"Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

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Paul@
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"Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by Paul@ »

I recently came across this "Stairway to Financial Heaven" article, written back in 2005. The author tries to make a compelling case that, when one considers risk vs. reward, it makes far more sense to have an allocation of 30% equities / 70% bonds than it does to have 70% bonds / 30% equities.

http://www.fa-mag.com/news/article-1155.html

I'm a retiree and can never quite make up my mind what asset allocation I should use. I'm conservative and have been using Age in Bonds, but wonder if that's the best way to go, if I should instead pick a fixed allocation and stick with that. Anyway, this guy seems to make sense -and I wonder where the flaw in his logic is. I've lived through our modern-day stock market fiascos and know full well how long it takes a portfolio to recover from a cataclysm. Is he right that 30% equities makes more sense?
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Call_Me_Op
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by Call_Me_Op »

Certainly, the risk is lower in something like a 30/70 versus a 70/30. One "caution" is that the past 50 years has included a very long and substantial period of strong bond performance - unlikely to repeat for a long time. This tends to make bond-heavy portfolios (especially holding treasuries) look pretty good. So while 30/70 may help you sleep better at night, I would not expect returns comparable to 70/30 over the next 10-20 years.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein
edge
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by edge »

30% equities / 70% bonds than it does to have 70% bonds / 30% equities.

Is this some kind of mental accounting trick? Those don't usually work for me.
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Paul@
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by Paul@ »

edge wrote:
30% equities / 70% bonds than it does to have 70% bonds / 30% equities.

Is this some kind of mental accounting trick? Those don't usually work for me.
The author is not saying that a 30% stocks allocation returns more than a 70% stocks allocation. Rather, he is saying that the extra benefit of a 70% stocks allocation is only marginal, while the extra risk associated with it is not marginally worse, it is significantly worse, than a 30% stocks allocation. And that when the choice is put to people in emotional rather than statistical terms, the majority (including those who have been invested 70% or 80% in stocks), opt for the risk/reward scenario that is an allocation of 30% stocks, 70% bonds.

There's no mental accounting trick involved, unless one considers one's investing frame of mind as accounting.
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hillman
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by hillman »

Paul@ wrote:
edge wrote:
30% equities / 70% bonds than it does to have 70% bonds / 30% equities.
Is this some kind of mental accounting trick? Those don't usually work for me.
The author is not saying that a 30% stocks allocation returns more than a 70% stocks allocation. Rather, he is saying that the extra benefit of a 70% stocks allocation is only marginal, while the extra risk associated with it is not marginally worse, it is significantly worse, than a 30% stocks allocation. And that when the choice is put to people in emotional rather than statistical terms, the majority (including those who have been invested 70% or 80% in stocks), opt for the risk/reward scenario that is an allocation of 30% stocks, 70% bonds.

There's no mental accounting trick involved, unless one considers one's investing frame of mind as accounting.
Carefully reread what Edge quoted. Think the 'accounting trick' comment was a joke zeroing in a typo (not the right word for using the wrong word). :D

Interesting point though, haven't read the article. I wonder what the difference in return is and the difference in volatility.
Call_Me_Op
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by Call_Me_Op »

Paul@ wrote:
edge wrote:
30% equities / 70% bonds than it does to have 70% bonds / 30% equities.

Is this some kind of mental accounting trick? Those don't usually work for me.
The author is not saying that a 30% stocks allocation returns more than a 70% stocks allocation. Rather, he is saying that the extra benefit of a 70% stocks allocation is only marginal, while the extra risk associated with it is not marginally worse, it is significantly worse, than a 30% stocks allocation.
Clarification - he is saying this has been the case over the past 50 years. As I pointed-out above, expecting anything close to past bond returns (over the next 10-20 years) is unrealistic.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein
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Paul@
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by Paul@ »

Whoops! My thanks to both Call_Me_Op and Edge for pointing out the error in the original post.

