RTP, NC Chapter Meeting 9:30 AM Sat Feb 12, 2011

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RTP, NC Chapter Meeting 9:30 AM Sat Feb 12, 2011

Postby Steve Thorpe » Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:04 pm

Hello Research Triangle Park NC Area Bogleheads,

Please mark your calendars for the next local chapter meeting, scheduled for 9:30 AM Saturday February 12, 2011. Your homework assignment, if you choose to accept it: read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets" so we can discuss at the next meeting.

I'll post a reminder update as the time draws closer, with a strawman agenda as well as directions. For now just wanted to let folks know the date so as to get it on your calendars.

Could you please let me know if you're planning to attend? That way we can best estimate how many to prepare for.

Just FYI, after each of the previous meetings I posted a short summary... in case these are of interest, please check towards the end of these threads:
October 10, 2009
January 16, 2010
April 17, 2010
July 31, 2010
November 6, 2010


Also FYI for those local 'heads not already on the list, I set up a Yahoo "rtpbogleheads" email list for our local chapter. Please consider joining the list to help our chapter communications (see below for joining details). From the group's description:

Welcome to the yahoo group of the Research Triangle Park, North Carolina Area Bogleheads Chapter. The Bogleheads are an investing and personal finance interest group inspired by the example of Jack Bogle, the founder of the Vanguard mutual fund company.

This list is primarily to foster easy communications among our local chapter members, in particular regarding reminders and logistics on upcoming meetings which we hope to hold approximately quarterly. All are encouraged to continue use the national forum (bogleheads.org) for most postings.

Please stick to the spirit of the national chapter's forum policies and etiquette: basically, keep to investing topics and stay away from politics. Further details on posting etiquette can be found here: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=405

Initially this list will be configured to allow through all member postings in an un-moderated fashion, though adjustments may be made later as deemed appropriate by the list manager.

If you're interested to know of other local Boglehead chapters, please see the Google Map maintained by Mel Lindauer at http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/chapters/

Thank you!

Steve Thorpe
RTP Area Bogleheads Chapter Organizer


rtpbogleheads Yahoo Group Addresses are:
Code: Select all
Subscribe:          rtpbogleheads-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Post message:       rtpbogleheads@yahoogroups.com
Unsubscribe:        rtpbogleheads-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
List owner:         rtpbogleheads-owner@yahoogroups.com
Group home page:    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/rtpbogleheads


Please feel free to PM me if you have questions about yahoo group logistics.

Best wishes.
Steve Thorpe
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Postby Steve Thorpe » Sat Jan 22, 2011 1:39 pm

Hello RTP Bogleheads,

Reminder on the upcoming 6th RTP, NC Bogleheads meeting scheduled for 9:30 AM Saturday February 12, 2011. Don't forget your reading assignment (see below), and as always could you please RSVP to me if you plan to attend?

Location:
von der Heyden Pavilion, attached to Perkins Library
Duke University
Durham, North Carolina
(Special thanks to Ed Tower for help with the location!)

Per Ed, we can get coffee and pastries there and it is a really a nice environment. You can park on Flowers Drive behind the Economics Department (Social Sciences Building). For a Google Map please click here. On the map, you should be able to see the William R. Perkins library to the left of the Social Science building, and with the "Satellite" option on you can see a bunch of parking spaces near the Social Science building.


Proposed Agenda:
Meeting starts promptly at 9:30 AM

1. Welcome / Introductions / Agenda Bash

2. Book Review
Everyone's assignment from the last meeting, should you choose to accept it, is to read best-selling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets".

3. Other topics? (please feel free to make suggestions to the group!)

4. Open Q&A
Bring your question(s) for fellow Bogleheads and let's share our ideas!

5. Group Photo
Boglehead "LadyGeek" (a.k.a. Sue) has been posting pictures on the Bogleheads Local Chapters page. Let's take one of our own so we can replace the boring Yahoo Groups icon for our group!

6. Planning for our next meeting
What?:
- Shall we pick another book to review, and if so which one?
- Any suggested topics?
- Any suggested special guests?
When?: 9:30 AM Saturday May 14?
Or should we spread it out a little more?
Where?

7. Meeting adjourns at approximately 11:00 AM


Thanks everyone - see you on the 12th!
Steve Thorpe
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Postby Steve Thorpe » Thu Feb 10, 2011 10:16 pm

Just sending a reminder to RTP 'heads - see you Saturday at 9:30!

Steve
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Postby Steve Thorpe » Sat Feb 12, 2011 5:11 pm

[ edited a couple times to fix tiny typos - Steve ]

Hello Bogleheads,

We had a great time this morning at our 6th RTP Bogleheads local chapter meeting! Stacy, Ed, Suman, Mike, Tom and I had a wide-ranging conversation over bagels in the stunningly beautiful von der Heyden Pavilion at Duke University. We also got a picture of the gang… if you’re curious you can visit this link.

