OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

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RTR2006
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OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by RTR2006 »

All, I am keenly aware of the protocols of posting here. So, I ask this in the spirit of investing (think 'risk tolerance' on a grander, global scale), but here goes:

With the world on the verge of going into the crapper (political unrest and upheaval in the Mideast, Portugal and Greece being taken out behind the woodshed by Germany for not behaving, the Strait of Hormuz now under a more watchful eye than in the past, and the US enjoying what I'd certainly call a jobless recovery),

why is the stock market doing so well? Are these all really non-issues? I mean, the Dow back on the verge of 13,000? Really?

:confused

RTR

Please, no politics in your replies or you'll make me post a picture of my "Eldridge Cleaver for President" button!
hsv_climber
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by hsv_climber »

It is quite simple really - Stock market is doing well because NFC team has won the SuperBowl.
livesoft
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by livesoft »

It's the Same Ol' Same Ol', so nothing has changed. (But hey, US is out of Iraq and getting out of Afghanistan.) And neutrinos are not faster than light. That means All is Well in The World.
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Index Fan
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by Index Fan »

The world has been going to Hades for quite a while now. It used to be the Cold War with nuclear armageddon immanent, before that it was World War I and then World War II and the world was going up in flames, it used to be the Civil War with the US tearing itself apart, etc. etc.

Perhaps this time the world is literally falling apart. But many people in the past thought the same thing, and they were wrong. So the market carries on, until it doesn't. Don't expect the market to think, 'hey, we're screwed' and go to zero ahead of time. It'll only go to zero if and when we're actually falling apart.
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yobria
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by yobria »

Yep, the zombie apocolypse is no doubt only hours away. That's why I live in a bunker in Montana...
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CaliJim
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by CaliJim »

I heard Steve Pinker on the radio the other day. He says we are more at peace today than any time in human history.

http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/pinker0 ... index.html
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NAVigator
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by NAVigator »

Despite your "talk radio doom and gloom", the conditions seem to have bottomed and there is some optimism in many areas for the future. There are too many examples that would be judged to be political or economic. Turn off the news and read some reports that are issued frequently - the ones that contain facts rather than spin.

Jerry
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Atilla
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by Atilla »

I'm a generally optimistic person, but I do keep some cash in a safe and a some extra canned goods in the pantry.

I can walk out back and (illegally) shoot fowl & small game if needed. Squirrel and rabbit mix real good together in a stew. The wild turkey tribe we got out back is tame enough I could walk up and shoot one out of a tree with a revolver.

And there's multiple loaded and handy firearms on both levels of the house and a good ammo stash. All members of the household are familiar with and know how to operate all of them. High quality self-defense hollow point loads all around from 22 magnum up to 40 cal S&W rounds.

I got a Seecamp 32 coming next month. Those little beauties are a true work of art.

Plus a big barky dog to sound the alarm when necessary (or not necessary). :lol
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greg24
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by greg24 »

The world is always on the verge of the crapper. We spent decades on the verge of total nuclear destruction, which was worse than what we now face.

The market climbs a wall of worry.
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bottlecap
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by bottlecap »

If I could figure it out, I wouldn't tell you!
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bob90245
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by bob90245 »

RTR2006 wrote:With the world on the verge of going into the crapper (political unrest and upheaval in the Mideast, Portugal and Greece being taken out behind the woodshed by Germany for not behaving, the Strait of Hormuz now under a more watchful eye than in the past, and the US enjoying what I'd certainly call a jobless recovery),

why is the stock market doing so well? Are these all really non-issues? I mean, the Dow back on the verge of 13,000? Really?

:confused

RTR
Well, apparently you haven't heard the old Wall Street expression, "The market climbs a wall of worry."

The other answer might be investors are "Irrationally Exuberant". But I don't see evidence of that.
Ignore the market noise. Keep to your rebalancing schedule whether that is semi-annual, annual or trigger bands.
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GregLee
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by GregLee »

I think Mr. Market is telling you not to be so pessimistic.
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staythecourse
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by staythecourse »

Good question.

It is well known the market is random over short periods of time. Anything can happen over short periods of time. Surprisingly bad or, as it is now, surprisingly bad.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle
pkcrafter
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by pkcrafter »

Classic example of why it's futile to try to time things.

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
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tadamsmar
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by tadamsmar »

RTR2006 wrote:All, I am keenly aware of the protocols of posting here. So, I ask this in the spirit of investing (think 'risk tolerance' on a grander, global scale), but here goes:

With the world on the verge of going into the crapper (political unrest and upheaval in the Mideast, Portugal and Greece being taken out behind the woodshed by Germany for not behaving, the Strait of Hormuz now under a more watchful eye than in the past, and the US enjoying what I'd certainly call a jobless recovery),

why is the stock market doing so well? Are these all really non-issues? I mean, the Dow back on the verge of 13,000? Really?

:confused

RTR

Please, no politics in your replies or you'll make me post a picture of my "Eldridge Cleaver for President" button!

