Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

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Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Sun Dec 18, 2011 11:38 pm

Grok’s Tip #11: Take Grok’s pledge.

Recently, looking at some of the bad behaviors during the recent boom years, graduating MBA students came up with the idea of an oath:
http://mbaoath.org/take-the-oath/

Here is Michael Lewis’s comical take:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/co ... 337514.htm

So I figure if MBA’s can have an oath, we Bogleheads can have one too and I figured I would start the ball rolling. Except I don’t really believe in oaths so perhaps let’s call this a pledge instead:

1) I will index at least half of my equities.
(viewtopic.php?t=66408)

2) I will own some international equities
This has been a rough recent period for US investors with international equity allocations. Europe is looking like a train wreck, Japan has gone nowhere for DECADES, and the shine is off Emerging Markets. Stay the course I say! For example, see this for my recent thoughts on Europe.
(viewtopic.php?t=84168)
William Bernstein of course said it much better than me.
http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videoC ... ?id=397761

3) I will own at least 20% bonds in my portfolio:
Benjamin Graham’s rule of thumb was to always have at least 25% of your portfolio in bonds. And yet young and/or aggressive investors sometimes propose putting 100% (or more!) of their portfolio into equities. Vanguard itself puts 90% of the Target Date 2050 fund into stocks. The rationale for this seems to be the belief that, over long enough periods of time, stocks will beat bonds.
And yet:
a) Looking decade by decade, stocks have only beat bonds in 3 of the past 5 decades:
(http://www.raymondjames.com/weisswealth ... Decade.pdf)

b) Over the past 30 year period, Bonds have beat stocks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-3 ... ntury.html

The reality is, as William Goldman used to say “Nobody knows nothing”. Faced with uncertainty, wise investors spread their bets. Do yourself a favor- buy some bonds!

4) I will avoid funky bonds like junk bonds, convertibles, structured CDs, etc.
Take your risk on the equity side! (viewtopic.php?t=66322)

5) I will own some ibonds or TIPs.
(viewtopic.php?t=71927)

6) I will not try to time the market. (See William Goldman quote above!)

7) Instead I will evaluate my portfolio for rebalancing at least once a year.
Even if I am too chicken to rebalance (think March 2009) I promise not to sell out of my stocks
when the market is down (viewtopic.php?t=66636)


8) I will not put more than 10% of my portfolio in the stock of my employer
(because maybe I work for the next Enron and don’t know it. Again see William Goldman quote above).

9) I will not put more than 10% of my portfolio in individual stocks
(viewtopic.php?t=66408)

10) I will not sell covered calls:
Selling covered calls on your stocks has never made any sense to me. You cap the upside from holding stocks in exchange for a small option premium, yet get to keep all the downside. What a deal huh! This maneuver is so obviously boneheadedly wrong, it puts me in mind of a Seinfeld episode when George Costanza, faced with multiple life failures, decides that going forward he will do the “opposite” of his instincts. If selling covered calls is obviously wrong, then perhaps one should consider BUYING calls instead such as LEAPs.
(viewtopic.php?t=71927)
Note I’m not really strongly recommending buying calls. I think the sensible thing for most people is probably to avoid options altogether. Relatedly, another thing to avoid would be buying callable bonds- i.e. bonds with an embedded call option in them. Again here you get to keep all the interest rate risk downside of holding these bonds (if interest rates spike they will lose value) but give away the interest rate upside (if interest rates fall they will be called away from you, usually at par) usually for small increase in yield.

Note: this tip is part of a series of investing tips. The full series can be found here:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=72045

cheers,
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby Jazzman » Mon Dec 19, 2011 7:28 am

I will take Grok's pledge. Your pledge should be required reading for all serious investors. Thanks so much.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby nisiprius » Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:59 am

Grok, this is amazing. Yes, I can take your pledge pretty easily, because I literally have been doing all ten of these, continuously, no exceptions, for at least twenty years. Of course, the reason is that you've been so gentle and non-dogmatic that you leave plenty of scope for individuality. Nevertheless, it is not a vacuous pledge.

