Social Security estimates if early retiring?

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Topic Author
wormtail
Posts: 61
Joined: Wed Jul 30, 2008 5:42 pm

Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by wormtail »

There was a thread before about this but I can't find it. On SS.gov you can get an estimate of your benefits assuming you continue working. Someone said there was a way to manually populate your earning history and put in zero for years after early retirement and get a SS estimate. For example I plan to take SS at age 70 but may retire at 61 or 62. I would like to know what my FRA and age 70 benefit is assuming these facts. The earning history one can get on the SS site which I have done.

Thanks in advance.
wormtail
goblue100
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by goblue100 »

Looks to me like you would do it here:
http://www.ssa.gov/retire2/AnypiaApplet.html
"Confusion has its cost" - Crosby, Stills and Nash
fh2000
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by fh2000 »

I use this one: http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/quickcalc/index.html

I plan to early retire next year at the age of 58. So, I entered all my earnings history and leave $0 for the very last entry (2013 and beyond). It then gave me amounts if I take it at 62, 66-4month, or 70. Maybe I will try it again next month after they modify the form by adding (2014 and beyond) for more accurate amounts.
2retire
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by 2retire »

The only way to get an accurate number for your scenario is to go to the link below and download the calculator to your PC (if you have a Mac, you are out of luck).

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/anypia/anypia.html

I've been playing with it for the past few days. It allows you to create all kinds of scenarios. It isn't completely obvious how to use it but if you play with it, you'll eventually figure it out. The only thing I find annoying about it is that I can't get it to match the numbers that display on my SS statement that they generate online. The dollar values are close but are sometimes off by 50 to 100 dollars a month. The values it calculates tend to be lower so as long as I plan on those numbers, I can be happily surprised if my real checks come in higher.

Note: Beware of the applet mentioned in post #2. If you retire before 62, it will only calculate your benefit at age 62. It assumes you'll start withdrawing as soon as you hit 62.
ajcp
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by ajcp »

You can calculate do it manually using this and input whatever you want.

http://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10070.pdf

More DIY, but it explains how the benefit is calculated and it's not as complicated as you might initially think.
sscritic
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by sscritic »

2retire wrote:(if you have a Mac, you are out of luck).

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/anypia/anypia.html
It depends on what version of Mac OS X you are running.
Note that this Mac version will not work on a Mac running Lion or newer versions of the OS X operating system.
I have a macbook with Tiger and a bootable back up for my iMac that runs Leopard. anypia works with both.

P.S. This and other programs that might not work in newer versions of OS X is a reason to keep bootable backups of older operating systems. Airport Utility 5.6 for controlling an old Airport Express is another such program.
Topic Author
wormtail
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by wormtail »

I did the calculator mentioned in post #2 and it gave me a benefit as if you took SS at 62. Assuming the benefit goes up 8% per year if delayed I multiplied that number by 1.64 to get an age 70 benefit. Is that calculation correct? That particular calculator assumes you will work till 62 so I will try the other calculators for scenarios that I stop working before that.
sscritic
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by sscritic »

If you were born on the first or second of the month and your FRA is 66, then the age 70 benefit is 1.76 times the age 62 benefit assuming the same PIA (say you stop working at 58). If you were born later in the month and your FRA is 66, then your age 70 benefit is 1.75 your age 62 and one month benefit. [1.32 / 0.75 or 1.32 / (181/240)]

P.S. Both the age 62 and the age 70 benefit get the same COLA, whether you are collecting or not.

P.P.S. it doesn't go up 8% a year, and if it did, you would have to compound over the eight years, not multiply 8% by eight.
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Hexdump
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by Hexdump »

ajcp wrote:You can calculate do it manually using this and input whatever you want.

http://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10070.pdf

More DIY, but it explains how the benefit is calculated and it's not as complicated as you might initially think.
It's a shame that they could not provide that in an Excel format. Sigh.
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jeffyscott
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by jeffyscott »

Why use those clunky calculators, when they have this estimate tool: https://www.socialsecurity.gov/estimator/

This gives an estimate based on your actual earnings record, without having to manually enter the data as they already have it. After you get the initial estimate, you can put in different scenarios, such as one reflecting early retirement plans.
Buckeye
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by Buckeye »

I use simple SS calculator to get value at 62.
Then I divide by 0.7 to get FRA at 67.
Then I multiply by 1.24 to get delayed value at 70.
ajcp
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by ajcp »

Hexdump wrote:
ajcp wrote:You can calculate do it manually using this and input whatever you want.

http://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10070.pdf

More DIY, but it explains how the benefit is calculated and it's not as complicated as you might initially think.
It's a shame that they could not provide that in an Excel format. Sigh.
Yea, that would have been nice, but I was curious, so I made one for myself. I don't know how it compares to jeff's link since I don't have 40 credits yet, but you can use my template to get you started.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bx2d7OD ... jBRSjRPWXM

The benefit will be overestimated if you made over 4768/month, because, well, with all those 0 years for me I'm nowhere near that. So if that's you, change SS at 67 to "1984+.15(monthly earnings-4768)" It also needs to be tweaked if FRA is not 67.
Last edited by ajcp on Sun Dec 29, 2013 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
sscritic
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by sscritic »

Your doc is protected, so I can't look at it.

What did you use for your annual increase in the national average wage index? $4768 changes every year for a new birth cohort; $4768 is only for those born in 1951. [fixed typo]
people born in 1951 become age 62 in 2013
Last edited by sscritic on Sun Dec 29, 2013 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
ajcp
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by ajcp »

sscritic wrote:Your doc is protected, so I can't look at it.

What did you use for your annual increase in the national average wage index? $4768 changes every year for a new birth cohort; $4768 is only for those born in 1953.
people born in 1951 become age 62 in 2013
Whoops, should be fixed. I just turned the information from the pdf (which is said to be for workers born in 1951) into an excel file. I knew FRA changed depending on birth year, didn't realize that the 0-791, 791-4768, and 4768+ ranges did too.
sscritic
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by sscritic »

The bend points for a given year are determined relative to the bend points in 1979 using the national average wage index for 1977 and the most recent year available year. In the case of people turning 62 in 2014, the PIA is determined based on the values from 2012, the year they turned 60. See http://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/piaformula.html

Example:
Second bend point
$1,085 [second bend point in 1979] times 44,321.67 [nawi in 2012] divided by 9,779.44 [nawi in 1977] equals $4,917.36, which rounds to $4,917
Note that the second bend point, $4768 in 2013, is now $4,917 for 2014. Remember, these are for two different groups of people, those born in 1951 and those born in 1952.

P.S. I keep messing up the two year offset, both in the previous post and this one before I just fixed it (I think). The NAWI can't be computed for 2013, say, until all the W-2s and tax returns are filed in April or October of 2014. They will have the numbers ready for use in 2015, thus the offset of two years.
Jim180
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Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

Post by Jim180 »

I got my answer the lazy way. I called SSA and a rep did it for me.
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