U.S. stocks in freefall

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby livesoft » Tue Aug 07, 2012 2:22 pm

The Wizard wrote:Regardless, most folks did not buy into the total stock market in huge amounts on August 8th.
The bulk of their equity $$$ was there in July, 2011 as well.
So we're making out OK at this point, but the 26% gain number is just one of those volatility oddities.
It does help validate the principle of throwing additional funds into stocks on RBDs, obviously...

August 8, 2011 I remember it well:
viewtopic.php?p=1141682#p1141682
:) :)
It's all about short-term opportunistic rebalancing due to a short-term change in one's asset allocation, uh, I mean opportunistic rebalancing, uh I mean rebalancing, uh I mean market timing.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Jay69 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:02 pm

I must have the wrong radio station on in the my car this AM, they must have said "fiscal cliff" about 8 times in a 1/2 hour!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby hoppy08520 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:42 pm

Nice to see the S&P 500 top 1,400 again. I remember getting excited when it cracked 1,500 back in....2000!!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby ruralavalon » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:51 pm

HomerJ wrote:
hazlitt777 wrote:
umfundi wrote:
hazlitt777 wrote:This thread should be renamed, "US stocks on one heck of a rollercoaster"
You'll be able to tell your grandchildren, "I was an investor in 2012, and it was volatile both ways". :wink:

Keith


I hope I have more meaningful and entertaining stories to tell them. This ride is making me nauseated;>)


Still, you better tell them about it...

Otherwise, when it happens to them, they'll be thinking "This time it's different!" when really.... it's never different.

Lets all Remember. Lots of people pay good money to ride rollercoasters, just for the joy of it :) .
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Bongleur » Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:13 pm

Shows you that Sequence of Returns can be really important.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby ofcmetz » Tue Oct 23, 2012 8:04 pm

Hello Everybody,

Figured it was time to activate this old friend of a thread.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby baw703916 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 8:06 pm

ofcmetz wrote:Hello Everybody,

Figured it was time to activate this old friend of a thread.


LOL! 8-)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby DoWahDaddy » Tue Oct 23, 2012 8:07 pm

was wondering if i'd see this. As if 1% actually qualified as volatility. we are all spoiled. Short-term anyway.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby zaboomafoozarg » Tue Oct 23, 2012 8:32 pm

DoWahDaddy wrote:was wondering if i'd see this. As if 1% actually qualified as volatility. we are all spoiled. Short-term anyway.


And long-term we are all dead! :P
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby VictoriaF » Tue Oct 23, 2012 9:40 pm

baw703916 wrote:
ofcmetz wrote:Hello Everybody,

Figured it was time to activate this old friend of a thread.


LOL! 8-)


It's too much fun; it must be against the IRS rules for non-profits.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:17 pm

Maybe the rats haven't left the ship yet, but they're starting to line up. :idea:
If we have data, let’s look at data. If all we have are opinions, let’s go with mine. – Jim Barksdale
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Where is Lbill?

Postby bobcat2 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:43 pm

Does anyone know what has happened to Lbill, who is the OP of this thread? He was posting very frequently in April and early May, but nary a single post since then.

A few days ago I sent him a PM, but it is still sitting in my Outbox.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Firewood42 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:17 am

Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year. First time I have been totally out of the market since I started investing in stock mutual funds 40 years ago. At age 70 my wife and I need income. I have been looking at putting the money in VWINX or VWEAX or something similar from Fidelity.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Ed 2 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:37 am

livesoft wrote:
The Wizard wrote:Regardless, most folks did not buy into the total stock market in huge amounts on August 8th.
The bulk of their equity $$$ was there in July, 2011 as well.
So we're making out OK at this point, but the 26% gain number is just one of those volatility oddities.
It does help validate the principle of throwing additional funds into stocks on RBDs, obviously...

August 8, 2011 I remember it well:
viewtopic.php?p=1141682#p1141682
:) :)

oh yes, I remember it all,thank God i don't react as many do. :happy :happy :happy

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=81817
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Jerilynn » Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:26 pm

Firewood42 wrote:Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.


What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?
Cordially, Jeri . . . 100% all natural asset allocation. (no supernatural methods used)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Ed 2 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:10 pm

Jerilynn wrote:
Firewood42 wrote:Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.


