Taylor Larimore,
I'd be interested in hearing your personal view on whether this fund would add value to the three fund portfolio. Obviously it would not add to the simplicity of the three fund portfolio, but do you think it would add any benefit? Assuming it does, would this benefit warrant changing to a 4 fund portfolio and if so, what percentage of your bond portion would you recommend?
Thanks,
K.I.S
nisiprius wrote:Hopefully ValueThinker will drop in and explain it, but it all has to do with the actual mechanics of hedging itself. I think it's something like this. The fund needs to buy some kind of currency futures contracts, and because a bond has a maturity date and a known value, you know how much of the futures contract you need to buy--if the bond is going to be worth 1000 bolivars when it matures on 1/15/2015, you need to buy a contract that offsets the difference in dollar value between 1000 bolivars today and 1000 bolivars on the maturity date. Since stocks have no maturity date and no known future value, you don't know what contract you need to buy and it's very difficult to hedge them.understandingJH wrote:Why doesn't Vanguard (and other fund families) routinely offer hedged international stock indexes? Perhaps this has to do with Eric's explanation that the currency movement is greater for bonds relatively, than it is for stocks.Well, Vanguard's paper on Global fixed income: considerations for US investors has some pretty charts that show the exact effects of the diversification, and I think ice cream and gelato is about right. What the paper convinced me is that IF the past characteristics of the asset classes persist, then the optimum mix might well be something more than 0% international bonds. But my gosh the benefits are microscopic. Look at figure 7. A reduction in standard deviation from 9.7 to 9.5? As my kids used to say, big whoop. Other charts make it clear that currency fluctuation means that unhedged bonds do increase portfolio volatility aka "risk", despite correlations, and that yes indeed, currency fluctuations matter.Chan_va wrote:If better yields is what you are after, why not just increase your equities allocation? Do intnl bonds have a different correlation to stocks and bonds? Portfolio diversification means nothing unless one component of the portfolio zigs when the other zags.
Otherwise it's like diversifying from an all ice cream diet by adding gelato.
understandingJH wrote:Interesting news, as regards hedged vs. unhedged , I'll have to reread the Vanguard white paper. But I did take the PIMCO Global Bond Fund and compared the differences between the hedged (PGDAX ER 0.80) and unhedged (PADMX ER 0.80) share classes. To me it looks like hedged has less volatility and slightly lower returns.
Of course this is looking at the asset class in isolation as an earlier posted mentioned. And the currency risk problem is one I still don't understand be it stocks or bonds. Over the long term wouldn't it all even out? Nonetheless, I'm not holding market-weight US/Intl stock allocations due to the "currency risk" factor and since under-weighting international seems to be the de-facto standard (though if this was my primary reason it would be the logic fallacy of Argumentum ad populum, I'll admit!). I plan to research this more in the future.
For what it's worth isn't the US bond market something like only 1/3 of the global market? Does this mean the world market-cap aficionados are going to start adding ~66% of their bond allocation to international bonds? (i.e. 45/55 US/Intl Stocks, 34 US/66 Intl Bonds)
Random Musings" wrote:Mark my words, five to ten years from now, Vanguard will increase the international bond portion from 20% to 30% in their TR fund..."
petrico wrote:Am I the only one that thinks the immediate move to add this sub-class to the target retirement funds is more for the benefit of the new fund than it is for the old funds?
--Pete
Am I the only one that thinks the immediate move to add this sub-class to the target retirement funds is more for the benefit of the new fund than it is for the old funds?
LadyGeek wrote:Being adventurous, I went searching for the actual SEC filings.
Is this it? Series: S000035729 Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund
Form N-1/A (Initial registration statement filed on Form N1A for open-end management investment companies). I'm confused on the name of Vanguard Charlotte Funds, so I'm not sure I'm looking in the right place.
There are 6 funds updated on 2013-02-06, 2 filed on 2011-10-31.
VictoriaF wrote:This will be a great topic for BH12.
Victoria
stemikger wrote:VictoriaF wrote:This will be a great topic for BH12.
