Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
A few years ago I looked into this and came to the conclusion that the technology needed to mature a bit and gas prices rise a bit before these made sense. Now I am looking at it again. What are your conclusions?
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
We have had one, loved it, and fantastic resale value as well.
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
From what I have read, unless you keep the car for over 100,000 miles it isn't worth it. The premium price you pay for the hybrid doesn't make up for the fuel savings.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
We did the math comparing a comparably equipped honda fit and prius c, assuming either is bought new with cash and held for 200,000 miles. With our predominantly city miles (which is where you get the big hybrid advantage) and assuming gas at $3.30/gallon, we expect to come out slightly ahead with the prius c, even after considering the slightly higher insurance and taxes.
Edited to add: But it really varies based on the non-hybrid and hybrid cars you're comparing. Some hybrids get little advantage over the traditional version.
Edited to add: But it really varies based on the non-hybrid and hybrid cars you're comparing. Some hybrids get little advantage over the traditional version.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
It's debatable. If you are driving a Honda Accord I4 ($21,955) and suddenly want to save gas and decide to buy a Prius ($24,200), then you are giving up horse power from maybe 180s to somewhere 130s. If you are willing to give up horsepower for mpg, then go for it. However, if you are driving a Toyota Corolla ($16,800) then you are not giving up anything (in term of horsepower) switching to a Prius. But Prius is more expensive than Corolla or Accord, and it will take some time to cut even.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
It really depends on how much you drive, and how. I decided in 2007 that a Honda Civic hybrid didn't make sense over the Civic LX, because I had an all-freeway commute. The hybrid would have saved a bit on gas, but it would have cost more and caused more environmental damage to make. When I moved to NJ in 2010, that decision became a mistake; in NJ, I was ten miles from the nearest freeway and drove a lot on surface streets around town, so the hybrid would have saved me a lot more gas. (I usually got about 32 MPG in Maryland, and 27 in NJ.) I still have the car and have returned to Maryland, where I commute on the freeway again.
It does also matter how long you keep the car, but not as much as it might seem, because the hybrid has a higher resale value; if you sell a hybrid after five years, you will get back more than half the extra amount you paid for the car.
It does also matter how long you keep the car, but not as much as it might seem, because the hybrid has a higher resale value; if you sell a hybrid after five years, you will get back more than half the extra amount you paid for the car.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
You give up a decent amount of trunk space with either the accord or especially a Corolla. When your lugging a double stroller, that tends to matter more than 0-60:) Hybrids are cars that make sense for some people and not others. They have been out for 15 years and the early fears of unreliability (remember when all the battery packs were going to fail in year 8) have proven pretty unfounded.
FWIW that Tesla calculator said that buying a model S would effectively pay me over 350/month by buying one. Who can argue with numbers like that?:) Of course as soon as they don't let EVs in the carpool lane I would end up with a 500+/month car....
FWIW that Tesla calculator said that buying a model S would effectively pay me over 350/month by buying one. Who can argue with numbers like that?:) Of course as soon as they don't let EVs in the carpool lane I would end up with a 500+/month car....
wander wrote:It's debatable. If you are driving a Honda Accord I4 ($21,955) and suddenly want to save gas and decide to buy a Prius ($24,200), then you are giving up horse power from maybe 180s to somewhere 130s. If you are willing to give up horsepower for mpg, then go for it. However, if you are driving a Toyota Corolla ($16,800) then you are not giving up anything (in term of horsepower) switching to a Prius. But Prius is more expensive than Corolla or Accord, and it will take some time to cut even.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
For city driving -- especially places with hills & stop lights/stop signs -- it makes a huge difference.
My gas car was rated at 28/32 -- I got a puny 12 mpg on the streets of San Francisco. In comparison, my Prius got 42mpg (rated 49/44). The difference came out to 2.5 fewer fillups a month -- quick back of the napkin math says $1200 per year in gas savings.
My gas car was rated at 28/32 -- I got a puny 12 mpg on the streets of San Francisco. In comparison, my Prius got 42mpg (rated 49/44). The difference came out to 2.5 fewer fillups a month -- quick back of the napkin math says $1200 per year in gas savings.
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Same experience here, first with Civic Hybrid, now with Prius.sambb wrote:We have had one, loved it, and fantastic resale value as well.
Few decisions in life motivated by greed ever have happy outcomes--Peter Bernstein, The 60/40 Solution
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Same here, we have a Camry hybrid and love it.RunningRad wrote:Same experience here, first with Civic Hybrid, now with Prius.sambb wrote:We have had one, loved it, and fantastic resale value as well.
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
As other have pointed out, a lot depends on the type of driving you do. For stop and go city traffic hybrids are great, but for highway driving not so much. I'm mainly driving on the highway and when I ran the numbers it would take 1.3 million miles of highway driving for a base model Prius C to break even with a Mitsubishi Mirage CVT.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Ditto on that.......we have a 2012 Camry Hybrid that we bought in Eugene of all places!dkdoy wrote:Same here, we have a Camry hybrid and love it.RunningRad wrote:Same experience here, first with Civic Hybrid, now with Prius.sambb wrote:We have had one, loved it, and fantastic resale value as well.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Hybrids have been a good idea for a very long time already.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
I find the camry hybrid xle to be far cheaper than the camry xle v6. The idea that they are more expensive is not valid in my opinion. Sure it is more expensive than the camry 4 cylinder le model. But at the top of the line it is far far cheaper.
