rai wrote:great food for though, and I own 'too much' Apple I do want to sell and replace with an index. But I have so much cap gains I would have to pay many thousand dollars taxes.
I do agree with you that it would be great for me to swap out Apple for VTI, I am not sure it has to be this very instant (when I can stand the risk) and when the tax of selling is beyond question the loss ov value in the next few months is not beyond question (the fear is selling now to get out of the risk and miss out on another $300 gain in share price call it greed I guess or selling remorse).
Would you refuse to cash a lottery check because you have to pay income taxes on that income? Would you put the uncashed check on a table in a restaurant and hope that no-one else picks it up and cashes it? That's what you are doing if you hold off on realizing a gain in Apple because you don't want to pay taxes.
I read Steve Jobs biography and concluded that its a combination of luck and Steve's marketing strength that have made Apple so successful. It could have just have easily have been another NEXT (the computer company that he drove to bankruptcy). With the Ipod, Iphone, and now Ipad, Job's prejudices, the technology, and other company's missteps (eg Sony) happened to all line up with the market and made Apple wildly succesful. Its anybody's guess how long this will continue but it won't be forever.
When it ends, I don't think its going to be pretty. Jobs has very famously set up a corporate culture of giving customers things they don't know that they want. This breeds arrogance. The signs are there. (The antenna hiccup on the Iphone 3) When they finally miss the target, I expect that they will be in denial for quite some time before they realize that their new I-XXXX isn't selling because they can't make a market for it. I think its likely that someday Apple is going to fall as fast as it went up. But this is only my opinion.