Victoria
I doubt it will get Mr. Bogle's blessing. He still does not invest in international equities. I will stick to the plain vanilla Balanced Index Fund. This is where Mr. Bogle saves for his Grandchildren. I don't particulary like how Vanguard keeps changing the Target Retirement Funds. It kind of makes me uncomfortable because I feel there is a part of it that they feel they have to keep up with what the other fund families are doing.
VictoriaF wrote:This will be a great topic for BH12.
Victoria
Bustoff wrote:Will Vanguard account holders get an opportunity to invest before the institutional money drives up the price ?
Bustoff wrote:Anyone know what risk level Vanguard will assign to this fund ?
Will Vanguard account holders get an opportunity to invest before the institutional money drives up the price ?
Bustoff wrote:VictoriaF wrote:This will be a great topic for BH12.
Victoria
When is BH12. I would like to attend.
Grt2bOutdoors wrote:They tore up the promissory notes and basically said, we'll give you back 35 cents on the dollar (that was only after the threat of bringing the matter before the courts)
femur wrote:WHL wrote:so, should our 3-fund portfolios now be changed to a 4-fund portfolio?
Or now a 5-fund if you already split between TBM and TIPS?
SSSS wrote:Which courts? How do you sue a sovereign government for non-payment of sovereign debt?
Argentinian politicians and global debt campaigners have responded with fury to a US court judgment that risks plunging the country back into default.
Elliott Capital Management and Aurelius Capital Management, regarded as "vulture funds" by Buenos Aires, won a ruling in a New York court on Wednesday that could force Argentina to hand over $1.3bn (£816m) in repayments and interest to the tiny minority of bondholders who refused to sign up to a hard-fought writedown of its debts after the country defaulted in 2001.
Judge Thomas Griesa upheld his own ruling of last month backing Elliott Associates, and said: "Argentina owes this and owes it now."
In a strongly worded statement, Griesa said that Argentina should make repayments to the so-called holdouts at the same pace that it is repaying the vast majority of bondholders who did agree to a debt-swap. He also warned that US-based bank BNY Mellon, which handles Argentina's debt payments to US-based bondholders, would be acting "in active concert" with the republic, if it failed to comply with the ruling.
Argentina has hired a private jet for President Cristina Kirchner's trip to Asia and the Middle East later this month due to the risk that creditors might try to seize her official aircraft.
The government chartered the aircraft after its attorneys warned that Tango 01 could suffer the same fate as an Argentine navy training ship that was held for 2 ½ months in Ghana last year. A local judge ordered it to be seized at the behest of NML Capital Ltd., an investment fund controlled by businessman Paul Singer's hedge fund Elliot Management Corp. The company didn't respond to a request for comment.
Rick Ferri wrote:mptfan wrote:Rick Ferri wrote:This is one of those funds that I know Gus Sauter doesn't believe in, ....
Out of curiosity, how do you know that?
Because he told me to my face about 8 years ago when I asked.
Rick Ferri
Rick Ferri wrote:
This is one of those funds that I know Gus Sauter doesn't believe in, but investors want it, so they get it. Vanguard is considering alternative investments as well. They don't believe in them, but investors what them, so Vanguard will provide them.
Rick Ferri
Bustoff wrote:Rick Ferri wrote:
This is one of those funds that I know Gus Sauter doesn't believe in, but investors want it, so they get it. Vanguard is considering alternative investments as well. They don't believe in them, but investors what them, so Vanguard will provide them.
Rick Ferri
Rick - Why doesn't Gus Sauter and Vanguard believe in them ?
Rick Ferri wrote:Are potential investors in this fund expecting higher returns? Hate to disappoint you, but this fund isn't going to yield any more than the Vanguard Total Bond Fund, and may yield less due to higher fees and hedging costs.
This is one of those funds that I know Gus Sauter doesn't believe in, but investors want it, so they get it. Vanguard is considering alternative investments as well. They don't believe in them, but investors what them, so Vanguard will provide them. There is no academic reason to own these funds, but they sure sound good. Not to fault just Vanguard because DFA, iShares, Fidelity and all other large fund companies do the same pandering.