What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?


yes!!! That is the same what I am thinking reading posts like this every time during regular market correction. I guess this world will never change and this is a GOOD thing for us value long term investors.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby SP-diceman » Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:23 pm

Jerilynn wrote:
Firewood42 wrote:Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.


What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?


This guy: :)

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000124309
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby nisiprius » Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:43 pm

THIS is the guy who gets it right. Watch THIS one. (Thanks, Boglenaut!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hHJSTu5Jnk
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby VennData » Sun Oct 28, 2012 10:39 am

Europe, China slowdown, slowing earnings growth, growing debt & deficits, Barron's says money managers are all becoming bearish, an election of immeasurably-epic proportions and the biggest storm in a hundred years (this is what they are yammering on about now.)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Firewood42 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:06 pm

Ed 2 wrote:
Jerilynn wrote:
Firewood42 wrote:Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.


What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?


yes!!! That is the same what I am thinking reading posts like this every time during regular market correction. I guess this world will never change and this is a GOOD thing for us value long term investors.


I was a long term investor for 40 years. At age 70 I no longer am a long term investor. I got out to use the money for needed income, it was only 10 percent of my portfolio anyway. I was just commenting that even though I was planning to get out, maybe I actually got out at the right time. :happy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Ed 2 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 4:59 pm

Firewood42 wrote:
Ed 2 wrote:
Jerilynn wrote:
Firewood42 wrote:Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.


What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?


yes!!! That is the same what I am thinking reading posts like this every time during regular market correction. I guess this world will never change and this is a GOOD thing for us value long term investors.


I was a long term investor for 40 years. At age 70 I no longer am a long term investor. I got out to use the money for needed income, it was only 10 percent of my portfolio anyway. I was just commenting that even though I was planning to get out, maybe I actually got out at the right time. :happy

Good for you! But it is funny how you starting to correct you previous statement,now we find that you had only 10% of your portfolio in stocks.I personally not criticizing your move to "cash", but statement like yours are contributing to overall panic, sort off like a snow con.. again is a good thing for us value long term investors, we going to come and buy one of your stocks after beaten Like a Red-Headed Step-Children . :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby umfundi » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:53 pm

As a true Boglehead, I do not keep track of this stuff, but does anyone have a list a list of the most notable market moves since, say, 1960 (the last 50 years)?

From one-day disasters, to multi-year bear or bull markets, what does the list look like?

I would like to have this for a presentation to the Detroit Bogleheads chapter in a few weeks.

Keith
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Taylor Larimore » Mon Oct 29, 2012 7:40 am

Keith:

Does anyone have a list a list of the most notable market moves since, say, 1960 (the last 50 years)?


The 10 Worst days for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1960 were:

-22.6% 10-19-87
-8.0% 10-26-87
-7.9% 10-15-08
-7.7% 12-1-08
-7.3% 10-9-08
-7.2% 10-27-97
-7.1% 9-17-01
-7.0% 9-29-08
-6.9% 10-13-89
-6.9% 1-8-88



The 10 Best days for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1960 were:

11.1% 10-13-08
10.9% 10-28-08
10.2% 10-21-87
6.8% 3-23-09
6.7% 11-13-08
6.5% 11-21-08
6.4% 7-24-02
5.9% 10-20-87
5.8% 3-10-09
5.4% 7-29-02

Source: 2012 Stock Trader's Almanac

Best wishes.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Firewood42 » Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:46 am

Ed 2 wrote:
Firewood42 wrote:
Ed 2 wrote:
Jerilynn wrote:
Firewood42 wrote:Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.


What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?


yes!!! That is the same what I am thinking reading posts like this every time during regular market correction. I guess this world will never change and this is a GOOD thing for us value long term investors.


I was a long term investor for 40 years. At age 70 I no longer am a long term investor. I got out to use the money for needed income, it was only 10 percent of my portfolio anyway. I was just commenting that even though I was planning to get out, maybe I actually got out at the right time. :happy

Good for you! But it is funny how you starting to correct you previous statement,now we find that you had only 10% of your portfolio in stocks.I personally not criticizing your move to "cash", but statement like yours are contributing to overall panic, sort off like a snow con.. again is a good thing for us value long term investors, we going to come and buy one of your stocks after beaten Like a Red-Headed Step-Children . :sharebeer


Sorry, I didn't mean to ruffle any feathers. If I was a young man I would look at any downturns as an opportunity and invest heavily in stock mutual funds.

