Sobering news re: Volcanic Ash Cloud

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Sobering news re: Volcanic Ash Cloud

Post by djw »

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100417/D9F4UF1O0.html

"Hundreds of weary British travelers were forced to queue up in France for ferry tickets, and P&O Ferries said it was inundated by thousands of calls from stranded air passengers. Ferry crossings between Britain and Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands were also fully booked, while a Virgin Holidays Cruises phone operator said dozens of people have called in to ask about trans-Atlantic crossings to New York aboard the Queen Mary 2 cruiser.

A British taxi firm said it pocketed a fortune from driving a group of clients hundreds of miles to Switzerland. International trains on the continent beefed up services, and the Eurostar was running eight supplementary trains Sunday.

Shoppers were warned Saturday that continued flight bans could spark shortages of imported fresh fruit and vegetables.

"There are no shortages yet, but we may start to see certain ranges affected if this carries on," said Christopher Snelling, head of global supply chain policy for the Freight Transport Association."

"...in 1821, the same volcano managed to erupt for more than a year."

"One of the worst was the 1783 eruption of the Laki volcano [also in Iceland], which spewed a toxic cloud over Europe, killing tens of thousands."
Last edited by djw on Sun Apr 18, 2010 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by djw »

See also the thread: a reminder regarding black swans
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Post by djw »

The way the news reports are trending, I'm glad I have no plans to get on an airplane for at least 6 months.

Apparently there's a history of a second, much larger, nearby volcano called "Katla" being triggered by the one that's currently erupting. If that one blows, it'll be another Mount St. Helens in size and scope.

Since Mount St. Helens blew up, it's been relatively calm, so we can hope that once Katla blows and the resulting HUGE dust cloud disperses, the airlines may be able to get back to normal without constantly worrying about what's coming next.

I'm beginning to suspect that the economic impact (and resulting impact on world stock prices) may be a lot LARGER re: the volcanic eruption than it will be re: news about Goldman Sachs.
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Post by djw »

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... A5oddACnL4

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- European airlines canceled more than 77 percent of their flights today as most of the continent’s northern and central nations remained closed to air traffic because of volcanic ash. Accuweather predicted little change until April 22.

“Expect ongoing interruptions for the next four or five days,” Teitur Atlason, at the Icelandic meteorological office, said in a telephone interview today. “The eruption is still in full swing, and the volcano is spewing pretty dark ashes as high into the air as 5 to 6 kilometers.”

“The jet stream winds, which extend from 10,000 feet up to 40,000 feet, show no signs of change through Wednesday,” Accuweather said in a statement. “Any ash plume that is released from the Eyjafjall volcano in Iceland will continue to threaten northern Europe and the British isles.”

“The (air) current in the height the ashes are reaching remains a strong northwesterly wind, which blows the ashes to Scotland and South Scandinavia,” Atlason of the Icelandic Met Office said. “Once the ashes reach those places other more complex wind systems take over, which spread the ashes across North and Central Europe. This will continue until Wednesday.”

Volcanic eruptions may continue for months, curtailing European air traffic when the ash reaches the region, said Sigrun Hreinsdottir, a geophysicist at the University of Iceland in Reykjavik. “From what we’ve seen, it could erupt, pause for a few weeks, and then possibly erupt again.”

The last eruption of Eyjafjallajökull [the volcano that's erupting right now] in December 1821 continued until January 1823.

“We really don’t know if this eruption is going to last as long as the previous one, but we can’t say it’s not a possibility,” Larsen said by telephone.

“The problem here is we have magma interacting with glacier ice, and that leads to explosions,” Hreinsdottir said. “That causes the material to go much higher in the air.”

Mike Burton, a researcher at the Italian National Vulcanology Institute who has studied the ash from the latest explosion, said it presents more of a threat to aircraft than would the dust from a typical eruption.

“It’s likely that ash production will continue long after all the ice is melted in the volcano as this kind of magma can produce ash without water,” Burton said by telephone. “Fine ash is easier to transport long distances and goes higher into the atmosphere. This is not good news for flights.”
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Post by djw »

Economic impact

http://in.news.yahoo.com/137/20100418/3 ... if-as.html

The economic impact of the volcanic cloud halting flights across Europe will increase sharply the longer disruption continues, forcing holiday cancellations, delaying deliveries and reducing jet fuel demand.

