madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

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madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby madsinger » Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:46 pm

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2013 returns, 2013 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2010 (14 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 60/5/3/32 stock/REIT/PM/bond.
Code: Select all
                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   Jan     YTD     since   since   since   since
                   2013    2013    2010    2008    2003    1999
Hot Hands         7.21%   7.21%   12.54%  -1.76%  11.03%  11.23%
Sheltered Sam     4.92%   4.92%   11.36%   2.43%   9.81%   6.77%
VFINX             5.18%   5.18%   12.23%   2.56%   7.46%   3.20%
                 
s&d               3.75%   3.75%   10.12%   3.54%   9.56%   7.04%
Newsletter G      5.80%   5.80%   10.56%   2.40%   9.51%   8.50%
Newsletter G-IND  5.80%   5.80%   12.52%   2.68%   9.30%   5.18%
3 fund            3.61%   3.61%    9.13%   2.74%   8.58%   5.03%
LS G              3.73%   3.73%    9.80%   1.78%   7.69%   4.25%

Code: Select all
Newsletter CG     5.10%   5.10%   10.30%   2.96%   8.66%   6.86%
coffeehouse       2.86%   2.86%   10.14%   5.18%   8.52%   6.87%
Wellington        3.52%   3.52%   10.03%   4.89%   8.50%   6.86%
STAR              3.03%   3.03%    9.41%   4.22%   7.94%   6.18%
LS MG             2.68%   2.68%    8.98%   2.84%   7.15%   4.69%
                 
Wellesley         1.45%   1.45%   10.34%   7.09%   7.29%   6.85%
Newsletter Inc    3.00%   3.00%   10.02%   4.35%   6.87%   4.98%
LS CG             1.53%   1.53%    7.61%   3.33%   6.23%   4.79%
                 
madsinger         3.60%   3.60%    9.59%   3.61%     

Last edited by madsinger on Fri Feb 01, 2013 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby madsinger » Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:51 pm

US stocks had a big month, up 5% to 7% for the month! International had a big range: Europe 5%, Pacific 3%, EM less than 1%. Bonds down a little. PM down over -3%.

I rebalanced my portfolio right at the beginning of the month and moved my bond allocation up from 31% to 32% (which is less than 31% by the end of the month). Feeling "rich" with the big jump in January...and starting to wonder if I should rebalance again so soon! (Haven't hit my limits, so I'm staying the course).

I hope you all enjoyed a good month, and kept your wits about you among all of the enthusiasm!

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby midareff » Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:35 pm

Thanks for putting in the time and work Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby Norris » Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:45 pm

madsinger wrote:
I hope you all enjoyed a good month, and kept your wits about you among all of the enthusiasm!

-Brad.


I had a good month and kept my wits about me, at least from an investing standpoint 8-)

Thanks, madsinger, for your report!

Norris
"...and we benefited broadly, from our investment accounts to our personal lives. Thank you, Jack Bogle." Quote from Jeremy Duffield on page 362 of "The Man in the Arena".
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby MariaT » Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:45 pm

Thanks again, Brad.

Warm regards,
Maria
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby bogleblitz » Fri Feb 01, 2013 5:40 pm

madsinger wrote:, roughly 60/5/3/32 stock/REIT/PM/bond.


What does PM mean?

How do I generate similar reports for myself? I have vanguard and fidelity accounts and they only give me "your total YTD is 3.3%"
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby madsinger » Fri Feb 01, 2013 6:47 pm

bogleblitz wrote:
madsinger wrote:, roughly 60/5/3/32 stock/REIT/PM/bond.


What does PM mean?

How do I generate similar reports for myself? I have vanguard and fidelity accounts and they only give me "your total YTD is 3.3%"


PM is "precious metals", and more specifically, Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining fund (VGPMX).

What report are you interested in creating? I do this by downloading the YTD returns each month for each fund in these portfolios into an Excel spreadsheet and computing the returns from there.

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby bogleblitz » Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:12 pm

My portfolio is most similar to s&d. I'm interested in creating in excel as well.
Do you have a sample excel file or google docs file to share?
Thanks
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby investor » Sat Feb 02, 2013 2:34 am

Thanks Brad, always appreciate.
Hot Hands is looking good.

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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby johnep » Sat Feb 02, 2013 8:43 am

Thanks. What is AA of Hot Hands?
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby runner9 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 10:29 pm

I track my returns using the XIRR feature in Excel as detailed here: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=107964

My slice and dice had returns per fund of 3 to 7 percent.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby spanky123 » Sun Feb 03, 2013 12:23 am

johnep wrote:Thanks. What is AA of Hot Hands?

The "Hot Hands" method was developed by Dan Wiener -- Founder and Chairman, Adviser Investments. He says, "My “hot hands” thesis is quite simple: Investors who purchase the prior year's best diversified Vanguard equity fund and hold it for a year and follow this strategy year after year will beat the stock market over time."
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby Wagnerjb » Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:44 am

spanky123 wrote:
johnep wrote:Thanks. What is AA of Hot Hands?

The "Hot Hands" method was developed by Dan Wiener -- Founder and Chairman, Adviser Investments. He says, "My “hot hands” thesis is quite simple: Investors who purchase the prior year's best diversified Vanguard equity fund and hold it for a year and follow this strategy year after year will beat the stock market over time."


It is a strategy that costs performance chasers lots of money. Chasing a strategy is no different than chasing a lucky mutual fund manager or a hot stock. In the early 1990's the strategy didn't work well, with the investor underperforming substantially with International Growth in 1994 and Windsor in 1997. But from about 2000 to 2006 the strategy got lucky and produced some nice outperformance, and all the performance chasers piled in. Then the luck ran out. In 2007 the chosen fund (International Explorer) underperformed a more diversified international index by over 10%, and it has underperformed an alternative diversified index in 5 of the past 6 years. Needless to say, the performance chasers have taken their lumps (quietly) and gone on to other pursuits. You see this in Brad's data. The very poor performance since 2008 reflects the recent poor streak. The since 2003 and since 1999 data reflect the influence of the six year hot streak. Had Brad shown more history, the record would look a lot more mediocre.

Another factor that is often overlooked is the additional risk of such a strategy. Instead of investing in broadly diversified funds, you are taking a gamble on a single narrower fund.

Best wishes.
Andy
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby spanky123 » Sun Feb 03, 2013 12:28 pm

Wagnerjb wrote:Another factor that is often overlooked is the additional risk of such a strategy. Instead of investing in broadly diversified funds, you are taking a gamble on a single narrower fund.

Could this be said about sector funds despite spectacular performance of the Vanguard Health-care sector fund with lower volatility than that of the S&P 500? The Vanguard Health-care sector fund seems to be a very good sector bet as more baby boomers requiring more health care as time goes on.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2013)

Postby investor » Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:30 pm

The Hot Hands is momentum investing and has never claimed to be anything other than that. It is for play money not for long term money.

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