The city driving MPG is also far understated. Hybrids can get 50-70 mpg in the city with relative ease. I found the resale value also to be amazing, far better than online sites predicted. They just don't lose value very quickly.
Its a win, depending on which model you buy - at least for toyota. And their popularity reflects that. The prius doesn't compete with a corolla - it is a different buyer. But it can also be a loss. Here is the real comparison -
If we go purely on size of vehicle and options, it would be cheapest to take a bus. It is not a straightforward comparison with a hybrid. The best comparison is the following question : "What are you considering?" I know of a gentleman who considered a prius vs a BMW. His comparison was not Prius vs corolla. For him the prius is far cheaper. So , it all depends on the models you are considering.
SImilarly, i have a family member with a 95k tesla, and we find it far far overpriced and limiting, and featureless, compared to 60 k german sedans. So for us, the comparison in this case, makes no sense. I could care less if people say the tesla is more like a panamera 4s. Thats not my comparison. For me, the comparison is a 60k german sedan, and the tesla cannot even come close.
Hence, I am not sold on gas savings in every case. It is individualized.
The city driving MPG is also far understated. Hybrids can get 50-70 mpg in the city with relative ease. I found the resale value also to be amazing, far better than online sites predicted. They just don't lose value very quickly.
Its a win, depending on which model you buy - at least for toyota. And their popularity reflects that. The prius doesn't compete with a corolla - it is a different buyer. But it can also be a loss. Here is the real comparison -
If we go purely on size of vehicle and options, it would be cheapest to take a bus. It is not a straightforward comparison with a hybrid. The best comparison is the following question : "What are you considering?" I know of a gentleman who considered a prius vs a BMW. His comparison was not Prius vs corolla. For him the prius is far cheaper. So , it all depends on the models you are considering.
SImilarly, i have a family member with a 95k tesla, and we find it far far overpriced and limiting, and featureless, compared to 60 k german sedans. So for us, the comparison in this case, makes no sense. I could care less if people say the tesla is more like a panamera 4s. Thats not my comparison. For me, the comparison is a 60k german sedan, and the tesla cannot even come close.
Hence, I am not sold on gas savings in every case. It is individualized.
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Hybrid cars are a great idea but whether they makes economic sense is another thing entirely.
I considered buying one but the cost/benefit did not work. The payback on the higher initial cost was too far out.
These same factors come into play on all these types of energy saving products like solar panels, high-eff HVAC, energy saving light bulbs, electric cars, hybrid cars, etc.
Many times (unfortunately most times) they make no economic sense. For example, should I pay $10 for a lightbulb to put in a lamp I use only 10 minutes a few times a week? Should I pay $5,000 extra for a hybrid car that will save me $3,000 in gas over my usage period?
Everyone has a different situation so work out the numbers for yourself. Don't delude yourself though.
Many people are buying these things on emotion and not logic. But the car industry has always been based on emotional sales.
I considered buying one but the cost/benefit did not work. The payback on the higher initial cost was too far out.
These same factors come into play on all these types of energy saving products like solar panels, high-eff HVAC, energy saving light bulbs, electric cars, hybrid cars, etc.
Many times (unfortunately most times) they make no economic sense. For example, should I pay $10 for a lightbulb to put in a lamp I use only 10 minutes a few times a week? Should I pay $5,000 extra for a hybrid car that will save me $3,000 in gas over my usage period?
Everyone has a different situation so work out the numbers for yourself. Don't delude yourself though.
Many people are buying these things on emotion and not logic. But the car industry has always been based on emotional sales.
“Gold gets dug out of the ground, then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”--Warren Buffett
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
If you're considering buying a hybrid, you might want to consider the following:
BMW ActiveHybrid 3 and 5
Mercedes E400
Mercedes S500 hybrid
Mercedes C300 Bluetec (better mileage than a Prius)
Porsche 918 Spyder
Porsche Panamera plug-in hybrid
I sincerely doubt that people who buy these cars are motivated by the few hundred dollars a year in fuel savings. So why would anyone buy these cars? The answer might well be that they're nicer cars to drive. Gasoline engines are not really great at low speeds; think getting into a tight parking space on a steep hill and trying to give enough gas to move without hitting the car behind you or getting into a garage on top of steep hill. Electric motors, on the other hand, are perfect for that since they have maximum torque at zero rpm. A luxury car manufacturer aiming for the highest possible performance might well want to use a hybrid system for just this reason.
The fact that the Prius is the best selling car overall in California might be due to a heightened sense of environmental awareness among Californians but it could equally well be due to the fact that Prius is a nicer car to drive than comparable non-hybrids at about the same cost over the life of the car.
