Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

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surfer1
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by surfer1 »

And here's the token downer post! Odds of winning Mega Millions: 1 in 259 million.

You have a better chance of:

Getting canonized: 1 in 20 million
Becoming an astronaut: 1 in 13 million
Dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10 million
Getting a royal flush in the first hand: 1 in 649,740
Getting hit by an asteroid: 1 in 250,000
Fatally slipping in bath or shower: 1 in 2,000

Ok, enough?
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cfs
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by cfs »

I will report back to you as soon as I get the big one tonight.
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BolderBoy
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by BolderBoy »

EmergDoc wrote:Not to mention not available in my state. I might consider buying a ticket if I could, but I'm certainly not going to drive for hours to do it.
I lived in a border city in Southern Colorado before the state joined the interstate lottery games. When the jackpots would get big, the phone would start ringing with calls from people I knew in Denver who wanted me to hop across the state line and "buy some lottery tickets. I'll reimburse you."

I scoffed at all such requests.
fourwaystreet
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by fourwaystreet »

EternalOptimist wrote:Never played....too rational and too cheap.
And you call yourself a Optimist?
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bluelight
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by bluelight »

I'm in on 3 tickets with 2 others. A coworker buys tickets every week, when I remember to, I'll give her a few dollars towards the next few ticket purchases. She gives me a copy of the ticket, but I never check on my own. I figure our chances of winning anything are slim to none.
freebeer
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by freebeer »

surfer1 wrote:And here's the token downer post! Odds of winning Mega Millions: 1 in 259 million.
...
But what does it cost to play? If $1 it's a good bet...
LifeLearner
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by LifeLearner »

surfer1 wrote:And here's the token downer post! Odds of winning Mega Millions: 1 in 259 million.

You have a better chance of:

Getting canonized: 1 in 20 million
Becoming an astronaut: 1 in 13 million
Dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10 million
Getting a royal flush in the first hand: 1 in 649,740
Getting hit by an asteroid: 1 in 250,000
Fatally slipping in bath or shower: 1 in 2,000

Ok, enough?
Is this one on a scale of lifetime?
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JMacDonald
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by JMacDonald »

Here are the numbers:
12/17/2013 WINNING NUMBERS
8 14 17 20 39 7
I think I will keep my day job.
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burgrat
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by burgrat »

I had 3 tickets and out of 18 numbers, only got one. Back to the grind I guess (stay the course, stay the course, stay the course.....)
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22twain
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by 22twain »

Anybody here from San Jose CA? A winning ticket was sold there.

There might still be more. (No, I didn't buy any tickets myself.)
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archbish99
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by archbish99 »

hoopy wrote:Re: buying multiple tickets for yourself.

Someone I know put it this way: The odds of winning are zero. Zero multiplied by a hundred (tickets) is still zero.
Yes, but it's non-zero. Infinitesimal, granted, but non-zero. The percentage improvement between zero and non-zero is infinite; the percentage improvement between infinitesimal and twice infinitesimal is decidedly finite. So I see an argument for buying one ticket, but not more.

Personally, I buy when the jackpots (excluding the probability of sharing) are large enough that the ticket has a positive expected value. Doesn't happen often, and the recent rule changes raise than threshold. If somebody won this time around, good for them and I can stop buying tickets.
I'm not a financial advisor, I just play one on the Internet.
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rob
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by rob »

jridger2011 wrote:No, not this time. I have joined in office pools but we have never won anything. Winning would solve a lot of day to day problems but probably bring on a whole new set. I'd be happy to get my $1 back when I play those things.
I never buy tickets apart from the odd office pool......not that I think I would win but as insurance in case I was the only idiot that had to go into work after not participating :D
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LifeLearner
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by LifeLearner »

rob wrote:
jridger2011 wrote:No, not this time. I have joined in office pools but we have never won anything. Winning would solve a lot of day to day problems but probably bring on a whole new set. I'd be happy to get my $1 back when I play those things.
I never buy tickets apart from the odd office pool......not that I think I would win but as insurance in case I was the only idiot that had to go into work after not participating :D
At least you won't be the idiot that goes back to work after spending your millions in a couple years. :wink:
madbrain
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by madbrain »

22twain wrote:Anybody here from San Jose CA? A winning ticket was sold there.

There might still be more. (No, I didn't buy any tickets myself.)
I think there are plenty of bogleheads from San Jose.

I didn't play, though. I still have never bought a lottery ticket in my life, to this day.
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frugaltype
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by frugaltype »

Office pools... there are far too many stories about people involved in office pools who also buy their own tickets, win with their own tickets, and then get sued by their coworkers alleging it was really a pool ticket, for me to have gone near an office pool.
IowaFarmBoy
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by IowaFarmBoy »

I'm in a small pool at work where we all kick in a few dollars when the pot gets to a certain size. I don't know what that pot size is- the guy who runs the pool lets us know when we are playing. He does a good job of sending out an email prior to the drawing with scans of all the tickets that are ours as I suspect he is buying some for himself, too, and has learned from some of the past problems/lawsuits.

