RTP, NC Chapter Meeting Sat May 7, 2011

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RTP, NC Chapter Meeting Sat May 7, 2011

Postby Steve Thorpe » Sat Feb 12, 2011 5:07 pm

Hello Research Triangle Park NC Area Bogleheads,

Please mark your calendars for the next local chapter meeting, scheduled for 9:30 AM Saturday May 7, 2011 in Durham - see below for directions. Your homework assignment, if you choose to accept it: read “The Big Short” by Michael Lewis, so we can discuss at the meeting.

I'll post a reminder update as the time draws closer, with a strawman agenda as well as directions and timing. For now just wanted to let folks know the date so as to get it on your calendars.

Could you please let me know if you're planning to attend? That way we can best estimate how many to prepare for.

Just FYI, after each of the previous meetings I posted a short summary... in case these are of interest, please check towards the end of these topics:

February 12, 2011
November 6, 2010
July 31, 2010
April 17, 2010
January 16, 2010
October 10, 2009

Also FYI for those local 'heads not already on the list, I set up a Yahoo "rtpbogleheads" email list for our local chapter. Please consider joining the list to help our chapter communications (see below for joining details). From the group's description:

Welcome to the yahoo group of the Research Triangle Park, North Carolina Area Bogleheads Chapter. The Bogleheads are an investing and personal finance interest group inspired by the example of Jack Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard mutual fund company.

This list is primarily to foster easy communications among our local chapter members, in particular regarding reminders and logistics on upcoming meetings which we hope to hold approximately quarterly. All are encouraged to continue use the national forum (bogleheads.org) for most postings.

Please stick to the spirit of the national chapter's forum policies and etiquette: basically, keep to investing topics and stay away from politics. Further details on posting etiquette can be found here: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=405

Initially this list will be configured to allow through all member postings in an un-moderated fashion, though adjustments may be made later as deemed appropriate by the list manager.

If you're interested to know of other local Boglehead chapters, please see the Google Map maintained by Mel Lindauer at http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/chapters/

Thank you!

Steve Thorpe
RTP Area Bogleheads Chapter Organizer


rtpbogleheads Yahoo Group Addresses are:
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Subscribe:          rtpbogleheads-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Post message:       rtpbogleheads@yahoogroups.com
Unsubscribe:        rtpbogleheads-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
List owner:         rtpbogleheads-owner@yahoogroups.com
Group home page:    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/rtpbogleheads


Please feel free to PM me if you have questions about yahoo group logistics.

Best wishes.
Last edited by Steve Thorpe on Sat Apr 30, 2011 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Steve Thorpe » Sat Apr 30, 2011 6:28 pm

Hello RTP Bogleheads,

The next RTP Area meeting will be held at 9:30 AM Saturday May 7 in Durham, in the community room of the condo complex where I live. Several fun topics on this meeting's agenda! Including a pre-meeting assigment - see agenda item 2. below (Book Review).

Community room at the Building 54 Entrance
500 N. Duke St.
Durham, NC 27701

Directions from the corner of Main St. and Duke St. (near Brightleaf Square): Travel north on N. Duke St. from the corner of Main St. and Duke St. 2-3 short blocks later, you'll see Corporation St. and 500 N. Duke Street on your right, and the Durham School of the Arts on your left. Take a right onto Corporation St., and an immediate left into the parking lot for the Warehouse Condos. Park in any available spot that is NOT clearly marked with a BW symbol (you'll need to proceed to parking spaces in front of the next main building), then walk back to the entrance labeled "54" (the second awning from the left of the 500 N. Duke St. Building). The community room is just to the right of that entrance. Click here for a Google Map

Bagels will be provided



Please RSVP to me if you're planning to join us.


Proposed Agenda:

Meeting starts promptly at 9:30 AM

1. Welcome / Introductions / Agenda Bash (5-10 minutes)



2. Book Review (~10-15 minutes)

Everyone's assignment from the last meeting, should you choose to accept it, is to read "The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine" by Michael Lewis, prior to May 7. We can share our opinions on the book, especially with respect to its implications on personal investing.



3. Bogleheads 9 "Mini-Interview" with Jack Bogle (~5-10 minutes)

One highlight of the Bogleheads 9 DVDs is a "mini interview" with Jack Bogle. I'll bring along the DVDs, and if there is interest we can check out then discuss this short but sweet interview - its only 3.5 minutes long but Jack packs in many words of wisdom!


4. Open Q&A

Bring your question(s) for fellow Bogleheads and let's share our ideas!



5. Planning for our next meeting (~5 minutes)

What?:
- Shall we pick another book to review, and if so which one?
- Any suggested topics?
- Any suggested special guests?

When?: 9:30 AM Saturday August 13 or 27?
Or should we spread it out a little more?

Where?




6. Meeting adjourns at approximately 11:00 AM
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Postby Steve Thorpe » Thu May 05, 2011 10:02 pm

Hello RTP Bogleheads,

Just a reminder of this Saturday's meeting at 9:30 AM -> see above for directions. Hope to see you there!
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Postby Redwing » Sat May 07, 2011 6:48 pm

Hello Steve:

Thanks for hosting this quarter's event. I enjoyed the conversation and the chance to meet with the other attendees and look forward to the next meeting.