BMW ActiveHybrid 3 and 5
Mercedes E400
Mercedes S500 hybrid
Mercedes C300 Bluetec (better mileage than a Prius)
Porsche 918 Spyder
Porsche Panamera plug-in hybrid
I sincerely doubt that people who buy these cars are motivated by the few hundred dollars a year in fuel savings. So why would anyone buy these cars? The answer might well be that they're nicer cars to drive. Gasoline engines are not really great at low speeds; think getting into a tight parking space on a steep hill and trying to give enough gas to move without hitting the car behind you or getting into a garage on top of steep hill. Electric motors, on the other hand, are perfect for that since they have maximum torque at zero rpm. A luxury car manufacturer aiming for the highest possible performance might well want to use a hybrid system for just this reason.
The fact that the Prius is the best selling car overall in California might be due to a heightened sense of environmental awareness among Californians but it could equally well be due to the fact that Prius is a nicer car to drive than comparable non-hybrids at about the same cost over the life of the car.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
OP. Not directly related to your original question, but I noticed that you are in Atlanta, GA. If it fits your transportation needs, you may want to consider an Electric Vehicle (EV). I evaluated my needs last year and decided to lease a Nissan LEAF. Factoring in the $7.5k Federal credit (reduces the cost of the lease) and the current $5k GA tax credit (income tax filing), I will be close to break even over the 24 month lease.
Check out this Nissan LEAF forum, which has a ton of info...
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewforum.p ... 310773848c
The drawback is the range might be limiting (75-100 miles per charge) and it takes awhile to recharge on a regular 110v line. I had a 220v home charger installed which reduces the charge time.
Also consider the risk of possibly losing the $5k GA tax credit...
http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/blog ... l?page=all
Good luck with your decision!
Adam
Check out this Nissan LEAF forum, which has a ton of info...
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewforum.p ... 310773848c
The drawback is the range might be limiting (75-100 miles per charge) and it takes awhile to recharge on a regular 110v line. I had a 220v home charger installed which reduces the charge time.
Also consider the risk of possibly losing the $5k GA tax credit...
http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/blog ... l?page=all
Good luck with your decision!
Adam
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
I agree with you about the numbers BUT in actual practice the breakeven is often closer than we think.HardKnocker wrote:Many times (unfortunately most times) they make no economic sense. For example, should I pay $10 for a lightbulb to put in a lamp I use only 10 minutes a few times a week? Should I pay $5,000 extra for a hybrid car that will save me $3,000 in gas over my usage period?
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Hybrid
At $4/gallon that's 750 gallons of gas = $3000
If the non hybrid gets 25mpg and the hybrid 35mpg say, then for 10,000 miles that's:
non hybrid 400 gallons x 4 = $1600
hybrid 285 gallons x 4 = $1142
Difference of $458 in 10,000 miles.
Your $3k savings would happen after about 65,000 miles.
Or in other words the $5000 cost differential is paid off after 109,000 miles. The calculation would be less favourable if we assumed say 35 mpg/ 45 mpg ie if the comparison is a very economical small car.
ASSUMING
- no inflation in gas prices
109,000 miles is probably not excessive for car ownership in the USA.
Lightbulbs
1. if the question on a lightbulb is 'should I replace early'?
answer: for a lightbulb I use c 750 hours a year (2 hours a day) at UK electricity prices (c. 22 cents USD per kwhr) yes, it was Net Present Value positive at a 4% discount rate (payback was around 5-6 years)-- for most of my bulbs my payback was less than 3 years. This result surprised me- it was worth scrapping a 60w lightbulb early.
(I was mostly replacing 50W halogen spots btw, rather than incandescents).
2. When a lightbulb needs replacement then the question is 'should I replace it with an LED bulb?'
and the answer is almost always a resounding YES given that:
- LED will last 4-5x as long (8,000-10,000 hours v. 2,000 hours) so breakeven on the purchase price
- LED will burn c. 1/8th the energy
You might take a view you won't be in the house another 15 years, say, but you could then take the lightbulb with you to your new home.
Again assuming no increases in electricity prices over the next 5-10 years. Conversely you could argue LEDs are likely to get cheaper, again my first calculation surprised me (there had to be a fairly steep fall before it was worth delaying).
the big problem was getting the 'natural' ie yellow light out of LEDs and they do that now quite acceptably (brands vary).
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
As others have stated, the extent to which a hybrid is cost effective depends upon several factors: the type of car and model, driving pattern (city and highway), and number of miles you expect to drive the car. The cost effectiveness is based upon current gas prices which can fluctuate and if/when there is another political crisis in the middle east or elsewhere, gas prices could go up dramatically and potentially remain high for a long time. Everything else being neutral, I view a hybrid as a good hedge against rising gas prices. If you are breakeven at $3.50 a gallon, a hybrid is much more attractive at $4.50 a gallon plus the resale value will also increase dramatically.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
I think it's worth it from a non-financial perspective. The new 2014 Accord Hybrid looks pretty nice, although at close to $30k it's not cheap.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
I am thinking about the Ford Fusion Hybrid, which is highest rated
hybrid by US News.
http://usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/ca ... brid-Cars/
hybrid by US News.
http://usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/ca ... brid-Cars/
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The most important thing you should know about me is that I am not an expert.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
is there a difference in cost of repairs or frequency of repairs?