African exporters of flowers and vegetables by air to European supermarkets, technology companies relying on "just-in-time" deliveries of components, event organisers and others could all feel the pinch.

Economists say so far they have not changed their models or predictions for European growth, hoping normal service could resume this week. But in a worst-case scenario in which the ash cloud closes European airspace for months, one economist estimates lost travel and tourism revenue alone could knock 1-2 percentage points off regional growth as long as it lasts. European growth had been predicted at 1-1.5 percent for 2010.

"That would mean a lot of European countries wouldn't get any growth this year," said Vanessa Rossi, senior economic fellow at Chatham House. "It would literally stifle the recovery. But the problem is it is incredibly hard to predict what will happen. Even the geologists can't tell us."

The event is a classic example of a "Black Swan", a totally unexpected event with widespread impact, impossible to predict and hard to model.

The key questions now are whether the volcano keeps erupting and spewing ash into the atmosphere, where the wind takes the ash and how long the ash already in the sky remains over Europe.

For map of ash cloud movement and airline routes, click:

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/RNGS ... R/ASH4.jpg

Vulcanologists and meteorologists say they cannot immediately answer those questions as volcanoes are particularly unpredictable. They warn the last time the volcano under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier erupted, it lasted more than a year. But it may not continue to spew ash for the entire eruption.

Most had originally expected the cloud and disruption would linger over Europe for several days.

Travel and tourism accounts for around five percent of global gross domestic product -- some $3 trillion -- with Europe accounting for a third of that, much of it accruing over the summer months. Not all of this will be lost, but Rossi estimated a prolonged shutdown could cost up to $5-10 billion dollars a week in the industry.

But the impact will likely be wider. Most of the world's goods by volume may move by sea and land, but transport analysts estimate 40 percent by value moves by air.

NO "JUST-IN-TIME"

The world's biggest air freight operators say they are moving what they can by road and looking at contingency plans of using southern European airports that are outside the cloud. But they say deliveries will be sharply affected.

"If your just-in-time operation is depending on parts that come from Asia or the U.S. or Africa or the Mideast... , you just can't get it," said United Parcel Service Inc spokesman Norman Black.

"DHL and UPS use airhubs in Germany, Fedex Corp relies on an airhub in France and all that airspace is closed. There's just not an option right at the moment while we all wait and see how long this is going to take."

Pharmaceutical firms are heavy users of air freight, but most said on Friday they had enough stocks to avoid a short-term crunch. Last-minute high-tech imports between Asia and the United States are flown over the Pacific and will be unaffected, but European firms may feel the pinch.

Most food and beverage deliveries move by sea, but some premium products such as the finest Scotch whiskeys -- retailing at hundreds of dollars a bottle in China or Japan -- can no longer be moved.

That could mean the most vulnerable national economies to the shutdown could prove to be African producers of fruit and flowers that will swiftly perish if not shipped to market.

"Kenya, as the largest supplier of cut flowers to Europe, where tourism is also an important sector, is likely to be the most vulnerable; followed by the East African soft commodity producers more generally," said Standard Chartered chief Africa economist Razia Khan, herself stranded in Botswana by a cancelled flight.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates airlines are losing $200 million a day from the shutdown, which has caused chaos well beyond the immediate European airspace closed. Most airlines will be uninsured for this loss, although insurer Munich Re said on Friday it would consider offering cancellation insurance in future should the crisis produce demand.

NO MONEY FOR GOVERNMENT SUPPORT

European airline shares dipped on Friday and will likely fall sharply if it appears disruption will be prolonged. Even if the wind shifts, ash clouds over the Atlantic and Arctic would continue to disrupt flights to North America and Asia.

Analysts estimate the shutdown is reducing demand for jet fuel by some 2 million barrels a day, last week undermining jet fuel prices. This could filter into the wider oil price if the shutdown continues.

The wider travel and tourism industry so far has suffered less. The problem will be if the shutdown lasts long enough to deter future travel.

