Tesla S

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madbrain
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Re: Tesla S

Post by madbrain »

ualdriver wrote:http://www.teslamotors.com/goelectric#electricity

Scroll down about 4/5's of the way down the website. Tesla has a neat map that shows the source of energy for electricity generation in each state in the US. If you click on the subject state, it breaks it down even further. Looks like CA uses nat gas to generate the majority of its electricity- about 55% according to this Tesla website.
That data is from 2009 though and is less current than the 2012 data I posted which shows 43% natural gas.
killjoy2012
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Re: Tesla S

Post by killjoy2012 »

madbrain wrote:The Tesla superchargers are actually using solar energy.
Some are, some aren't - not all locations have the solar canopies. And those that do, they're not 100% solar powered - it's simply augmentation, as feasible, per the weather and time of day. Just clarifying your statement as it could be read as inferring that all power used by the superchargers is 100% solar and therefore free from fossil fuel use... which is not true.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by BigFoot48 »

Elon Musk has released a statement on the cause of the fire. http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/model-s-fire
It is important to note that the fire in the battery was contained to a small section near the front by the internal firewalls built into the pack structure. At no point did fire enter the passenger compartment.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by Valuethinker »

matjen wrote:
madbrain wrote: It's actually 2 systems, one with 28 panels from 2010 for $26k, and a 12 panel addition I made one year ago for $5.5k (see how much prices dropped).
So far $19,300 remain to be amortized. The combined system is currently saving an average of $350 per month, so it will take roughly another 4.5 years to fully pay for itself, assuming grid power prices remain the same. But they are actually going up.
I am no expert on solar and its overall efficiencies but do believe that most technologies get cheaper and cheaper much more rapidly than many expect. Solar seems to be following that path. IKEA is now selling systems in the UK. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/3 ... 16087.html
And that's the truth of both solar and wind energy-- they've dropped down the cost scales amazingly quickly. Since solar cells are a solid state technology, they drop particularly quickly.

To an extent in solar power there is Chinese overproduction-- the next move in panel prices might be *up*. But that's consistent with the history of most emerging technologies-- semiconductor RAM memory prices still double and halve in months. Solar cell technology is also still improving.

There will be lots of institutionalized opposition to what is happening, eg from electric utilities that are now in effect competing with their former customers (coopetition to be precise). But it is happening.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by Valuethinker »

Ged wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:
Solar panels cost one half per kw in Germany what they do to the US, due to a better functioning system of approval and installation, economies of scale, etc.
It's perhaps not well known in the US, but European coal consumption is increasing. And it's rather nasty brown stuff too.

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/ ... enaissance
This is not simple, and in 2015 EU requires phaseout of a number of coal plants due to emissions. Happy to have that conversation offline.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by Valuethinker »

Diogenes wrote:As there will only be 21,000 Tesla owners in the U.S. by year end, and there are only 23 Superchargers at the moment, perhaps 100 at year end, there is no significant fossil fuel savings - likely a negative.
This is due to a good deal of fossil fuels are spent manufacturing, transporting, and selling the cars and batteries which leaves the car in the hole still at the bottom line even if all owners used a home solar charger. I suspect a small percent of the 21,000 owners will be self generating anyway, for lots of reasons.
Just not a significant argument from that angle.
Careful. Think of opportunity cost. 21k sports cars: Porsches or whatever, will have a significant environmental cost to manufacture, as well. And to drive around. So 21k Teslas over 21k other sports cars is a net win.
What IS significant with the car are new technologies that may result in a more viable vehicle in the future. That is the main benefit. Most Tesla purchasers now are in the upper income range where I doubt saving gas is the main motivating factor. Perhaps novelty, being an early adopter, etc. Nothing wrong with that but the car is just not yet a serious contender for the mainstream buyer.
That it's what it is about. I thought Tesla was just an expensive executive toy, but it could be that tackling the market from above, and waiting until the infrastructure was more prevalent and the components cheaper before attacking the mass market, is the way this one is going to go. I wouldn't have thought that until I read this thread.

As I endeavour to remind people, if cars were just about practicality we'd all drive small sized 4 door econoboxes with 1.4 litre petrol engines. And so would our neighbours. But in fact we buy cars to communicate our values, our status, our prosperity, to make us feel better about ourselves. Hence just about any 2 seater sports car in existence. Hence cars like the Porsche Cayenne (even the name is bad)-- an SUV with a 'sports' image for taking the kids to school, for lord's sakes. Or Posh Spice and the new Range Rover. Gotta love those 4WD "Chelsea tractors" tootling around London-- we get a lot of snowdrifts, not ;-). I doubt 90% of those cars ever see an unpaved road, let alone a muddy field.