Does a hybrid have less power? If so, is that lower power a problem in situations like getting onto the expressway?
Does a hybrid have less power? If so, is that lower power a problem in situations like getting onto the expressway?
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The most important thing you should know about me is that I am not an expert.
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
We are very happy with our 2012 prius but we drive 25k miles per year so it is a huge cost savings to us compared to a non hybrid car. It has adequate power and lots of space especially with the hatchback. It isn't a driver's car per se but my wife loves the efficiency and the heated seats so it makes her happy. We get the advertised 45+ mpg all the time.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
What is the analysis on scrap/recycle of battery laden cars?
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Dealt with hybrids and LED lightbulbs in another post.HardKnocker wrote: These same factors come into play on all these types of energy saving products like solar panels, high-eff HVAC, .
Solar panels are not an energy saving product (I realize how the utility deals with them in terms of payments, it might look like that). That's a calculation based on subsidies received. Unless you live in Hawaii, Connecticut (I believe) or (some parts of) California, solar PV won't work without the subsidies.
RE HVAC. It is essentially (again with the 3 exceptions listed ie where electricity can cost you 30 cents/ kwhr) never worth replacing early.
When you do replace it is *usually* worth considering reaching to SEER 15 over SEER 13 (the usual minimum standard I believe). Because this is long life equipment: you are likely to only do it once in your tenure in the home. I believe payback tends to hover around 10 years however:
- electricity prices might rise. I would argue US electricity prices have to rise: US electricity is generated and transmitted by old plant, much built in the 1960s and 70s (the grid in particular), replacement cost is 3-4x as high (partly due to inflation, the switch from coal/ nuclear to natural gas confuses things; the grid numbers are utterly clear and the problem is very now), so US electricity prices have to rise because in the end electricity prices are based on the capital costs + fuel costs of the producers
- the higher SEER systems have 2 speed cooling (variable speed?) and other niceties. This tends to make a big improvement in comfort: the usual problem with HVAC systems is they cycle too much (too hot and too cold) trying to deal with humidity. The result is also a disproportionate improvement in energy savings (because the thing doesn't run full out as much)
A lot of posters here have noticed the improvement in comfort arising from these variable speed systems.
I am not clear that SEER 18 is worth it, but SEER 15 is (an exception might be if you seldom use AC). A related consideration is how long you plan to stay in the house and you have to make an assumption re terminal value, ie whether the new buyer values the lower energy bills/ greater comfort.
Generally the only systems where it pays to replace *before* the end of useful life are:
- lightbulbs (as per my previous post, and somewhat to my surprise)
- refrigerators (if pre 1992 in particular) - the savings can be dramatic - a 1980 fridge burned 2000 kwhr pa (say USD $210) and a modern one might burn 600 kwhr (say USD $65)
Depending on your water tariff it might make sense to go to a front loading washing machine, but that's a separate issue.
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
dbr wrote:What is the analysis on scrap/recycle of battery laden cars?
The analysis is hotly debated but the EU and the UK government has commissioned a lot of work (google Ricardo lifecycle carbon lifecycle analysis EV PHEV and you should get some good powerpoints). Ricardo is one of the world's leading automotive consultancies.
Best guess is scrappage is less than 5% of lifecycle emissions of a PHEV car driven 200k kilometers (about 160k miles) in its lifetime.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Thu May 29, 2014 9:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
- HardKnocker
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Sorry to bust your bubble but those numbers I threw out there are meaningless. I just made them up. They have no basis in reality.Valuethinker wrote:I agree with you about the numbers BUT in actual practice the breakeven is often closer than we think.HardKnocker wrote:Many times (unfortunately most times) they make no economic sense. For example, should I pay $10 for a lightbulb to put in a lamp I use only 10 minutes a few times a week? Should I pay $5,000 extra for a hybrid car that will save me $3,000 in gas over my usage period?
.
Hybrid
At $4/gallon that's 750 gallons of gas = $3000
If the non hybrid gets 25mpg and the hybrid 35mpg say, then for 10,000 miles that's:
non hybrid 400 gallons x 4 = $1600
hybrid 285 gallons x 4 = $1142
Difference of $458 in 10,000 miles.
Your $3k savings would happen after about 65,000 miles.
Or in other words the $5000 cost differential is paid off after 109,000 miles. The calculation would be less favourable if we assumed say 35 mpg/ 45 mpg ie if the comparison is a very economical small car.
ASSUMING
- no inflation in gas prices
109,000 miles is probably not excessive for car ownership in the USA.
Lightbulbs
1. if the question on a lightbulb is 'should I replace early'?
answer: for a lightbulb I use c 750 hours a year (2 hours a day) at UK electricity prices (c. 22 cents USD per kwhr) yes, it was Net Present Value positive at a 4% discount rate (payback was around 5-6 years)-- for most of my bulbs my payback was less than 3 years. This result surprised me- it was worth scrapping a 60w lightbulb early.
(I was mostly replacing 50W halogen spots btw, rather than incandescents).
