Tesla S

Questions on how we spend our money and our time - consumer goods and services, home and vehicle, leisure and recreational activities

Re: Tesla S

Postby nisiprius » Sat Aug 10, 2013 9:16 am

Incidentally, now that my memories of 1973 gas lines have faded (I remember driving 300 miles to visit my late aunt, and being reluctant to commit to the trip as our car only had a 450-mile range, until she assured me that she "knew someone" at a local gas station and could use her influence to make sure that I would be able to fill the tank for the return trip)...

...anyway, now that my memories of 1973 have faded, I've noticed that every once in a while I will visit a gas station with a slower-than-normal pump. It usually takes less than 2 minutes to fill my tank, and then I'm good for another 400-500 miles. If I get a slow pump--never timed one but I'm thinking one that takes like 3-4 minutes instead of 2--I feel aggrieved. Impatient. If I see a line at a highway service plaza I'm quite apt to say "Oh, I think I'll just try the next one 30 miles ahead."

Tesla says a Supercharger is capable of "delivering up to 50% battery capacity to Model S in about 20 minutes." ("Up to..." and "about..." and why do I suspect that does NOT mean you can get a full charge in 40 minutes?) Anyway, nominal range is 300 miles, so even assuming there are plenty of Superchargers that implies a 20 minute wait every 150 miles.

I am sure it is possible to get used to this, and adapt to a mellow style where you celebrate the leisurely pace.

CAN you leave your car unattended while it's charging, and enjoy the opportunity to visit the service plaza and kick back with a big old $8.79 plate of cold hard Cajun breading nuggets, with a side of dirty rice that is actually dirty?

I know it is likely to get better with time. And I want Tesla to succeed. But the market for the Tesla S is not the same market as for the traditional American coevolved-with-the-Interstate car. This is "disruptive technology."
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
User avatar
nisiprius
Advisory Board
 
Posts: 24781
Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: Tesla S

Postby jdb » Sat Aug 10, 2013 8:16 pm

nisiprius wrote:Incidentally, now that my memories of 1973 gas lines have faded (I remember driving 300 miles to visit my late aunt, and being reluctant to commit to the trip as our car only had a 450-mile range, until she assured me that she "knew someone" at a local gas station and could use her influence to make sure that I would be able to fill the tank for the return trip)...

...anyway, now that my memories of 1973 have faded, I've noticed that every once in a while I will visit a gas station with a slower-than-normal pump. It usually takes less than 2 minutes to fill my tank, and then I'm good for another 400-500 miles. If I get a slow pump--never timed one but I'm thinking one that takes like 3-4 minutes instead of 2--I feel aggrieved. Impatient. If I see a line at a highway service plaza I'm quite apt to say "Oh, I think I'll just try the next one 30 miles ahead."

Tesla says a Supercharger is capable of "delivering up to 50% battery capacity to Model S in about 20 minutes." ("Up to..." and "about..." and why do I suspect that does NOT mean you can get a full charge in 40 minutes?) Anyway, nominal range is 300 miles, so even assuming there are plenty of Superchargers that implies a 20 minute wait every 150 miles.

I am sure it is possible to get used to this, and adapt to a mellow style where you celebrate the leisurely pace.

CAN you leave your car unattended while it's charging, and enjoy the opportunity to visit the service plaza and kick back with a big old $8.79 plate of cold hard Cajun breading nuggets, with a side of dirty rice that is actually dirty?

I know it is likely to get g with time. And I want Tesla to succeed. But the market for the Tesla S is not the same market as for the traditional American coevolved-with-the-Interstate car. This is "disruptive technology."
.

I smiled when read your comments about gas stations. I have now put almost 9K miles on Model S. Love the performance, handling, accelleration, design, access to HOV lanes, room for five plus five sets of golf clubs, just joy of driving. But single best thing by far? Never having to go to any gas station. Just arrived home for evening and plugged into garage wall outlet, will never go to any gas station with that car. I have not had need yet to use Supercharger since drive less than 200 miles daily but know that there are convenient superchargers when needed, in fact are being installed in high end regional shopping center within 200 mile radius of my base refueling station (ie, home). But life is an adventure and this electric car is one of them. You need to drive it to understand. Great American technology.
jdb
 
Posts: 320
Joined: 5 Dec 2012

Re: Tesla S

Postby Valuethinker » Sun Aug 11, 2013 2:05 pm

nisiprius wrote:Incidentally, now that my memories of 1973 gas lines have faded (I remember driving 300 miles to visit my late aunt, and being reluctant to commit to the trip as our car only had a 450-mile range, until she assured me that she "knew someone" at a local gas station and could use her influence to make sure that I would be able to fill the tank for the return trip)..."


Not to get into a policy discussion but if I recall correctly there's no evidence that the US ever suffered from a shortage of oil in 1973 during the Embargo. However prices were controlled, and that led to shortages (it's one of those canonical textbook cases of the problems of price controls) and thus there was panic buying. A modern gas crisis is more likely simply to see $8.00-10.00 a gallon gasoline rather than an inability to get it.

That said, Britain went through a period when the gas ran out due to a strike by gasoline delivery drivers (to be precise, a wider group of truckers blockaded the key depots n protest against rising gasoline prices and taxes)-- I think that was in 2000. Petrol literally disappeared from the stations over a period of about 3 days, and the roads were absolutely empty, the place was like in one of those 1960s Hollywood movies after the plague or nuclear fallout- -the Army was brought in to pump gasoline for essential services. It was spooky.
Valuethinker
 
Posts: 24369
Joined: 11 May 2007

Re: Tesla S

Postby eucalyptus » Sun Aug 11, 2013 2:25 pm

I smiled when read your comments about gas stations. I have now put almost 9K miles on Model S. Love the performance, handling, accelleration, design, access to HOV lanes, room for five plus five sets of golf clubs, just joy of driving. But single best thing by far? Never having to go to any gas station. Just arrived home for evening and plugged into garage wall outlet, will never go to any gas station with that car. I have not had need yet to use Supercharger since drive less than 200 miles daily but know that there are convenient superchargers when needed, in fact are being installed in high end regional shopping center within 200 mile radius of my base refueling station (ie, home). But life is an adventure and this electric car is one of them. You need to drive it to understand. Great American technology.



What is it about electric cars that invites somewhat self satisfied early adopters? It is indeed nice that an $80-110k car performs the miracles of accommodating passengers and luggage while providing decent acceleration and overall performance. And having a supercharger within 200 miles of home is another great convenience. Someone here needs to buy a Porsche 918 Spyder or McLaren P1 (because you won't be able to buy the LaFerrari) and bask in the soon to be outdated but nonetheless impressive tech.

Like I said earlier, I'm glad there are early adopter/beta testers willing to dive into truly interesting technology. As for me, for the money, for now, I'm willing to drive a traditional old boring $100k car that can take me anywhere at the cost of wasting minutes of my life once a week or so pumping gas.
eucalyptus
 
Posts: 449
Joined: 24 Apr 2007

Re: Tesla S

Postby lightheir » Sun Aug 11, 2013 8:00 pm

I don't even own a Tesla, but I'm glad the early adopters are buying this sort of car and not another gas-guzzling sports car. That's the last thing we need right now, more dependence on environment-destroying, politically destabilizing resources that are inefficient in comparison. It's nice for once to see car technology pushing in the right direction, as opposed to yet another gas-guzzling megahorsepower monster that you'd never even remotely drive up to speed on the streets anyway.
lightheir
 
Posts: 1270
Joined: 4 Oct 2011

Re: Tesla S

Postby Valuethinker » Mon Aug 12, 2013 5:00 am

eucalyptus wrote:What is it about electric cars that invites somewhat self satisfied early adopters? .


