POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Non-investing personal finance issues including insurance, credit, real estate, taxes, employment and legal issues such as trusts and wills.

My home if owned between 2007 & 2014 is now estimated to be worth less or more than in 2007

20% less or lower
77
20%
10% less or lower
58
15%
5% less or lower
13
3%
About the same
49
13%
5% more or higher
23
6%
10% more or higher
37
9%
20% more or higher
67
17%
I don't know or I don't care
27
7%
I didn't own a home at any time between 2007 and 2014
27
7%
I wanted to vote and I am glad you put a catch-all option here for me to choose
14
4%
 
Total votes: 392

Topic Author
livesoft
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POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by livesoft »

There appears to be strong evidence that home prices have not recovered in all areas of the country. So a poll to help livesoft understand this. Sorry if there is not an option for you to answer. Thanks for participation!

My home, if I owned one at any time between 2007 and 2014, is now estimated to be worth less or more than the estimated value in 2007?

Note that this poll does not want to know if your home is now worth more or less than the estimated value in 2006 or earlier. So you could be below the 2007 estimated value, but still have equity and own a home worth more than you paid for it. Also note that you do NOT have to own that home now or then. Someone else could have owned it then (you bought it since) or someone else could own it now (you sold it) or both of these conditions.

If you have owned multiple homes, then create a new login name for every home and answer for each home. (Just kidding, do what you want with the poll then.)

And despite the use of first person in the question, we are not talking about livesoft's home. This is about YOUR home.

Also neglect any effects of inflation/deflation, so you don't have to account for that unless you really really want to.
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sans souliers
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by sans souliers »

My next door neighbor sold his condo in 2007 for a sweet price - even in the midst of that bubble, we knew the sale price was sort of a gift.
Prices are more realistic now, I think.
Last edited by sans souliers on Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sometimes pessimism leaves me pretty well prepared for when things don't go my way, and pleasantly surprised when they do.
Topic Author
livesoft
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by livesoft »

Up until recently, the home values in our neighborhood have trailed slightly behind inflation for the past 15 to 18 years. There was no big bubble in prices and thus no follow-on drop either. Then things just went nuts in the past 6 months. Not surprisingly, many folks are prepping their home for sale and cashing in while they can. Perhaps, the bubble has finally arrived here?
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Kosmo
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Kosmo »

I voted based on a house that used to be my primary residence (purchased in 2006) and is now a rental property (converted in 2013). It's worth about 20% less now than in 2007. Can't really say about my current primary residence.
jebmke
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by jebmke »

I know mine is less but I have no idea how much less.
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
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fishnskiguy
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by fishnskiguy »

We bought pre-construction in March 2007 and moved in in January 2008. I have kept meticulous records of all improvements from landscaping to window treatments.

Three years ago my wife developed a sever allergy to grasses, and here we are living with the 9th, 10th and 18th fairways in our back yard. Last winter she took two hard falls on ice and whacked her head both times. Falling on ice is no fun when you are 35 but it's much worse when you are 68. Although I would be perfectly happy to spend the rest of my days here in Colorado, after much discussion we have decided to relocate to Sedona, AZ.

After talking to several realtors and nosing around the town hall looking at home sales prices, we put our home on the market last week for 77.9% of what we have in the place. In two days we hade four offers and wound up going under contract at a very slight premium to our asking price.

I'm not losing any sleep over the sales price. Before coming to Colorado we built on waterfront property on Bainbridge Island, Washington. Had a drop dead gorgeous view of all of Seattle. When we built, nobody could spell Microsoft. When we sold, Windows 98 and Microsoft Office ruled. We sold for 250% of what we paid for the place.