"Right now the hotels have people who are stranded. If after a while, no new people arrive, that hurts the hospitality industry, " said Rajeev Dhawan, director, Economic Forecasting Center at the Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University.

Even if the initial cloud clears, vulcanologists warn the same thing could happen again for as long as the eruption under the glacier lasts, further threatening struggling firms.

"If this had happened a couple of years ago, governments would have had the money to step in and provide support," she said. "But right now, after the crisis, that money isn't there. This could be enough to push some weaker airlines and travel companies to the wall. It couldn't have happened at a worse time. On the other hand, it could all clear overnight and we could be back to normal by next week."

It could be worse. Scientists say this eruption looks unlikely to impact agriculture outside Iceland itself, in contrast to the much larger 1783 Laki eruption, also on Iceland.

"They were famines in France due to crop failure and this might well have been a factor in the French Revolution," said Prof Steve Sparks, director of the Bristol Environmental Risk Research Centre at Bristol University.

(Additional reporting by Tim Hepher, William Schomberg, Helen Chernikoff; editing by Janet McBride)
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Post by Indices »

Europe has a great train system, ample ports, and wonderful highways (Autobahn for example). They'll be fine after a slight adjustment. With all the lost revenue to European air carriers, the US ones might make a bit more money. Where the media sees death, destruction and the end of the world, I see business as usual.

As John Bogle is fond of stating: "Stay the course."
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Post by djw »

Is it just me, or does the following news story remind you of an early scene in the movie "Jaws" in which the Amity Chamber of Commerce and the Mayor demand that the police chief reopen the beaches immediately?
(see paragraphs 8 - 11 below)

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20100418/t ... b2fc3.html

Airlines query flight ban as travel misery spreads
AFP - Monday, April 19

LONDON (AFP) - – A cloud of volcanic ash tightened its grip on Europe's skies on Sunday, but amid a fourth day of global travel misery airlines carried out test flights and pressed for passenger jets to fly again.

Most of Europe remains a virtual no-fly zone, with about 30 countries closing or restricting airspace amid safety fears over the sulphurous dust coming from an Icelandic volcano.

Europe's three biggest airports -- London Heathrow, Paris-Charles de Gaulle and Frankfurt -- remained shut, leaving passengers stranded around the world as a global backlog grows.

More than 7,000 transit passengers have been stranded in the Gulf states of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, airlines said. Dubai-based Emirates Airlines said it was "providing accommodation and three meals a day for more than 5,000 ... transit passengers at a cost of more than one million dollars per day." Related article: EU probes economic fallout from travel chaos

In Singapore, Changi airport and airlines have set aside special areas for stranded passengers to eat and sleep and are trying to provide them with free meals, sleeping bags and even tours of the city.

New closures and restrictions were announced or extended into Monday with only a few airports allowed to briefly reopen in breaks in the cloud.

Amid estimates that airlines are losing more than 200 million dollars (150 million euros) a day, Dutch airline KLM staged the first international test flight Sunday, one day after a jet "safely" took off and landed in a domestic airspace.

Germany's Lufthansa, Air France and an Italian aviation authority plane also carried out test flights amid mounting airline criticism of the government action to close down airspace.

Air France said there were no problems with its first test.

Experts have said the particles could clog jet engines. But Lufthansa and Air Berlin, said the decision to ground jets was ordered without proper testing and that their aircraft showed no signs of damage after the flights. List of European countries closing their airspace

"KLM hopes to resume operations as swiftly as possible, so that passengers can be brought to their destination," the Dutch airline said.

The impact of the shutdown is likely to exceed the huge losses after the September 11, 2001 attacks, the International Civil Aviation Organisation has said.

The enormous shroud of fine mineral dust particles now stretches from the Arctic Circle in the north to the French Mediterranean coast in the south, and from Spain into Russia.

"This is one of the most serious disruptions we have seen to air travel and our first priority must be the safety of passengers," British Prime Minister Gordon Brown told BBC television.

"The most important issue is making sure that it is safe to fly. Flights are going up to check whether it is safe to fly -- certainly not today -- but there will be further announcements made."