But this is true of all new technologies, virtually. The personality of the early adopter is someone who *cares*.

We don't buy cars out of practicality or utility (remembering 90 or 99% of the time, we drive our cars in crowded road environments where speed is not set by the car, but by other cars-- you can just as well get a quart of milk, or drive 10 miles to work, in a Ford Fiesta as a Tesla).

(if you've ever dealt with a sales force about their cars, you'll know exactly of what I speak-- if someone gets a GL model, and his colleague has a DL, watch out ;-)). OK salesforces are particuarly high on 'extrinsic motivation' (lead saleswoman gets a new Cadillac, etc.) but we are all subject to these forces to a greater or lesser extent.

We buy them out of image, how they interact with our own sense of self esteem etc. We then justify the purchase by appealing to performance, ride, comfort, safety etc. In essence we engage in ex post rationalization about our purchases- -shape our tastes to what we have purchased. My Dad was not deprived driving a 1967 Dodge Dart for 10 years-- for what it was, it was the best on the market.

The thing about electric cars is this is a disruptive innovation. Like the PC, or the carphone, we really have *no* idea where it will take us to-- it's a change in what a car is, and how it works. My own view is that electric cars are the ultimate urban 'Zipcar'. Providing transport for an hourly rental fee.
Valuethinker
 
Posts: 24369
Joined: 11 May 2007

Re: Tesla S

Postby eucalyptus » Mon Aug 12, 2013 8:48 am

"The thing about electric cars is this is a disruptive innovation. Like the PC, or the carphone, we really have *no* idea where it will take us to-- it's a change in what a car is, and how it works. My own view is that electric cars are the ultimate urban 'Zipcar'. Providing transport for an hourly rental fee."


I love the cars of the 50s and 60s, especially those designed by Pininfarina - kinetic art. So not all admiration of cars is about image.

I think you are right that a change in "what a car is" - very well said - is here. As much as I love the car for what it has been for my generation, I think the future is self driving cars, perhaps electric. Cars will become portable offices, or salons - it will be fascinating. There is too much inefficiency and waste and hazard in letting people drive.
eucalyptus
 
Posts: 449
Joined: 24 Apr 2007

Re: Tesla S

Postby Valuethinker » Mon Aug 12, 2013 10:07 am

eucalyptus wrote:"The thing about electric cars is this is a disruptive innovation. Like the PC, or the carphone, we really have *no* idea where it will take us to-- it's a change in what a car is, and how it works. My own view is that electric cars are the ultimate urban 'Zipcar'. Providing transport for an hourly rental fee."


I love the cars of the 50s and 60s, especially those designed by Pininfarina - kinetic art. So not all admiration of cars is about image.

I think you are right that a change in "what a car is" - very well said - is here. As much as I love the car for what it has been for my generation, I think the future is self driving cars, perhaps electric. Cars will become portable offices, or salons - it will be fascinating. There is too much inefficiency and waste and hazard in letting people drive.


It's the car we *buy* that signals our aspirations about cars-- at least from the manufacturer's point of view. And which model of iPhone etc.

If I owned a Porsche then I'd probably own about a 1977 Porsche. Bling sufficiently old to be almost vintage.

On self driving cars California will go there first, I think, out of sheer necessity given the traffic density. What will be difficult is how scary that will be, because a self driving convoy on a highway will drive a *lot* closer together than you and I would drive. The windows will have to have that electronic 'blanked in' feature ;-).

At least it will do away with the texting problem ;-).
Valuethinker
 
Posts: 24369
Joined: 11 May 2007

Re: Tesla S

Postby eucalyptus » Mon Aug 12, 2013 10:24 am

Sorry for the OT, but two responses.

First, I've always thought the 911SCs of the early 80s preserved the simplicity of the original design for the car.

Second, I wonder whether automated driving will be phased in, with some streets automated, and some actually driven. Will there be a warning, like the one at the end of an airport escalator, that you need to wake up and start to function?

Hope I live long enough to see these changes.
eucalyptus
 
Posts: 449
Joined: 24 Apr 2007

Re: Tesla S

Postby lightheir » Mon Aug 12, 2013 11:40 am

Valuethinker wrote:
eucalyptus wrote:"The thing about electric cars is this is a disruptive innovation. Like the PC, or the carphone, we really have *no* idea where it will take us to-- it's a change in what a car is, and how it works. My own view is that electric cars are the ultimate urban 'Zipcar'. Providing transport for an hourly rental fee."


I love the cars of the 50s and 60s, especially those designed by Pininfarina - kinetic art. So not all admiration of cars is about image.

I think you are right that a change in "what a car is" - very well said - is here. As much as I love the car for what it has been for my generation, I think the future is self driving cars, perhaps electric. Cars will become portable offices, or salons - it will be fascinating. There is too much inefficiency and waste and hazard in letting people drive.


It's the car we *buy* that signals our aspirations about cars-- at least from the manufacturer's point of view. And which model of iPhone etc.

If I owned a Porsche then I'd probably own about a 1977 Porsche. Bling sufficiently old to be almost vintage.

On self driving cars California will go there first, I think, out of sheer necessity given the traffic density. What will be difficult is how scary that will be, because a self driving convoy on a highway will drive a *lot* closer together than you and I would drive. The windows will have to have that electronic 'blanked in' feature ;-).

At least it will do away with the texting problem ;-).


Now we're def off-topic, and likely will be locked by Ladygeek, but I had to comment on those old porsches-

When I was living in a small bungalow that had 3 adjacent units and a small parking lot next to it, my next door neighbor bought a classic vintage Porsche, probably about that era. Wow it was loud - sounded exactly like a 18 wheeler truck pulled into th edriveway. It was so bad I ended up moving!
lightheir
 
Posts: 1270
Joined: 4 Oct 2011

Re: Tesla S

Postby Valuethinker » Mon Aug 12, 2013 12:54 pm

eucalyptus and lightheir - yahh we are too far off topic

Back to the Tesla. Some day a classic Tesla will be worth something (like the Apple I).

Me I want to join Jay Leno and have a Stanley Steamer and a Dobie ;-). Auto technology made a fatal turn when it went for the Internal Combustion Engine ;-).
Valuethinker
 
Posts: 24369
Joined: 11 May 2007

Re: Tesla S

Postby hicabob » Mon Aug 19, 2013 10:49 pm

Tesla continues to impress to say the least. For a new small car company they do kick butt.

http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/ ... ver-tested
hicabob
 
Posts: 1678
Joined: 27 May 2011
Location: cruz

Re: Tesla S

Postby jdb » Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:40 am

hicabob wrote:Tesla continues to impress to say the least. For a new small car company they do kick butt.

http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/ ... ver-tested

Yes, see article attached as follow up. I had heard rumor that when testing the roof for crush resistance the car broke the metal hoist without roof ever being crushed, as referenced in article. As real world experience the Model S is wonderful to drive in inclement weather since with very low center of gravity and heavy vehicle the tires really grip the road. But do not want to sound self satisfied though this vehicle does exceed expectations.

http://www.thestreet.mobi/story/1201314 ... _ven=YAHOO
jdb
 
Posts: 320
Joined: 5 Dec 2012

Re: Tesla S

Postby Leif » Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:46 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:
I hope the Tesla is more successful in the very competitive automotive industry.