Easy come, easy go

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Workinghard
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Workinghard »

livesoft wrote:Up until recently, the home values in our neighborhood have trailed slightly behind inflation for the past 15 to 18 years. There was no big bubble in prices and thus no follow-on drop either. Then things just went nuts in the past 6 months. Not surprisingly, many folks are prepping their home for sale and cashing in while they can. Perhaps, the bubble has finally arrived here?
We're experiencing the same in FL. Homes have been flat for so long, but ours (according to zillow), has gone up 46k this year! We're also planning on cashing in-- just haven't figured out when. Kinda aiming towards putting it on the market in Jan.
Topic Author
livesoft
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by livesoft »

I wouldn't believe ANYTHING on zillow. It said our home sold about 3 months ago. I have no idea who our new roommates are because I haven't seen them yet.
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peppers
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by peppers »

My best guesstimate is 20% less.
The kids can slug it out with the agents and the buyer when the time comes. :)
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stan1
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by stan1 »

In my immediate neighborhood of 21 houses 5 sold between Oct, 2013 and May, 2014 for prices above what they would have sold for in 2005 (which was the plateau here). The owners had been waiting to sell for some time (move closer to kids private schools, larger house/lot).
Warning: I am about 80% satisficer (accepting of good enough) and 20% maximizer
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villars
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by villars »

We are putting our rental property on the market . This was our primary home from 2006 to 2010 . Our list price is 15% below what we paid in 2006, and 18% below what it appraised at in 2007.

So , no, markets have not recovered everywhere. I gave up on waiting.
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Cosmo
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Cosmo »

livesoft wrote:Not surprisingly, many folks are prepping their home for sale and cashing in while they can. Perhaps, the bubble has finally arrived here?
I don't understand what this means. How do "many folks" cash in besides maybe retiring or downsizing? I am assuming most of these people need to buy something else -at higher prices unless they are looking for value (read undesirable or dangerous area)? Where do they live once they cash in?

Cosmo
Atilla
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Atilla »

The city keeps dropping our assessed value. Was $180K in 2006-now dropped to $158K recently. Living in the hood has it's advantages and disadvantages. No shootings recently though, so that's a plus. :beer
Topic Author
livesoft
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by livesoft »

Cosmo wrote:
livesoft wrote:Not surprisingly, many folks are prepping their home for sale and cashing in while they can. Perhaps, the bubble has finally arrived here?
I don't understand what this means. How do "many folks" cash in besides maybe retiring or downsizing? I am assuming most of these people need to buy something else -at higher prices unless they are looking for value (read undesirable or dangerous area)? Where do they live once they cash in?

Cosmo
I thought someone would write this. The Morgan Stanley guy is upgrading to house that is 3 times the price in a neighborhood a few miles away. I think the others are retiring or downsizing. Most folks in this neighborhood have been in their homes 20 years or so. The few newcomers are not moving.

But you tell me, what's going on around you?
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Ged
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Ged »

One of the things in I've noticed in my neighborhood over the past decade or so has been a general improvement of the appearance of the homes. New siding, windows, landscaping etc. There has also been very little turnover.

It seems like people are remodeling more than upgrading.
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Aptenodytes
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Aptenodytes »

I'm about 20% below 2007. But 2007 was about double from 10 years prior, so I'm fine with it. This is NY Metro area. What I see in the neighborhood is upgrades and teardowns. But that's driven by the short-term trends, not the long-term. The 1-year trend in home prices is up 15%.
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Kalo
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Kalo »

I voted 20% less or lower. At the height of the bubble it was worth around 140ish or at least high 130's. Now worth 106 conservatively. I'm not looking at actual records of what it was worth in '07 but I'm sure I'm close enough.

I bought my town home in 1996 for 71.5K. Two years prior to that I could have got it for about 65K or less.

I live in a suburb of the Twin Cities.

We now have a greater % of renters than ever in my association. Also, I read an article that said town homes had been over-built in this area and were no longer being started for the time being. Part of the reason for this is that stand-alone homes are now cheap enough that people buy them as starter homes instead of town homes.

I'm not worried. But I do have a much more realistic view of what to expect for appreciation than I did before the 2008 crash. I still feel very lucky because I have neighbors who bought in at the peak and are now underwater, and that's sad. Hopefully they will appreciate their way out of it, but hopefully not back into another bubble.