Thanks for the loopholes, though! Such as only insisting on "some" international equities. Yes, I have "some!" And thanks for "Even if I am too chicken to rebalance (think March 2009) I promise not to sell out of my stocks." I was too chicken to rebalance (some threads discussing the general issue of rebalancing on the way down have helped me, not to become bolder, but to rationalize my timidity), but I did not sell.

Descending from happy agreement into entertaining debate... how does your dislike of callable bonds translate into the ever-popular debate here on the government mortgage bonds in the BarCap Aggregate index, and thus in the Vanguard Total Bond Index Fund?
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby peppers » Mon Dec 19, 2011 9:49 am

I do. The last time I said that I was standing in a church and that merger has been working out just fine.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby Grt2bOutdoors » Mon Dec 19, 2011 9:57 am

Darn it! I could have taken the pledge with the exception of Rule #9. Oh well, I will have to watch from the bleachers.......
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby JPH » Mon Dec 19, 2011 12:02 pm

I can subscribe to this. Number 6 has tempted me this past year, mostly to buy not sell.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby louis c » Mon Dec 19, 2011 12:08 pm

I could have taken the pledge but for #4 since I own junk bonds. Oh well.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby LadyGeek » Mon Dec 19, 2011 3:57 pm

I was fine until number 10. Newbie question, as the wording is confusing for those not familiar with the concept: Can you please explain what a covered call is? If I owned an individual stock, I don't own a call option (or do I?). Then, you jump into buying calls, such as LEAP - but it's still confusing.

The wiki is updated: Grok's tips
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby Midwest_Investor » Mon Dec 19, 2011 4:24 pm

Looks good. I too am confused by the last point, so I'll just avoid options altogether.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby nisiprius » Mon Dec 19, 2011 4:41 pm

LadyGeek wrote:I was fine until number 10. Newbie question, as the wording is confusing for those not familiar with the concept: Can you please explain what a covered call is? If I owned an individual stock, I don't own a call option (or do I?). Then, you jump into buying calls, such as LEAP - but it's still confusing.

The wiki is updated: Grok's tips
Hey, I figured, if I don't even know what he's talking about, I'm probably not doing it. :)

Besides, I don't think a broker will even let you do it unless you give them a signed statement in blood saying you're a big kid, you love risk, and are cool with the idea of investments losing 100% or more of their value. So if you don't remember signing that extra statement, you probably haven't sold any covered calls.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby imflyboy » Mon Dec 19, 2011 4:59 pm

Grok I like most of what you say, although I'd like to discuss to point on covered calls. I just sold my first call on a position I own. I know my cost basis, sold well above it and will keep the premium. I guess the question is, have I lost if the price moves up and I'm called? Also when buying a call you're certainly not guaranteed to make a profit even when buying an expensive, deeply in the money call. Plus you'll still have to overcome time decay. Overall I like what you posted but could you shed more light on this?

Thanks!
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby Sam I Am » Mon Dec 19, 2011 5:14 pm

Message deleted.
Last edited by Sam I Am on Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby Bongleur » Mon Dec 19, 2011 5:18 pm

With this 11th tip, now I'm getting 10 notification emails (for Tips 1 thru 10) telling me that Tip 11 exists.

Maybe its time for a single Groks Tips Notification Thread to which we can subscribe? Add its link to the 1st post in every thread.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby wbond » Mon Dec 19, 2011 5:21 pm

Antti Ilmanen in "Expected Returns" has a helpful chapter on the strategy of "selling equity index volatility," or something to that effect, which includes selling covered calls.

My recollection is that, while it seems that before costs this should be a zero-sum game, that during periods of relative stability (the great moderation, and all that) that this has been a profitable strategy since the realized volatility on the equity indices have been less than the implied volatility of the options. But with covered calls you are essentially combining a long equity position with selling volatility, or selling financial catatstrophe insurance. So, you tend to do better during good times, but worse during bad (e.g. 2008 and then it's recovery).

I am open to correction if I have misstated the above.

Grok's point is well taken. If you don't understand what you're doing really well, and why, and what the literature shows, etc. then stay away. In addition, if the risk/reward ratio seems too good to be true, there's probably an unmeasured risk, most likely the risk that you'll realize losses at the worst time.