Of course we ex post rationalize-- it's about safety, it's about driving comfort and experience, of course ;-). But, let's face it, we do this for our egos (in a psychological sense, not the connotation of having a big ego, etc.)-- as a presentation of our self to ourselves and to the outside world. Humans are social apes, and they do things for social reasons.

As to the stock, own the car, not the stock-- that's usually best advice with any bleeding edge anything. It's a long way from 21k cars pa to being a volume car producer or even a high end producer like Porsche.

Where I Musk I'd do a huge share issue and tuck $1-2bn of cash in the bank. Think how fast the cash in Blackberry drained away. One bad product recall and they could be toast.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by LadyGeek »

Valuethinker wrote:Happy to have that conversation offline.
Thanks. Climate policy is off-topic (not actionable, as it leads to contentious disagreements), so feel free to use PM.
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Valuethinker
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Re: Tesla S

Post by Valuethinker »

TomatoTomahto wrote:I'm neither short nor long (and won't be, BRK is my only individual stock), but on today's 11 minute drive on relatively sparsely driven roads, I saw 3 Tesla Ss. In fairness, it's a "car-forward" area of NJ, but still. FWIW, guess what I saw in my neighbor's driveway when I pulled in? Yup.

Anecdotal evidence to be sure, but my next vehicle will be a Tesla X; I got the all-important spousal approval :D
Going entirely on stereotypes (Tony Soprano) the idea of seeing 3 Teslas in one day in *New Jersey* is like, wow.

I assure you I recognize this is blind and dumb stereotyping ;-). After all isn't half of NJ actually a *forest*?

I can't imagine tying up that much cash in a car, any car. You do see Nissan Leafs dropping people at the train station near where I live (outer outer north London)- so electric cars are finding a following.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by Valuethinker »

It is vaguely hilarious though that people rush to say 'Tesla is not clean because look, the US doesn't have 100% clean electricity generation'. In fact if you drove a Tesla in the south eastern USA you would find that the electricity really is not very clean at all.

(This has been thought of. US government website plus various reports by Ricardo PLC, a global automotive consultancy, to the UK government, take you through all the calculations)

When the *alternative* to a Tesla is a Porsche or other sports car.

Which, dear friends, are manifestly *not* clean.

Porsche:

- takes a lot of energy to build a car so we are really looking at the incremental environmental cost of the batterypack v. not having the engine and mechanicals of a Porsche
- cars burn gasoline like the blazes when you drive them (although the latest models are more efficient)
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Tesla S

Post by TomatoTomahto »

Valuethinker wrote:
TomatoTomahto wrote:I'm neither short nor long (and won't be, BRK is my only individual stock), but on today's 11 minute drive on relatively sparsely driven roads, I saw 3 Tesla Ss. In fairness, it's a "car-forward" area of NJ, but still. FWIW, guess what I saw in my neighbor's driveway when I pulled in? Yup.

Anecdotal evidence to be sure, but my next vehicle will be a Tesla X; I got the all-important spousal approval :D
Going entirely on stereotypes (Tony Soprano) the idea of seeing 3 Teslas in one day in *New Jersey* is like, wow.

I assure you I recognize this is blind and dumb stereotyping ;-). After all isn't half of NJ actually a *forest*?

I can't imagine tying up that much cash in a car, any car. You do see Nissan Leafs dropping people at the train station near where I live (outer outer north London)- so electric cars are finding a following.
My wife, when we were briefly considering a Porsche Cayenne, could not resist doing an impression of Carmela Soprano saying "Porsche Cayenne" in a VERY nasal tone. It helped take that car out of the running.

Not to be a stickler, but in that 11 minutes I saw 4 Teslas; 3 on the road and 1 in my neighbor's driveway. In a longer time frame, I would probably see 10 or more (and hundreds of BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, etc.).
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by TomatoTomahto »

I put down a deposit on an X model. Probably 2 years before mine is manufactured.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by Valuethinker »

TomatoTomahto wrote:I put down a deposit on an X model. Probably 2 years before mine is manufactured.
Option value.

Bet you flip it before delivery date ;-).
protagonist
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Re: Tesla S

Post by protagonist »

Waste of money when for twice the price you can have one of these: http://www.shockmansion.com/2013/05/25/ ... k.facebook
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Re: Tesla S