2. When a lightbulb needs replacement then the question is 'should I replace it with an LED bulb?'
and the answer is almost always a resounding YES given that:
- LED will last 4-5x as long (8,000-10,000 hours v. 2,000 hours) so breakeven on the purchase price
- LED will burn c. 1/8th the energy
You might take a view you won't be in the house another 15 years, say, but you could then take the lightbulb with you to your new home.
Again assuming no increases in electricity prices over the next 5-10 years. Conversely you could argue LEDs are likely to get cheaper, again my first calculation surprised me (there had to be a fairly steep fall before it was worth delaying).
the big problem was getting the 'natural' ie yellow light out of LEDs and they do that now quite acceptably (brands vary).
But even taking them as Gospel your reasoning is silly.
I have to drive a car for 109,000 miles just to get to "break even"? That's ridiculous. What if I trade the car before then? What if I wreck the car? What if gas prices drop?
What if the car malfunctions and I have to repair it?
I am going to carry my lightbulbs around from place to place in my travels? What if they break? What will I replace the bulbs I removed with? What if the bulbs don't last for their estimated lifespan?
Should I put solar panels on my house? Hmm...what is my current and expected usage of electricity? What is the payback period till I break even? What is the SREC reimbursment? How sure can I be of the future market price for SRECs? What are the government subsidies? Will they continue? How long will the panels last before they need replacement? 18-20 years? How long before the inverter needs replacement? 10 years?
Should I buy the following cars to save fuel costs? A Chevy Volt so I can drive it 3 miles to and from the train station M-F? Should I buy a Tesla to save gas but I have to spend 30 minutes drinking a latte at the Starbucks next door to the charging station while waiting for a slot to open?
These products can be very good but only if they make sense dollar wise. They can for some people in some situations.
Of course if the cost of these products decreases, new decisions as to their cost effectiveness will be made.
Last edited by HardKnocker on Thu May 29, 2014 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
“Gold gets dug out of the ground, then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”--Warren Buffett
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
With the implication that you think your point was invalid?HardKnocker wrote:Sorry to bust your bubble but those numbers I threw out there are meaningless. I just made them up. They have no basis in reality.Valuethinker wrote:I agree with you about the numbers BUT in actual practice the breakeven is often closer than we think.HardKnocker wrote:Many times (unfortunately most times) they make no economic sense. For example, should I pay $10 for a lightbulb to put in a lamp I use only 10 minutes a few times a week? Should I pay $5,000 extra for a hybrid car that will save me $3,000 in gas over my usage period?
.
Hybrid
At $4/gallon that's 750 gallons of gas = $3000
If the non hybrid gets 25mpg and the hybrid 35mpg say, then for 10,000 miles that's:
non hybrid 400 gallons x 4 = $1600
hybrid 285 gallons x 4 = $1142
Difference of $458 in 10,000 miles.
Your $3k savings would happen after about 65,000 miles.
Or in other words the $5000 cost differential is paid off after 109,000 miles. The calculation would be less favourable if we assumed say 35 mpg/ 45 mpg ie if the comparison is a very economical small car.
ASSUMING
- no inflation in gas prices
109,000 miles is probably not excessive for car ownership in the USA.
Lightbulbs
1. if the question on a lightbulb is 'should I replace early'?
answer: for a lightbulb I use c 750 hours a year (2 hours a day) at UK electricity prices (c. 22 cents USD per kwhr) yes, it was Net Present Value positive at a 4% discount rate (payback was around 5-6 years)-- for most of my bulbs my payback was less than 3 years. This result surprised me- it was worth scrapping a 60w lightbulb early.
(I was mostly replacing 50W halogen spots btw, rather than incandescents).
2. When a lightbulb needs replacement then the question is 'should I replace it with an LED bulb?'
and the answer is almost always a resounding YES given that:
- LED will last 4-5x as long (8,000-10,000 hours v. 2,000 hours) so breakeven on the purchase price
- LED will burn c. 1/8th the energy
You might take a view you won't be in the house another 15 years, say, but you could then take the lightbulb with you to your new home.
Again assuming no increases in electricity prices over the next 5-10 years. Conversely you could argue LEDs are likely to get cheaper, again my first calculation surprised me (there had to be a fairly steep fall before it was worth delaying).
the big problem was getting the 'natural' ie yellow light out of LEDs and they do that now quite acceptably (brands vary).
ie someone makes a quantitative statement, someone else says 'hang on, if we plug in some numbers that have some resemblance to the real world we don't get that outcome'. At which point did you mean your original point to be valid or where you just trying to be ironic?
An example
person 1: 'fund management costs don't matter, it doesn't matter whether you pay 75 bips (basis points) or 20'
person 2: runs calculation, finds a significant difference in terminal wealth
person 1: 'sorry to bust your bubble, but I just made those numbers up'
person 2: ?
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
I don't think the cost of my $30,000 Ford C-Max Energi plug-in hybrid can be justified compared to a $20,000 economy car, just like a $45,000 Lexus can't pencil out compared to my car. But I really enjoy driving a very quiet electric car, and rarely buying gasoline, and for me, in my older age, that is priceless. (Oil changes as long as every 2 years or 20,000 miles. It costs about $3 in electricity to go 100 miles.)
My 2,000th post. Another 60 years on BH and I'll hit the esteem 20,000 mark!