If the market is efficient, then that could explain why its fluxuations are confusing to anyone that thinks your question need to have an answer.
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tc101
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by tc101 »

With the world on the verge of going into the crapper
The world seems wonderfully safe and stable compared to when I grew up. At that time the USA and the USSR had thousands of nuclear bombs on missles aimed at each other and ready to fire at any time. That actually could have destroyed everything. There is nothing that dangerous today. I feel happy and relaxed. Mankind will continue for a while.
. | The most important thing you should know about me is that I am not an expert.
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Noobvestor
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by Noobvestor »

tadamsmar wrote:
RTR2006 wrote:All, I am keenly aware of the protocols of posting here. So, I ask this in the spirit of investing (think 'risk tolerance' on a grander, global scale), but here goes:

With the world on the verge of going into the crapper (political unrest and upheaval in the Mideast, Portugal and Greece being taken out behind the woodshed by Germany for not behaving, the Strait of Hormuz now under a more watchful eye than in the past, and the US enjoying what I'd certainly call a jobless recovery),

why is the stock market doing so well? Are these all really non-issues? I mean, the Dow back on the verge of 13,000? Really?

:confused

RTR

Please, no politics in your replies or you'll make me post a picture of my "Eldridge Cleaver for President" button!

If the market is efficient, then that could explain why its fluxuations are confusing to anyone that thinks your question need to have an answer.
I'm not sure I understand you here, but in case I do: efficient markets != no noise, at least not weak/semi-strong efficiency theory variants.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
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norookie
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by norookie »

:moneybag
Last edited by norookie on Thu May 17, 2012 12:37 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Tuxx
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by Tuxx »

World wise loose monetary policy.

Get ready for $5.00 a gallon gas.
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fishnskiguy
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by fishnskiguy »

norookie wrote::mrgreen: I rebalanced @ SP500 13k. Wrong or right, it was right 4 me w/ few yrs ago RTM SP500 @15kish.> <shrug> JMO, Mkts up so much because theres little other alternative for investor John Smith. I might have missed the additional 2k(SP1500) its heading to, but I'll take that chance. :D
No offense, but you have been texting on your smart phone a bit too much. :lol:

Chris
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Rick Ferri
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by Rick Ferri »

A better question to ask is why the market stayed down for so long given three years of decent US economic growth and record corporate profits? The answer is an overabundance of fear, which is only now subsiding.

Rick Ferri
Last edited by Rick Ferri on Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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madbrain
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by madbrain »

Le marché a ses raisons que la raison ne connaît point.
Nukeboilermaker
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by Nukeboilermaker »

livesoft wrote:It's the Same Ol' Same Ol', so nothing has changed. (But hey, US is out of Iraq and getting out of Afghanistan.) And neutrinos are not faster than light. That means All is Well in The World.
I almost made a smart*SS remark about the neutrinos... But Alas! I would like to say though that there really is something traveling faster than the speed light at this very moment! :lol
Default User BR
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by Default User BR »

hsv_climber wrote:It is quite simple really - Stock market is doing well because NFC team has won the SuperBowl.
And the Cardinals won the World Series.


Brian
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BHCadet
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by BHCadet »

Don't worry.
One day it will come back down... :wink:
jacksprat
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by jacksprat »

OK, I gotta ask you. WHY does it matter ? :?:

Seriously, If your're investing and making money then would understanding the why change the outcome or alter your direction ?

Mr. Market is irrational IMHO, so there is no rational answer to your question I think.

Regards,

jacksprat
sscritic
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by sscritic »

RTR2006 wrote: Please, no politics in your replies or you'll make me post a picture of my "Eldridge Cleaver for President" button!
I really don't want to make this political, but I would really like to see a picture of an "Eldridge Cleaver for President" button. Could you post it even if I don't make a political comment?
mptfan
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by mptfan »

tc101 wrote: The world seems wonderfully safe and stable compared to when I grew up. At that time the USA and the USSR had thousands of nuclear bombs on missles aimed at each other and ready to fire at any time. That actually could have destroyed everything. There is nothing that dangerous today. I feel happy and relaxed. Mankind will continue for a while.
There are still thousands of nuclear bombs on missiles ready to fire at any time. I don't know where they are aimed, but I am confident they can be aimed anywhere with a few moments notice.
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ddb
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by ddb »

The "market", as measured by S&P 500 price index, is at approximately the same level as it was in April 2011. It is below where it was in October 2007. It is below where it was in was in March 2000. It's about equal to where it was in July 1999.

So, in nearly 13 years, the price of the S&P 500 has gone nowhere. Investors in this index have earned dividends, which have been consumed by inflation. So...who is claiming that the market is up so much?

- DDB
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Sbashore
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by Sbashore »

I think it's momentum from the January effect. :)
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Dougie944
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by Dougie944 »

Tuxx had it right. World wide loose monetary policy.