Post by madbrain »

protagonist wrote:Waste of money when for twice the price you can have one of these: http://www.shockmansion.com/2013/05/25/ ... k.facebook
LOL. You mean twice the deposit. That Transition is expected to cost $279,000 !
I got to admit, it's cool . It's not battery operated, though. It has a 23 gal fuel tank. Maybe Tesla can fix that.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by jdb »

protagonist wrote:Waste of money when for twice the price you can have one of these: http://www.shockmansion.com/2013/05/25/ ... k.facebook
Funny. As a Tesla Model S owner I participate in a Tesla owners blog site. Saw this vehicle in a post a few months ago from a Model S owner who tongue in cheek said this would be only vehicle would consider in future other than Tesla. Not sure what that says but it is a cool vehicle.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by protagonist »

madbrain wrote:
protagonist wrote:Waste of money when for twice the price you can have one of these: http://www.shockmansion.com/2013/05/25/ ... k.facebook
LOL. You mean twice the deposit. That Transition is expected to cost $279,000 !
I got to admit, it's cool . It's not battery operated, though. It has a 23 gal fuel tank. Maybe Tesla can fix that.
I'm picturing some drunken driver falling out of the sky in a traffic jam on the Mass Pike and landing on top of my 2006 Element.
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Re: Tesla S

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So I did it, placed my order for a Tesla Model S. Test drove it 3 times, first time to see what the car is like, 2nd time to see how the performance versus regular version differs, & a third time to check out the dimensions & feel of a hard top versus a panoramic roof. This car is amazing every time I test drove it. So I placed an order for the performance version with panoramic roof. Order finalizes tomorrow. =)

As for the financial aspects of it, got an awesome deal from Alliant Credit Union for 1.49% interest over 72 months. I was going to pay cash at first, & actually worked overtime like crazy for the past 1/2 year & had enough money to buy it outright. But with an interest rate that low, I couldn't pass up leveraging it in the markets. Best case scenario, I make some money on my equities & pay off the car with interest & then some for myself. Worse case scenario, I loose some money in the markets, tax loss harvest it, & pay off the car. Either way, no regrets.

Oh, and in my search for a car, this car kicks a$$ compared to the Porsche Panamera or BMW M5 that I test drove. Nothing compares to 100% torque from a dead stop.

Project for next year: roof solar panels to pay for the car's electricity to sweeten the deal.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by ualdriver »

semperlux wrote:So I did it, placed my order for a Tesla Model S.
Congrats! I don't know if you are a "buy used" kind of guy or not, but I was reading over on the Teslamotors.com forum that there is a "non-advertised" list of Tesla Model S cars that are demos/used kept by Tesla dealerships......but you have to specifically ask for it. Some guys on the forum got some really good deals on these "used" cars. And they have never been titled, so they're good for the CA/Federal rebates too. One guy in particular got around $20,000 off a P+.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by jdb »

[quote="semperlux"]So I did it, placed my order for a Tesla Model S.

Yes, congrats semperlux. I now have 11,000 miles on Model S and have enjoyed driving it much more than any other car. You will not be disappointed. Looking forward to getting Model X in 2015 so my wife can drive the Model S full time, we now take turns, whoever has furthest drive gets the Tesla.
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Re: Tesla S

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Thanks ualdriver. I saw that thread too =) I'm game for anything if the deal is right. I checked out their stock car list, but the best discount they could find me was ~$4000 off on a performance plus with 21in rims and air suspension in a color I didn't want. The total would have been more than my order even with the discount so I passed. I think they changed the rules on the stock car deals so the price is not based on when the car was manufactured anymore, but on what it is at current price levels (which is higher ). Also depending on the showroom, they may not be as accommodating switching out things you don't like (eg wheels ).
ualdriver wrote:Congrats! I don't know if you are a "buy used" kind of guy or not, but I was reading over on the Teslamotors.com forum that there is a "non-advertised" list of Tesla Model S cars that are demos/used kept by Tesla dealerships......but you have to specifically ask for it. Some guys on the forum got some really good deals on these "used" cars. And they have never been titled, so they're good for the CA/Federal rebates too. One guy in particular got around $20,000 off a P+.
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semperlux
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Re: Tesla S

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jdb wrote:Yes, congrats semperlux. I now have 11,000 miles on Model S and have enjoyed driving it much more than any other car. You will not be disappointed. Looking forward to getting Model X in 2015 so my wife can drive the Model S full time, we now take turns, whoever has furthest drive gets the Tesla.
Thanks jdb, Congrats on your Model X order. Let us know how it drives compared to the S. I think my wife is up for a car replacement in 5-7 years, looking forward to Gen III to complement the S in the garage. Will be easier on the wallet too =)

Have they finalized the design on the side rear view mirrors versus the slick video camera version yet on the X?
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Re: Tesla S

Post by jdb »

semperlux wrote:
jdb wrote:Yes, congrats semperlux. I now have 11,000 miles on Model S and have enjoyed driving it much more than any other car. You will not be disappointed. Looking forward to getting Model X in 2015 so my wife can drive the Model S full time, we now take turns, whoever has furthest drive gets the Tesla.
Thanks jdb, Congrats on your Model X order. Let us know how it drives compared to the S. I think my wife is up for a car replacement in 5-7 years, looking forward to Gen III to complement the S in the garage. Will be easier on the wallet too =)

Have they finalized the design on the side rear view mirrors versus the slick video camera version yet on the X?
Hi semperlux. The Model X still a prototype, to best of my knowledge the design has not been finalized, expect final design in 2014 with production to commence probably last quarter of 2014 or first quarter of 2015. And yes, it is much cheaper to operate than gas engine car but real pleasure for me is being able to plug into garage wall in evening and never go to gas station. Congrats again, good to have another participant on this site driving a Tesla.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by Jfet »

Wow, Tesla is on fire today (again).