Cheers, wbond
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby LadyGeek » Mon Dec 19, 2011 5:27 pm

Bongleur wrote:With this 11th tip, now I'm getting 10 notification emails (for Tips 1 thru 10) telling me that Tip 11 exists.

Maybe its time for a single Groks Tips Notification Thread to which we can subscribe? Add its link to the 1st post in every thread.

Actually, a thread does exist: Grok's Investment Tips:, in the Wiki and Reference Library. It's also the last link at the bottom of Post #1. Subscribe to that.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby cinghiale » Mon Dec 19, 2011 5:58 pm

Hi, my name is cinghiale, and I'm a Boglehead.

There. That felt good.

I promise to attend my BA meetings on a regular basis to keep on the straight and narrow.

Good work, Grok!
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby envinv » Mon Dec 19, 2011 6:48 pm

I'm not certain I can take the pledge based on potential noncompliance with #5, TIPS or iBonds. I currently do not hold either of these as a separate allocation. Does my slice of Total Bond Market (VBMFX, BND) include either of these?
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby yobria » Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:20 pm

Since there are no free lunches, and more risk = more expected return, there is no reason to limit my stock holdings to 80% (except for recency bias).

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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby jginseattle » Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:23 pm

I'm on board.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby Chuck T » Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:52 pm

I am pleased to say I am fully compliant and will remain so. Thanks Grok
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby BigFoot48 » Mon Dec 19, 2011 9:22 pm

I'm living the Grok Pledge life - all 10 of them, but unsubscribing from this thread in 3, 2,
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby LadyGeek » Mon Dec 19, 2011 9:44 pm

I updated Grok's Investment Tips: for Tip #11, and put a link in the wiki.

Wiki article link: Grok's tips

Since I don't invest in anything I don't understand (#10), I comply with all the points. By posting in Grok's thread (anyone can), I'm automatically subscribed to the updates.

(Update: To clarify, missing #10 means I can't claim to grok the pledge.)
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby bob90245 » Mon Dec 19, 2011 10:13 pm

Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Done. I proudly join the Grokheads. :wink:
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby wawoodjr » Mon Dec 19, 2011 10:42 pm

Oops, #4 got me as well (High yield bonds). Maybe Grok could make a similar exception like he did for individual stocks and employer stock and agree to limit junk bonds to 10% of bond allocation for those of us that believe Rick Ferri may have a valid point. Otherwise I'm on board with the rest.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby stevewolfe » Mon Dec 19, 2011 11:19 pm

envinv wrote:Does my slice of Total Bond Market (VBMFX, BND) include either of these?

No.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Mon Dec 19, 2011 11:43 pm

Jazzman wrote:I will take Grok's pledge. Your pledge should be required reading for all serious investors. Thanks so much.

Jazzman,
Your welcome. Thanks for your kind words.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:25 am

nisiprius wrote:Grok, this is amazing. Yes, I can take your pledge pretty easily, because I literally have been doing all ten of these, continuously, no exceptions, for at least twenty years. Of course, the reason is that you've been so gentle and non-dogmatic that you leave plenty of scope for individuality. Nevertheless, it is not a vacuous pledge.

Thanks for the loopholes, though! Such as only insisting on "some" international equities. Yes, I have "some!" And thanks for "Even if I am too chicken to rebalance (think March 2009) I promise not to sell out of my stocks." I was too chicken to rebalance (some threads discussing the general issue of rebalancing on the way down have helped me, not to become bolder, but to rationalize my timidity), but I did not sell.

Descending from happy agreement into entertaining debate... how does your dislike of callable bonds translate into the ever-popular debate here on the government mortgage bonds in the BarCap Aggregate index, and thus in the Vanguard Total Bond Index Fund?

Thanks Nisi, you hit the nail on the head. I was trying to be relatively non-dogmatic but still meaningful. I like your "not vacuous" turn of phrase.

Re the mortgage bonds (MBS), rather than rehash some words, let's look at some recent stats:

Barclays MBS Index @ 12/31/10:
Yield= 3.67% yield
Duration = 4.16
convexity = -1.30
YTD return @12/19/11 = 5.98%

5 year treasury @12/31/10
Yield = 2.01%
Duration = 4.81
convexity = 0.26
YTD return @12/19/11 = 9.36%

So this illustrates nicely my point that when you buy callable bonds such as MBS you are capping or giving away some interest rate risk upside- i.e. you will benefit less when interest rates drop.

cheers,
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:38 am

peppers wrote:I do. The last time I said that I was standing in a church and that merger has been working out just fine.

