Where is the economy right now?

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Disregarding official pronouncements of growth/recession, how do you think the U.S. economy is doing right now?

Mild/Moderate Recession
51
68%
A Modern-Day Depression
12
16%
A Modern-Day Depression
12
16%
 
Total votes: 75

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OkieIndexer
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Where is the economy right now?

Post by OkieIndexer »

Disregarding official pronouncements of growth or recession, where do you see the U.S. economy now?
FredPeterson
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Post by FredPeterson »

'Modern Day Depression' is so hard to express without people conjuring up notions of the great depression.

Since 'modern day' implies things being drastically different, one has to figure that the iconic pictures of the 30's with people standing in bread lines is *not* how we have to think about it. SNAP and unemployment, that keeps being extended, are the new bread lines. Massive mass food production didn't exist in the 30's. Super Walmarts and Targets didn't exist back then. It is simply *way* easier to hand this stuff out digitally and make the visible picture of a bread line non-existent.

Since those figures keep going up and up...I'm hard pressed to say anything rosier then entering a 'severe recession' and bordering on depression. Some parts of the economy always grow, regardless of the macro picture. So pointing to any growth is pointless. Take out inflation and lets see where the growth is even on some of the core economic components.
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tadamsmar
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Post by tadamsmar »

Disregarding math, 2+2 =

1
2
3
4
5
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Opponent Process
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Post by Opponent Process »

the top and the bottom seem to be growing.
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Grt2bOutdoors
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Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

Severe recession.

I don't need to read newspapers or watch the news to see it in action. If you don't have a job, you can have a partial safety net in the form of SNAP and unemployment benefits, however, that may not be enough to sustain you.
unclemick
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Post by unclemick »

Growth. Farm country. New hiring signs in retail windows. Not reflected in local unemployment data yet.

heh heh heh - :wink: Of course I have been wrong before - that's why I buy balanced index funds. :lol: :lol:
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Opponent Process
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Post by Opponent Process »

unclemick wrote:Growth. Farm country. New hiring signs in retail windows.
reminds me of The Grapes of Wrath.
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tadamsmar
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Post by tadamsmar »

I voted growth. But slow growth, pretty close to flat.

The second quarter had a low growth rate. Retail sales are flat.

Just for grins, let's not disregard official data for a moment. It there any way to show that we are not already in recession this quarter
at this point?
hsv_climber
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Post by hsv_climber »

All these words are well defined, so I am not sure what exactly we should disregard.

Depression: 10% decline in GDP
Recession: GDP decline for 2 consecutive quarters.
Growth: GDP growth.

I am confused what exactly we should disregard.
Last Qtr. GDP had positive growth, so current state of US economy is "Growth".
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tadamsmar
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Post by tadamsmar »

hsv_climber wrote:All these words are well defined, so I am not sure what exactly we should disregard.

Depression: 10% decline in GDP
Recession: GDP decline for 2 consecutive quarters.
Growth: GDP growth.

I am confused what exactly we should disregard.
Last Qtr. GDP had positive growth, so current state of US economy is "Growth".
But. if this quarter and the next had declines, then wouldn't that make the current state Recession?
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Spades
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Post by Spades »

I'm putting my hat into the moderate recession guess.
rwwoods
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Post by rwwoods »

According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, real consumer spending, adjusted for inflation is higher now than it was at the peak in 2007 prior to the recession.
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/res ... ctive.html
"I'm not so much concerned about the return on my money as the return of my money" - Will Rogers
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Post by 3CT_Paddler »

As long as Europe's problems don't get much worse (Instead of just Greece defaulting, every member of the PIIGS default and bring down global banks with them)... my guess is (very) slow growth.

Even if hiring rebounds it will takes years for unemployment rates to approach 6%. Housing will continue to be stagnant in many areas as long as hiring/incomes growth is minimal.