Three fires seems suspicious though.....perhaps some enterprising hedge fund...
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Re: Tesla S

Post by placeholder »

Jfet wrote:Wow, Tesla is on fire today (again).
You mean like "fire sale"?
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Re: Tesla S

Post by obgraham »

Well it just has to be the safest car around: These folks seem able to get out before the fires consume everything and everyone!
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Re: Tesla S

Post by hicabob »

Jfet wrote:Wow, Tesla is on fire today (again).

Three fires seems suspicious though.....perhaps some enterprising hedge fund...
They do seem to get way more than their share of fires after accidents. 3 so far out of 19000 Teslas on the road. I read there are about 6000 accident caused car fires/year in the US so, from the small sample of 3, Teslas would seem orders of magnitude more likely to catch fire than a traditional vehicle. Lithium + air = excitement. Nice cars though.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by Valuethinker »

hicabob wrote:
Jfet wrote:Wow, Tesla is on fire today (again).

Three fires seems suspicious though.....perhaps some enterprising hedge fund...
They do seem to get way more than their share of fires after accidents. 3 so far out of 19000 Teslas on the road. I read there are about 6000 accident caused car fires/year in the US so, from the small sample of 3, Teslas would seem orders of magnitude more likely to catch fire than a traditional vehicle. Lithium + air = excitement. Nice cars though.
However, the first thing they taught us in stats class was that anything less than 20 sample size is not a statistic.

So until we have 20 fires, say, we can't really say whether this is noise, or data. And 3 out of how many accidents?

(I am sure the number isn't 20 to be statistically significant-- it's bigger than that).

How many *petrol* engined cars catch fire after an accident? 6,000 seems a very low number given petrol vapourizes at room temperature and is combustible with a low flash point. I realize fuel tanks have gotten a lot better since Ford Pinto days and there are interlocks to shut off the fuel.

(The Pinto reminds me of the horror of the original Hurricane fighter: a 90 gal fuel tank between the pilot and engine, and *no self healing foam* in it during the Battle of Britain-- not for nothing did Sir Archibald McIndo create the most famous plastic surgery club in the world 'The Guinea Pig Club' out of downed pilots). That was ordinary high octane petrol the Hurricanes and Spitfires were flying on-- if a ME109 20mm cannon shell hit the front fuel tank, you were BBQ meat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guinea_Pig_Club
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Re: Tesla S

Post by protagonist »

I have no interest in buying a Tesla, but this law prohibiting their direct sales in NJ seems ridiculous and anti-consumer. http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/20 ... ule_1.html
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Re: Tesla S

Post by scouter »

Actually, there are about 152,000 auto fires per year (2008-2010 stats). Here's an article that compares that stat to the Tesla fires-

http://www.businessinsider.com/17-cars- ... us-2013-11
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Re: Tesla S

Post by lightheir »

Valuethinker wrote:
hicabob wrote:
Jfet wrote:Wow, Tesla is on fire today (again).

Three fires seems suspicious though.....perhaps some enterprising hedge fund...
They do seem to get way more than their share of fires after accidents. 3 so far out of 19000 Teslas on the road. I read there are about 6000 accident caused car fires/year in the US so, from the small sample of 3, Teslas would seem orders of magnitude more likely to catch fire than a traditional vehicle. Lithium + air = excitement. Nice cars though.
However, the first thing they taught us in stats class was that anything less than 20 sample size is not a statistic.

So until we have 20 fires, say, we can't really say whether this is noise, or data. And 3 out of how many accidents?

(I am sure the number isn't 20 to be statistically significant-- it's bigger than that).

How many *petrol* engined cars catch fire after an accident? 6,000 seems a very low number given petrol vapourizes at room temperature and is combustible with a low flash point. I realize fuel tanks have gotten a lot better since Ford Pinto days and there are interlocks to shut off the fuel.