Kalo
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Ketawa
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Ketawa »

The condo across the hall was sold in 2007 and is on the market right now. My ballpark estimate is that it will sell for 15% lower than the 2007 price, so that is probably close to mine. Mine wasn't sold in 2007, but it was in 2010. It was 3% below the 2010 price when I bought it in 2013.

Prices in my building were flat from 1984 to 1999. They more than tripled before the bubble burst. I'm in a neighborhood that has gone through gentrification since the turn of the century.
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Rob5TCP
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Rob5TCP »

The place I bought for my Mother (in central Florida) in 2007 went down to as much as 60% below what I paid (if you could find a buyer)
It's still down over 30%-40% (but the area is pretty inexpensive - so in $ terms it's not terrible).
Rodc
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Rodc »

I voted don't know and don't care.

But I do care a little, and that was not an option. I don't expect to sell for 8 years or so, though sometimes things come up.

I have some idea of what the house is worth, but I have not tried to carefully estimate based on comps, talking to real estate agents and such.

My town is back to being rather a hot market and prices have been rising. I looked back at a sheet where from time to time I list assets to calculate net-worth. If I had to guess I would think the house value is up 10% +/- 10%. (0% to 20%).

Until it goes on the market I won't know.
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.
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steadyeddy
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by steadyeddy »

Zillow says our house was worth 19% more in July 2007 than July 2014. It also says it's worth 25% more today than the at the market bottom.

The house recently sold for significantly less than Zillow's market bottom estimate, so I guess the moral of the story is that Zillow's numbers are unreliable.
davebarnes
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A lot more

Post by davebarnes »

2007 - 900 sqft house built in 1915. Not in good shape.
2010 - House/land sold for $185K to a developer
2011 - Each duplex side sold for $480K.
2014 - Each duplex side would sell for $600+K based on many comps in the neighborhood.

In summary:
2007 - $92K
2014 - $600K
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Grasshopper
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Grasshopper »

The home we had in Phoenix metro doubled in price 1998-2006,we retired and sold it. Bought at the top of the market in 2006 on rural land, but spent one third the price that we sold our Phoenix home for. Now 8 years later the value of our rural property is down 30-50%, but overall we are still ahead a few hundred thousand dollars from 1998-2014. :beer
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mlebuf
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by mlebuf »

We bought our current home in late November of 1995. It appreciated nicely but not spectacularly for about 10 years. Then, when the real estate bubble came into being, the market price jumped 50 percent in just one year. I knew that was tale told by an idiot and would not last. When the bubble burst, the market value dropped by almost 50 percent to what it was at the peak. Today it's worth about 20 percent less than it was at the peak of the bubble.

We have always viewed our home as a lifestyle choice rather than as an investment. It will likely be the last house we own.
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Cosmo
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Cosmo »

livesoft wrote:
Cosmo wrote:
livesoft wrote:Not surprisingly, many folks are prepping their home for sale and cashing in while they can. Perhaps, the bubble has finally arrived here?
I don't understand what this means. How do "many folks" cash in besides maybe retiring or downsizing? I am assuming most of these people need to buy something else -at higher prices unless they are looking for value (read undesirable or dangerous area)? Where do they live once they cash in?

Cosmo
I thought someone would write this. The Morgan Stanley guy is upgrading to house that is 3 times the price in a neighborhood a few miles away. I think the others are retiring or downsizing. Most folks in this neighborhood have been in their homes 20 years or so. The few newcomers are not moving.

But you tell me, what's going on around you?
The Morgan Stanley guy is losing out. He should have upgraded to that 3X bigger home back in 2008 or 2009. Of course, his job was probably at risk then so it wasn't possible. Here in The Woodlands, the only people who are moving are folks transferring to other places but there is an empty nester in our neighborhood who is selling and downsizing. It's a pretty stupid market up here. Rumor is someone put a contract on a house in our neighborhood before they even looked at it -in fear that it wouldn't be available by the time they physically viewed it. Definite sellers market in the Houston area but the problem is even if I wanted to sell, what/where do I buy?