Glad to hear it!
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:40 am

GRT2BOUTDOORS wrote:Darn it! I could have taken the pledge with the exception of Rule #9. Oh well, I will have to watch from the bleachers.......

Well don't hold out on us. What are some of these individual stocks you own...
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby ofcmetz » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:45 am

I'm barely over 20% bonds.

So I have taken the pledge. Now I want the T-shirt.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:46 am

JPH wrote:I can subscribe to this. Number 6 has tempted me this past year, mostly to buy not sell.

Thanks JPH. Yeah its been an interesting year. I'm sure you know the Buffet quote on market timing...
Warren Buffet wrote:Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

It doesn't feel to me like there is real fear out there in the markets yet. Not like '08/'09 anyway...
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:47 am

louis c wrote:I could have taken the pledge but for #4 since I own junk bonds. Oh well.

Hi louis,
what junk bond fund do you own?
cheers,
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby mt » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:52 am

I can easily take that pledge.

When I run the rebalance numbers in a couple weeks I fully expect to need to buy more international stock (Vanguard Developed Market Index for me).
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:58 am

LadyGeek wrote:I was fine until number 10. Newbie question, as the wording is confusing for those not familiar with the concept: Can you please explain what a covered call is? If I owned an individual stock, I don't own a call option (or do I?). Then, you jump into buying calls, such as LEAP - but it's still confusing.

The wiki is updated: Grok's tips

Hi LadyGeek,
Sorry for the confusion. No when you own an individual stock you don't own a call option.
Selling a covered call is when you own a stock and then sell (aka write) a call option against it.
Say you own AT&T which is currently trading at $28.74. You could sell a call option with a strike of $30 that expires in mid March 2012 (i.e. 3 months from now) for 0.29.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=T&m=2012-03

If the stock rises above $30 during those 3 months it will get called away from you- i.e. you will be sold out of it for $30. So in exchange for the 0.29 you will miss any upside above $30. But you will get to keep all of the downside of the stock- i.e. if it goes bankrupt your shares will become worthless.

Does that explain it?
p.s. thanks for updating the wiki...
cheers,
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby Beagler » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:06 am

grok87 wrote:2) I will own some international equities


So, Mr. Bogle won't be a pledge.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:09 am

imflyboy wrote:Grok I like most of what you say, although I'd like to discuss to point on covered calls. I just sold my first call on a position I own. I know my cost basis, sold well above it and will keep the premium. I guess the question is, have I lost if the price moves up and I'm called? Also when buying a call you're certainly not guaranteed to make a profit even when buying an expensive, deeply in the money call. Plus you'll still have to overcome time decay. Overall I like what you posted but could you shed more light on this?

Thanks!

Hi imflyboy,
Well again I don't like the risk profile. Instead of capped upside and unlimited downside (what you get when your write a covered call) I'd rather have capped downside and unlimited upside.
Let me elaborate a bit further. Index funds (what I recommend) sound simple but if you pop the hood on their returns I think you'll find a lot of the return is driven by the large performance of a few stocks. That's one of the secrets of indexing- by owning as broad a swath of the market as possible you minimize your chance of missing these big winners. So I don't like the covered call play for two reasons. First it generally involves individual stocks, so you've already made a much more focused bet on a single name and the odds are low that that stock will be one of the big winners. Then you go and cap your upside by selling a call. But you still have all the downside left, an individual stock can go to zero where an index really can't. It all seems backward to me from the idea of optimizing risk/return.
Can you talk a little about why you wanted to sell the covered call, what you were trying to achieve in your portfolio?
cheers,
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:10 am

Sam I Am wrote:
louis c wrote:I could have taken the pledge but for #4 since I own junk bonds. Oh well.


Sigh, yeah, #4 nailed me also. We'll just have to stand by the windows and listen to what is going on inside Cathedral Grok! Hopefully the service will be loud enough for us to hear.