Rick Ferri
Bustoff wrote:Rick Ferri wrote:
This is one of those funds that I know Gus Sauter doesn't believe in, but investors want it, so they get it. Vanguard is considering alternative investments as well. They don't believe in them, but investors what them, so Vanguard will provide them.
Rick Ferri
Rick - Why doesn't Gus Sauter and Vanguard believe in them ?

Rick Ferri wrote:Quote all the academic jargon you wish from years ago when global interest rates were much higher,I don't see this Vanguard news as anything to write home about. The bond funds I already use hold 4,000 securities in aggregate. How much more fixed income diversification do you need? Anyway, I would rather have seen an unhedged, fix country allocation so at at least currency rebalancing would provide some benefit. I just don't see it, but it sure is a popular idea.
Boglehead philosophy is universal; portfolio strategy is personal. To each his own.
Rick Ferri
I figured that having a international bond fund with low costs is a hedge against the dollar.
Vanguard wrote:Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund will seek to track the performance of the Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Float Adjusted RIC Capped Index (USD Hedged). The fund's currency hedging strategy is designed to help mitigate the effects of changes in currency rates on the fund's returns.
Rick Ferri wrote:All you'll get here is less yield due to higher fees than existing diversified Vanguard US bond funds.
Rick Ferri
umfundi wrote:Rick Ferri wrote:All you'll get here is less yield due to higher fees than existing diversified Vanguard US bond funds.
Rick Ferri
Rick,
Is this significant enough to reconsider using LifeStrategy or Target Retirement Funds? I would think not, but what do I know?
Keith
Rick Ferri wrote:I figured that having a international bond fund with low costs is a hedge against the dollar.
Folks, this bond fund is currency hedged. This means currency risk is being taken out of the equation. There will be very little diversification against a fall in the US dollar by using this fund.
Rick Ferri
SSSS wrote:I want a Total World Bond Fund, including inflation-adjusted and high-yield bonds, maybe called What-Part-of-TOTAL-Don't-You-Understand World Bond Fund
Rick Ferri wrote:All you'll get here is less yield due to higher fees than existing diversified Vanguard US bond funds.
Rick Ferri
Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:(On a more serious note, I wonder what it would take to securitize sharked loans. What might their ratings be: low due to poor borrower credit; but high due to vigorous servicing?)
deci02 wrote:Any comments from those who hold international bonds in taxable or are educated on this subject would be most appreciated.
Compounding wrote:Based on Rick Ferri's postings on this thread, I think it might be time to amend this excerpt from the Boglehead's Wiki on Developed Market Bonds:
"Author Rick Ferri posits three tests for including an asset class in a portfolio:
Does an asset class provide exposure to a unique investment risk?
Does the asset class provide a real return (higher than the inflation rate)?
Is the asset class available in a broadly diversified, liquid, low-cost fund?
Ferri judges international bond funds as passing the first two requirements, but failing on the cost issue. Should the cost of available international bond index funds (or ETFs) fall to 0.20% or lower, the asset class would pass Ferri's third requirement and merit consideration for strategic asset allocation in portfolios."
Ironically, the proposed cost of the new Vanguard Foreign Bond Admiral Fund: 0.20%. This Wiki excerpt and his responses on this thread are somewhat contradictory. A change of heart here for Rick? (who I am a big fan of, BTW)
- Brian
Rick Ferri wrote:Are potential investors in this fund expecting higher returns? Hate to disappoint you, but this fund isn't going to yield any more than the Vanguard Total Bond Fund, and may yield less due to higher fees and hedging costs.
Rick Ferri
Rick Ferri wrote:There is no real diversification here, folks. There is only higher cost.
Im agnostic at 0.20%. Take it or leave it. The for me with this fund is not the 0.20% fee, it's currency hedging. I see no point in paying even 0.20% for a international bond fund that overlays a currency hedge (which has unreported hidden hidden costs).
There is no real diversification here, folks. There is only higher cost.
Rick Ferri
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