(The Pinto reminds me of the horror of the original Hurricane fighter: a 90 gal fuel tank between the pilot and engine, and *no self healing foam* in it during the Battle of Britain-- not for nothing did Sir Archibald McIndo create the most famous plastic surgery club in the world 'The Guinea Pig Club' out of downed pilots). That was ordinary high octane petrol the Hurricanes and Spitfires were flying on-- if a ME109 20mm cannon shell hit the front fuel tank, you were BBQ meat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guinea_Pig_Club
I have no plans to buy the Tesla any time soon, but I don't think the analogy is a good one at all, when the crash tests have shown that these cars perform extremely well in crashes and don't spontaneously ignite in their crash testing.
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Re: Tesla S

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https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater
Last week I brought home Stela. Very happy with her and pleased to drive an all American car. Those who are interested are welcome to click above and see my baby :D Cheers with a big Tesla Grin, Amit
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Re: Tesla S

Post by jdb »

amitb00 wrote:https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater
Last week I brought home Stela. Very happy with her and pleased to drive an all American car. Those who are interested are welcome to click above and see my baby :D Cheers with a big Tesla Grin, Amit
Congrats Amit. Good to have another participant on this site get the vehicle. Stela is by far the favorite name, though mine never did get a name. Now have over 17,000 miles. You will not be disappointed, it exceeds expectations.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by amitb00 »

Thanks jdb. Glad to see a fellow Boglehead Tesla owner. Are there more Tesla owners on this forum? I am very active on Tesla official forum and also visit Tesla Motor Club. Are you active there as well? I go with same user name amitb00 there. Cheers, Amit
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Post by Leif »

protagonist wrote:I have no interest in buying a Tesla, but this law prohibiting their direct sales in NJ seems ridiculous and anti-consumer. http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/20 ... ule_1.html
I understand Texas has the same law. It may cost them the chance to have the new Telsa factory built in their state.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by jdb »

amitb00 wrote:Thanks jdb. Glad to see a fellow Boglehead Tesla owner. Are there more Tesla owners on this forum? I am very active on Tesla official forum and also visit Tesla Motor Club. Are you active there as well? I go with same user name amitb00 there. Cheers, Amit
Hi Amit. We are not alone, there are other participants who have indicated they own the Model S. One of the joys of ownership is to have so many owners participating in the two sites you mentioned, I have found them to be a great source of information since before got the car in 2012, in fact usually go to at least one of the sites each week. Have done some posting under same username, jdb, on those sites but mostly use to get information. Welcome.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by jdb »

protagonist wrote:I have no interest in buying a Tesla, but this law prohibiting their direct sales in NJ seems ridiculous and anti-consumer. http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/20 ... ule_1.html
That is exactly what it is, blatant trade protection. A resident of NJ can buy a private jet online from manufacturer and have it flown to Teterboro for inspection and delivery. Ditto for fancy yacht to be delivered to NJ port. Both are far more complex machines. But there is no parochial dealer lobby trying to prevent interstate commerce in those cases.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by protagonist »

jdb wrote:
protagonist wrote:I have no interest in buying a Tesla, but this law prohibiting their direct sales in NJ seems ridiculous and anti-consumer. http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/20 ... ule_1.html
That is exactly what it is, blatant trade protection. A resident of NJ can buy a private jet online from manufacturer and have it delivered to airport for inspection and delivery. Ditto for fancy yacht to be delivered to port. Both are far more complex machines. But there is no parochial dealer lobby trying to prevent interstate commerce in those cases.
These days a savvy consumer can get a car from a dealer for $100-300 over what the dealer paid. So retail markups are often in the 1% range . Imagine if the manufacturers had to compete directly with each other for our online business (fair trade practices), eliminating the middleman, like Google and Apple do when we buy phones. A lot of car dealers would be out of work (waaaahhhh!!) , and the prices of Fords and Chevys (trying to compete for online sales with Honda and Toyota) would likely drop precipitously.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by TomatoTomahto »

amitb00 wrote:Thanks jdb. Glad to see a fellow Boglehead Tesla owner. Are there more Tesla owners on this forum? I am very active on Tesla official forum and also visit Tesla Motor Club. Are you active there as well? I go with same user name amitb00 there. Cheers, Amit
Not yet an owner, but it have a deposit down on a Model X, and will be owner 6xxx of a Tesla SUV (probably in 2015).

ETA: fwiw, we can't pump our own gas in NJ either. Apparently the rest of you great unwashed in other states are content to blow yourselves sky high while getting gas. :twisted:
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by protagonist »

TomatoTomahto wrote:
amitb00 wrote:Thanks jdb. Glad to see a fellow Boglehead Tesla owner. Are there more Tesla owners on this forum? I am very active on Tesla official forum and also visit Tesla Motor Club. Are you active there as well? I go with same user name amitb00 there. Cheers, Amit
Not yet an owner, but it have a deposit down on a Model X, and will be owner 6xxx of a Tesla SUV (probably in 2015).

ETA: fwiw, we can't pump our own gas in NJ either. Apparently the rest of you great unwashed in other states are content to blow yourselves sky high while getting gas. :twisted:
The night attendant at the NJ convenience store is less likely to blow me sky high than I am?

