New car vs 2 year old

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airahcaz
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New car vs 2 year old

Post by airahcaz »

What's the justifications folks go through in buying a new car vs. a well kept/maintained 2 year old car that has already accounted for the 30%+ depreciation?

Say the plan is to keep the car at least 7 years. Of course everyone would like new, but is that the primary reason to buy new and hit your wallet? Less repairs in buying new still do not outweigh the costs of buying new.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by livesoft »

Often one cannot find a well-maintained 2-year-old car at a good price. Too often the owner wants too much money for the vehicle.

Why would someone be selling a 2-year-old car anyways? What's wrong with it?
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by Toons »

airahcaz wrote:What's the justifications folks go through in buying a new car vs. a well kept/maintained 2 year old car that has already accounted for the 30%+ depreciation?

Say the plan is to keep the car at least 7 years. Of course everyone would like new, but is that the primary reason to buy new and hit your wallet? Less repairs in buying new still do not outweigh the costs of buying new.

I just bought a New CRV ,I liked the new car "smell" :D
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by mlipps »

We bought a 2010 Matrix 4 months ago. It had 25,000 miles. My guess is it had been leased with a service agreement because it was impeccable and fully serviced (there were even records for the monthly wash & detailing). For some reason, the dealership didn't make it Toyota Certified. We paid 13,000. I believe the new price for the same car is around 18,000. I definitely think we made the right choice. For me the math was this: if we bought the new car, those few two years would cost $2,500 each. By buying this car and keeping it for around 10 years, not counting any residual value, the subsequent years cost $1,300 each. Not everyone is a Boglehead I guess.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by Mudpuppy »

Lately, there has been a very small price differential between a new car and a well-maintained 2 year old used car (particularly one that has been lightly used). The thinking that a 2 year old used car has already depreciated is rather outmoded at the moment. This may be a temporary blimp in the nature of the car market, but it is a current blip, so one should not automatically assume they're getting a better deal by buying a 2 year old used car right now. You might, but it's very situationally dependent.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by WHL »

A 2 year old car isn't always 30% cheaper than a new car, and I'd venture to say that would be a rarity.

I've never bought a new car (current vehicle was purchased at the end of 2005 as a 2005 model with 6k miles) but I will be looking at new trucks in about 3-5 years. As I'll be paying cash, I will of course look at the used market as well. MUCH easier to haggle a private sale when you come with cash.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by grabiner »

You have to look at the actual costs per mile, or per year.

I expect to keep a car for 120,000 miles. Therefore, I have the choice between buying a new car and driving it 120,000 miles, or buying a used car with 40,000 miles and driving it 80,000 miles. If the new car costs $20,000, the used car costs $14,000, and the trade-in value of either car is $2000, then the ownership cost for either car is 15 cents per mile, and the new car is better because it gives three years of having a new car (with better quality than the average car, and any repairs covered under warranty).

When I first bought a car in 2001, there was a glut of off-lease cars (all three years old), and thus buying a used car off-lease was a better deal. When I bought my next car in 2006, the depreciation on Honda Civics was so slow that buying one new was a better deal.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by airahcaz »

WHL wrote:A 2 year old car isn't always 30% cheaper than a new car, and I'd venture to say that would be a rarity.

I've never bought a new car (current vehicle was purchased at the end of 2005 as a 2005 model with 6k miles) but I will be looking at new trucks in about 3-5 years. As I'll be paying cash, I will of course look at the used market as well. MUCH easier to haggle a private sale when you come with cash.
For example, a 2011 Honda Accord EX-L can be had for ~$20K. A 2013 is $30K. That's 30%.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by grabiner »

airahcaz wrote:
WHL wrote:A 2 year old car isn't always 30% cheaper than a new car, and I'd venture to say that would be a rarity.

