Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

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Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Postby investingdad » Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:27 am

So I turn 40 this month and I have "found" my net worth prediction spreadsheet. I say "found" because when our hard drive crashed this year I lost the file. :annoyed But, I found it on my Yahoo mail as I forwarded it to myself from my employer's computer 8 years ago. So that's good!

It also means I get to see what I was thinking 8 years ago when I last updated it. I always recorded Net Worth on my birthday.

So how were my predictions? How close did I come to predicting our net worth at age 40 back when I was 32?

Well, I was off by 30%.

30%....too low!

Yes, we're doing much better than I had predicted. Some interesting tidbits comparing us from 32 to 40:

- we have exactly the same amount of cash on hand now as we did then (we control to a certain number)
- I under estimated how much our 401K matching contributions would grow
- I over estimated how much we'd have in home equity (by 55K)
- I severely under estimated our total portfolio total (by 300K)
- our net worth is two and a half years ahead of schedule (that's a lot, actually)

Not bad, not bad. Just a couple of public University graduates that started early, made investing a priority, and focused on mutual funds. Keep on keeping on. I'd love to jump back in time 10 years and tell all those folks that chuckled at me when I told them about my spreadsheet that I was right, they were wrong, and "stay the course" and "keep it simple" works GREAT.
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Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Postby bottlecap » Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:35 am

Interesting story. Congrats on your success.

JT
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Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Postby Boglenaut » Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:48 am

I found one from 12 years ago and just checked it.

When I adjust for inflation, I overestimated by only 0.11% !! The numbers were nearly identical!

I don't think it was my skill at telling the future.. just lucky. My life changed so much there is no way I could have predicted this except by luck.
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Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Postby Boglenaut » Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:55 am

Ah, but I forgot I bought my house with cash in that time period, so am really doing much better than I thought. :) My prediction was off by one house minus one cheap condo I sold.
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Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Postby BW1985 » Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:59 pm

Would you mind sharing your spreadsheet template? Interesting idea to track net worth by birthday, or maybe on Jan 1st of every year.
"I'd recommend going for happiness and fulfillment over money. Money is easy, and wealthy people spend all their money chasing happiness and fulfillment" -longview
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Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Postby MoonOrb » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:03 pm

That's fantastic. There's such a sense of accomplishment in meeting or exceeding goals. Stay the course!
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Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Postby bogleblitz » Fri Jul 26, 2013 1:49 pm

I suggest people to save their excel / word documents in google docs or Dropbox.com
People should not rely on their hard drives anymore.

Congrats on your estimates.
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Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Postby Easy Rhino » Fri Jul 26, 2013 4:22 pm

getting within even 30% is pretty impressive.
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Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Postby kuttolas » Fri Jul 26, 2013 4:39 pm

May I ask, How did you calculate the predicted net worth?

I started keeping track of net worth around 3 years ago. I calculate this every 3-4 months. I keep wondering, if I am saving enough?
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Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Postby sesq » Fri Jul 26, 2013 4:43 pm

I have in the past found old ones that are about ten years old (same place, old e-mail accounts). I am down about 20% from goal - mostly due to 2008, both the stock and real estate losses. That said, my spreadsheet did not anticipate my compensation growth and in a couple years assuming a "normal" (not 2008) market my stock comp will put me ahead.

I still keep a log with Jan 1 data going back to 2003 when I got married and combined finances.
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Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Postby investingdad » Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:17 pm

kuttolas wrote:May I ask, How did you calculate the predicted net worth?

I started keeping track of net worth around 3 years ago. I calculate this every 3-4 months. I keep wondering, if I am saving enough?

I assumed my salary and my wife's salary would increase three percent per year.
I assumed we would keep making the maximum contributions to 401k every year.
I assumed a fixed, after tax contribution to investment accounts every month.
I assumed eight percent return each year on average.
I assumed a certain increase in home equity every year.

There really wasn't any secret other than keeping spending under control so that we could make our investments every month.

It really just came down to maintaining discipline.
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