And when was the last time a consumer inadvertently blew up a gas station, anyway? *laughing*

NJ must have some powerful lobbies.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Tesla S

Post by TomatoTomahto »

protagonist wrote:
NJ must have some powerful lobbies.
Lobbying, extortion, bribery, I get them confused all the time. I lived near Louisiana once, and if guess NJ comes in a close second. Everything done by the state government seems to cost 3x what it should, and fwiw, that's not a political comment since it applies to Republicans, Democrats, Independents, etc. We have potholes the size of Teslas, to bring it back on topic.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
amitb00
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Re: Tesla S

Post by amitb00 »

TomatoTomahto: Welcome to Tesla family as well. I am sure you already go to Tesla forums. They provide lot of good information and folks there are also very helpful like Bogleheads but of course on Tesla issues. One of the best cars, which has been ever made. I highly recommend any one who is in the market for a luxury car (> 50K in price) to take a test drive for Tesla. In gas price (assume 12K miles every year) + scheduled maintenance + fed tax credit, over 10 years you will save 20 + 5 + 7.5 == ~32 K. So increase the price of gas car by 32K to do a fair comparison.
Altephor
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Re: Tesla S

Post by Altephor »

Offshore wrote:What excites me is that it has performance, it uses no gasoline, it's big enough to seat my family and the base model is 49k (still a lot). They want 5k deposit, which is fully refundable (1 year wait).

You lost me. A 49k car that gets to 60 in 6 seconds and has a top speed of 130 has performance?
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Re: Tesla S

Post by sschullo »

amitb00 wrote:TomatoTomahto: Welcome to Tesla family as well. I am sure you already go to Tesla forums. They provide lot of good information and folks there are also very helpful like Bogleheads but of course on Tesla issues. One of the best cars, which has been ever made. I highly recommend any one who is in the market for a luxury car (> 50K in price) to take a test drive for Tesla. In gas price (assume 12K miles every year) + scheduled maintenance + fed tax credit, over 10 years you will save 20 + 5 + 7.5 == ~32 K. So increase the price of gas car by 32K to do a fair comparison.
+1
We already own a Leaf, installed solar panels and decided to get a Tesla model S too. Take delivery next month.
Never in the history of market day-traders’ has the obsession with so much massive, sophisticated, & powerful statistical machinery used by the brightest people on earth with such useless results.
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fishnskiguy
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Re: Tesla S

Post by fishnskiguy »

protagonist wrote:
jdb wrote:
protagonist wrote:I have no interest in buying a Tesla, but this law prohibiting their direct sales in NJ seems ridiculous and anti-consumer. http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/20 ... ule_1.html
That is exactly what it is, blatant trade protection. A resident of NJ can buy a private jet online from manufacturer and have it delivered to airport for inspection and delivery. Ditto for fancy yacht to be delivered to port. Both are far more complex machines. But there is no parochial dealer lobby trying to prevent interstate commerce in those cases.
These days a savvy consumer can get a car from a dealer for $100-300 over what the dealer paid. So retail markups are often in the 1% range . Imagine if the manufacturers had to compete directly with each other for our online business (fair trade practices), eliminating the middleman, like Google and Apple do when we buy phones. A lot of car dealers would be out of work (waaaahhhh!!) , and the prices of Fords and Chevys (trying to compete for online sales with Honda and Toyota) would likely drop precipitously.
No way a dealer will sell for $300 over cost. Go look at any dealer's building. New, clean, nice waiting area. Managers are all very well dressed. Lots of dealers sell 30-40 cars a month. There has to be $3-4000 gross profit on a $30000 car. Yeah, they make a profit on service, but not enough to carry the joint. Invoice price is pure BS.

Chris
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lightheir
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Re: Tesla S

Post by lightheir »

fishnskiguy wrote:
protagonist wrote:
jdb wrote:
protagonist wrote:I have no interest in buying a Tesla, but this law prohibiting their direct sales in NJ seems ridiculous and anti-consumer. http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/20 ... ule_1.html
That is exactly what it is, blatant trade protection. A resident of NJ can buy a private jet online from manufacturer and have it delivered to airport for inspection and delivery. Ditto for fancy yacht to be delivered to port. Both are far more complex machines. But there is no parochial dealer lobby trying to prevent interstate commerce in those cases.
These days a savvy consumer can get a car from a dealer for $100-300 over what the dealer paid. So retail markups are often in the 1% range . Imagine if the manufacturers had to compete directly with each other for our online business (fair trade practices), eliminating the middleman, like Google and Apple do when we buy phones. A lot of car dealers would be out of work (waaaahhhh!!) , and the prices of Fords and Chevys (trying to compete for online sales with Honda and Toyota) would likely drop precipitously.
No way a dealer will sell for $300 over cost. Go look at any dealer's building. New, clean, nice waiting area. Managers are all very well dressed. Lots of dealers sell 30-40 cars a month. There has to be $3-4000 gross profit on a $30000 car. Yeah, they make a profit on service, but not enough to carry the joint. Invoice price is pure BS.

