fund index portfolio wiki suggests a single bond (Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund).

The Bogleheads investment philosophy wiki suggest two bond funds, one is the Total Bond market fund, and the other is a TIPS fund.

Assumming I have both funds, what factors determine how I should choose the ratio should of the Total Bond market fund to the TIPS fund ?
Brian:
In my opinion, any "split" between 25% TIPS to 50% TIPS is reasonable. At Mel's suggestion, we have used a 50% TBM/50% TIPS allocation (for maximum non-correlation) since Vanguard's Inflation-Protected Securities Fund's 2000 inception. This is the result:

YEAR..INFLATION..TBM ....TIPS
2001......2.8%.......8.4%.....7.7%
2002......1.6%.......8.3%....16.6%
2003......2.3%.......4.0%.....8.0%
2004......2.7%.......4.2%.....8.3%
2005......3.4%.......2.4%.....2.6%
2006......3.2%.......4.3%.....4.3%
2007... ..2.8%.......5.9%....11.6%
2008......0.1%.......5.1%....-2.8%
2009......2.7%.......5.9%....10.8%
2010......1.5%.......6.5%.....6.2%
2011......3.0% ......7.6%....13.2%
2012......1.7%.......4.1%.....6.8%

Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

Best wishes
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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