I've never bought a new car (current vehicle was purchased at the end of 2005 as a 2005 model with 6k miles) but I will be looking at new trucks in about 3-5 years. As I'll be paying cash, I will of course look at the used market as well. MUCH easier to haggle a private sale when you come with cash.
For example, a 2011 Honda Accord EX-L can be had for ~$20K. A 2013 is $30K. That's 30%.
I just checked the Kelley Blue Book; it gives a price of $28,868 for the 2013 model, and $22,469 for the 2011 model ($23,369 if certified pre-owned); that is only a 20% difference. To save 30%, you have to go back a third year to 2010, for $19,689 ($20,589 if certified pre-owned).
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by Aptenodytes »

When I last got a car I found the three-year-olds were attractive. Many cars come off leases then. I compared new versus 3-year-old and felt that the new just didn't make sense.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by stoptothink »

Mudpuppy wrote:Lately, there has been a very small price differential between a new car and a well-maintained 2 year old used car (particularly one that has been lightly used). The thinking that a 2 year old used car has already depreciated is rather outmoded at the moment. This may be a temporary blimp in the nature of the car market, but it is a current blip, so one should not automatically assume they're getting a better deal by buying a 2 year old used car right now. You might, but it's very situationally dependent.
Just went through this in January. After extensive shopping around, ended up with a 3yr old vehicle with 38k miles which I purchased for ~80% of a new one (which also happens to be a new model). If I was not on a strict budget (my EF fund), I would have just purchased the new one. At the moment, there is almost no upside to purchasing slightly used over new if you are in the market for a gas efficient vehicle.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by SteveNet »

Personally after being in the Auto manufacturing business for 30 yrs, I do not see cars as anything but a machine to get from point a to point b.
No love affair here for cars or new shiny cars.
That said I have almost always bought a used vehicle and I don't even consider resale value as I drive them to the junk yard when I'm done with them.

Unless you get a real lemon as a used vehicle, (a mechanic going over it well would help greatly) the cost of general repair to a used vehicle will be little compared to what you save by not paying for new.
A good deal depends on how you use the vehicle, mileage per yr. If you drive a huge number of miles per yr then maybe New would work, but a 2 yr used vehicle still has the warranty as well.
If you drive few miles per yr, you can get many yrs out of a used vehicle.
Of course things like brakes, tires, batteries, plugs, wires etc etc are par for the course of operating expenses.

My current vehicles with actual mileage.

1996 Caprice, bought used @5 yr old with 49K miles, current mileage 76k.
2004 Caviler bought new, ( a rash decision on my part as I didn't know I was going to retire) a pitiful ..... 22k miles today.
Looking back today, what a waste of the cost of a new car 22k miles, 9 yrs old. :oops:
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by momar »

The dramatically improved reliability of cars and the internet has made the market much more efficient. It is much easier to buy and sell used cars in a much larger radius than ever before and there is far more information about these cars available at everyone's fingertips than ever before.

Even 15 years ago, how many used cars would you be able to look at? Because now I can find dozens of vehicles in the exact make/model/year/trim/color that I want within a hundred miles.

There will likely always be a small premium for a new car, but I wouldn't ever expect it to be like it has been in the past.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by airahcaz »

grabiner wrote:
airahcaz wrote:
WHL wrote:A 2 year old car isn't always 30% cheaper than a new car, and I'd venture to say that would be a rarity.

I've never bought a new car (current vehicle was purchased at the end of 2005 as a 2005 model with 6k miles) but I will be looking at new trucks in about 3-5 years. As I'll be paying cash, I will of course look at the used market as well. MUCH easier to haggle a private sale when you come with cash.
For example, a 2011 Honda Accord EX-L can be had for ~$20K. A 2013 is $30K. That's 30%.
I just checked the Kelley Blue Book; it gives a price of $28,868 for the 2013 model, and $22,469 for the 2011 model ($23,369 if certified pre-owned); that is only a 20% difference. To save 30%, you have to go back a third year to 2010, for $19,689 ($20,589 if certified pre-owned).
Let's say it is actually 25% - is that not enough justification?
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by momar »

airahcaz wrote:
grabiner wrote:
airahcaz wrote:
WHL wrote:A 2 year old car isn't always 30% cheaper than a new car, and I'd venture to say that would be a rarity.