Chris
Not Tesla-specific, but there is a very good This American Life NPR radio episode not too long ago about a new car dealership and their month of business.

Suffice to say, depending on how briskly or not cars were selling, they would even sell cars at a thousand or more UNDER the cost price at the end of the month just so they could make their sales quota, as in that case, the national manufacturer quota would give them all a monthly and annual significant cash bonus that could offset a lot of those losses if they made the quota. It got pretty crazy at the end, hard selling to family, friends, etc. just to make that quota.

I'm sure it differs by dealer as how the reimbursement for sales works, but if it's anything like what they reported, there is a lot of room for hungry dealers who are pressed to make a quota, to undersell.

(I doubt Tesla requires this, given they sell out.)
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Re: Tesla S

Post by jdb »

Altephor wrote:
Offshore wrote:What excites me is that it has performance, it uses no gasoline, it's big enough to seat my family and the base model is 49k (still a lot). They want 5k deposit, which is fully refundable (1 year wait).

You lost me. A 49k car that gets to 60 in 6 seconds and has a top speed of 130 has performance?
Don't know where you got info. The Model S performance version takes about 3.9 seconds to go 0 to 60. And that is in a four door car weighing close to 5,000 lbs. Not that I have ever tested the acceleration of course.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by sambb »

it is financially questionable that one could say, add >30k to the price of a gasoline car to account for maintenance, gas, and tax credit,
What about the fact that the 32k could be invested in the s&p 500?
Teslanomics are manipulated by the fans. It also doesn't account that after 10 years, the tesla, which is like a computer, will have low value, as the battery may not work and won't be covered after 8years. A 50k car can only depreciate 50k. A 90k car can depreciate 90k. So whats wrong with a benz or bmw that costs 45k?

Tesla is a great car for the rich with money to throw away on such a nice car. Yes, driven one. No, don't think it gets me to work any better than cars half the price. I don't see how the acceleration matters outside of a race track. There are plenty of cars in the 40-50k range which are nice, fun, and have the same value to a commuter.

I am glad it has been invented, as it forces other auto builders to do better. Emotionally, i think the car can make sense. Nothing wrong with that. But economically? No way.
For fun, i would prefer a convertible of any kind over a large sedan.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by Valuethinker »

sambb wrote:it is financially questionable that one could say, add >30k to the price of a gasoline car to account for maintenance, gas, and tax credit,
What about the fact that the 32k could be invested in the s&p 500?
Note that if we are talking about gasoline savings, our opportunity cost of capital is nearly the risk free rate. Gasoline prices have not tended to fall in recent years: new supply discoveries offset by soaring demand in China and India in particular (Nigeria is not so very far behind in some ways).

So if the risk free rate is 2.5% say over 10 years, then 3.5% is the right discount rate, maybe 4%, for your NPV calculation. That's more or less true of all energy savings.
Teslanomics are manipulated by the fans. It also doesn't account that after 10 years, the tesla, which is like a computer, will have low value, as the battery may not work and won't be covered after 8years. A 50k car can only depreciate 50k. A 90k car can depreciate 90k. So whats wrong with a benz or bmw that costs 45k?
I'd have to see the calculations. All NPV calculations have some kind of residual value assumption-- even if it is zero.

At the US's quite low gas prices (by my standards where gas is c. $8-9 US/ gallon) I doubt the Tesla makes sense on a purely gas savings basis

BUT compare it to a Porsche, etc. That's it's peer group.
Tesla is a great car for the rich with money to throw away on such a nice car. Yes, driven one. No, don't think it gets me to work any better than cars half the price. I don't see how the acceleration matters outside of a race track. There are plenty of cars in the 40-50k range which are nice, fun, and have the same value to a commuter.
You don't think Porsche sells cars based on zero to 60mph performance? It matters, because it's one of the reasons people buy sports cars.
I am glad it has been invented, as it forces other auto builders to do better. Emotionally, i think the car can make sense. Nothing wrong with that. But economically? No way.
For fun, i would prefer a convertible of any kind over a large sedan.
Convertibles I guess it depends on your weather. Where I live (England) weather is mild but often wet and convertible tops get slashed. I don't know too many people who bought a *second* convertible.

I think we have ot understand that if cars were strictly economic, you'd never pay in the US more than $30k for a car. There's nothing you can buy in a car for more money that remotely justifies it once you get above that price, except for very special circumstances.

But cars are a personal statement, a 'positional good' as economists would dub it. It matters what you drive, what your colleagues drive, what your neighbours drive. A car embodies the values you wish to espouse and project.