Best wishes
Taylor


Best car ever tested by consumer reports. Perhaps a bit better then the Tucker.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore
User avatar
Leif
 
Posts: 1011
Joined: 19 Sep 2007

Re: Tesla S

Postby TomatoTomahto » Tue Aug 20, 2013 12:21 pm

I have been waiting for the Model X. I usually wait at least a year after a new model/generation comes out (e.g., we have not purchased the new generation Range Rover yet). That said, I am tempted to make a deposit on the Tesla SUV. Safety is a huge concern for us, and I'm sure that the SUV will be as safe if not safer than the Model S.
User avatar
TomatoTomahto
 
Posts: 2578
Joined: 11 Apr 2011

A Tesla in our garage.

Postby Taylor Larimore » Tue Aug 20, 2013 1:20 pm

Bogleheads:

I saw my first Tesla last night charging-up in our condominium garage. It was a 4-door white sedan with a black electric cable going into a socket where gasoline usually goes. A bit strange. I thought the car looked very attractive. However, I was a bit disappointed when I looked through the window at the interior.

Let's hope Tesla is successful and the forerunner to many more environmental-friendly automobiles. I am looking forward to meeting the owner.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
 
Posts: 19732
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Location: Miami FL

Re: Tesla S

Postby Frugal Al » Tue Aug 20, 2013 1:48 pm

Taylor, other than the fact that the environmental friendliness of the Tesla is still subject to debate, I'd be curious to know whether the car was charging from a common community (condo association) outlet or from a specific condo unit's electrical outlet. As I recall you live in a high rise condo. I wouldn't take kindly paying to recharge my neighbor's Tesla.
User avatar
Frugal Al
 
Posts: 1350
Joined: 28 May 2010

Re: Tesla S

Postby letsgobobby » Tue Aug 20, 2013 1:53 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:I have been waiting for the Model X. I usually wait at least a year after a new model/generation comes out (e.g., we have not purchased the new generation Range Rover yet). That said, I am tempted to make a deposit on the Tesla SUV. Safety is a huge concern for us, and I'm sure that the SUV will be as safe if not safer than the Model S.

If Tesla can make a nice, reliable, safe car with half the performance of the S at half the price, I'll definitely be interested. I can't justify ponying up $70,000 or $120,000 for a one person commuter supercar, but $40,000 and no gas costs could be very intriguing. i currently pay $2500 per year for gas for my RAV.

We live in an area with generally low electricity costs and about half the power comes from hydro. Very happy with our Prius right now, but would like something better than a RAV to drive back and forth to work with.
letsgobobby
 
Posts: 6809
Joined: 18 Sep 2009

Outlet box ?

Postby Taylor Larimore » Tue Aug 20, 2013 2:24 pm

Frugal Al wrote:Taylor, other than the fact that the environmental friendliness of the Tesla is still subject to debate, I'd be curious to know whether the car was charging from a common community (condo association) outlet or from a specific condo unit's electrical outlet. As I recall you live in a high rise condo. I wouldn't take kindly paying to recharge my neighbor's Tesla.


Frugal Al:

There is no specific condo unit's electrical outlet in our garage. In this case there was a box on the wall between a general electrical outlet and the car. I could not tell if the box contained a meter. I'll not worry. Our building manager is very astute at catching such things.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
 
Posts: 19732
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Location: Miami FL

Re: Outlet box ?

Postby jdb » Tue Aug 20, 2013 2:52 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Frugal Al wrote:Taylor, other than the fact that the environmental friendliness of the Tesla is still subject to debate, I'd be curious to know whether the car was charging from a common community (condo association) outlet or from a specific condo unit's electrical outlet. As I recall you live in a high rise condo. I wouldn't take kindly paying to recharge my neighbor's Tesla.


Frugal Al:

There is no specific condo unit's electrical outlet in our garage. In this case there was a box on the wall between a general electrical outlet and the car. I could not tell if the box contained a meter. I'll not worry. Our building manager is very astute at catching such things.

Best wishes.
Taylor

I think Frugal Al is a troublemaker :happy . If there were 20 Tesla's in Taylor's condo garage it might be worth watching. As a Model S owner who drives at least 75 miles a day and often much more it takes at most a few hours charging each evening in garage and my best guesstimate (don't ask for my electrical calculation) is about $8 per week. Like running household clothes dryer that amount of time. Need to give us early adopters a little break.
jdb
 
Posts: 320
Joined: 5 Dec 2012

Re: Outlet box ?

Postby letsgobobby » Tue Aug 20, 2013 2:58 pm

jdb wrote:
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Frugal Al wrote:Taylor, other than the fact that the environmental friendliness of the Tesla is still subject to debate, I'd be curious to know whether the car was charging from a common community (condo association) outlet or from a specific condo unit's electrical outlet. As I recall you live in a high rise condo. I wouldn't take kindly paying to recharge my neighbor's Tesla.


Frugal Al:

There is no specific condo unit's electrical outlet in our garage. In this case there was a box on the wall between a general electrical outlet and the car. I could not tell if the box contained a meter. I'll not worry. Our building manager is very astute at catching such things.

Best wishes.
Taylor

I think Frugal Al is a troublemaker :happy . If there were 20 Tesla's in Taylor's condo garage it might be worth watching. As a Model S owner who drives at least 75 miles a day and often much more it takes at most a few hours charging each evening in garage and my best guesstimate (don't ask for my electrical calculation) is about $8 per week. Like running household clothes dryer that amount of time. Need to give us early adopters a little break.

So would you estimate then about $1.50 to run $75 miles? how much is your electricity? Our is 8.5 c/kwh for comparison.
letsgobobby
 
Posts: 6809
Joined: 18 Sep 2009

Re: Outlet box ?

Postby jdb » Tue Aug 20, 2013 3:27 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
jdb wrote:
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Frugal Al wrote:Taylor, other than the fact that the environmental friendliness of the Tesla is still subject to debate, I'd be curious to know whether the car was charging from a common community (condo association) outlet or from a specific condo unit's electrical outlet. As I recall you live in a high rise condo. I wouldn't take kindly paying to recharge my neighbor's Tesla.


Frugal Al:

There is no specific condo unit's electrical outlet in our garage. In this case there was a box on the wall between a general electrical outlet and the car. I could not tell if the box contained a meter. I'll not worry. Our building manager is very astute at catching such things.

Best wishes.
Taylor

I think Frugal Al is a troublemaker :happy . If there were 20 Tesla's in Taylor's condo garage it might be worth watching. As a Model S owner who drives at least 75 miles a day and often much more it takes at most a few hours charging each evening in garage and my best guesstimate (don't ask for my electrical calculation) is about $8 per week. Like running household clothes dryer that amount of time. Need to give us early adopters a little break.

So would you estimate then about $1.50 to run $75 miles? how much is your electricity? Our is 8.5 c/kwh for comparison.

