For RBD Fans: International Today?

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For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby Kevin M » Tue Mar 06, 2012 2:39 pm

I notice that international ETFs are down more than 3% today (EEM about -3.5%, VGK about -3.8% as of now). Are RBD (Really Bad Day) adherents buying?

I buy on RBDs, but usually only after a RBW (Really Bad Week) or RBM (Really Bad Month), or some other down period longer than a day, so I am not buying (or rebalancing) today.

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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby Auream » Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:07 pm

I had added $5000 to my Roth a couple weeks ago and couldn't get myself to buy anything but vanguard short-term corporate, despite the fact that my asset allocation was a little out of whack. Finally took the opportunity today to move $3K of that new money to Total International.
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby Ice-9 » Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:13 pm

I threw a small amount of cash I had lying around at Emerging Markets today. Hadn't bought anything but REIT index fund (where rebalancing was badly needed) the last several weeks prior.
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby livesoft » Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:18 pm

I've been flying all day. I think VWO has to drop around 5% for it to be a RBD for me. VSS has to go down almost 4%. VXUS also has to drop about 4%. Of course these thresholds are based on big drops in the recent past (see 10/03, 11/09, 9/22, etc) and will be different in the future.
It's all about short-term opportunistic rebalancing due to a short-term change in one's asset allocation, uh, I mean opportunistic rebalancing, uh I mean rebalancing, uh I mean market timing.
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby epilnk » Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:28 pm

Hmmm, looks like a reasonable time for me to TLH back out of VEU. I didn't catch it today, so maybe tomorrow.
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby 555 » Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:47 pm

What's the attraction with investments that have had a small drop after a large runup? :confused
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby madbrain » Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:15 pm

As usual my purchases are a sell signal : I bought $90k of VWO on monday for $44.50 . Already down 4% .
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby Kevin M » Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:58 pm

555 wrote:What's the attraction with investments that have had a small drop after a large runup? :confused

My thought exactly, which is why I said:
Kevin M wrote:I buy on RBDs, but usually only after a RBW (Really Bad Week) or RBM (Really Bad Month), or some other down period longer than a day, so I am not buying (or rebalancing) today.

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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby texas_archer » Tue Mar 06, 2012 10:03 pm

RBDs:

VTI ~-4% for the next two weeks then:
8/8/2011 57.35 -6.93
8/4/2011 61.88 -5.02
8/18/2011 58.7 -4.46
8/10/2011 57.66 -4.25
11/9/2011 63.1 -3.81
10/3/2011 55.81 -3.31
9/21/2011 59.81 -3.25
9/22/2011 57.97 -3.08

VXUS -4.5% for the next two weeks then:
8/8/2011 42.68 -7.12
8/4/2011 45.62 -6.44
11/9/2011 42.62 -5.25
9/22/2011 39.7 -4.50
8/18/2011 43.91 -4.44
8/10/2011 43 -4.36
10/31/2011 44.44 -4.18
12/8/2011 42.14 -3.50
9/30/2011 40.31 -3.40

EEM -5.72%
Date Close %
8/8/2011 $39.03 -8.34
9/22/2011 $34.95 -7.02
11/9/2011 $39.57 -5.85
8/4/2011 $42.86 -5.72
8/10/2011 $39.13 -5.30
9/30/2011 $35.10 -5.01
8/18/2011 $40.18 -4.72
12/12/2011 $37.89 -3.76
10/31/2011 $40.81 -3.75
9/21/2011 $37.59 -3.71
12/8/2011 $38.59 -3.60
10/17/2011 $38.25 -3.38

VXF -4.77%
Date Close
8/8/2011 $46.21 -8.48
8/4/2011 $51.37 -6.34
8/18/2011 $47.64 -5.49
10/3/2011 $43.90 -4.77
11/9/2011 $51.46 -4.26
8/10/2011 $47.28 -3.71
9/22/2011 $46.52 -3.53
9/21/2011 $48.22 -3.46
9/28/2011 $47.11 -3.34
11/1/2011 $50.98 -3.32
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby camper » Tue Mar 06, 2012 10:49 pm

Livesoft is one of my favorite posters here, but I just don't agree with the RBD stuff. I have tried to make good sense of it and just can't. Say you had cash available at the beginning of the year, you would have been better off if you put it in total int'l then. What am I missing?
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby momar » Tue Mar 06, 2012 10:55 pm

camper wrote:Livesoft is one of my favorite posters here, but I just don't agree with the RBD stuff. I have tried to make good sense of it and just can't. Say you had cash available at the beginning of the year, you would have been better off if you put it in total int'l then. What am I missing?