Britain extended a ban on all flights in its airspace until Monday, while Ireland warned a new extension in restrictions was "likely" due to the prevailing wind. Related article: Ash cloud to remain 'for several days'

The closures stopped world leaders, including US President Barack Obama, from flying to the Polish city of Krakow for the state funeral of President Lech Kaczynski and his wife Maria.

Germany and most Scandinavian and central European countries also kept the flight ban in place on Sunday, extending the biggest airspace shutdown since World War II.

Germany and France allowed some regional airports to reopen. Norway also eased its restrictions. While northern Italy stayed in the no-fly zone, Spain allowed seven airports that were closed to reopen again.

The cloud is now heading toward Greece and into Russia however, weather experts said.

With hundreds of thousands of travellers stranded around the globe, prevailing winds blowing the massive cloud toward Europe could go on until the middle of the week, Iceland's Meteorological Office warned.

Some governments, such as Britain and France, have set up emergency cells to work out how to get tens of thousands of stranded nationals home.

Some 17,000 flights in European airspace on Saturday were cancelled, said Eurocontrol, which coordinates air traffic control in 38 nations. Only about 5,000 flights were able to operate, the agency said.

Out of 337 scheduled flights by US carriers to and from Europe, 282 were cancelled Saturday, the Air Transport Association of America said. Related article: Potential health risks from volcano ash

Iceland's Eyjafjoell volcano erupted on Wednesday, sending ash drifting towards Europe.

EU transport ministers are to hold talks on the volcanic cloud on Monday with some officials expecting demands for special aid for airlines. EU Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso said he had ordered a full study to assess the impact of the situation created by the volcanic ash cloud on the economy, and the air travel industry in particular."
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Post by baw703916 »

Indices wrote:Europe has a great train system, ample ports, and wonderful highways (Autobahn for example). They'll be fine after a slight adjustment.
I think the U.S. would be much worse off in a similar situation There really isn't a viable way of getting from, say, Atlanta to San Francisco that doesn't involve air travel.

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Post by livesoft »

baw703916 wrote:I think the U.S. would be much worse off in a similar situation There really isn't a viable way of getting from, say, Atlanta to San Francisco that doesn't involve air travel.

Brad
LOL! I guess you have never been a poor college student driving cross-country? I would guess that the trucking and rail industries would have issues with your statement if it applies to moving something other than humans.
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Post by neverknow »

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Post by flowerbuyer »

Well, this is one thing we can't control.....volcanoes! We have a long-planned trip to Europe with a river cruise down the Rhine on April 28th. As disappointed as we will be, there is nothing we can do about it if we can't get there from here. Unfortunately, didn't take out insurance on the flights, for which we splurged and paid business class fares. Stupidity still is still alive and well in our household.
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Post by djw »

Neverknow, I'm not going to worry about any impact on the global climate unless we hear that the Katla volcano in Iceland, rumored to be potentially as large or larger than Mount St. Helens, blows its top. News reports claim that when the current volcano has erupted in the past, it has often triggered Katla... we'll have to wait and see on that one.

I'm just happy to see that North America appears to be upwind, at least so far. When there's enough ash in the atmosphere to completely circle the globe and come at us from our Pacific side, or if a wind reversal blows the ash directly at us, then I can worry about that.

I watched a TV special about the so-called super volcano that lies beneath Yellowstone and may erupt some time in the next 10,000 years... or maybe next Wednesday. The ash cloud simulations included in that special didn't seem to reach either of my homes near the east coast, so I'm not losing any sleep over that potential threat either.
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Post by neverknow »

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Post by Pacific »

The horror of it all. Imagine being forced to stay around home reading a good book. Or, tending your own garden. Or, eating peas from a CAN!!!
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Post by djw »

flowerbuyer, if the flight is canceled, I'd expect the airline to give you a full refund. Even if it isn't, wait a few days and then check their web site for any revisions in their cancelation policy. Situations like this often trigger a temporary relaxation of cancelation penalties, even for those who didn't buy trip cancellation insurance.
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Post by neverknow »

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Post by djw »

neverknow, the Chunnel accomodates cars as well as trains.