I've never bought a new car (current vehicle was purchased at the end of 2005 as a 2005 model with 6k miles) but I will be looking at new trucks in about 3-5 years. As I'll be paying cash, I will of course look at the used market as well. MUCH easier to haggle a private sale when you come with cash.
For example, a 2011 Honda Accord EX-L can be had for ~$20K. A 2013 is $30K. That's 30%.
I just checked the Kelley Blue Book; it gives a price of $28,868 for the 2013 model, and $22,469 for the 2011 model ($23,369 if certified pre-owned); that is only a 20% difference. To save 30%, you have to go back a third year to 2010, for $19,689 ($20,589 if certified pre-owned).
Let's say it is actually 25% - is that not enough justification?
I don't know. If someone drives 15,000 miles per year and gets rid of vehicles once it reaches 120,000 miles, both of which are reasonable, by buying a used car you have already let someone else use 25% of the miles (and the best ones!) to achieve a... 25% savings.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by Slapshot »

Since I've been able to afford it, I've always bought a new car. There's just too much uncertainty with used cars. I don't care what the dealer certification is, I just don't trust anyone in the car business. Got burned once with a used car. How many flooded cars are out there being sold as good? Can you really trust the mileage on the odometer? I'll buy new and drive them till they quit. At least then I know the real history.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by BrandonBogle »

And of course what about luxury cars or more exotic type cars such as convertibles. My 4Runner I bought new and vowed to never do that again (even though I had a steal of a deal). My VW Eos I bought certified pre-owned and I'm putting it on the market to sell on Monday. Great car, nothing wrong, and still another year of the CPO warranty, but I'm worried about getting burned if the convertible mechanics ever have a problem. Meanwhile, my friend has a M35 and wants to get rid of it before it hits 100k miles because, traditionally (per his words), luxury cars become big expenses once you hit 100k. Personally, I plan to keep the 4Runner till the wheels rust off, but want to get a more comfortable, more efficient daily driver.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by rocket »

livesoft wrote:Often one cannot find a well-maintained 2-year-old car at a good price. Too often the owner wants too much money for the vehicle.
Why would someone be selling a 2-year-old car anyways? What's wrong with it?
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by 325e »

Any good car like a Honda accord is so reliable now, that as long as the person changed the oil and didn't get in any major accident, you save a lot by going used. I prefer private parties for a better deal (craigslist). If the person seems normal and they have maintenance records, and you check the vin for accidents, any risk imo is very low. When I call, I ask if they have maintenance records. I feel better about a good private party than a dealership, because I can't see who owned the car. I've never had any problems with used cars and I buy much older ones than 2 years old.

There are valid reasons why people sell a newer car. They have another baby, they just like new cars, downsizing, etc.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by The Wizard »

Buying new is fine. I've been buying new since 1975, sometimes factory orders to get the config "right".
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by john94549 »

Around here (SF Bay Area), lease returns are a bit thin. Market should be better in a couple of years, when cars getting leased last year start coming back. There's usually a lag, and new car sales/leases fell off in the swoon.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by protagonist »

momar wrote:
airahcaz wrote:
grabiner wrote:
airahcaz wrote:
WHL wrote:A 2 year old car isn't always 30% cheaper than a new car, and I'd venture to say that would be a rarity.