Sam I Am

Hi Sam,
ok so what junk bond fund do you own/like?
cheers,
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:12 am

Bongleur wrote:With this 11th tip, now I'm getting 10 notification emails (for Tips 1 thru 10) telling me that Tip 11 exists.

Maybe its time for a single Groks Tips Notification Thread to which we can subscribe? Add its link to the 1st post in every thread.

Hmm...I'm not 100% sure of why that is. Does that mean you've posted on every one of my 11 tips? If so I'm flattered!
cheers,
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:14 am

wbond wrote:Antti Ilmanen in "Expected Returns" has a helpful chapter on the strategy of "selling equity index volatility," or something to that effect, which includes selling covered calls.

My recollection is that, while it seems that before costs this should be a zero-sum game, that during periods of relative stability (the great moderation, and all that) that this has been a profitable strategy since the realized volatility on the equity indices have been less than the implied volatility of the options. But with covered calls you are essentially combining a long equity position with selling volatility, or selling financial catatstrophe insurance. So, you tend to do better during good times, but worse during bad (e.g. 2008 and then it's recovery).

I am open to correction if I have misstated the above.

Grok's point is well taken. If you don't understand what you're doing really well, and why, and what the literature shows, etc. then stay away. In addition, if the risk/reward ratio seems too good to be true, there's probably an unmeasured risk, most likely the risk that you'll realize losses at the worst time.

Cheers, wbond

Thanks- I'll try to find it and read it. I was mostly talking about selling calls on individual stocks though. See my post responding to imflyboy above.
cheers,
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:17 am

cinghiale wrote:Hi, my name is cinghiale, and I'm a Boglehead.

There. That felt good.

I promise to attend my BA meetings on a regular basis to keep on the straight and narrow.

Good work, Grok!

Thanks cinghiale,
so I guess your saying there should be a "12 steps" for reformed market timers and other poor behaviors?
:)
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:18 am

envinv wrote:I'm not certain I can take the pledge based on potential noncompliance with #5, TIPS or iBonds. I currently do not hold either of these as a separate allocation. Does my slice of Total Bond Market (VBMFX, BND) include either of these?

Only 14 days left to get your paper Ibonds.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:20 am

yobria wrote:Since there are no free lunches, and more risk = more expected return, there is no reason to limit my stock holdings to 80% (except for recency bias).

Nick

more risk probably does = more return but I think the law of diminishing returns applies. Check out the efficient frontiers in my original post. I'm not sure 100/0 is really that much better than 80/20.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:20 am

jginseattle wrote:I'm on board.

cool
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:21 am

Chuck T wrote:I am pleased to say I am fully compliant and will remain so. Thanks Grok

Chuck,
Glad to hear it- your welcome.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:25 am

BigFoot48 wrote:I'm living the Grok Pledge life - all 10 of them, but unsubscribing from this thread in 3, 2,

1, blastoff?
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:26 am

ofcmetz wrote:I'm barely over 20% bonds. :peace

So I have taken the pledge. Now I want the T-shirt.

interesting idea. I'm still waiting for them to come out with Boglehead t-shirts though...
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:28 am

bob90245 wrote:Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Done. I proudly join the Grokheads. :wink:

cool.
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:29 am

wawoodjr wrote:Oops, #4 got me as well (High yield bonds). Maybe Grok could make a similar exception like he did for individual stocks and employer stock and agree to limit junk bonds to 10% of bond allocation for those of us that believe Rick Ferri may have a valid point. Otherwise I'm on board with the rest.

hmm,...I'll post more on why I don't like junk bonds tomorrow. It will involve the word clawback...
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:31 am

mt wrote:I can easily take that pledge.

When I run the rebalance numbers in a couple weeks I fully expect to need to buy more international stock (Vanguard Developed Market Index for me).

Interesting. So no EM at all?
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Re: Grok's Tip #11: Take Grok's pledge!

Postby grok87 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:32 am

Beagler wrote:
grok87 wrote:2) I will own some international equities


So, Mr. Bogle won't be a pledge.

Actually the last I saw Mr. Bogle was recommending a 20% allocation to Emerging Markets stocks. Maybe somebody can post the link...
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