So, if you like sports cars, and yet you have a 'green' conscience, and you like 'the new new thing' then the Tesla fills that mental niche. The guy I know in the UK about to take delivery is a small business owner, very successful, but with a focus on green products. It's the perfect car to impress his customers (all British men are boys at heart when it comes to cars: see Jeremy Clarkson and Top Gear, one of the BBC's most popular shows).

That's all marketing, to find the price-performance-psychological niche of some group of consumers in the market.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_N52q2goeM

The Tesla Nod. It's a brilliant ad. Captures it perfectly. 2 slightly nerdy guys driving a $90k car. Where do I place my order ;-).
protagonist
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Re: Tesla S

Post by protagonist »

Valuethinker wrote: I think we have ot understand that if cars were strictly economic, you'd never pay in the US more than $30k for a car. There's nothing you can buy in a car for more money that remotely justifies it once you get above that price, except for very special circumstances.
I think that is how most people see cars, whether or not they can afford more. The doctors I know, many of whom are quite wealthy, mostly drive Hondas and Toyotas. The ones who spend more tend to be enthusiasts, who, for whatever reason, love cars. They are in a minority.
Valuethinker wrote:But cars are a personal statement, a 'positional good' as economists would dub it. It matters what you drive, what your colleagues drive, what your neighbours drive. A car embodies the values you wish to espouse and project.
If you DESIGN and BUILD a car, that is a personal statement, I think it is a bit odd to buy a "personal statement" that is also sold to hundreds of thousands- or millions- of others, Plus, when you buy a "personal statement" you run the risk of others interpreting your statement in ways vastly different, and perhaps even antithetical, to what you intend. eg...."Look at that wealthy, cool, fun guy driving the Tesla", vs "Look at that pompous showoff who wasted his money on a Tesla when people are starving". And disparate reactions can come from all walks of life, rich or poor. As Bob Dylan put it: "Know your song well before you start singing".

I think there is only one good reason to buy a Tesla. Because you want one. If you are buying one out of a heightened sense of environmental consciousness, or to save money on gas and maintenance, or to impress colleagues or women or whatever, you are living a fantasy.

And I hope loads of people buy them and Tesla is a huge success, because that would drive the industry to create better and cheaper alternative energy vehicles.
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Re: Tesla S

Post by Valuethinker »

protagonist wrote:
Valuethinker wrote: I think we have ot understand that if cars were strictly economic, you'd never pay in the US more than $30k for a car. There's nothing you can buy in a car for more money that remotely justifies it once you get above that price, except for very special circumstances.
I think that is how most people see cars, whether or not they can afford more. The doctors I know, many of whom are quite wealthy, mostly drive Hondas and Toyotas. The ones who spend more tend to be enthusiasts, who, for whatever reason, love cars. They are in a minority.
Well the doctors I knew out of high school and undergrad (who went on to be meds) bought BMWs, usually, as their first car.

The Range Rover came later ;-).
Valuethinker wrote:But cars are a personal statement, a 'positional good' as economists would dub it. It matters what you drive, what your colleagues drive, what your neighbours drive. A car embodies the values you wish to espouse and project.
If you DESIGN and BUILD a car, that is a personal statement, I think it is a bit odd to buy a "personal statement" that is also sold to hundreds of thousands- or millions- of others, Plus, when you buy a "personal statement" you run the risk of others interpreting your statement in ways vastly different, and perhaps even antithetical, to what you intend. eg...."Look at that wealthy, cool, fun guy driving the Tesla", vs "Look at that pompous showoff who wasted his money on a Tesla when people are starving". And disparate reactions can come from all walks of life, rich or poor. As Bob Dylan put it: "Know your song well before you start singing".
And yet. Millions of people buy cars for just the reason I outline. Of course it's seldom conscious. Nobody thinks 'I am going to show the world what a prat I am'. But lo, in London where snow is a rarity, the locals drive 'Chelsea Tractors' aka Land Rovers, Range Rovers, Porsche Cayennes, BMW X5s (M5s?) etc.

And the young bankers buy sports cars. Yes, even Porsches-- the ultimate loads-a-money car.

This is why there is marketing. Because we are not entirely functional nor utilitarian in our car purchases. Else we'd probably all drive Hyundais or Kias.
I think there is only one good reason to buy a Tesla. Because you want one. If you are buying one out of a heightened sense of environmental consciousness, or to save money on gas and maintenance, or to impress colleagues or women or whatever, you are living a fantasy.
But *why* you want one is often not an economic calculation. And, indeed, why you *really* want one ('geek chic' ;-)) may be something you are unaware of.
And I hope loads of people buy them and Tesla is a huge success, because that would drive the industry to create better and cheaper alternative energy vehicles.
We live in hope. The Parisian rent-by-hour electric car scheme is coming to London, where I think it would work a treat.
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