Interesting, the biggest drop in that list in 1987 I had just a couple of weeks before invested 25 percent of money I had saved in high interest cd's and invested in stock mutual funds. A couple of days after the crash, I invested the rest. I saw it as an opportunity but I was only 45 years old. I was working hard and saving money. now I am retired and living off my retirement savings and I plan on taking that stock market money and spending it while I am still healthy. Good luck to all.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby umfundi » Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:47 pm

It's going to be a treat today to hear the pundits explain the market's rise in advance of the election results. I heard this one:

"Knowing the election result will reduce uncertainty, and the market is up in anticipation."

Keith
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Re: Where is Lbill?

Postby VictoriaF » Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:57 pm

bobcat2 wrote:Does anyone know what has happened to Lbill, who is the OP of this thread? He was posting very frequently in April and early May, but nary a single post since then.

A few days ago I sent him a PM, but it is still sitting in my Outbox.

BobK


I'd like to repeat BobK's question; it still has not been answered.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Xanadu » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:52 am

umfundi wrote:
Xanadu wrote:
umfundi wrote:By the way,

Stocks will fall on Monday or Tuesday.

Analysts will instantly explain (after the fact) that investors feel Friday's optimism about a Euro solution was overstated, and that they are being cautious heading into the mid-week 4th of July market closing.

You read it here first.

Keith

I will not be buying your newsletter, good sir. :wink:

There is a better newsletter? :confused
I suppose I'll have to stick with my day job.

Or, let me say, that on Wednesday November 7, the market will be up or down because projections are the lame duck congress will / will not do something about renewinng the Bush tax cuts or sequestration, automatic cuts to curtail spending.

(This is kind of easy. Do I really need that day job?)

Keith



Oh my god. How did you know that?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby umfundi » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:38 pm

:D :D Keith
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:40 pm

Whoops! DOW off 350 today.

Now I'm free, free fallin'
Yeah I'm free, free fallin'

Yeah I'm free, free fallin' oh
Free falling
Yeah I'm free, oh free fallin
'
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby M1garand30064 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:06 pm

Browser wrote:Whoops! DOW off 350 today.

Now I'm free, free fallin'
Yeah I'm free, free fallin'

Yeah I'm free, free fallin' oh
Free falling
Yeah I'm free, oh free fallin
'


Man that sucks. Let me check something real quick....YEP! My Vanguard account is still scheduled to auto buy this Friday.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby kenyan » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:14 pm

Ooh, maybe if it continues I'll have a rebalancing opportunity. Good thing I have international stocks (down 1% less than Dow), REITs (down 2% less than Dow), and bonds (Up).
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Angst » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:23 pm

I'm more interested where it ends up at the closing bell... A year from now!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Rick Ferri » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:42 pm

My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. Investors who were spring-loaded to sell based on the election outcome will sell quickly and those who are selling to take capital gains at a lower tax rate will do so fairly soon. That clears the way for stocks to finish the year higher.

Just my guess. :?:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby BBL » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:59 pm

That clears the way for stocks to finish the year higher.

Just my guess.



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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Bongleur » Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:39 pm

I was hoping for some change, but today is the same as yesterday... next year gonna be the same as this year...
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby livesoft » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:34 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. ....
Rick Ferri

It would be pretty bad if the downtrend was permanent, wouldn't it? :P That would basically mean the end of your livelihood.
It's all about short-term opportunistic rebalancing due to a short-term change in one's asset allocation, uh, I mean opportunistic rebalancing, uh I mean rebalancing, uh I mean market timing.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Rick Ferri » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:48 pm

livesoft wrote:
Rick Ferri wrote:My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. ....
Rick Ferri

It would be pretty bad if the downtrend was permanent, wouldn't it? :P That would basically mean the end of your livelihood.


Nope. When I started my company on July 1, 1999 the S&P 500 was at 1391. Today it's at 1394 and I'm still in business. That must say something!

:)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Spades » Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:51 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:
livesoft wrote:
Rick Ferri wrote:My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. ....
Rick Ferri

It would be pretty bad if the downtrend was permanent, wouldn't it? :P That would basically mean the end of your livelihood.


Nope. When I started my company on July 1, 1999 the S&P 500 was at 1391. Today it's at 1394 and I'm still in business. That must say something!