I know we won't win and I really don't daydream about that but participating is my insurance plan against the unthinkable happening- that the rest would win and that I would be the only one left to pick up the work of the 20+ people in the pool. Wonder what that says about my risk profile.....
tim1999
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by tim1999 »

I won $2 on my $1 ticket. Not a bad return.
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soaring
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by soaring »

Have not played lotto since around 2003. Then spent $5-20 weekly for just lotto. Won a few hundred bucks during those yrs so probably down "only" a few thousand during those yrs. Don't think we had the big multi-state drawings in my State back then.

There are too many other ways to waste my money or my time going to get tickets.

BTW the odds changed in October from 1-176,000,000 to 1-259,000,000

http://thelead.blogs.cnn.com/2013/12/17 ... wing-odds/

edit: TWO WINNERS!!!!!

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/18/us/mega-millions/
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smpatel
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by smpatel »

What time is the bogglehead server is on! It is EST 7.06 AM on my computer and I see responses of 7.40 AM already on the board!
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runner9
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by runner9 »

smpatel wrote:What time is the bogglehead server is on! It is EST 7.06 AM on my computer and I see responses of 7.40 AM already on the board!
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... =3&t=85360
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EternalOptimist
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by EternalOptimist »

smpatel wrote:What time is the bogglehead server is on! It is EST 7.06 AM on my computer and I see responses of 7.40 AM already on the board!
Am an hour behind also. BTW, I didn't win the big nor because I didn't play lol
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jlawrence01
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by jlawrence01 »

In October, I bought a Mega Millions lottery ticket in Texas. I forgot to check the ticket before I got home. About two weeks later, I found that I had won $4. I mailed the ticket into the Texas Lottery and they sent me a check for $4.

My wife likes to frame art and other posters. So, she decided to frame the check and hang it on the wall. I will make one comment. It sure seems to turn heads!!! It is great for entertainment value.

We had thought of altering the amount by adding a number of zeros as we have no intention of cashing the check but decided against it.

I play the lottery to the tune of $20 per year. It is cheap entertainment, not a retirement plan.
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EternalOptimist
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by EternalOptimist »

Cool....wonder if anyone knew someone who ever won $1 million +
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by jlawrence01 »

EternalOptimist wrote:Cool....wonder if anyone knew someone who ever won $1 million +
In the plant where I used to work, there were actually TWO million+ winners between 1997-99.

First, three guys would pool their money. They hit a jackpot of $14M, split three ways. I do not remember exactly how much each received but I did know that for two of them, it was their last day at work.

Second, 33 of the 36 members of the MIS department had a pool where they bought about $80 a week in lottery tickets. They hit a $4M jackpot which netted each person approximately $129k per person. That is NOT a life changing event BUT for more than a few people, it was an opportunity to be completely debt free.
harrychan
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by harrychan »

burgrat wrote:I bought 3 tickets ($3) tonight for fun. I'm going on record here to say that if I win, I'm throwing a Bogleheads party and everyone on the forum will be invited. More details later, pending my win... :D
Isn't mega million $2 each?
This is not legal or certified financial advice but you know that already.
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LazyNihilist
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by LazyNihilist »

LifeLearner wrote:
surfer1 wrote:And here's the token downer post! Odds of winning Mega Millions: 1 in 259 million.

You have a better chance of:

Getting canonized: 1 in 20 million
Becoming an astronaut: 1 in 13 million
Dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10 million
Getting a royal flush in the first hand: 1 in 649,740
Getting hit by an asteroid: 1 in 250,000
Fatally slipping in bath or shower: 1 in 2,000

Ok, enough?
Is this one on a scale of lifetime?
Unfortunately, a tenant in our apartment building recently passed away after that happened. :|
The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must -Thucydides
Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

harrychan wrote:
burgrat wrote:I bought 3 tickets ($3) tonight for fun. I'm going on record here to say that if I win, I'm throwing a Bogleheads party and everyone on the forum will be invited. More details later, pending my win... :D
Isn't mega million $2 each?
You're thinking about the Powerball - that is $2 per ticket.
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protagonist
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by protagonist »

3Wood85 wrote:
bottomfisher wrote:
EternalOptimist wrote:Are you playing in this lottery? Whether or not you are, I'd like to hear your rationale. :D
Most weeks - no. But for high jackpots like this one - yes. Odds of winning are obviously remote. But there's a certain entertainment value in spending few bucks on lottery tickets every now and then and discussing around office/community what everyone would do with the money if they win.
I agree with this. I'll probably get one today.
This is funny. It's also the only good argument I have heard for buying one, and probably worth a buck. I'm retired, so no longer have the advantage of office comeraderie....besides I can't even figure out what to tell my daughter to get me for the holidays. I have enough already and I am not convinced that having more would make me any happier. So my contribution to what I would do with the money would be contrived and boring.