You can sell bonds to buy stocks. There is no reason to be uninvested.
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby livesoft » Tue Mar 06, 2012 11:43 pm

^ Right, if you had cash at the beginning of the year, livesoft would say that you should've invested it according to your asset allocation plan and not wait. See this post: viewtopic.php?p=1028567#p1028567
It's all about short-term opportunistic rebalancing due to a short-term change in one's asset allocation, uh, I mean opportunistic rebalancing, uh I mean rebalancing, uh I mean market timing.
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby LazyNihilist » Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:01 am

livesoft,

If I understand what you say about RBD, you think it would be a good time to Tax Loss Harvest or Re-Balance right?
The only problem is Entropy, leading to the eventual heat death of the universe. [Seen on /.]
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby livesoft » Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:04 am

Yes, I think an RBD is not a bad day to TLH or rebalance.

However, note that today was not an RBD. The drops were just not bad enough.
It's all about short-term opportunistic rebalancing due to a short-term change in one's asset allocation, uh, I mean opportunistic rebalancing, uh I mean rebalancing, uh I mean market timing.
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby wshang » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:42 am

My automatic triggers unleashed today, bought in VT. Glad to see it go on sale. Maybe with some luck we will get a few more bargain sale days.
“. . . extraordinary wealth can be made by knowing the future" - Harry Dent
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby Valuethinker » Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:13 am

Stock returns look fractal. The longest series of price data we have (Egyptian cotton prices since the 1500s) shows a fractal pattern.

Graph daily returns.

You cannot tell from the movement on the Y axis (returns) what the X axis (time scale) is. Days? Weeks? Months? Years? Decades? That's my (possibly wrong) intuitive definition of a 'fractal'.

That should convince you the concept of a 'Really Bad Day' is dangerous. Very dangerous. And volatility in equity markets appears to have been *rising* since 1987, I believe.

Remember also systemic failure. A really bad shock will begat further shocks (up with up, down with down). In other words-- momentum. A Lehman is an event in and of itself. Financial markets have embedded leverage, and at the 'Minsky Moment' collapse in asset values forces forced liquidations, which causes further falls in asset values.

'The worst are full of passionate intensity. And the best lack all conviction. All around is chaos and the centre cannot hold'.

Don't try to catch a falling knife.
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby Random Musings » Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:22 am

RBD perhaps can be somewhat used with Shiller PE10.

Why would I want to buy on a RBD in 2000 when the Shiller PE10 was 40? There is a better chance of a falling knife falling a lot. OTOH, if it is a PE around 10, historically at least, the knife has less to fall. And a better chance of hitting the trampoline with more tightly strung coils.

At Shiller PE of 23 and change, I just would rebalance as normal and not play the RBD game domestically. Since internationals have a more attractive Shiller PE10, this may have a bit more merit.

RM
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby xram » Fri Apr 05, 2013 7:03 pm

ETF = VXUS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.50%
02 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 0.11%
03 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.56%
04 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.12%
05 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.04%
06 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.62%
07 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.83%
08 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.22%
09 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.09%
10 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.36%
11 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.27%
12 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.48%
13 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.92%
14 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.82%
15 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.95%
16 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.16%
17 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.49%
18 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.01%
19 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.88%
20 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.61%
40 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.02%
60 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 1.27%
90 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 6.74%
VTI, VBR, VTWV, SCHH, VXUS, VEA, VWO, VSS, FM, VNQI, VBTLX, VFITX, SCHP, VWITX, IBONDS, EEBONDS, EF(EverBank), UTAH-529
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby xram » Fri Apr 05, 2013 7:15 pm

ETF = VEA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.44%
02 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 0.45%
03 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.02%
04 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 1.03%
05 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.15%
06 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 0.21%
07 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.28%
08 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 0.30%
09 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.01%
10 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.10%
11 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.95%
12 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.26%
13 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.56%
14 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.67%
15 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.59%
16 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.50%
17 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.71%
18 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.15%
19 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.88%
20 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.66%
40 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 0.61%
60 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 3.69%
90 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 9.05%
VTI, VBR, VTWV, SCHH, VXUS, VEA, VWO, VSS, FM, VNQI, VBTLX, VFITX, SCHP, VWITX, IBONDS, EEBONDS, EF(EverBank), UTAH-529
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby xram » Fri Apr 05, 2013 7:20 pm