My 2,000th post. Another 60 years on BH and I'll hit the esteem 20,000 mark!
Last edited by BigFoot48 on Thu May 29, 2014 12:39 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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- HardKnocker
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
As I said, for some people they can be a good idea. So run the numbers and see where it falls out for you.
I don't think most people do this. They just buy these things without thought.
The cost/benefit for an expensive energy efficient lightbulb is only there if you use the light for many hours. If you only use the light a few hours a month there is no cost effectiveness. You never break even.
People buy a Chevy Volt not just to save gas. It's also a statement for them to others than they are hip, energy conscious people. Maybe they like the interior or body. Maybe they like Chevys. Maybe they like to be on the edge of innovation. Lots of reasons. Likewise a Tesla.
Maybe they buy LED bulbs because they like the shape of the bulb.
I don't think most people do this. They just buy these things without thought.
The cost/benefit for an expensive energy efficient lightbulb is only there if you use the light for many hours. If you only use the light a few hours a month there is no cost effectiveness. You never break even.
People buy a Chevy Volt not just to save gas. It's also a statement for them to others than they are hip, energy conscious people. Maybe they like the interior or body. Maybe they like Chevys. Maybe they like to be on the edge of innovation. Lots of reasons. Likewise a Tesla.
Maybe they buy LED bulbs because they like the shape of the bulb.
“Gold gets dug out of the ground, then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”--Warren Buffett
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
I have a Camry Hybrid which I bought after a lot of research. I love it and would never buy anything less electric than a hybrid in the future.
The issue with asking this question on a forum where most don't own a hybrid is that there are many skeptics who don't own a hybrid and bandy around the same general points not valid anymore. IMO a good way to gauge a car is to go to that car's forum and spend some time reading through people's questions, concerns, applauds etc. There are forums for every car but not every car get or car maker gets the same love from the forum members. This could be useful if you assume the forum members are statistically significant.
Also, if you keep looking and ask quotes from the internet departments of dealerships around, you may even get a good deal where the hybrid isn't priced too differently from the conventional.
The issue with asking this question on a forum where most don't own a hybrid is that there are many skeptics who don't own a hybrid and bandy around the same general points not valid anymore. IMO a good way to gauge a car is to go to that car's forum and spend some time reading through people's questions, concerns, applauds etc. There are forums for every car but not every car get or car maker gets the same love from the forum members. This could be useful if you assume the forum members are statistically significant.
Also, if you keep looking and ask quotes from the internet departments of dealerships around, you may even get a good deal where the hybrid isn't priced too differently from the conventional.
- HardKnocker
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- Location: New Jersey USA
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Cost/benefit. No matter what you are buying (if you are buying it primarily for its utility and not style, pleasure, luxury) then if the numbers make sense you should buy it.slbnoob wrote:I have a Camry Hybrid which I bought after a lot of research. I love it and would never buy anything less electric than a hybrid in the future.
The issue with asking this question on a forum where most don't own a hybrid is that there are many skeptics who don't own a hybrid and bandy around the same general points not valid anymore. IMO a good way to gauge a car is to go to that car's forum and spend some time reading through people's questions, concerns, applauds etc. There are forums for every car but not every car get or car maker gets the same love from the forum members. This could be useful if you assume the forum members are statistically significant.
Also, if you keep looking and ask quotes from the internet departments of dealerships around, you may even get a good deal where the hybrid isn't priced too differently from the conventional.
If you have a choice between identical Camrys (except for powerplant) then if the hybrid is the cost/benefit winner you should buy it.
“Gold gets dug out of the ground, then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”--Warren Buffett
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
FWIW, I have driven a Prius since I purchased it new in 2008. My only expense has been gas and oil changes. It has been flawless, mechanically. I will tell you, Prius drivers get no respect on the road (speaking of my midwest town). People will pull out in front of you and generally disregard the vehicle. Defensive driving is very important.
I will also tell you, my next car will be bigger. I fear the Prius would sustain significant damage, as would occupants, in a serious collision.
I will also tell you, my next car will be bigger. I fear the Prius would sustain significant damage, as would occupants, in a serious collision.
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
I suspect most Bogleheads do run the numbers, as we did on both bulbs and cars. You're probably correct about the general population. But VT and others are addressing the former, not the latter, in these posts.HardKnocker wrote:As I said, for some people they can be a good idea. So run the numbers and see where it falls out for you.
I don't think most people do this. They just buy these things without thought.
OP was obviously asking for some help running the numbers on hybrid cars. With hybrids as with LED bulbs, there are many factors to consider, so it seems like a good question to me. I drive a Prius that just hit 100,000 miles. I bought it used when gas prices were low, and it was only about $3,000 more than a Corolla of the same age/miles/condition. It's already roughly made up the price difference, but the battery has not been replaced yet, which may change the economics, whenever that needs to happen. I knew that going in. It's been a fun car to drive (in Northern Virginia, where a good percentage of other cars on the road are small hybrids).