I've never bought a new car (current vehicle was purchased at the end of 2005 as a 2005 model with 6k miles) but I will be looking at new trucks in about 3-5 years. As I'll be paying cash, I will of course look at the used market as well. MUCH easier to haggle a private sale when you come with cash.
For example, a 2011 Honda Accord EX-L can be had for ~$20K. A 2013 is $30K. That's 30%.
I just checked the Kelley Blue Book; it gives a price of $28,868 for the 2013 model, and $22,469 for the 2011 model ($23,369 if certified pre-owned); that is only a 20% difference. To save 30%, you have to go back a third year to 2010, for $19,689 ($20,589 if certified pre-owned).
Let's say it is actually 25% - is that not enough justification?
I don't know. If someone drives 15,000 miles per year and gets rid of vehicles once it reaches 120,000 miles, both of which are reasonable, by buying a used car you have already let someone else use 25% of the miles (and the best ones!) to achieve a... 25% savings.
You also need to factor in the value of a new car warranty, and the additional assumed risk you are taking in return for your 25% discount (unless you are an experienced mechanic yourself, the truth about a used vehicle can easily be hidden....is it a lemon? has it been in a major accident and pefectly "cleaned up"? has it been driven so hard that the 30K miles on the odometer are equivalent to 60K or 80K via your driving style? etc. ) I'm not sure exactly how I feel about this myself, but I believe I would lean towards either buying a brand new car, or buying a car that is old enough with low mileage that has already experienced most of its potential depreciation. One that you can get at a reasonable enough price so that you have much less to lose if it turns out to be a lemon, and that you can sell without taking much of a loss.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by Watty »

When looking at this it is important to remember that the current model year of a car is often much different than the two year old model. About every five years most cars get a major redesign and safety features are often upgraded. ESC became standard in most cars in 2011 so you really have to watch out for things like that.

When comparing costs you have to be sure to compare the "out the door" cost since things like sales tax may be handled differently in your state for new and used cars.
Say the plan is to keep the car at least 7 years.
Here is how I look at it.

For a fair comparison that would mean that you would keep the car until it is seven years old so that you would keep a new car for seven years or a two year old used car for five years.

Since the cost for when the car is three to seven years old are the same I look at the price difference and see what the cost per year is for having a new car the first two years is to see if it is a good value or not.

For example a new car that costs $20,000 and will be sold for $4,000 in seven years costs $16,000 over the years it is owned.

If a good two year old car costs 30% less(I'm skeptical) $14,000 and sells for $4,000 in five years then it cost $10,000 over the five years you had it or $2,000 a year.

The extra two years that you would have had the new car cost $6,000 or $3,000 a year $1,000 a year more than the used car cost per year.

Realistically the first two years will be almost maintenance free since it will be under warranty which might be worth about $500 a year(with a hassel and risk factor) so that drops the premium to about $500 a year for the first two years so the real savings if you bought the used car would only be in the ballpark of $1,000 not $6,000.

For that price I would go with the new car not only to avoid getting a lemon or one that had been in accident but to be sure that all the maintenance had been done and that the car was not driven hard. It is hard to quantify but having a new car with the exact features you want is worth something too.

The numbers would be much different if your were looking at keeping the car longer because that would lower the average cost per year of ownership and make the first two years of new car ownership relatively more expensive.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by BenBritt »

Slapshot, I agree. Wife and I have decided on new. There are just too many storm damaged vehicles out there.The boss wants CRV so I guess that is it.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by btenny »

It is almost impossible to buy a nice 2 year old used car with any features that most people want to own. Yes you can buy stripped down basic models but not well equiped models. Yes for a year or so in 2008-9 you could buy a good 1-2 year old used car, not today. Today you have to settle for 3 year old off lease models with 30-35K miles to get any nice features. And even then you will have to pay premium prices for the car, say 70% or so of new cost. There are just so few nice 3 year old used cars on the lots that the dealers and people selling them ask premium prices and they get it. I know I shopped for a used car for a year. The cars out there are priced too high IMO versus buying a new car. Plus the other issue is many of the used cars that are for sale are models that have model repair issues and are completely out of warranty.

So in my case I gave up and bought a new car. Less hastle and I got exactly what I wanted and in my case the cost per mile will be less than a slightly used car. Plus I get a full waranty.

Now if you willing to drive a very old car I think you can find a wonderful used car with say 90-120K miles for very few $$$. There are tons of older cars and SUVs out there and they are just cheap. You can get any of them and only spend half the cost of driving a newer car even if you add in some repairs. But you get no warranty and they may break down next week and cost you some money and inconvience. And they are not as safe and they use more gas.