VTWV on the other hand


ETF = VTWV
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.14%
02 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 0.49%
03 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.42%
04 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.33%
05 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.74% <------ a 05 day cumulative "RBD"
06 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.92% <------ a 06 day cumulative "RBD"
07 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.92% <------ a 07 day cumulative "RBD"
08 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.69% <------ a 08 day cumulative "RBD"
09 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.45%
10 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.31%
11 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.82% <------ a 11 day cumulative "RBD"
12 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.20%
13 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.39%
14 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -3.12% <------ a 14 day cumulative "RBD"
15 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -3.00% <------ a 15 day cumulative "RBD"
16 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.84%
17 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.39%
18 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.56%
19 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.49%
20 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.80%
40 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 1.43%
60 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 5.42%
90 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 14.99%
VTI, VBR, VTWV, SCHH, VXUS, VEA, VWO, VSS, FM, VNQI, VBTLX, VFITX, SCHP, VWITX, IBONDS, EEBONDS, EF(EverBank), UTAH-529
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby xram » Fri Apr 05, 2013 7:27 pm

ETF = VWO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.14%
02 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.17%
03 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.41%
04 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.32%
05 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.20%
06 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.16%
07 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.78%
08 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.65%
09 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.86%
10 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.55%
11 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.47%
12 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.88%
13 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.65%
14 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.76% <------ a 14 day cumulative "RBD"
15 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -3.59% <------ a 15 day cumulative "RBD"
16 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -3.08% <------ a 16 day cumulative "RBD"
17 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -4.04% <------ a 17 day cumulative "RBD"
18 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -5.06% <------ a 18 day cumulative "RBD"
19 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -5.51% <------ a 19 day cumulative "RBD"
20 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -4.60% <------ a 20 day cumulative "RBD"
40 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -5.19% <------ a 40 day cumulative "RBD"
60 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -5.64% <------ a 60 day cumulative "RBD"
90 _Day_Cumulative_Change = 1.57%
VTI, VBR, VTWV, SCHH, VXUS, VEA, VWO, VSS, FM, VNQI, VBTLX, VFITX, SCHP, VWITX, IBONDS, EEBONDS, EF(EverBank), UTAH-529
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby xram » Sat Apr 06, 2013 5:47 am

ETF = VSS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.47%
02 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.01%
03 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.86%
04 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.32%
05 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.63%
06 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.58%
07 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.21%
08 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.07%
09 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.28%
10 _Day_Cumulative_Change = + 0.03%
11 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.89%
12 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.30%
13 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.07%
14 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.19%
15 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -3.01% <------ a 15 day cumulative "RBD"
16 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.51% <------ a 16 day cumulative "RBD"
17 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -3.47% <------ a 17 day cumulative "RBD"
18 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -4.49% <------ a 18 day cumulative "RBD"
19 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -4.94% <------ a 19 day cumulative "RBD"
20 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -4.03% <------ a 20 day cumulative "RBD"
40 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -4.22% <------ a 40 day cumulative "RBD"
60 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.00%
90 _Day_Cumulative_Change = + 4.94%
VTI, VBR, VTWV, SCHH, VXUS, VEA, VWO, VSS, FM, VNQI, VBTLX, VFITX, SCHP, VWITX, IBONDS, EEBONDS, EF(EverBank), UTAH-529
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby xram » Sat Apr 06, 2013 5:56 am

ETF = VBR
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.20%
02 _Day_Cumulative_Change = + 0.54%
03 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.84%
04 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.36%
05 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.27%
06 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.25%
07 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.15%
08 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.67%
09 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.66%
10 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.45%
11 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.16%
12 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.38%
13 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.64%
14 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -2.07%
15 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.97%
16 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -1.00%
17 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.58%
18 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.86%
19 _Day_Cumulative_Change = -0.70%
20 _Day_Cumulative_Change = + 0.05%
40 _Day_Cumulative_Change = + 2.80%
60 _Day_Cumulative_Change = + 7.22%
90 _Day_Cumulative_Change = + 15.28%
VTI, VBR, VTWV, SCHH, VXUS, VEA, VWO, VSS, FM, VNQI, VBTLX, VFITX, SCHP, VWITX, IBONDS, EEBONDS, EF(EverBank), UTAH-529
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby gkaplan » Sat Apr 06, 2013 1:55 pm

Is there a point to this?
Gordon
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Re: For RBD Fans: International Today?

Postby xram » Sat Apr 06, 2013 1:58 pm

gkaplan wrote:Is there a point to this?


Just sharing the numbers.
Are we running out of Internet space?
VTI, VBR, VTWV, SCHH, VXUS, VEA, VWO, VSS, FM, VNQI, VBTLX, VFITX, SCHP, VWITX, IBONDS, EEBONDS, EF(EverBank), UTAH-529
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