Cosmo
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Svensk Anga
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Svensk Anga »

Zillow says my house is now worth 24% less than the 2007 peak. The poll options do not go far enough. The current value is up 3.6% per year from when it was new in 2001, despite the roller coaster ride in the interim. Inflation has been 2.3% over that period, so we are seeing some real gain.

This matters only for its future reverse mortgage potential.
Alan S.
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Alan S. »

livesoft wrote:I wouldn't believe ANYTHING on zillow. It said our home sold about 3 months ago. I have no idea who our new roommates are because I haven't seen them yet.
I agree. Zillow is prone to retroactive revisions and huge swings in comparative values of houses in the same neighborhood when nothing has changed. They might be OK in cookie cutter tract neighborhoods that all have about the same updates over the years. Otherwise, take the Zillow estimates with a huge grain of salt.
letsgobobby
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by letsgobobby »

Built in 06 and sold in 07 for $825k at the very top of the market. Those owners stopped paying within 2 years and had tax liens, HOA liens, etc by the time we bought the short sale for $495k in 2011, probably within a month of the bottom of the market. Don't know current best valuation; Zillow says $720k which seems outrageous; I guess $600k-$650k. So we're still more than 20% below the peak. I don't count on any of that equity. If/when we sell and realize it, I'll add it to our net worth statement.
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CMartel2
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by CMartel2 »

Many in my area are clearly still clinging to the past. Prices are high, and homes have been sitting on the market for years. There is a home we saw the other day that had been on the market for 840 days. People refuse to drop prices.

I guess if you're not in a hurry to sell...
Topic Author
livesoft
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by livesoft »

Svensk Anga wrote:Zillow says my house is now worth 24% less than the 2007 peak. The poll options do not go far enough.
Just select the "20% less or lower" option then, since 24% less is lower than 20% less. Thanks!


This poll has turned out completely differently than what I expected. It confirms that all real estate is local and my location is quite a bit different from most everyone else's.
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kenyan
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by kenyan »

Between 10-15% less. I've got a good data point on 2007 (previous owners purchased it then), but have to estimate its current value. Thankfully, we did not purchase this house until 2013.
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madbrain
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by madbrain »

My previous townhome in Santa Clara is still about 15% below the peak in 2006-2007 . I did not vote because I no longer own it.
john94549
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by john94549 »

Craziness in the Bay Area, of course. Might I guess all those who voted "+20%" live here?
S&L1940
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by S&L1940 »

voted don't know but really do know - kind of, just do not care
gonna be the kids' problem but mainly because the ocean might be at the door step by then...

live south Florida, bought in '04 as the costs were going up but still way below the peak
possibly down as much as 20% but my outstanding loan balance is about 20% of estimated current value so we are doing just fine
Don't it always seem to go * That you don't know what you've got * Till it's gone
slick_dealer_05
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by slick_dealer_05 »

Up ~ 100% in Houston, TX
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6miths
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by 6miths »

I put up by over 20%. The house price index for my area was 105 in 2007 and is now 154 for a gain of 46%. No sub-prime crisis in Canada but there are many that think we are currently in a bubble, especially in Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary. Time will tell but at some point house prices will surely fall here.
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sscritic
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by sscritic »

I didn't read carefully before I answered the first time. My bad. My house was built in 2002 and I bought it in 2012. Using Zillow's ridiculous numbers, the value is up 14% from July, 2007 to today.
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MossySF
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by MossySF »

The previous owner on my condo bought for 480K in 2006. In 2007, peak transaction for the building was 525K. It foreclosed and I bought it for 321K in 2009. There was pretty much zero change in value until 2013 and a hot market here has pushed it back up to about 450K.