Like someone else mentioned, the economy in farming communities appear to be plugging along due to higher commodity prices, and that might be a bright spot.
Don Robins
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Post by Don Robins »

The large part of our economy and jobs that is overseas in China, India, etc. is doing very well for those countries but terrible for us.
Alan S.
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Post by Alan S. »

hsv_climber wrote:All these words are well defined, so I am not sure what exactly we should disregard.

Depression: 10% decline in GDP
Recession: GDP decline for 2 consecutive quarters.
Growth: GDP growth.

I am confused what exactly we should disregard.
Last Qtr. GDP had positive growth, so current state of US economy is "Growth".
I think for purposes of this question where we assess what the economy is doing TODAY, we don't want to wait 6 months for two consecutive quarters to identify a recession. That is why many recessions are not made official until they are over with. If GDP is declining this week vrs last week, a snapshot will show decline. But because these snapshots are so time limited, they could change by next week. You make the call on how long the minimum evaluation period should be.
richard
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Post by richard »

hsv_climber wrote:All these words are well defined, so I am not sure what exactly we should disregard.

Depression: 10% decline in GDP
Recession: GDP decline for 2 consecutive quarters.
Growth: GDP growth.

I am confused what exactly we should disregard.
Last Qtr. GDP had positive growth, so current state of US economy is "Growth".
The NBER is generally regarded as the official arbiter of recessions. Their definitions are different than yours.
http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html
http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html
livesoft
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Post by livesoft »

tadamsmar wrote:Disregarding math, 2+2 =

...
5
5 is the right answer for large values of 2.


--Political comments deleted==
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tadamsmar
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Post by tadamsmar »

livesoft wrote:
tadamsmar wrote:Disregarding math, 2+2 =

...
5
5 is the right answer for large values of 2.


--Political comments deleted==

Disregarding all visual information, what color is my type:

1. Growth Green
2. Recesssion Grey
3. Depression Grey

(I am disregarding those political comments that have been deleted)
nycll
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Weak growth

Post by nycll »

Between growth and mild recession there should be a choice of weak growth. That is what it is now, the economy is growing but the growth is way below the 4.5% level which can meaningfully reduce unemployment.
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tadamsmar
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Post by tadamsmar »

I just heard Krugman say we were in a depression on Colbert. He has been using this language for a while:

--Political/economic link removed--


Krugman might want to answer 1 and 4. Growth during a depression is possible. As Krugman points out, there were periods of growth during the Great Depression.

:twisted: But Krugman points to a number of official pronouncements in the link I just cited, so you should disregard this post. :roll: :wink:
detifoss
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Post by detifoss »

I prefer the second great contraction (Rogoff).

It is the second balance sheet recession in the 1900's. The first one was pretty grim. It required a highly inflationary world war to get us out of it.

Japan is still stuck in their balance sheet recession.

So I was forced to pick a modern day depression, though I remain invested at my AA, and we are currently bumping along at very tepid growth. Exactly as would be expected during the long period of time that is required to repair unsustainable debts run up by households in the US, and by certain sovereigns overseas.
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Random Musings
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Post by Random Musings »

This isn't your father's Oldsmobile Economy.....

RM
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dLdV
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Post by dLdV »

detifoss wrote:I prefer the second great contraction (Rogoff).

It is the second balance sheet recession in the 1900's. The first one was pretty grim. It required a highly inflationary world war to get us out of it.

Japan is still stuck in their balance sheet recession.

So I was forced to pick a modern day depression, though I remain invested at my AA, and we are currently bumping along at very tepid growth. Exactly as would be expected during the long period of time that is required to repair unsustainable debts run up by households in the US, and by certain sovereigns overseas.
I would agree that what we had was a contraction, and we may oscillate between mild growth and recession for years before we see vigorous growth again. Domestically, there is no driver of increased demand, other than consumer needs, which are likely to remain static, given the state of the consumer. Our only path to growth is coupled to growth overseas.
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Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

dLdV wrote:
detifoss wrote:I prefer the second great contraction (Rogoff).

It is the second balance sheet recession in the 1900's. The first one was pretty grim. It required a highly inflationary world war to get us out of it.

