JillinCa wrote:Their plan seems to involve selling after a price drop.
Yeah. It's a simple "stop-loss" strategy. Nothing new about stop-loss.
On his radio show Ken Moreif likes to brag that he is a certified financial planner
Just because someone is a CFP says nothing about whether they are a fiduciary or not. There's LOTS of CFP's who are essentially salesmen (non-fiduciaries who don't legally work for you). If I'm not mistaken Ken Moreif is in fact a fiduciary, it's just that 1) he's an asset manager, which is bad because asset managers CONSTANTLY bill you perhaps 1% per year. There's no need to pay someone to constantly rebalance your account. 2) his strategy of market timing goes against what all of the respected experts say to do (Warren Buffett, John Bogle, Peter Lynch, Jason Zweig, Burton G. Malkiel, etc).
Ken Moreif's stop-loss strategies (to get out) were WRONG in 2010 and 2011. When you factor in missed dividends (from being out of the market) and the fact that the money he LOST while being out of the market could have been GROWING and COMPOUNDING, he's lost somewhere in the neighborhood of 30% for his clients since 2010. As long as the market keeps going up then this is even MORE missed gains. So for anyone who signed on with Moreif after
2009 they have been hurting.
He was right in 2007 - 2009 but in reality only averted losses of somewhere between 29 - 37% -- Not the whole 57% that the S&P lost from peak to bottom. Good luck guessing it right next time. The key is whether someone can do it with any CONSISTENCY. The experts say that NOBODY has ever done it consistently. And when someone gets just 1 crash right is it because of their system or are they just a "Texas sharpshooter" (the one guy who got lucky from a pool of guessers who are constantly guessing)?