According to Wikipedia: "Eurotunnel Shuttle roll-on roll-off shuttle service for road vehicles" allows you to load your car onto a train and drive it off at the other end.

"Initially 38 Le Shuttle locomotives were commissioned, working in pairs with one at each end of a shuttle train. The shuttles have two separate halves: single and double deck. Each half has two loading/unloading wagons and twelve carrier wagons. Eurotunnel's original order was for nine tourist shuttles."

"HGV shuttles also have two halves, with each half containing one loading wagon, one unloading wagon and 14 carrier wagons. There is a club car behind the leading locomotive. Eurotunnel originally ordered six HGV shuttles rakes."
Last edited by djw on Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by neverknow »

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Post by JordanIB »

I just hope it clears by July, when I have a trip to Ireland/England planned.
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Post by roblpm »

channel tunnel only accommodates cars in that they go on special trains! you can't drive through it!

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Post by baw703916 »

livesoft wrote:
baw703916 wrote:I think the U.S. would be much worse off in a similar situation There really isn't a viable way of getting from, say, Atlanta to San Francisco that doesn't involve air travel.

Brad
LOL! I guess you have never been a poor college student driving cross-country? I would guess that the trucking and rail industries would have issues with your statement if it applies to moving something other than humans.
In fact I have driven across country as a college student. But imagine if everybody who normally flies were to drive instead. There is also the time involved, a three day business trip from LA to Chicago becomes very difficult if you don't fly.

Our rail system is in fact very efficient for freight. But the population density and distances make flying much more efficient for passenger travel in most of the country.

Brad
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Post by neverknow »

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Post by Valuethinker »

flowerbuyer wrote:Well, this is one thing we can't control.....volcanoes! We have a long-planned trip to Europe with a river cruise down the Rhine on April 28th. As disappointed as we will be, there is nothing we can do about it if we can't get there from here. Unfortunately, didn't take out insurance on the flights, for which we splurged and paid business class fares. Stupidity still is still alive and well in our household.
If this is an 'Act of God' then your insurance may well not have covered it in any case.

But yes, I never travel anywhere without insurance.

In particular, for an American, you would understand this: the cost of medical care anywhere in the world if a serious accident or illness. Eg cost of a private flight home.
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Post by Valuethinker »

Indices wrote:Europe has a great train system, ample ports, and wonderful highways (Autobahn for example). They'll be fine after a slight adjustment. With all the lost revenue to European air carriers, the US ones might make a bit more money. Where the media sees death, destruction and the end of the world, I see business as usual.

As John Bogle is fond of stating: "Stay the course."
I don't disagree vis a vis investment policy. There's no way of anticipating all the fallout.

Not so simple on the economy. A downturn in the economy here will hit US business (our second largest trading partner).

This really will hit economic growth if it carries on more than a few more days. 700k people a day fly thru British airports.

UK of course is quasi cut off. The ferries and Eurostar are completely booked solid. Much of our fruit and veg is imported by air freight (stupidly, but it is so)-- £1m a day from Kenya for example, into Europe.

There are people waiting for key operations, they cannot get the organs necessary across.

One child awaiting tissue transplant may die (personally, on that one, I would ring the pilot and ask them to take a view-- having gotten UK air safety authority to agree). The matching donor is in Canada. There are 16 others awaiting critical operations that are delayed.

Certain anti-cancer drugs have shelf lives of days: we cannot get the exports out to the hospitals that need them.

British soldiers are being evacuated to US medical facilities in the US, out of Afghanistan.

Over to how Europe works (Continental Europe). Passenger rail is very good. Whereas in the US something like 40% freight goes by rail, Europe it is much less (about 10% I think).

We can put things on trucks, but it will delay things (there are severe bottlenecks in and around the Alps, especially in summer).

A number of countries (France, UK, Austria) are heavily dependent on tourism (Austria it is 8% of GDP). UK in particular heavily dependent on American summer tourism. Austria and France there are Germans and Scandinavians driving down, but they too get a lot of international air travel tourism.

Then there is the nature of modern business which is to flit around. That too is stopped. And ditto the global supply chain: your computer comes from China by plane, except it won't.