Japan is still stuck in their balance sheet recession.

So I was forced to pick a modern day depression, though I remain invested at my AA, and we are currently bumping along at very tepid growth. Exactly as would be expected during the long period of time that is required to repair unsustainable debts run up by households in the US, and by certain sovereigns overseas.
I would agree that what we had was a contraction, and we may oscillate between mild growth and recession for years before we see vigorous growth again. Domestically, there is no driver of increased demand, other than consumer needs, which are likely to remain static, given the state of the consumer. Our only path to growth is coupled to growth overseas.
Where do you see that growth coming from? Ceertainly not in the land of austerity - Western Europe is out. Emerging markets? - perhaps, but I believe they will be catching a cold from us at some point in the near future. Hopefully, the cold does not turn into a flu.
SamB
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Post by SamB »

FredPeterson wrote: Super Walmarts and Targets didn't exist back then. It is simply *way* easier to hand this stuff out digitally and make the visible picture of a bread line non-existent.
You are forgetting the The Great Atlantic and Pacific Tea Company, otherwise known as the A & P. It was quite comparable to Walmart and Target in its day. It was also quite controversial in its effect on the mom and pop grocery stores. I do not know what impact A & P had during the Depression, however.

The term "recession" has always implied a short term event to me. I do not view the current economic state as short term. If modern depression means a long term event consisting of shorter term periods of anemic growth followed by short recessions, and there are no significant changes in employment, that would be my view.

Labor participation, and real unemployment rates would have to drop markedly for me to think otherwise. It is a modern depression.

Sam
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bottlecap
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Post by bottlecap »

I'm not sure exactly where the economy is right now, but when I look around all I see is porcelain, and I'm getting suspicious...

JT
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Post by FafnerMorell »

"The Great Depression: A Diary" by Benjamin Roth is a really eye-opening read. For folks living during the Depression, the economy wasn't as cut-n-dried as high school history class makes it seem - there were lots of false starts and "We're in a recovery, oh wait, we're not, oh wait, it's getting better. Wait, worse..."
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dLdV
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Post by dLdV »

GRT2BOUTDOORS wrote:
dLdV wrote:
detifoss wrote:I prefer the second great contraction (Rogoff).

It is the second balance sheet recession in the 1900's. The first one was pretty grim. It required a highly inflationary world war to get us out of it.

Japan is still stuck in their balance sheet recession.

So I was forced to pick a modern day depression, though I remain invested at my AA, and we are currently bumping along at very tepid growth. Exactly as would be expected during the long period of time that is required to repair unsustainable debts run up by households in the US, and by certain sovereigns overseas.
I would agree that what we had was a contraction, and we may oscillate between mild growth and recession for years before we see vigorous growth again. Domestically, there is no driver of increased demand, other than consumer needs, which are likely to remain static, given the state of the consumer. Our only path to growth is coupled to growth overseas.
Where do you see that growth coming from? Ceertainly not in the land of austerity - Western Europe is out. Emerging markets? - perhaps, but I believe they will be catching a cold from us at some point in the near future. Hopefully, the cold does not turn into a flu.
Here is my crackpot analysis, to be taken with a grain of salt. We in the West are victims of our own success. In developed countries, most common needs are met, and most of what I call "opportunity space", for lack of a better term, is largely occupied. The cost of satisfying the remaining need or want grows at some a^x curve, or it would already be done. This constrains opportunity space.

In contrast, opportunity space is abundant in poorly developed countries. The cost of attaining that next need, want or efficiency may be very low, and increasing on some shallow linear slope.

I don't know specifically where these opportunities lie, but they do exist, since the greater part of humanity is comparatively under developed. Having been a visitor to Korea in the 80's and 90's, I witnessed an incredible rate of development. There must be many places with ample opportunity space. Hopefully, there are many in the West with their eyes on the ball, searching out opportunities to develop for the best returns on capital investment.

Apologies for posting simplistic drivel. It's all I'm qualified to do. :)
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