My suggested reading for the next meeting is: The next 100 years: A forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman.

Spent the afternoon pouring over the paper that was discussed and am thinking about its implications. It convinced me that my overall equity allocation is appropriate. However, I'm reevaluating my AA with respect to International Developed, Emerging International and US Equity Small Cap & Value.
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Postby Steve Thorpe » Sun May 08, 2011 10:28 pm

Hi Redwing,

It was great to meet you! And many thanks for the book suggestion.

Redwing wrote:Hello Steve:
I'm reevaluating my AA with respect to International Developed, Emerging International and US Equity Small Cap & Value.


You may wish to read a few of the classic Boglehead books as you carefully consider these important AA decisions. A few of my favorites are:

The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need
by Larry E. Swedroe

All About Index Funds: The Easy Way To Get Started
by Richard A. Ferri

The Investor’s Manifesto: Preparing for Prosperity, Armageddon, and Everything in Between
by William J. Bernstein

All About Asset Allocation: The Easy Way to Get Started
by Richard A. Ferri

Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment
by David F. Swensen

Live It Up Without Outliving Your Money!: Getting The Most From Your Investments in Retirement
by Paul Merriman

Best wishes,

Steve
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Postby Steve Thorpe » Sun May 08, 2011 11:29 pm

Hello Bogleheads,

Yesterday morning five of us met for the 7th RTP Bogleheads local chapter meeting. As usual, it was a stimulating discussion covering many investment-related topics, including:

Michael Lewis’ “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine”. This fascinating read chronicles many shenanigans of the recent financial meltdown: high-risk sub-prime mortgages, packaged into bonds, packaged into CDOs and synthetic derivative instruments, artificially inflated from junk- to AAA-rated status and blessed by the ratings agencies, insurance with credit default swaps – these topics are difficult and can make your head hurt!

Several in the group agreed that not having “skin in the game” allowed way too much risk to be taken. If the risks were borne by the decision-makers, it would have naturally caused less risky decisions to be made. There was some debate in the group as to whether increased regulation would help or hurt.

Was there fraud in the bond ratings agencies? Or simply incompetence?

One member described a 529 college-savings fund that was invested in a vehicle with a 1 year time frame from the target. It declined – get this – by 25%(!) The question is, why? It turns out the “low risk” part of the fund was invested in credit default swaps! :shock:

We discussed various commodities: oil, gas, coal, precious metals, rare elements, etc. It seems the world could get uglier over time, given potential impending scarcity of these resources.

We watched a 3.5 minute interview with Jack Bogle, recorded during last October’s Bogleheads 9 reunion. In those short minutes, Jack packed in most of the key Boglehead principals – saving diligently, keeping costs low, don’t peek too often, and perhaps the most fun one – “Don’t do something, just stand there!”. Jack was certainly an inspiration to everyone at our RTP Bogleheads meeting.

Ed Tower, Duke University professor of Economics, shared the latest draft of his paper “Tobin’s q versus CAPE versus CAPER: Predicting Stock Market Returns Using Fundamentals and Momentum”. He presented two models - one that incorporates momentum predicts real wealth falling in the next few years, and one without momentum predicts real wealth rising but at a very slow rate. Ed, thanks very much for sharing your paper with the group!

Other topics included:
    Malkiel’s latest Random Walk book
    Behavioral economics research
    Tulip-mania and other historical bubbles
    Different ways of estimating risk
    REITS
    Cash – is it no longer “king”?
    Cash vs. short term bonds
    Benjamin Graham’s Intelligent Investor
    Paul Krugman’s Blog
    Bill Bernstein’s Investor’s Manifesto and 4 Pillars
    etc.

We decided to hold our next meeting in early September. Since the first Saturday in September is over Labor Day weekend, I propose we hold it on Saturday September 10th. For one of the topics, Redwing has suggested we can discuss George Friedman's book "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century" which sounds fun to me! Please check this topic for further information on the next meeting.

Thank you my RTP Boglehead friends – you’re the best!
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Postby woof755 » Thu May 12, 2011 8:10 pm

Steve, thanks for hosting!

Here's a link to the podcast for the Magnetar story I mentioned. It's riveting.

http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/405/inside-job

...and the text version, as printed online:

http://www.propublica.org/article/all-the-magnetar-trade-how-one-hedge-fund-helped-keep-the-housing-bubble
"By singing in harmony from the same page of the same investing hymnal, the Diehards drown out market noise." | | --Jason Zweig, quoted in The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing
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Postby Steve Thorpe » Fri May 13, 2011 10:51 am

Hi Aaron,

Thanks for the Magnetar story links - very interesting! It totally relates to our discussion at the RTP Bogleheads meeting.... I note the article refers to "The Big Short" book we discussed.

Best wishes.
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Postby Munir » Fri May 13, 2011 11:57 am

It took me a while to realize that the heading was RTP and RIP :D
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Postby woof755 » Fri May 13, 2011 12:17 pm

Ha! This is nisiprious-worthy! http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=69811

nah, we're live and kickin' thanks to Steve (and Ed Tower)!
"By singing in harmony from the same page of the same investing hymnal, the Diehards drown out market noise." | | --Jason Zweig, quoted in The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing
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