I can't even send a letter to Canada (no air mail).

In the last 80 years there probably has never been a day without aviation over London. Except for an emergency helicopter I saw yesterday, for the last 3 days there has been nothing.

It's all quite spooky, really.

If the wind shifts, it will be North American airports that are shut down (that is most unlikely apparently).
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Post by Valuethinker »

djw wrote:The way the news reports are trending, I'm glad I have no plans to get on an airplane for at least 6 months.

Apparently there's a history of a second, much larger, nearby volcano called "Katla" being triggered by the one that's currently erupting. If that one blows, it'll be another Mount St. Helens in size and scope.

Since Mount St. Helens blew up, it's been relatively calm, so we can hope that once Katla blows and the resulting HUGE dust cloud disperses, the airlines may be able to get back to normal without constantly worrying about what's coming next.

I'm beginning to suspect that the economic impact (and resulting impact on world stock prices) may be a lot LARGER re: the volcanic eruption than it will be re: news about Goldman Sachs.
Pinatubo was the real blow. Much bigger than Mt. St Helens.

The estimate is Pinatubo cooled the planet by about 0.5 degrees C for 18 months.

That would effect growing seasons, if repeated.
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Post by Kenkat »

baw703916 wrote:
Indices wrote:Europe has a great train system, ample ports, and wonderful highways (Autobahn for example). They'll be fine after a slight adjustment.
I think the U.S. would be much worse off in a similar situation There really isn't a viable way of getting from, say, Atlanta to San Francisco that doesn't involve air travel.

Brad
Just keep in mind that the distances in many cases are much longer in the US. For example:

Atlanta - San Francisco = 2140mi
London - Paris = 212mi
London - Berlin = 580mi
London - Rome = 890mi
London - Athens, Greece = 1485mi
London - Moscow, Russia = 1550mi
London - Cairo, Egypt = 2180mi

Europe is just a lot closer together in many cases. We have an excellent highway system here in the US - it's just a big country.

Ken
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Post by RobertAlanK »

djw wrote:See also the thread: a reminder regarding black swans
I suppose Godzilla would qualify as a black swan? I think this is just the sort of natural disruption that wakes him up. If it happens hopefully Mothra will come through a black hole created by the Hadron Collider to save us. :shock:
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Post by Valuethinker »

kenschmidt wrote:
baw703916 wrote:
Indices wrote:Europe has a great train system, ample ports, and wonderful highways (Autobahn for example). They'll be fine after a slight adjustment.
I think the U.S. would be much worse off in a similar situation There really isn't a viable way of getting from, say, Atlanta to San Francisco that doesn't involve air travel.

Brad
Just keep in mind that the distances in many cases are much longer in the US. For example:

Atlanta - San Francisco = 2140mi
London - Paris = 212mi
London - Berlin = 580mi
London - Rome = 890mi
London - Athens, Greece = 1485mi
London - Moscow, Russia = 1550mi
London - Cairo, Egypt = 2180mi

Europe is just a lot closer together in many cases. We have an excellent highway system here in the US - it's just a big country.

Ken
Geography is key though.

I agree generally distances in North America are much greater.

Europe really does have good highways. Even Italy but especially France and Germany. Even by US standards.

What hurts Europe is having the Alps bang in the middle and thus real traffic issues N to S.

Northern European plain is flat like a pancake *but* Rhine crossing is a pain, so is Elbe and Oder, let alone Vistula (Poland). You get to Poland and the road network is still 20 years behind Germany (maybe 30) whereas East Germany the West Germans pumped in billions post unification to give them modern autobahns.

So essentially the problem in Europe is mostly N to S (Pyrennees, Alps, Dalmatians etc.) leaving much of southern Europe somewhat cut off.

For you the equivalent is California and the West Coast, and to some extent Appalachia. Your big river is the Mississippi.

The high speed railway network on the Continent is impressive-- France first and foremost, but Spain and Germany rapidly catching up.

However for freight we move far far more by road than you do-- your long distance multi-modal freight train system is impressive, in some ways as impressive as European passenger railways.