Good question. I knew someone would ask my electrical calculations. I think you are getting a very good rate. Few things more complicated to a non engineer than figuring out FP&L rates, with franchise taxes, fuel charges and different rates for first 1,000kwh and then another for after first 1,000kwh. My guesstimate for blended rate is around 10.5c/kwh. My seat of the pants calculation of actual cost is based on watching difference in household monthly electrical bills after 8 months with Model S, all other electrical usages being fairly constant. Further complication is that I travel out of town by airplane at least several days each month so am not using Model S on those days, and don't drive much on weekends, which decreases average usage calculations. Do not intend to try to work out exact kwh cost math. Bottom line is that used to spend approximately $60 every 10 days or so for gasoline while now spend not more than $40 per month on electricity for same amount of driving. But with cost of Model S am not pretending that fuel cost saving is reason to purchase car. However it is a pleasure being able to refuel in garage every evening and never go to gas station.
Last edited by jdb on Tue Aug 20, 2013 9:24 pm, edited 5 times in total.
jdb
 
Posts: 320
Joined: 5 Dec 2012

Re: Tesla S

Postby ryuns » Tue Aug 20, 2013 3:48 pm

hicabob wrote:Tesla continues to impress to say the least. For a new small car company they do kick butt.

http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/ ... ver-tested


A couple more links on that:
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2013/08/te ... rash-test/

This link actually has more information, but has an obvious slant, so I thought I'd include both.
http://www.treehugger.com/cars/tesla-mo ... stars.html

The videos are fun. Didn't realize one of the tests was to slide the car laterally into a pole aimed at the driver. Ouch.
An inconvenience is only an adventure wrongly considered; an adventure is an inconvenience rightly considered. -- GK Chesterton
User avatar
ryuns
 
Posts: 3315
Joined: 7 Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento, CA. Age: 30

Re: Tesla S

Postby Valuethinker » Wed Aug 21, 2013 6:41 am

Frugal Al wrote:Taylor, other than the fact that the environmental friendliness of the Tesla is still subject to debate, I'd be curious to know whether the car was charging from a common community (condo association) outlet or from a specific condo unit's electrical outlet. As I recall you live in a high rise condo. I wouldn't take kindly paying to recharge my neighbor's Tesla.


As ever Google is your friend ;-) -- the environmental issues are hotly debated and studied to death, people write academic papers about such, IPCC has estimates in its reports based on academic literature, etc.. For those considering the environmental friendliness of a Tesla, the US EIA offers the following calculator

http://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/ele ... ssions.php

If you live in California, as most Tesla owners seem to (?), your electricity is pretty clean. Kentucky would be a different matter.

Of course if you are concerned about local, urban air pollution, Tesla wins hands down.

Again for those interested in the 'life cycle' costs of their electric car, there is a link in this summary to a report by Ricardo, a premier automotive consultancy:

http://www.lowcvp.org.uk/news/1644/lowc ... emissions/

(if you dig down into the ppt of the report, the key bit is the 5th section where they show their estimates by vehicle type).

For example, a typical medium sized family car will create around 24 tonnes of CO2 during its life cycle, while an electric vehicle (EV) will produce around 18 tonnes over its life. For a battery EV, 46% of its total carbon footprint is generated at the factory, before it has travelled a single mile.


For a standard mid-sized gasoline ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle the embedded carbon in production will be around 5.6tCO2e, around three quarters of which is the steel in the vehicle glider. This highlights the importance of deploying low weight, low carbon alternatives to current steels in the ultra-low carbon vehicles of the future.

A similar electric vehicle will have embedded production emissions of 8.8t CO2e, 43% of which arise from the battery. Decarbonising both electricity supply, through renewables; and the production of batteries will therefore be essential for electric vehicles to deliver ultra-low carbon lifetime emissions.


We can rest assured that buying a Tesla is a superior environmental decision to buying your typical Porsche or other high end ICE sportscar ;-).

Conversely, being a less sophisticated car, a Nissan Leaf is probably environmentally more friendly than a Tesla ;-).
Valuethinker
 
Posts: 24369
Joined: 11 May 2007

Re: Tesla S

Postby Frugal Al » Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:49 am

VT, it depends upon whose study you read. I also recall the USDOE supporting methanol, so I'm not sure they are always credible. As I said, it's subject to debate (I too posted a link earlier). I do think we can get greener in the long run with EV tech of some sort. But also as I said earlier in the thread, let's not pretend that a 4600 lb (sorry, about 2100kg :D) vehicle that goes 0-62 in about 4.4 seconds is green--it's not (despite the aggressive regenerative braking available). Yes, compared to a Porsche Carrera it most likely is green. In its current iteration it's a performance vehicle and really is only green when compared to another performance vehicle. Which may indeed be a smart way to test technology and get publicity.

I do think EV owners need to be cognizant of their actions when they recharge their batteries. Although public policy has chosen to support EVs in general, to have the owner of a premium performance car, under the guise of being green, feel entitled to take electricity from the private sector is pushing it. I do know I've seen people prosecuted for stealing less the $700 in a year (estimate $2/day maybe for a charge). And after all, that's $7000 over 10 years, and perhaps $50000 over a lifetime. We argue about expense ratios that are less.

Just to clarify: stealing electricity is apparently OK--stealing cable is bad :oops: . We are not talking about incidental use of electricity, such as plugging in a vacuum to clean a car. We're talking about using the electricity to power our drive to work, using it off the premises. Can I also charge a large battery/inverter and power my household appliances with it? I fail to see the difference. If a private enterprise chooses to allow this that's fine, but it should be addressed.

Like letsgobobby, I'd be interested to see what Elon Musk can do on a scaled down version using the Tesla technology. I'd also be interested in whether or not Tesla can actually make money by building and selling unsubsidized vehicles, rather than selling ZEV credits, as those could dry up: http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/a ... ule-change. Regardless, one can't deny the the Tesla is indeed an interesting product and has done well in an industry that has a high cost of entry.
User avatar
Frugal Al
 
Posts: 1350
Joined: 28 May 2010

Re: Tesla S

Postby letsgobobby » Wed Aug 21, 2013 5:34 pm

I just found our local utility's fuel mix:

x Public Utilities' 2012 energy resources
Hydro........................... 76.4 percent
Natural gas .................. 15.3 percent
Coal............................ 1.2 percent
Nuclear........................ 7.0 percent
Other*......................... 0.1 percent


More than ever, for my locale, driving an electric vehicle seems the environmentally friendly thing to do.

I'm afraid to test drive a Tesla S, I might like it and I can't afford it!
letsgobobby
 
Posts: 6809
Joined: 18 Sep 2009

Re: Tesla S

Postby ryuns » Wed Aug 21, 2013 6:11 pm

Frugal Al wrote:VT, it depends upon whose study you read. I also recall the USDOE supporting methanol, so I'm not sure they are always credible. As I said, it's subject to debate (I too posted a link earlier). I do think we can get greener in the long run with EV tech of some sort. But also as I said earlier in the thread, let's not pretend that a 4600 lb (sorry, about 2100kg :D) vehicle that goes 0-62 in about 4.4 seconds is green--it's not (despite the aggressive regenerative braking available). Yes, compared to a Porsche Carrera it most likely is green. In its current iteration it's a performance vehicle and really is only green when compared to another performance vehicle. Which may indeed be a smart way to test technology and get publicity.

