huntertheory wrote:I appreciate all the advice I've received on Bogleheads over the years. My wife and I currently live in Manhattan, which is also where I work, and we have a young baby who is just a bit shy of three months. My wife and I are both 31 years old. My work will keep me in Manhattan for the foreseeable future (I'm a corporate/transactional attorney for a law firm here in the city), but as our family grows and we begin thinking about school for our children, we don't think Manhattan is the long run answer. Our plan is for my wife to stay home with the children, again, at least for the foreseeable future.
We are planning on moving out of the city in the next two years, and the thought is to move to somewhere in New Jersey, as my wife's family currently lives there (I am from a southern state, so some kind of greenery for the kids is appealing to me as well). We currently rent, and our thought would be to rent for a year in the new location to "try it out," but to otherwise purchase a home in the next 2-3 years.
I'm wondering if the Bogleheads have any recommendations on towns in New Jersey that:
- 1) have a manageable commute to Manhattan (preferably by train)
2) have good/affordable school options nearby
3) generally have a nice balance of community/amenities/safety/etc with cost of living/property values/property taxes.
I know that's fairly open ended but any leads or advice would be appreciated. I'm happy to provide more detail/background on us as needed.
A couple of observations (having friends in NYC but never having lived there):
- consider Connecticut - generally one hears nicer things about Connecticut than NJ (I don't know if taxes are any lower, but the communities are perhaps more amenable
- your life will depend on how good your train is, so do a lot of checking on that (also planned improvements, which can be incredibly disruptive but should lead to better service)
- unfortunately everyone wants what you want, (commutable, good community, good schools), so you will wind up paying too much for too little. Know what it is you will tradeoff (commute time or some other amenity; maybe a house that becomes a longterm renovation project, etc.)
From the strength of the US housing market, waiting could hurt you. I am all for 'try before buy' but in your shoes (and dependent upon your salary progression) I'd think about doing this in 12-18 months.
The issue is the one economist Edward Gleaser (just written a book about cities) has emphasized. In the really popular cities in the USA (Boston, SF, NY, LA, Wash DC, perhaps Seattle?) various local factors act to restrict housing supply-- communities resist intense urban development. (Paul Krugman has called this, I think, 'Flatland' and 'Zoneland'. Flatland is like Dallas, housing supply expands to meet demand. Zoneland is these coastal cities). Suburban communities have development restrictions and minimum lot size. Therefore housing supply lags demand (each of these cities has a vibrant service based economy) and so prices are extortionate. And there is little or no sign of this abating. Whereas overall US housing prices are not likely to be bullish (post this post crash 'bounce') in those key cities, that offer the jobs and that people move to, things don't look like they are getting better, to my knowledge.