The US used to have great passenger trains, you could cross the Continent in a few days. Maybe again some day-- there are parts of the US where the population density would justify it.

Britain is a very small place (700 miles end to end) BUT we are a big importer of food and just about everything else (and a big exporter). Being cut off is a real issue. From memory we import over half our food consumption.
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Post by Dan Moroboshi »

djw wrote:Is it just me, or does the following news story remind you of an early scene in the movie "Jaws" in which the Amity Chamber of Commerce and the Mayor demand that the police chief reopen the beaches immediately?
Image

"Sometimes that volcano he looks right into ya. Right into your eyes. And, you know, the thing about a volcano... he's got lifeless eyes. Black eyes. Like a doll's eyes. When he comes at ya, doesn't seem to be living... until he erupts on ya, and those black eyes roll over white and then... ah then you hear that terrible high-pitched screamin'. The lava flows red, and despite all the poundin' and the hollerin', they all come in and they... rip you to pieces."

(Radar image of Eyjafjallajökull craters taken from here: http://icelandreview.com/icelandreview/ ... _id=360867 )
neverknow
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Post by neverknow »

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Last edited by neverknow on Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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bearwolf
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Post by bearwolf »

Valuethinker wrote:Then there is the nature of modern business which is to flit around. That too is stopped. And ditto the global supply chain: your computer comes from China by plane, except it won't.
Say it isn't so. Does this mean my iPad will be delayed? Oh the Horror!

BearWolf
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Post by Valuethinker »

bearwolf wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:Then there is the nature of modern business which is to flit around. That too is stopped. And ditto the global supply chain: your computer comes from China by plane, except it won't.
Say it isn't so. Does this mean my iPad will be delayed? Oh the Horror!

BearWolf
Since everything is built on 'Just in Time', when your google queries start to slow down (no new servers) or your replacement phone or laptop just isn't there (no chips) this can be a real pain.

Similarly cars can't get built (chips that go into the engine control system).

More seriously, medical devices cannot be used, drugs don't arrive (cancer therapies can have very short shelf lives).

A few days is neither here nor there for this, but global supply chains are airborne, and no one keeps inventory any more.

If you are waiting for a critical component like a heart valve for an operation, this is not good news.

Look at Federal Express, a global business built on Memphis Airport. Think of how many crucial business items go by Fedex (all routed through Memphis if in Continental USA).

I remember this when Kobe had its earthquake. Key computer chips (memory) only made in and around Kobe.

One problem is we don't know how to ship a computer by container, I don't think. We stopped doing it so long ago, that we just don't know how to do it.

This relocalization of supply chains could be pretty painful. Companies like Dell (assembles in Ireland) must be screaming.

It's a new ball game if this stretches on more than a week or so. Right now I would judge the damage trivial. But won't stay that way.
Flashes1
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Post by Flashes1 »

If I understand it correctly, it's an underground volcano? Would it be feasible to detonate several ICBM's overtop of it and let the falling debris cover it up? As a hypercaptalist I don't like this volcano disrupting global trade!
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Kenkat
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Post by Kenkat »

Valuethinker wrote:
kenschmidt wrote:
baw703916 wrote:
Indices wrote:Europe has a great train system, ample ports, and wonderful highways (Autobahn for example). They'll be fine after a slight adjustment.
I think the U.S. would be much worse off in a similar situation There really isn't a viable way of getting from, say, Atlanta to San Francisco that doesn't involve air travel.

Brad
Just keep in mind that the distances in many cases are much longer in the US. For example:

Atlanta - San Francisco = 2140mi
London - Paris = 212mi
London - Berlin = 580mi
London - Rome = 890mi
London - Athens, Greece = 1485mi
London - Moscow, Russia = 1550mi
London - Cairo, Egypt = 2180mi

Europe is just a lot closer together in many cases. We have an excellent highway system here in the US - it's just a big country.

Ken
Geography is key though.

I agree generally distances in North America are much greater.

Europe really does have good highways. Even Italy but especially France and Germany. Even by US standards.

What hurts Europe is having the Alps bang in the middle and thus real traffic issues N to S.