I do think EV owners need to be cognizant of their actions when they recharge their batteries. Although public policy has chosen to support EVs in general, to have the owner of a premium performance car, under the guise of being green, feel entitled to take electricity from the private sector is pushing it. I do know I've seen people prosecuted for stealing less the $700 in a year (estimate $2/day maybe for a charge). And after all, that's $7000 over 10 years, and perhaps $50000 over a lifetime. We argue about expense ratios that are less.

Just to clarify: stealing electricity is apparently OK--stealing cable is bad :oops: . We are not talking about incidental use of electricity, such as plugging in a vacuum to clean a car. We're talking about using the electricity to power our drive to work, using it off the premises. Can I also charge a large battery/inverter and power my household appliances with it? I fail to see the difference. If a private enterprise chooses to allow this that's fine, but it should be addressed.

Like letsgobobby, I'd be interested to see what Elon Musk can do on a scaled down version using the Tesla technology. I'd also be interested in whether or not Tesla can actually make money by building and selling unsubsidized vehicles, rather than selling ZEV credits, as those could dry up: http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/a ... ule-change. Regardless, one can't deny the the Tesla is indeed an interesting product and has done well in an industry that has a high cost of entry.


Citing weight alone seems incomplete. I'm not sure how that's an adequate counter to VT's citations. As to "depends upon whose study you read", I don't think I've seen a credible study that dismisses EV's as less environmentally friendly off-hand. There have been several that state that hybrids are better choice from a lifecycle perspective in many states.

Also, who is "stealing" electricity? If you're talking about someone who sneaks a cord from their car to an AC outlet that isn't an approved charging station and without getting the owner's approval, yes, that's stealing. I'm not sure many people would argue with that. Are you suggesting that this is a common practice? I've never seen it done. I've seen plenty of people charging at approved charging stations, both operated as a public service and those that are for-profit, but never from a random outlet. There's a decent chance you could set off a breaker if you tried to charge from an anonymous outlet, which certainly increases one's chances of being identified.
An inconvenience is only an adventure wrongly considered; an adventure is an inconvenience rightly considered. -- GK Chesterton
User avatar
ryuns
 
Posts: 3315
Joined: 7 Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento, CA. Age: 30

Re: Tesla S

Postby Silence Dogood » Wed Aug 21, 2013 6:43 pm

I visited the Tesla store in the Natick (Massachusetts) mall. There is no way I can afford one but it was nice to be able to sit in the car and check it out. The sales clerk at the store didn't bother me except to ask if I had any questions. I told him I was just interested in looking at the car but said outright that I wouldn't be able to afford it. He was polite and we just talked about the car and the company. He made no attempts to try to sell. Completely different from going to a traditional car dealership.
Silence Dogood
 
Posts: 258
Joined: 1 Feb 2011

Re: Tesla S

Postby kayo » Wed Aug 21, 2013 6:59 pm

Also, who is "stealing" electricity? If you're talking about someone who sneaks a cord from their car to an AC outlet that isn't an approved charging station and without getting the owner's approval, yes, that's stealing. I'm not sure many people would argue with that. Are you suggesting that this is a common practice? I've never seen it done. I've seen plenty of people charging at approved charging stations, both operated as a public service and those that are for-profit, but never from a random outlet.

+1

Let's think about this in round numbers. Let's say electricity costs $0.25/kWh. Plugging into a 110V wall outlet, your EV will capture (round numbers) about 1 kWh in an hour, or about $0.25 worth. It takes multiple days to charge a car at this rate.

This is not to say that taking $0.25 from someone is not stealing, but to point out that EV users are not super motivated to sneak their plug into your 110V socket. There are also people that go to extreme measures to re-use uncanceled postage stamps, but it is more a reflection of a personality quirk than the actual financial reward.
kayo
 
Posts: 59
Joined: 18 Aug 2012

Re: Outlet box ?

Postby madbrain » Wed Aug 21, 2013 7:06 pm

jdb wrote:I think Frugal Al is a troublemaker :happy . If there were 20 Tesla's in Taylor's condo garage it might be worth watching. As a Model S owner who drives at least 75 miles a day and often much more it takes at most a few hours charging each evening in garage and my best guesstimate (don't ask for my electrical calculation) is about $8 per week. Like running household clothes dryer that amount of time. Need to give us early adopters a little break.


You may be off in your estimate of $8/week to drive 75 miles a day on the Tesla S.

Here is the EPA fuel economy page for the Tesla S :

http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do? ... s&id=32557

It states : fuel to drive 25 miles : 9.5 kWh.
So if you are driving 75 miles a day, that's 28.5 kWh per day or 199.5 kWh per week. Actually not insignificant.
Your power cost would need to be only 4 cents/kWh for it to cost only $8 a week. I don't think you can get it anywhere for that cheap.
In California, 28.5 kWh per day would put your electrical usage in the top tier, and you could pay as much as 35 cents/kWh. I would guess that most Tesla S owners also install solar panels to avoid this problem.
madbrain
 
Posts: 2276
Joined: 9 Jun 2011
Location: San Jose, California

Re: Tesla S

Postby madbrain » Wed Aug 21, 2013 7:18 pm

nisiprius wrote:Tesla says a Supercharger is capable of "delivering up to 50% battery capacity to Model S in about 20 minutes." ("Up to..." and "about..." and why do I suspect that does NOT mean you can get a full charge in 40 minutes?) Anyway, nominal range is 300 miles, so even assuming there are plenty of Superchargers that implies a 20 minute wait every 150 miles.


That's right, it does not mean you can get a full charge in 40 minutes. The charge rate from 0% is much faster than the charge rate from 80% for example. I can see that on my Nissan Leaf.
Nissan advertises 0 - 80% in 20 minutes on the Leaf . But the last 20% can actually take 40 minutes on my Leaf. I don't know how slow it gets on a Tesla S.
Of course, you never really want to drive your battery down to 0%, lest you risk being stranded. In practice you might charge from 5 - 10% until the charge rate becomes too slow.

Personally, I hate long road trips and driving more than 300 miles in a day would not be my idea of fun. The 73 miles on my Leaf is too limiting, however. There are some days when I want to drive 130 miles. For those, I take the Prius.

I know it is likely to get better with time. And I want Tesla to succeed. But the market for the Tesla S is not the same market as for the traditional American coevolved-with-the-Interstate car. This is "disruptive technology."


I meant to reply to this earlier.

Tesla has come up with "battery swap" technology that they claim is faster than refueling gasoline with a pump. How is that for disruptive technology ?

There is a video here :
http://www.teslamotors.com/batteryswap

Of course, I don't believe any such battery swap station currently exists, but the technology is there.
madbrain
 
Posts: 2276
Joined: 9 Jun 2011
Location: San Jose, California

Re: Tesla S

Postby killjoy2012 » Wed Aug 21, 2013 7:31 pm

I've never purchased or shorted a single stock in my life, but every oz of my body is telling me to short TSLA.
killjoy2012
 
Posts: 270
Joined: 26 Sep 2012

Re: Tesla S

Postby Randomize » Wed Aug 21, 2013 7:45 pm

letsgobobby wrote:I just found our local utility's fuel mix:

x Public Utilities' 2012 energy resources
Hydro........................... 76.4 percent
Natural gas .................. 15.3 percent
Coal............................ 1.2 percent
Nuclear........................ 7.0 percent
Other*......................... 0.1 percent


More than ever, for my locale, driving an electric vehicle seems the environmentally friendly thing to do.