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Yet? They've been a good idea for a long time. As others have mentioned, it's more than just a purely financial consideration. It you're going purely on finances, walking and biking are the best, followed by bus and subway. However, the financial consideration I made when I bought a Prius is that there is a higher likelihood that gas prices will rise rather than fall over the duration of time I will have the car. So, as others have mentioned it's a hedge on rising/spiked gas prices.
Sometimes you win simply by not losing.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Don't want to hijack the thread, but this year I've been trying to replace the G9 bulbs in a bathroom fitting with LED, the LED spec may say they will last forever, but measured life has been in weeks rather than months. These bulbs are not mainstream, so only obtainable from the kind of sellers who don't give refunds. (Ebay, Chinese online companies, resellers for same.)
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Not as good an idea as they were a few years ago.
On our 2010 Altima Hybrid we bought in late 2009 we got the federal hybrid tax credit, a big state hybrid tax credit, the federal new car tax deduction, and a manufacturers rebate that was much larger than on the non-hybrid version. All the credits and deductions are now long gone. Oh and it was priced $400 under invoice before the rebate. After everything I think it ended up being $14,000 under the sticker price and we love it.
On our 2010 Altima Hybrid we bought in late 2009 we got the federal hybrid tax credit, a big state hybrid tax credit, the federal new car tax deduction, and a manufacturers rebate that was much larger than on the non-hybrid version. All the credits and deductions are now long gone. Oh and it was priced $400 under invoice before the rebate. After everything I think it ended up being $14,000 under the sticker price and we love it.
70/30 AA for life, Global market cap equity. Rebalance if fixed income <25% or >35%. Weighted ER< .10%. 5% of annual portfolio balance SWR, Proportional (to AA) withdrawals.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Last month we went shopping for new cars and looked at the Ford Fusion hybrid, the Honda Accord hybrid and the Toyota Camry hybrid. We ended up buying the Camry LE hybrid for $23,689. Given that you would pay about the same for a non-hybrid Camry with similar features, the hybrid version is a bargain.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
If I had a free source of gasoline to support my driving the effect on my financial position would not be worth thinking about for more than about two seconds. The same is true of what lightbulbs I use. In point of fact I have quite a few LED bulbs, but the primary benefit so far is not having to change bulbs so often in places that are awkward to reach.
If I could make a meaningful dent in global environmental issues by driving a hybrid rather than what I do drive I would think seriously about that. As it happens there is hardly any significant impact to be made by whatever choice I might make in that department. Probably the most beneficial choice would be to not scrap the current vehicle and not cause any new vehicle to be manufactured.
If I could make a meaningful dent in global environmental issues by driving a hybrid rather than what I do drive I would think seriously about that. As it happens there is hardly any significant impact to be made by whatever choice I might make in that department. Probably the most beneficial choice would be to not scrap the current vehicle and not cause any new vehicle to be manufactured.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Kind of like asking if recycling or using energy efficient appliances is "worth it". Depends on what you value.
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Like an earlier poster mentioned,
if most of the driving is local, and have the option of charge at home,
maybe consider a plug-in hybrid, or even a 100% EV.
I drive a EV, as 90% of my driving is local,
and can charge at home during off-peak hours, using time-of-use electricity metering.
And having the ability to charge at work would be an added bonus.
if most of the driving is local, and have the option of charge at home,
maybe consider a plug-in hybrid, or even a 100% EV.
I drive a EV, as 90% of my driving is local,
and can charge at home during off-peak hours, using time-of-use electricity metering.
And having the ability to charge at work would be an added bonus.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Also have the Camry hybrid - awesome car.dkdoy wrote:Same here, we have a Camry hybrid and love it.RunningRad wrote:Same experience here, first with Civic Hybrid, now with Prius.sambb wrote:We have had one, loved it, and fantastic resale value as well.
- englishgirl
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- Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:34 pm
- Location: FL
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
You know, my commute used to involve a lot of freeway driving, and the gas mileage in my Prius was better than now, when I mostly do small in-town trips. The Prius is actually very efficient doing a steady 75 mph. Maybe I am just a poor city driver!
I drove my first Prius for 100,000 miles, and the second one is ticking along at about 65,000 right now. I don't worry about "breaking even". However, the insurance costs are wearing on me. I find it expensive to insure.
I drove my first Prius for 100,000 miles, and the second one is ticking along at about 65,000 right now. I don't worry about "breaking even". However, the insurance costs are wearing on me. I find it expensive to insure.
Sarah
- HardKnocker
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
You are an interesting test case for a hybrid car that illustrates my assertion about hybrid car buyers:englishgirl wrote:You know, my commute used to involve a lot of freeway driving, and the gas mileage in my Prius was better than now, when I mostly do small in-town trips. The Prius is actually very efficient doing a steady 75 mph. Maybe I am just a poor city driver!
I drove my first Prius for 100,000 miles, and the second one is ticking along at about 65,000 right now. I don't worry about "breaking even". However, the insurance costs are wearing on me. I find it expensive to insure.
1) Someone not concerned with break even or whether the hybrid car makes financial sense.
2) Someone who did not keep their previous Prius hybrid long enough to reach the break even point.
3) Someone who bought another Prius hybrid after the first one.