If the ticket has ten digits (as I seem to recall in a photo), and if the digits can go from 0 to 9, wouldn't that put your odds of winning at about 1 in ten billion, so for a $636 million jackpot you would, if given an infinite amount of chances, spend about 10 billion for every 636 million, or about $16 for every dollar you would win?

An aside...my ex-sister-in-law won about 9 million in the lottery. She was already living in a big house with her husband and kids, but the kids are grown and moved out, and when she won they retired and bought a way bigger house. Now they have that much more to take care of, and you can only live in so many rooms. It doesn't make much sense to me.
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by grog »

I do not play because the expected value is negative (as Mel points out, don't be fooled by the advertised jackpot, the after-tax lump sum payout is much less). I also have some objections to such a state-operated enterprise.

It's true that $1 is not a lot of money, but people don't just spend $1. I look at the numbers and see states with per capita lottery sales over $300 per year. Spending $1? Whatever. But $300 is ridiculous. Especially so when you consider that many people spend zero. That means there are quite a few (probably very poor) people wasting hundreds even thousands of dollars a year on the lottery. And I don't see the entertainment value at all. Horse racing, poker, blackjack, sports betting, sure. Checking your numbers and getting disappointed? Not so much.
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

EternalOptimist wrote:I hear most million dollar winners get bored and go back to work :oops:
Not this guy, Calgary lotto winner Tom Crist to give $40M prize away - Calgary - CBC News. Love the first part of the story,
Tom Crist was golfing in Palm Springs, Calif., in May when his phone rang.

"As soon as I hung up from my cellphone call from Western Canada Lottery I never thought about it. We finished our lunch, we went out golfing. I’ve kept it a secret, even my kids didn’t know until today," said Crist on Monday.
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protagonist
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by protagonist »

surfer1 wrote:And here's the token downer post! Odds of winning Mega Millions: 1 in 259 million.

You have a better chance of:

Getting canonized: 1 in 20 million
Becoming an astronaut: 1 in 13 million
Dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10 million
Getting a royal flush in the first hand: 1 in 649,740
Getting hit by an asteroid: 1 in 250,000
Fatally slipping in bath or shower: 1 in 2,000

Ok, enough?
The most interesting to me is getting hit by an asteroid. By these numbers it probably already happened to a bunch of people in, say, Brooklyn. Each one would have been a first page story in the New York Times. Asteroids move with incredible velocity and show little mercy to those hit, even tiny asteroids. And the number doesn't even account for meteorites. I'm skeptical.

I guess the chances of a Jew getting canonized is worse than one in 20 million....maybe no better than winning the lottery. Then again it happened to Mary and she was Jewish.
Last edited by protagonist on Wed Dec 18, 2013 10:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
crowd79
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by crowd79 »

protagonist wrote:
surfer1 wrote:And here's the token downer post! Odds of winning Mega Millions: 1 in 259 million.

You have a better chance of:

Getting canonized: 1 in 20 million
Becoming an astronaut: 1 in 13 million
Dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10 million
Getting a royal flush in the first hand: 1 in 649,740
Getting hit by an asteroid: 1 in 250,000
Fatally slipping in bath or shower: 1 in 2,000

Ok, enough?
The most interesting to me is getting hit by an asteroid. By these numbers it probably already happened to a bunch of people in, say, Brooklyn. I'm skeptical.

I guess the chances of a Jew getting canonized is worse than one in 20 million....maybe no better than winning the lottery. Then again it happened to Mary and she was Jewish.
Let's not forget hundreds of people were "hit" by an asteroid in Russia last February. Well, technically not by the asteroid itself, but debris caused by the asteroid. I'd still count that as being hit.
protagonist
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Re: Mega Millions jackpot to $636 million

Post by protagonist »

crowd79 wrote:
protagonist wrote:
surfer1 wrote:And here's the token downer post! Odds of winning Mega Millions: 1 in 259 million.

You have a better chance of:

Getting canonized: 1 in 20 million
Becoming an astronaut: 1 in 13 million
Dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10 million
Getting a royal flush in the first hand: 1 in 649,740
Getting hit by an asteroid: 1 in 250,000
Fatally slipping in bath or shower: 1 in 2,000

Ok, enough?
The most interesting to me is getting hit by an asteroid. By these numbers it probably already happened to a bunch of people in, say, Brooklyn. I'm skeptical.

I guess the chances of a Jew getting canonized is worse than one in 20 million....maybe no better than winning the lottery. Then again it happened to Mary and she was Jewish.
Let's not forget hundreds of people were "hit" by an asteroid in Russia last February. Well, technically not by the asteroid itself, but debris caused by the asteroid. I'd still count that as being hit.
Thousands were hit, true. I forgot about that. But 1/250K? There are 7 billion people on the planet. I suppose the argument is that strikes are infrequent but when they happen lots of people, or dinosaurs, whatever, die all at once and skew the numbers. OK. Maybe.
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