Northern European plain is flat like a pancake *but* Rhine crossing is a pain, so is Elbe and Oder, let alone Vistula (Poland). You get to Poland and the road network is still 20 years behind Germany (maybe 30) whereas East Germany the West Germans pumped in billions post unification to give them modern autobahns.

So essentially the problem in Europe is mostly N to S (Pyrennees, Alps, Dalmatians etc.) leaving much of southern Europe somewhat cut off.

For you the equivalent is California and the West Coast, and to some extent Appalachia. Your big river is the Mississippi.

The high speed railway network on the Continent is impressive-- France first and foremost, but Spain and Germany rapidly catching up.

However for freight we move far far more by road than you do-- your long distance multi-modal freight train system is impressive, in some ways as impressive as European passenger railways.

The US used to have great passenger trains, you could cross the Continent in a few days. Maybe again some day-- there are parts of the US where the population density would justify it.

Britain is a very small place (700 miles end to end) BUT we are a big importer of food and just about everything else (and a big exporter). Being cut off is a real issue. From memory we import over half our food consumption.
I think we agree. I guess my point was that the US would probably be better off in this situation. There's no express trains or boats in Europe that will take you comparable distances quickly either. There's the autobahn, but Hamburg to Munich (about as a long a trip you can take within Germany) is only about 380 miles/610k.

It's the oceans and the seas that get you. The problem is that there's only one way across the ocean quickly and that is air travel. You can get across the channel other ways but it's a short trip anyway. Americans would just drive and we don't have near the geography to deal with as you mention. Just get on the interstate and "put the hammer down". :D
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Post by FrugalInvestor »

bearwolf wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:Then there is the nature of modern business which is to flit around. That too is stopped. And ditto the global supply chain: your computer comes from China by plane, except it won't.
Say it isn't so. Does this mean my iPad will be delayed? Oh the Horror!

BearWolf
It may be a blessing BearWolf.

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Post by MWCA »

Guess what. The world adapts. Just not on a persons time schedule. :)
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Post by Pacific »

Ban led by flawed computer models

By Joshua Chaffin in Brussels

Published: April 20 2010 03:00 | Last updated: April 20 2010 03:00

Flawed computer models may have exacerbated the reaction to the Icelandic volcano eruption that has grounded tens of thousands of flights, stranded hundreds of thousands of passengers and cost businesses hundreds of millions of euros.

The computer models that guided decisions to impose a no-fly zone across most of Europe in recent days are based on incomplete science and limited data, according to European officials. As a result, they may have overstated the risks to the public, needlessly grounding flights and damaging businesses.

. . . . . .
See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1c05510c-4c13 ... ab49a.html
bengt
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Post by bengt »

if only we have used that trillion dollar shovel-ready infrastructure stimulus bill to dig a tunnel between New York and Southampton..
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Post by stratton »

Valuethinker wrote:Since everything is built on 'Just in Time', when your google queries start to slow down (no new servers) or your replacement phone or laptop just isn't there (no chips) this can be a real pain.
"Just in Time" is not robust. It has no slack in the supply chain if there is a hiccup. It may be cash efficient when it's working correctly, but I curious what the damages are when there is a problem such as right now.

If customers walk they may not come back because they are happy with their new vendor.

Paul
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Hexdump
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Do you think that Thor is upset with Loki ?

Post by Hexdump »

Some awesome photos and I have always wondered why volcano eruptions cause so much lightning.

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/0 ... okull.html
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Post by Valuethinker »

stratton wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:Since everything is built on 'Just in Time', when your google queries start to slow down (no new servers) or your replacement phone or laptop just isn't there (no chips) this can be a real pain.
"Just in Time" is not robust. It has no slack in the supply chain if there is a hiccup. It may be cash efficient when it's working correctly, but I curious what the damages are when there is a problem such as right now.

If customers walk they may not come back because they are happy with their new vendor.

Paul
BMW has estimated lost production of 5k cars. Nissan about 2k.

Air freight is 0.25% of world trade by volume, but a widely quoted statistic is that it is 25% UK exports by value (widely quoted doesn't mean it is correct).

Those rose growers in Kenya are losing £2m a day. Not good for a country with a GDP of $1000 per head.
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