I'm afraid to test drive a Tesla S, I might like it and I can't afford it!


Your utility uses a lot of natural gas compared to others in the northwest too. Anybody else who has a Northwest public/municipal power source should be rolling 85%+ hydro, 5%- fossil fuels. Sadly, while the great fuel mix in the northwest makes EVs more attractive, the low power costs (6 cents/kWh in my area) don't help their business case at all :|
Randomize
 
Posts: 210
Joined: 5 Aug 2012

Re: Tesla S

Postby letsgobobby » Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:10 pm

do you mean because the costs of the vehicle itself are so high, the recharge costs are not a significant part of the equation?

I read that Seattle City Light uses only 55% hydro. I thought 75% was pretty good.
letsgobobby
 
Posts: 6809
Joined: 18 Sep 2009

Re: Tesla S

Postby jdb » Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:04 pm

killjoy2012 wrote:I've never purchased or shorted a single stock in my life, but every oz of my body is telling me to short TSLA.

This is not a thread about Tesla Motors as a stock investment. Probably not good idea to short stock especially with a stock in a company with many thousands of owners and investors who have drank the Kool Aid and have lots of friends to whom they can give test drives (if you drive the car you will never sell the stock short). It is a great new American company with best vehicle in over a generation. But if you insist on borrowing the stock from a broker and then selling it be sure you understand that there is theoretically no limit to loss when you do a short sale.
Last edited by jdb on Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
jdb
 
Posts: 320
Joined: 5 Dec 2012

Re: Outlet box ?

Postby jdb » Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:52 pm

madbrain wrote:
jdb wrote:I think Frugal Al is a troublemaker :happy . If there were 20 Tesla's in Taylor's condo garage it might be worth watching. As a Model S owner who drives at least 75 miles a day and often much more it takes at most a few hours charging each evening in garage and my best guesstimate (don't ask for my electrical calculation) is about $8 per week. Like running household clothes dryer that amount of time. Need to give us early adopters a little break.


You may be off in your estimate of $8/week to drive 75 miles a day on the Tesla S.

Here is the EPA fuel economy page for the Tesla S :

http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do? ... s&id=32557

It states : fuel to drive 25 miles : 9.5 kWh.
So if you are driving 75 miles a day, that's 28.5 kWh per day or 199.5 kWh per week. Actually not insignificant.
Your power cost would need to be only 4 cents/kWh for it to cost only $8 a week. I don't think you can get it anywhere for that cheap.
In California, 28.5 kWh per day would put your electrical usage in the top tier, and you could pay as much as 35 cents/kWh. I would guess that most Tesla S owners also install solar panels to avoid this problem.

You are correct. I do not drive the Model S much on weekends and am out of town several business days each month so do not average 75 miles per day more than 15 or so days each month. Cannot speak to California rates since am several thousand miles from there but best I can figure out do not pay more than around 11.5c/kwh at peak usage times. So think my admittedly seat of the pants monthly cost calculations in ballpark. Have not done exact calculations since not easy with electrical rates and meters but assuredly much cheaper than gasoline. [Edit: My electrical utility company, Florida Power & Light, now has website regarding electrical vehicles. It estimates a $35 monthly cost for driving 1,000 miles per month with all electric vehicle, which is consistent with my experience. http://www.fpl.com/environment/electric ... cles.shtml
Last edited by jdb on Fri Sep 06, 2013 11:03 am, edited 3 times in total.
jdb
 
Posts: 320
Joined: 5 Dec 2012

Re: Tesla S

Postby Frugal Al » Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:45 am

ryuns wrote:Citing weight alone seems incomplete. I'm not sure how that's an adequate counter to VT's citations. As to "depends upon whose study you read", I don't think I've seen a credible study that dismisses EV's as less environmentally friendly off-hand. There have been several that state that hybrids are better choice from a life cycle perspective in many states.

Yes, citing weight alone is incomplete, but it gets us started on a basic level (full disclosure: I'm more of an old Lotus Elan/Mazda Miata kind of person). The laws of physics of an EV don't change the design requirements necessary to accommodate acceleration g-loads, cornering, and braking for a 4600 lb vehicle (although they do help crash tests :D) . Tire costs are a big one for the Tesla S especially if one is running the 21" performance tires ($2000/set at maybe 15000 miles), but they aren't too different from other performance sedans, which also aren't green. It takes large chassis components such as brakes (the Tesla isn't always in regenerative mode) and control arms. The design parameters aren't necessarily a fault, this is indeed part of the design for a car capable of some very good acceleration and braking numbers. This extraordinary performance was designed in, but it's unnecessary for a green daily driver. Still it's on par with a Porsche Panamera, which most wouldn't consider green either.

So let's dig a little deeper at the real costs and environmental impact. There are relatively significant energy losses even when the Tesla S is just sitting (idle power losses). It's a necessary part of the energy management system to maintain the battery on the vehicle in all weather conditions. These losses are not insignificant over time, and they are compounded by charging efficiency losses which amount to about 15%. It's alleged that these losses aren't adequately accounted for in some mileage cost estimates--anecdotal evidence indicates that might be true as noted in the Tesla forum linked in the the PDF below, which goes into a fairly detailed analysis using real world numbers.

The electrical grid is getting greener, but even taking that into account emissions leave a lot of room for improvement. In the long run EV is probably going to be the way to go, especially if we can continue to improve battery technology. Lithium batteries (and others) are not exactly friendly to the environment and have their own environmental impact which can't be overlooked. Every energy technology has pluses and minuses: we shouldn't automatically think EV=green. While not all EVs or hybrids should automatically be considered green(er), ICE technology is still improving and is getting green(er) too. Having said that, I don't disagree at all with jdb when he says an ICE is old fashioned by comparison. Regardless, the study below claims the Tesla S environmental impact is as much or more than an SUV...today.

I love the Tesla S. If I were in the market for a luxo performance sedan I don't think I'd look much further. Still it's not green, or inexpensive. The $600/year maintenance plan is reasonable for a performance car (it's optional but seems reasonable), and it includes brakes (not tires, though). A new battery will cost $12,000 in 8 years. Then there are the tires to carry a 4600 lb (almost 4800 lb by some accounts) vehicle and get its massive torque to the ground . This is not an inexpensive vehicle to own-- it's a performance vehicle. Still, I suspect it's less expensive to own than Porsche or BMW of similar performance, if you can live with the range and recharging. But it's not really green. That's why I'd like to see what Musk can do with an eye towards efficiency, overall environmental impact, and economy.
http://www.uniteconomics.com/files/Tesl ... _Green.pdf
User avatar
Frugal Al
 
Posts: 1350
Joined: 28 May 2010

Re: Tesla S

Postby TomatoTomahto » Thu Aug 22, 2013 10:34 am

jdb wrote:
killjoy2012 wrote:I've never purchased or shorted a single stock in my life, but every oz of my body is telling me to short TSLA.

This is not a thread about Tesla Motors as a stock investment. Probably not good idea to short stock especially with a stock in a company with many thousands of owners and investors who have drank the Kool Aid and have lots of friends to whom they can give test drives (if you drive the car you will never sell the stock short). It is a great new American company with best vehicle in over a generation. But if you insist on borrowing the stock from a broker and then selling it be sure you understand that there is theoretically no limit to loss when you do a short sale.