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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by Padlin »

Slapshot wrote:Since I've been able to afford it, I've always bought a new car. There's just too much uncertainty with used cars. I don't care what the dealer certification is, I just don't trust anyone in the car business. Got burned once with a used car. How many flooded cars are out there being sold as good? Can you really trust the mileage on the odometer? I'll buy new and drive them till they quit. At least then I know the real history.
Agree completely, I also unknowingly bought of them some years back. I've also not noticed enough price difference to make a late model used a deal over new, at least in dealer lots.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by dandan14 »

The idea that a 2 year old car has taken 30% depreciation has not been accurate over recent years.

I actually just sold a great 2 year old car. We were moving and scaling down to 1 car. It was in beautiful shape, still under warranty, and only 25k miles.

I bought new (for a great price) and paid 17,100 (including tax) and sold for $15250. I sold it above "private party" book value because I was the only private party seller in 100 miles and the dealers were charging much more. I didn't have to negotiate much because I had 3 appointments lined up on a saturday and sold to the first person that came.

That's a loss of 11% over 2 years.

I'll take that deal any day.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by btenny »

Confused you are right about old cars providing a lot more service after 120K miles. One long ago friend buys old big sedans with high mileage for use in Washington DC. He swears that the best deals are old cars with around 100K miles for $2K or so. He drives them and never changes the oil and tries to not fix anything. He says they usually last at least 2-3 years and then he sells them to some mechanic or person who will fix them and drive them longer. He says he always gets at least $1.5K for them after his 2-3 years. So he figures his cost is $500 for 20K miles or 2.5 cents per mile.

I also know I have sold many great old cars that were driven by the buyers for years. Currently I am selling a 1997 Jeep Grand Cherokee that is in great shape but it has 130K miles and I don't want to take it on long road trips in bad weather any longer. But it will provide the new owner a lot more miles of driving and great snow performance. Plus it has a factory lift kit and very heavy duty suspension and running gear so it will also make a great off road car. I figure it will cost the new owner around 5-10 cents per mile to run the car for the next 30-50K miles. And it will work great in heavy snow when dozens of new cars will get stuck.

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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by Devil's Advocate »

I bought a 2012 Nissan Altima from Hertz Used Auto Sales in Des Plaines, IL in January. Paid $14,300 (plus tax title and license). It had 34,000 miles. Beautiful car. Excellent condition. Factory bumper to bumper warranty to 36k and powertrain warranty to 60k. Less than blue book value and about 9 k less than retail new price.
Deals on newer used cars can be had.

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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by airahcaz »

Hmm, do these principles apply to luxury cars in the same fashion?

Lot easier to buy a new $30K car - than a $60K car that can be had for $45K used via CPO.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by German Expat »

airahcaz wrote:Hmm, do these principles apply to luxury cars in the same fashion?

Lot easier to buy a new $30K car - than a $60K car that can be had for $45K used via CPO.
I rather lease those cars and let BMW deal with the depreciation. Between European delivery every 3 years and having a free rental, getting 500$ back from BMW CCA and not having to worry about repairs or even maintenance it works out well for us. My wife does not drive that much but likes to have a BMW. Obviously a used car would be cheaper, we do have a 2006 CRV as a 3rd car and for it we decided to buy it new (at the time 2 year old cars were close to the new car especially because we were ok with the basic model.
On luxury cars it is kind of tricky to do the math and a lot will depend on your driving habits and how long you tend to keep the car. At this time I rather lease them.
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Re: New car vs 2 year old

Post by SnapShots »

Slapshot wrote:Since I've been able to afford it, I've always bought a new car. There's just too much uncertainty with used cars. I don't care what the dealer certification is, I just don't trust anyone in the car business. Got burned once with a used car. How many flooded cars are out there being sold as good? Can you really trust the mileage on the odometer? I'll buy new and drive them till they quit. At least then I know the real history.
Double Ditto. Have bought a couple of used cars for kids and got burned. I prefer new and drive them into the ground.

Inherited a 2000 Cadillac three years ago, and now has 45,000 miles. Smells like new. Kept in the garage and not a ding on it. Fun to drive around town. Have had to put some money in to fixing some things, such as the transmission got bad. Cost about $1,500. Would never buy an old car. An old truck...yes.
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