If we use the peak 2007 bubble value, my condo is still 15% below that number. Luckily, I don't have any involvement in that price.
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whaleknives
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by whaleknives »

Down 8% from 2007 based on assessments (± "Fair Market Value" - no duress, never any duress, uh-uh, no sirree Bob). Our value actually peaked in 2008.
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Ron Ronnerson
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Ron Ronnerson »

john94549 wrote:Craziness in the Bay Area, of course. Might I guess all those who voted "+20%" live here?
It's indeed insane here. I voted for the last option (just felt like voting) as the choices don't apply. My house didn't exist in 2007. It was built in 2010. It's up 45% since then. Crazy Bay Area. While it's nice and all to have increased equity on paper, we plan to live in our home for a long while so the increase doesn't directly affect our lives.
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sdsailing
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by sdsailing »

Cosmo wrote:
livesoft wrote:Not surprisingly, many folks are prepping their home for sale and cashing in while they can. Perhaps, the bubble has finally arrived here?
I don't understand what this means. How do "many folks" cash in besides maybe retiring or downsizing? I am assuming most of these people need to buy something else -at higher prices unless they are looking for value (read undesirable or dangerous area)? Where do they live once they cash in?

Cosmo
1. Arizona 2. Oregon.

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rustymutt
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by rustymutt »

livesoft wrote:I wouldn't believe ANYTHING on zillow. It said our home sold about 3 months ago. I have no idea who our new roommates are because I haven't seen them yet.
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Toons
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by Toons »

No Change.
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HardKnocker
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by HardKnocker »

Home is worth 40+% less than before crash but still 40% more than when I bought it.
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dolphinsaremammals
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by dolphinsaremammals »

I bought about ten years ago. According to our town assessments, it peaked a few years later at 230% the purchase price and is now at 150% of the purchase price. It is only going to go down, since it's waterfront. My only concern is that if I ever do want to sell it, I might not be able to; depends on how high the water is. I don't have plans to sell it before I croak.

Since people are talking about zillow, I looked up my house. They have it at 125% of the assessed value. I know zillow is wrong, since I can compare mine to nearby houses that have sold recently.
acegolfer
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by acegolfer »

Everybody keeps saying Zillow is awful.

If Zillow is really bad, why not suggest a different website so that one can estimate the value? If there's no other website, then can you propose a method to estimate the values in 2007 and 2014?

Since I don't know what else to do, I used Zillow.
carolinaman
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Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by carolinaman »

Zillow shows current value as $186k which apparently is based upon flawed county revaluation done 2 years ago that is being redone currently. It does not reflect the extensive remodeling we have done in past 5 years at cost of around $50k, nor does it includes our decks and storage building. In 2005/2006 timeframe a realtor estimated sale price of our home between $250k and $260k. My guess is that it would sell for somewhere between $200k and $225k today. My SIL sold his deceased father's house last year for $218k that was nearby. It was a nice brick 2 story with 4BRs and 1.7 acre corner lot in a very nice older subdivision. New homes being built in our neighborhood with similar amenities would sale for $350k to $450k with less than .5 acre lots. It seems that older homes, 35 to 40 years old, get devalued a lot even though they are well built, in good condition and are in good neighborhoods.

The neighborhood adjacent to me was built around 2000 and the home prices there seem to be less than what they were 5 years ago although I do not keep up with real estate prices.
travellight
Posts: 2892
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 5:52 pm
Location: San Diego

Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by travellight »

Zillow does not know condition of the house or remodel work. It depends largely on numerical data like sq footage.
364
FRANK2009
Posts: 516
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2007 5:16 pm

Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by FRANK2009 »

My friend, a real estate agent says 20% less. He said the many foreclosures and short sales in the neighborhood drag home prices down. Not much of a recovery around here.
buckstar
Posts: 231
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2011 9:38 am

Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

Post by buckstar »

slick_dealer_05 wrote:Up ~ 100% in Houston, TX
This is crazy! Up 100% in one location and down more than 20% in others? Either there is a bubble in the Houston real estate market, or this time something is different?
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