Another caveat to shorting the stock: My wife and I have owned 4 Range Rovers in a row (5 if you count the Discovery). Our next SUV will be a Tesla X. Don't bet against a product that changes consumer behavior in a big way.

Whether or not the stock is correctly valued, I don't know.
User avatar
TomatoTomahto
 
Posts: 2578
Joined: 11 Apr 2011

Re: Tesla S

Postby eucalyptus » Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:30 pm

I wouldn't short Tesla, but a big problem medium term for the company is that there are very established brands that could steal their business in a heartbeat. If Porsche, BMW, Jaguar, Cadillac and many others want to take that segment away from Tesla they will do so in short order.
eucalyptus
 
Posts: 449
Joined: 24 Apr 2007

Re: Tesla S

Postby killjoy2012 » Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:37 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:Another caveat to shorting the stock: My wife and I have owned 4 Range Rovers in a row (5 if you count the Discovery). Our next SUV will be a Tesla X. Don't bet against a product that changes consumer behavior in a big way.

Whether or not the stock is correctly valued, I don't know.


What's the success criteria we're measuring Tesla against though? And why is the 'bar' lower for them vs. when discussing EVs from any other manufacturer? My point is that there's currently a lot of marketing buzz, as well as cheerleaders & "fan boys" making a lot of noise about every positive aspect of Tesla, while ignoring or downplaying every issue/challenge/problem that are brought up.

From a stock perspective, TSLA has been solidly in the $20s & $30s for all of 2011 & 2012 (since the company has been public). Today it's > $150 -- 5x it's valuation of just 8 months ago. What has tangibly changed since the beginning of the year to justify that magnitude of increase? :confused

Your example of having owned 5 Land Rovers and now considering a Tesla X is exactly my point. If Tesla is considered wildly successful - a GREAT American company - by only producing an exotic, low production vehicle that's only affordable to the super rich - OK, then fine. But 98% of the US population wouldn't even consider buying a $100k vehicle. And even less would consider buying a $100k EV that can't go >150 miles from the house w/o a ton of logistics planning beforehand... and where the closest dealership may be STATES away.

Frugal Al wrote:In the long run EV is probably going to be the way to go, especially if we can continue to improve battery technology.


It's an interesting debate, but I think fuel cells are the long term solution. CNG may be a stepping stone. EV is also just a stepping stone that isn't very cost efficient or green-justified, at least at the moment.
killjoy2012
 
Posts: 270
Joined: 26 Sep 2012

Re: Tesla S

Postby Jfet » Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:41 pm

eucalyptus wrote:I wouldn't short Tesla, but a big problem medium term for the company is that there are very established brands that could steal their business in a heartbeat. If Porsche, BMW, Jaguar, Cadillac and many others want to take that segment away from Tesla they will do so in short order.


Why would those car companies want to get into that segment? Tesla hasn't made any profits for the past 3 years...actually have they ever made a profit?

If the subsidy goes away or something happens to Musk, then I would short Tesla but it would be too late because the stock would be $20.
Jfet
 
Posts: 1048
Joined: 21 Dec 2010

Re: Tesla S

Postby eucalyptus » Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:46 pm

Jfet wrote:
eucalyptus wrote:I wouldn't short Tesla, but a big problem medium term for the company is that there are very established brands that could steal their business in a heartbeat. If Porsche, BMW, Jaguar, Cadillac and many others want to take that segment away from Tesla they will do so in short order.


Why would those car companies want to get into that segment? Tesla hasn't made any profits for the past 3 years...actually have they ever made a profit?

If the subsidy goes away or something happens to Musk, then I would short Tesla but it would be too late because the stock would be $20.



They are already getting into the segment.
eucalyptus
 
Posts: 449
Joined: 24 Apr 2007

Re: Tesla S

Postby Jfet » Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:49 pm

eucalyptus wrote:
Jfet wrote:
eucalyptus wrote:I wouldn't short Tesla, but a big problem medium term for the company is that there are very established brands that could steal their business in a heartbeat. If Porsche, BMW, Jaguar, Cadillac and many others want to take that segment away from Tesla they will do so in short order.


Why would those car companies want to get into that segment? Tesla hasn't made any profits for the past 3 years...actually have they ever made a profit?

If the subsidy goes away or something happens to Musk, then I would short Tesla but it would be too late because the stock would be $20.



They are already getting into the segment.

'
Hmmm...then this strikes me as very similar to the solar cell industry starting in about 2006. Everyone getting into the new hot thing....party time, money on trees.

How did that end?
Jfet
 
Posts: 1048
Joined: 21 Dec 2010

Re: Tesla S

Postby greensky » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:22 pm

For what it's worth the Model S just received an outstanding safety rating in large part because it's all electric.

The lack of an engine allowed exceptional space for a crumple zone, effectively allowing the Model S to dissipate frontal crash energy over a far greater distance and time — i.e., greater impulse — than any other internal combustion engine vehicle.


Roll-over test: the extreme lower center of gravity caused by the massive battery packs meant that the car could not be flipped using conventional testing means.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2013/ ... the-nhtsa/
greensky
 
Posts: 108
Joined: 5 Aug 2008

Re: Tesla S

Postby madbrain » Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:53 pm

Jfet wrote:
eucalyptus wrote:I wouldn't short Tesla, but a big problem medium term for the company is that there are very established brands that could steal their business in a heartbeat. If Porsche, BMW, Jaguar, Cadillac and many others want to take that segment away from Tesla they will do so in short order.


Why would those car companies want to get into that segment? Tesla hasn't made any profits for the past 3 years...actually have they ever made a profit?


Some people say they have had profits ("adjusted profits") for the last 2 quarters, even though on a GAAP basis, they still have a loss.
I am not sure which items they are excluding to come to this profit or whether they make sense, but these "profits" seem to be what has propulsed the stock higher of late.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-0 ... eries.html
http://www.dailytech.com/Tesla+Motors+P ... e33132.htm
madbrain
 
Posts: 2276
Joined: 9 Jun 2011
Location: San Jose, California

Re: Tesla S

Postby ryuns » Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:16 pm

Frugal Al wrote:
ryuns wrote:Citing weight alone seems incomplete. I'm not sure how that's an adequate counter to VT's citations. As to "depends upon whose study you read", I don't think I've seen a credible study that dismisses EV's as less environmentally friendly off-hand. There have been several that state that hybrids are better choice from a life cycle perspective in many states.

Yes, citing weight alone is incomplete, but it gets us started on a basic level (full disclosure: I'm more of an old Lotus Elan/Mazda Miata kind of person). The laws of physics of an EV don't change the design requirements necessary to accommodate acceleration g-loads, cornering, and braking for a 4600 lb vehicle (although they do help crash tests :D) . Tire costs are a big one for the Tesla S especially if one is running the 21" performance tires ($2000/set at maybe 15000 miles), but they aren't too different from other performance sedans, which also aren't green. It takes large chassis components such as brakes (the Tesla isn't always in regenerative mode) and control arms. The design parameters aren't necessarily a fault, this is indeed part of the design for a car capable of some very good acceleration and braking numbers. This extraordinary performance was designed in, but it's unnecessary for a green daily driver. Still it's on par with a Porsche Panamera, which most wouldn't consider green either.