:)

Rick Ferri


That is saying something, and I wish you and your business the best! That S&P 500 result may seem flat like west Texas, but I bet the time between 1999 and now is more like the rolling hills of central Texas.

:sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby umfundi » Wed Nov 07, 2012 7:05 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:
livesoft wrote:
Rick Ferri wrote:My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. ....
Rick Ferri

It would be pretty bad if the downtrend was permanent, wouldn't it? :P That would basically mean the end of your livelihood.


Nope. When I started my company on July 1, 1999 the S&P 500 was at 1391. Today it's at 1394 and I'm still in business. That must say something!

:)

Rick Ferri


1. We are today in a downtrend?

2. Rick, I bet if anyone had started with your recommendations on day 1, invested $1,000 monthly in a 60/40% stocks/bonds allocation and rebalanced their account by targeting the monthly investment (or rebalanced annually, if necessary), they would have done pretty well. They would have invested $160,000 and their account would be ??

While the index has gone nowhere ...

(My calculations show the return was above 7% before fees and transaction costs. In my opinion, so much for the lost decade!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Grt2bOutdoors » Wed Nov 07, 2012 7:43 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:
livesoft wrote:
Rick Ferri wrote:My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. ....
Rick Ferri

It would be pretty bad if the downtrend was permanent, wouldn't it? :P That would basically mean the end of your livelihood.


Nope. When I started my company on July 1, 1999 the S&P 500 was at 1391. Today it's at 1394 and I'm still in business. That must say something!

:)

Rick Ferri


That's because for most people "hope springs eternal". It pays to be optimistic.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Grt2bOutdoors » Wed Nov 07, 2012 7:45 pm

Bongleur wrote:I was hoping for some change, but today is the same as yesterday... next year gonna be the same as this year...


You got your change. Yesteday you had a buck in VTI, today you got 97.8 cents. That amounts to a simple combination of three quarters, two dimes and two pennies, give or take a few tenths. Now you have some jingle in your pocket. :twisted:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby ofcmetz » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:34 pm

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Bongleur wrote:I was hoping for some change, but today is the same as yesterday... next year gonna be the same as this year...


You got your change. Yesteday you had a buck in VTI, today you got 97.8 cents. That amounts to a simple combination of three quarters, two dimes and two pennies, give or take a few tenths. Now you have some jingle in your pocket. :twisted:



Only got change if you sold. Otherwise you still have the same amount of shares.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:31 pm

The DOW has now fallen about 700 points since November 6. Does this qualify as "freefall?"
If we have data, let’s look at data. If all we have are opinions, let’s go with mine. – Jim Barksdale
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby STC » Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:36 pm

Browser wrote:The DOW has now fallen about 700 points since November 6. Does this qualify as "freefall?"



Freefall? LOL This doesnt even count as a correction. Its ~6.5% drop. Need a 10% drop before its a correction. And a correction comes before freefall.

Perhaps you need a more conservative AA?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Browser » Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:41 pm

STC wrote:
Browser wrote:The DOW has now fallen about 700 points since November 6. Does this qualify as "freefall?"



Freefall? LOL This doesnt even count as a correction. Its ~6.5% drop. Need a 10% drop before its a correction. And a correction comes before freefall.

Perhaps you need a more conservative AA?

I stand corrected and hope I don't fall.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby scone » Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:43 pm

Browser wrote:The DOW has now fallen about 700 points since November 6. Does this qualify as "freefall?"

This is a freefall: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1929_ ... _graph.svg

That said, VIX and TLT are up. The "fear factor" is up. In the last few days, if you overlay VTI and TLT, they almost mirror each other.
"Sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you." -- Preacher Roe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby WolfpackFan » Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:46 pm

wooo weee I'm only 30, I don't give a BLEEP
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby atfish » Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:44 pm

remember the market climbs a wall of worry.........
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby phish_indexer » Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:48 pm

^^At 26, I enjoy the drops, too. Probably going to make my final HSA contribution tomorrow.

Also, congrats on a great user name!

Signed,
NC State alum
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby trico » Wed Nov 14, 2012 7:03 pm

I have seen in my lifetime a lot of 30 year old's that woooo wee don't give a bleep in the homeless shelters in their 50's. I almost ended up there myself. So now at 60 I wooo wee do give a bleep.
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