Here are some of the many topics we discussed:

My favorite takeaway was a memorable phrase courtesy of Suman that describes a key reason to hold bonds: “Shock Absorber”. Two short yet immensely important words!!

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled By Randomness” was one of our agenda items. Some themes of the book are “too many millionaires next door”, falsely assuming cause and effect, ignoring the failure cases and instead focusing only on the winners, not including alternate (possible but not realized) histories when evaluating success vs. failure, “monkeys on typewriters” – that is to say, there’s a lot of good luck that’s misattributed to skill. This book is quite an interesting read and I recommend it.

Ed is developing a paper titled “Predicting the Returns of Vanguard Funds Using the Gordon Formula”, and he kindly shared a copy of the latest draft with the group, educating us all on the Gordon Formula, dividend growth rates, past and expected performance of various Vanguard funds, historical and present P/E ratios, etc. Thanks Ed for graciously sharing so much information with the group! We look forward to seeing the published paper after your upcoming finishing touches.

“Don’t do anything to others that you wouldn’t have done to you” was mentioned as an important takeaway from the Talmud. A very useful (and Boglehead-ish!) life lesson.

The “20-20 wine rule” . Did you ever hear of that one? With white wine, take it out of the ‘fridge 20 minutes before you drink it. With red wine (esp. on a warm day), put it into the ‘fridge 20 minutes before you drink it. What a great rule! It got me thinking – perhaps we should schedule our next meeting on a warm afternoon so we can do a formal scientific evaluation of the rule! :lol:

Luck vs. skill and following the herd were recurrent topics of conversation. Luck is at work more than many realize! At least one of us was fortunate to have moved from 100% to 0% equities in March 2000! Luck? Skill? I’ll leave it to the reader to decide!

Some of the many books sprinkled throughout our conversation include:
“A Random Walk Down Wall Street” (updated version) by Burton G. Malkiel
“The Bogleheads Guide to Retirement Planning”, by Taylor Larimore, Mel Lindauer, Richard Ferri, and Laura Dogu
“The Big Short”, by Michael Lewis
“Liar’s Poker”, by Michael Lewis
“Outliers”, by Malcolm Gladwell
“What the Dog Saw”, by Malcolm Gladwell
“Wall Street Revalued: Imperfect Markets and Inept Central Bankers” by Andrew Smithers
“Irrational Exuberance”, by Robert Shiller
“The Only Guide to a Winning Bond Strategy You'll Ever Need”, by Larry Swedroe and Joseph Hempen
“The Bond Book”, by Annette Thau
“Explore TIPS”, by The Finance Buff
"Don't Count on It!: Reflections on Investment Illusions, Capitalism, "Mutual" Funds, Indexing, Entrepreneurship, Idealism, and Heroes", by Jack Bogle

Decisions on our next meeting were as follows:
- will be held on Saturday May, 2011 at a time and location TBD.
- one of the topics will be a book review of “The Big Short”, by Michael Lewis
- another topic may be a short excerpt from the BH9 DVDs
- other topics TBD
Click here for that meeting's topic.

Thank you my RTP Boglehead friends – you’re the best!
Last edited by Steve Thorpe on Sat Feb 12, 2011 7:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Mel Lindauer » Sat Feb 12, 2011 7:22 pm

Hi Steve:

Congratulations to you and your group for another successful meeting. Thanks for sharing the good news with us.

Great photo of you and the group. I did recognize one of the faces in the picture - my friend, Professor Ed Tower of Duke University's Economics Dept. Your group is, indeed, fortunate to have Ed as one of your members. He's a fountain of knowledge and he's done lots of relevant studies for investors that he's always willing to share.

Continued success to you and your group.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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Postby Steve Thorpe » Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:15 am

Thanks Mel.

I really enjoy our quarterly chapter meetings - it is fun to talk with like-minded investors, and you couldn't ask for kinder people than Bogleheads - Ed Tower and all the rest!

Also have ordered a copy of the BH9 DVDs so will be able to enjoy some of that meeting from a distance. Wish I could have been there in person.

Best wishes.
Steve Thorpe
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Postby Mel Lindauer » Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:42 am

Steve Thorpe wrote:Thanks Mel.

I really enjoy our quarterly chapter meetings - it is fun to talk with like-minded investors, and you couldn't ask for kinder people than Bogleheads - Ed Tower and all the rest!

Also have ordered a copy of the BH9 DVDs so will be able to enjoy some of that meeting from a distance. Wish I could have been there in person.

Best wishes.


Perhaps you'll be able to make it this year or next? Meeting Jack Bogle and the others is an experience you'll never forget.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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