So let's dig a little deeper at the real costs and environmental impact. There are relatively significant energy losses even when the Tesla S is just sitting (idle power losses). It's a necessary part of the energy management system to maintain the battery on the vehicle in all weather conditions. These losses are not insignificant over time, and they are compounded by charging efficiency losses which amount to about 15%. It's alleged that these losses aren't adequately accounted for in some mileage cost estimates--anecdotal evidence indicates that might be true as noted in the Tesla forum linked in the the PDF below, which goes into a fairly detailed analysis using real world numbers.

The electrical grid is getting greener, but even taking that into account emissions leave a lot of room for improvement. In the long run EV is probably going to be the way to go, especially if we can continue to improve battery technology. Lithium batteries (and others) are not exactly friendly to the environment and have their own environmental impact which can't be overlooked. Every energy technology has pluses and minuses: we shouldn't automatically think EV=green. While not all EVs or hybrids should automatically be considered green(er), ICE technology is still improving and is getting green(er) too. Having said that, I don't disagree at all with jdb when he says an ICE is old fashioned by comparison. Regardless, the study below claims the Tesla S environmental impact is as much or more than an SUV...today.

I love the Tesla S. If I were in the market for a luxo performance sedan I don't think I'd look much further. Still it's not green, or inexpensive. The $600/year maintenance plan is reasonable for a performance car (it's optional but seems reasonable), and it includes brakes (not tires, though). A new battery will cost $12,000 in 8 years. Then there are the tires to carry a 4600 lb (almost 4800 lb by some accounts) vehicle and get its massive torque to the ground . This is not an inexpensive vehicle to own-- it's a performance vehicle. Still, I suspect it's less expensive to own than Porsche or BMW of similar performance, if you can live with the range and recharging. But it's not really green. That's why I'd like to see what Musk can do with an eye towards efficiency, overall environmental impact, and economy.
http://www.uniteconomics.com/files/Tesl ... _Green.pdf


Some good points and an interesting report. I'm also engaged because I think it's interesting science. The overwhelming point is that new ICE/hybrids/EVs are all fairly clean by some measure, and none is the clear winner that it makes an overwhelming difference.

But since I do find it interesting, I'll continue. That report does correct some assumptions that are commonly made in other comparisons, but, in my opinion, makes a few other mistakes. They don't assume lifecycle environmental impact of all fuels. This is substantial for gasoline. Also, increased amount of criteria pollutants, while interesting, doesn't reflect the fact that power plants are cited specifically to mitigate the impacts of such pollutants (CO, NOx, SOx, O3), while vehicles are not. (That said, especially as other states adopt California emission standards, the amount of criteria pollutants from new vehicles is negligible. Cars do last a long time, and you'll never find an EV that fails to pass a smog check, so there's some value to the guarantee that their "tailpipes" stay clean.) Finally, with all pollutants (including, to a lesser extent CO2), most of the issue stems from coal power. We've stopped building these and we're more likely to continue to shut them down. They're also base load plants, so you could make the case that incremental loads on the grid are unlikely to be served by incremental coal consumption. Though at the same time, most folks charge at night, while coal plants are still running, so EV could theoretically cause them to increase their output a small amount.

Here's another interesting study on the subject, but which only looks at GHG emissions: http://www.climatecentral.org/news/a-ro ... 2013-16318
An inconvenience is only an adventure wrongly considered; an adventure is an inconvenience rightly considered. -- GK Chesterton
User avatar
ryuns
 
Posts: 3315
Joined: 7 Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento, CA. Age: 30

Re: Tesla S

Postby Frugal Al » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:21 pm

ryuns wrote:Here's another interesting study on the subject, but which only looks at GHG emissions: http://www.climatecentral.org/news/a-ro ... 2013-16318

Thanks for that article. Yes, at least some hybrids are greener.
ryuns wrote:Also, who is "stealing" electricity? If you're talking about someone who sneaks a cord from their car to an AC outlet that isn't an approved charging station and without getting the owner's approval, yes, that's stealing. I'm not sure many people would argue with that. Are you suggesting that this is a common practice? I've never seen it done. I've seen plenty of people charging at approved charging stations, both operated as a public service and those that are for-profit, but never from a random outlet. There's a decent chance you could set off a breaker if you tried to charge from an anonymous outlet, which certainly increases one's chances of being identified


It has been identified as a concern by Col. Mulbury of the U.S. Army, in Hawaii (expensive electricity). The article starts part way down the page, titled: Unauthorized Charges. I'm certain it will become more of a problem as numbers increase. Of course none of the well-heeled folks here would ever pilfer electricity :D. http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthre ... ling/page2

The Army warns electric car owners that plugging in a private vehicle at a government outlet is illegal
The question was posed on an Internet forum for Chevy Volt owners: Is it OK to charge your electric car's battery from an open outlet at, say, a public university parking garage?
Col. Douglas Mulbury, commander of U.S. Army Garrison Hawaii, will answer that question for you.
Taking government-procured electricity from any building to charge a privately owned vehicle is illegal, he said.


The same article indicates as least one condo association is concerned as well:
A condominium board in Ottawa fought a resident who was charging his Chevy Volt via a condo outlet, even though the car's owner, Mike Nemat, said it used only about a $1 a night in electricity, CBC News reported in January.
All the residents share the electricity bill, and the condo board said it should not pay for fuel for electric cars because it does not pay for fuel for other cars.
[And that's a much smaller battery than the Tesla has]
User avatar
Frugal Al
 
Posts: 1350
Joined: 28 May 2010

Re: Tesla S

Postby BigFoot48 » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:52 pm

We charged our C-Max Energi at two motels on a recent trip. The first, in a remote location, had a manager we couldn't find so we didn't ask, but at the second the desk clerk was more than happy to let us plug in ("How cool!", she said) and spent some time finding a suitable outlet. A recharge on ours takes about 6kWh. Generally I decided it was more trouble than it was worth as I also had to secure the charging cable with a lock through the rim. When post-style EV chargers are more available it will be a much more pleasant experience.
Retired | Two-time Top-10 Diehard S&P500 Picker; Nine-Time Loser
User avatar
BigFoot48
 
Posts: 2045
Joined: 20 Feb 2007
Location: Arizona

Re: Tesla S

Postby Frugal Al » Fri Aug 23, 2013 6:05 am

Bigfoot, I don't blame you for plugging in if your can't find the right person to ask. As these vehicles become more plentiful it will become more of a problem, and the cost of some of the charging stations is high. The problem for a PHEV driver is that if they are plugging in without permission or authorization, they are saying, in effect, "Stealing your electricity is cheaper than burning my gasoline." It's a slippery slope.
User avatar
Frugal Al
 
Posts: 1350
Joined: 28 May 2010

Re: Tesla S

Postby letsgobobby » Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:51 am

Frugal Al wrote:Bigfoot, I don't blame you for plugging in if your can't find the right person to ask. As these vehicles become more plentiful it will become more of a problem, and the cost of some of the charging stations is high. The problem for a PHEV driver is that if they are plugging in without permission or authorization, they are saying, in effect, "Stealing your electricity is cheaper than burning my gasoline." It's a slippery slope.

On the other hand, I don't ask the motel's permission to recharge my phone, iPad, and laptop. And my wife uses her own jet powered hair dryer without permission, too.
letsgobobby
 
Posts: 6809
Joined: 18 Sep 2009

PreviousNext

Return to Personal Consumer Issues

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bill1958, Bing [Bot], bobinberea, Epsilon Delta, IMD801, JimDawg, SHB, victorb and 96 guests