For most of us here it doesn't matter in a financial sense what we drive. We can afford to drive what we want whether it gets 50mpg or 15mpg. However we like to see if we can be more efficient with our money even if it is not really important one way or the other.
“Gold gets dug out of the ground, then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”--Warren Buffett
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
No new tires? I also have a 2008 prius and have had to replace the tires twice. I'm at 96k miles...Offshore wrote:FWIW, I have driven a Prius since I purchased it new in 2008. My only expense has been gas and oil changes. It has been flawless, mechanically. I will tell you, Prius drivers get no respect on the road (speaking of my midwest town). People will pull out in front of you and generally disregard the vehicle. Defensive driving is very important.
I will also tell you, my next car will be bigger. I fear the Prius would sustain significant damage, as would occupants, in a serious collision.
But I agree with your general point, no mechanical problems that have needed fixed yet. Couple recalls where they fixed things for free.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
You come off as having a big anti-hybrid bias in this thread. Please, share your cost/benefit analysis with us to show how much worse a hybrid was for you.HardKnocker wrote:Hybrid cars are a great idea but whether they makes economic sense is another thing entirely.
I considered buying one but the cost/benefit did not work. The payback on the higher initial cost was too far out.
These same factors come into play on all these types of energy saving products like solar panels, high-eff HVAC, energy saving light bulbs, electric cars, hybrid cars, etc.
Many times (unfortunately most times) they make no economic sense. For example, should I pay $10 for a lightbulb to put in a lamp I use only 10 minutes a few times a week? Should I pay $5,000 extra for a hybrid car that will save me $3,000 in gas over my usage period?
Everyone has a different situation so work out the numbers for yourself. Don't delude yourself though.
Many people are buying these things on emotion and not logic. But the car industry has always been based on emotional sales.
When I was researching my car, consumer reports did a cost/year analysis and Prius was the cheapest.
Still is: http://consumerreports.org/cro/2012/12/ ... /index.htm
This is based on a sample of owners all with different driving habits.
You're right, it might not be the cheapest for everybody. So please, show us your math, since you're so rigorous and analytic, to show why you are an exception to this average and your car of choice is actually cheaper than a Prius on a total cost per year basis.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
"I have to wait for 30 years to get money out of my 401k? That's ridiculous. What if I get a big inheritance? What if I die before then? What if the bottom drops out of the stock market? What if the US political system collapses?"HardKnocker wrote:
I have to drive a car for 109,000 miles just to get to "break even"? That's ridiculous. What if I trade the car before then? What if I wreck the car? What if gas prices drop?
What if the car malfunctions and I have to repair it?
Yes, gas prices may go down. They may also go up. Many people think the latter is more likely. These are bogleheads. They tend to look at the long play, and believe in a "slow and steady wins the race" approach. Not "what will bring the most immediate benefit." Reading your posts together you seem to be thinking that looking at every conceivable downside of hybrid cars is somehow more "logical." It is not.
Finally, you say "[w]hat if the car malfunctions and I have to repair it?" Do you think malfunctions are a unique property of hybrid cars?
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
No idea on the numbers when buying new. We had an opportunity to buy a used RX 400h in excellent condition with very low miles at a good price and went for it. It's faster, more fuel efficient, quieter and rides a bit more smoothly than the RX 300/350. We're very happy with it but you have to assess based on your priorities. Clearly for many here it's all about the premium on the sticker versus the added fuel economy. Those numbers do matter to us but they're not our top nor only concerns so I doubt that my comments are going to be relevant to a lot of Bogleheads.tc101 wrote:What are your conclusions?
Depends on the hybrid and the equivalent that you're comparing it to. It's not just HP but torque (especially the instantly available torque from the electric motor) as well.tc101 wrote:Does a hybrid have less power?
Not all hybrids are focused on saving fuel. Ours would definitely not easily reach 50-70.sambb wrote:Hybrids can get 50-70 mpg in the city with relative ease.
Last edited by takeshi on Thu May 29, 2014 4:01 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
They make slightly more sense then they used to..... Opinions vary on what that means My only advice is to drive one in various conditions before you buy one....... I know a dozen hours in a couple of makes / models made my mind up VERY clearly.
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Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien
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Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Consumer Report's rankings are sketchy at best. They list the Prius C two as the least expensive car to own while just about everyone else lists the Prius C one as the least expensive hybrid...makes sense too since the Prius C one has a lower sale price.cubedbee wrote:You're right, it might not be the cheapest for everybody. So please, show us your math, since you're so rigorous and analytic, to show why you are an exception to this average and your car of choice is actually cheaper than a Prius on a total cost per year basis.
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news ... /index.htm
Kelly Blue Book has numbers for five year cost of ownership, and I believe their reigning champ for least expensive car is the non-hybrid Chevy Spark. The Prius c one comes in at almost $3000 more than the Spark.http://www.kbb.com/new-cars/total-cost-of-ownership/
Cars.com ran the numbers for 8 years of ownership and had the non-hybrid Mitsubishi Mirage and Chevy Spark coming in $3000 less than the Prius C. http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2014 ... n-buy.html
Obviously, city driving tilts the numbers in favor of the hybrids while highway driving favors the inexpensive straight gasoline cars.