It should indeed say "30% equities /70% bonds than it does to have 70% EQUITIES / 30% bonds".
Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes you're the bug. | - Mary Chapin Carpenter
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by YDNAL »

Paul@ wrote:I recently came across this "Stairway to Financial Heaven" article, written back in 2005. The author tries to make a compelling case that, when one considers risk vs. reward, it makes far more sense to have an allocation of 30% equities / 70% bonds than it does to have 70% bonds equities / 30% equities bonds.
Here is my take.
Financial Advisor article, Mitch Anthony wrote:If there was a stairway to financial heaven and I offered you the following two climbing scenarios, which would you prefer? In scenario one, you would climb ten stairs in an average year. In a bad year, you would tumble down 18 stairs. In a really good year, you would climb 38 stairs. In scenario two, you would climb eight stairs instead of ten in your average year, but you would only fall down six stairs in a bad year. In a really good year, you would climb 35 stairs. Which scenario most appeals to you?
Now, what is your choice? If you are like the majority of those who I have presented this scenario to, you will choose the scenario with an average of eight stairs in the average year, losing six stairs in a bad year, and gaining 35 stairs in a really good year.
We tend to think that we can easily accept "the good/bad years." Truth be told, when $#!^ hits the fan, the natural human reaction is to run away from the fan*.
  • If to meet our savings goal we allocate 30/70 Equity/Fixed and have a highly aggressive savings plan, then great, and a sound plan.
  • If to meet our goal we rely on 70/30 E/F in hopes to compensate for a different savings plan, then you must live (maybe :) ) with risks you take.
* I know, I know... Bogleheads are special people.
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Dandy
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by Dandy »

no one can tell where the stairway will eventually lead. If you are a conservative investor you should pick an equity allocation that fits your risk tolerance. The lower your equity allocation usually means the lower your volitility and lower growth of your portfolio. Will you be missing out on some gains when the market surges - you bet. Will you lose less when the market plunges - most likely.

So, you need to figure will modest returns on a 30% equity allocation enabled you to fund your retirement for 30 years or so. If your withdrawal rate is 4% or more that might be hard to do - especially with such historically low interest rates on fixed income choices. If you are comfortable with an allocation of 30% to equities it might work not to glide much lower as you age. You could do that with a conservative life strategy fund and use a CD ladder or short term bond fund to get the overall equity allocation to 30%.
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baw703916
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by baw703916 »

I'll just comment on two aspects:
Paul@ wrote:I recently came across this "Stairway to Financial Heaven" article, written back in 2005.
In 2005, things were a lot different. I bought a 5 year CD during that time frame with a 6.6% interest rate. OK, it was a special promotion, but still... Back then you could get a reasonable return on fixed income investments. Now, you are pretty much guaranteed to lose to inflation.
I'm a retiree and can never quite make up my mind what asset allocation I should use.
If one is retired and has enough of a nest egg to meet one's needs, then a 30% allocation to equities may indeed be appropriate, in spite of the low yields on fixed income. I think it would be a big mistake, however, for a 20- or 30-something to have this AA.

Brad
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stratton
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by stratton »

I will point out the following two portfolios have roughly the same expected return because of high fees.

A: 70/30 stocks/bonds with a 2.25% ER.

B: 30/70 stock/bonds with 0.25% ER.

Which one would be better to hold during 2008/9?

Which one is less likely to have an investor bail out in 2008/9?

High fees are really bad for you. 30/70 stocks/bonds is available in one fund via the retirement income fund and is great for the sleep better effect. Save more money to increase your certainty level.

If the 70/30 stock/bond portfolio is low fee and an investor bails out in 2008/9 at the low point they might as well have held 30/70. The sleep better effect is important to staying the course.

Paul
...and then Buffy staked Edward. The end.
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Joe S.
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by Joe S. »

A major problem with this author's data is that he doesn't explain where he gets his data from. Is he using the Ibbotson data from 1926-2005? Is he using some other data set? If he won't tell me what data he is using, I don't trust him. Also, an average 10% return for a 70% stock/30% bond portfolio sounds to high. I suspect he is using a cherry-picked data set. However if he won't say where his data is from, his analysis is worthless.
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Paul@
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by Paul@ »

Joe S. wrote:A major problem with this author's data is that he doesn't explain where he gets his data from. Is he using the Ibbotson data from 1926-2005? Is he using some other data set? If he won't tell me what data he is using, I don't trust him. Also, an average 10% return for a 70% stock/30% bond portfolio sounds to high. I suspect he is using a cherry-picked data set. However if he won't say where his data is from, his analysis is worthless.
Vanguard's Portfolio Allocation Models give a 9% average annual return for a portfolio of 70% stocks/30% bonds, and a 7.3% average annual return for a portfolio of 30% stocks/70% bonds.
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Browser
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Re: "Stairway to Financial Heaven" - 30% equities??

Post by Browser »

Look at Swedroe's "fat tails" portfolio, or the Permanent Portfolio. Same thing. The idea is to reduce volatility, particularly downside volatility, and produce smoother annual growth.
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.
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