We pay for that policy in higher commodity prices and unending bubbles as the money has to flow somewhere until the prices build to an unsustainable level. Affects poorer countries more as food prices increase.
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RTR2006
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by RTR2006 »

sscritic wrote:I would really like to see a picture of an "Eldridge Cleaver for President" button. Could you post it even if I don't make a political comment?
:D

Yes, I'll try to find it over the weekend, take a picture of it and post it.

Stay tuned!

(and thank you all for your perspectives! I feel much better now!)


RTR
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tadamsmar
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by tadamsmar »

Noobvestor wrote:
tadamsmar wrote:If the market is efficient, then that could explain why its fluxuations are confusing to anyone that thinks your question need to have an answer.
I'm not sure I understand you here, but in case I do: efficient markets != no noise, at least not weak/semi-strong efficiency theory variants.
I said nothing about noise, did not mean it to be taken that way.

For markets, efficient implies unpredictable. The price is the leading indicator in a efficient market. If there is a known systematic way to identify the event that will cause a price rise in advance of the rise, then the market is not efficient.

One of the ways that a market can be unpredictable is that you cannot identify the cause after even the event occurs. You can't answer the question "why did it go up?". Of course, this is not the only way that one gets unpredictability, so it's not a necessary condition.
billjohnson
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by billjohnson »

Tuxx wrote:World wise loose monetary policy.
Exactly...[political comment removd by Mod]If you sold all your investments on January 1, 2012....how many [gallons of gasoline, ounces of gold, etc, etc] would it have bought you? What about if you sold now? Market is probably slightly down this year in terms of real purchasing power...but everyone is so happy, feeling more wealthy, and ready to spend some $$$. [political comment removed by Mod]
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StealthWealth
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by StealthWealth »

I have to agree with ddb, is it really up that much? If you believe that in the long term the market will trend upwards, then things are more "starting to head in the right direction" than "the market is up so much". I do not pay a ton of attention to the daily trends but looking at the ole portfolio, it is up but not by enough to make me think things are going bananas...
VennData
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by VennData »

RTR2006 wrote:With the world on the verge of going into the crapper
It isn't.
Nathan Drake
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by Nathan Drake »

Market is still down compared to 2007 and 1999....
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fundtalker123
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by fundtalker123 »

Flight from quality?

i.e., flight from 0% yield treasury bonds, perhaps?
james22
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by james22 »

A. $2 trillion in central bank printed liquidity.
Shireman28
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by Shireman28 »

Supply and demand. More people want to invest money in the market than withdraw it it right now.
RobG
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by RobG »

yobria wrote:Yep, the zombie apocolypse is no doubt only hours away. That's why I live in a bunker in Montana...
I have a few left over from 2000 if anyone wants to buy one.
Stay thrifty my friends.
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Re: OK, I gotta ask...

Post by rustymutt »

yobria wrote:Yep, the zombie apocolypse is no doubt only hours away. That's why I live in a bunker in Montana...
Howdy neighbor. Is your bunker complete with a water source like ours?
Even educators need education. And some can be hard headed to the point of needing time out.
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tadamsmar
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by tadamsmar »

VennData wrote:
RTR2006 wrote:With the world on the verge of going into the crapper
It isn't.
With the world on that gleaming, clean, safe porcelian area near the edge of the crapper pit, where it always is, what's a market to do?
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tadamsmar
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by tadamsmar »

Short skirts are back (saw one today)

Short skirts often make Mr. Market go up.
millewk
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by millewk »

It's an election year and the tenor of the media has decidedly changed over the past six months. No question the economy is recovering, however, the media are much more positive in spinning the corporate results and political ramifications. I won’t say they have an agenda….that’s for you to decide.
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RTR2006
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by RTR2006 »

sscritic wrote:I would really like to see a picture of an "Eldridge Cleaver for President" button. Could you post it even if I don't make a political comment?
Image

Remember, no political comments!

:D

RTR
manuvns
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by manuvns »

Yawn !!! waiting for s&p to get to 1560 to rebalance
Thanks!
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thirdman
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by thirdman »

james22 wrote:A. $2 trillion in central bank printed liquidity.
Agree
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tooluser
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by tooluser »

I haven't been able to find the quote, and it's a real one written down somewhere, but it goes something likes this:

"The kids today have no idea what is right and what it wrong. They have no interest in anything meaningful. Their lives seem to be a waste. My goodness how things are decaying. There is clearly no hope for the future."
-- some ancient philospher, c. 1100 B.C.
Like good comrades to the utmost of their strength, we shall go on to the end. -- Winston Churchill
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GregLee
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Re: OK, I gotta ask... [why market up so much]

Post by GregLee »

tooluser wrote:I haven't been able to find the quote,...
Perhaps this (apochryphal)? :
"Our Earth is degenerate in these later days; there are signs that the world is speedily coming to an end; bribery and corruption are common; children no longer obey their parents; every man wants to write a book and the end of the world is evidently approaching." From an Assyrian clay tablet, circa 2800 BC.
http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/quest ... n-assyrian
Greg, retired 8/10.
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