U.S. stocks in freefall

[livesoft]

Regardless, most folks did not buy into the total stock market in huge amounts on August 8th.
The bulk of their equity $$$ was there in July, 2011 as well.
So we're making out OK at this point, but the 26% gain number is just one of those volatility oddities.
It does help validate the principle of throwing additional funds into stocks on RBDs, obviously...

August 8, 2011 I remember it well:
viewtopic.php?p=1141682#p1141682

[Jay69]

I must have the wrong radio station on in the my car this AM, they must have said "fiscal cliff" about 8 times in a 1/2 hour!

[hoppy08520]

Nice to see the S&P 500 top 1,400 again. I remember getting excited when it cracked 1,500 back in....2000!!

[ruralavalon]

This thread should be renamed, "US stocks on one heck of a rollercoaster"

You'll be able to tell your grandchildren, "I was an investor in 2012, and it was volatile both ways".

Keith

I hope I have more meaningful and entertaining stories to tell them. This ride is making me nauseated;>)

Still, you better tell them about it...

Otherwise, when it happens to them, they'll be thinking "This time it's different!" when really.... it's never different.

Lets all Remember. Lots of people pay good money to ride rollercoasters, just for the joy of it .

[Bongleur]

Shows you that Sequence of Returns can be really important.

[ofcmetz]

Hello Everybody,

Figured it was time to activate this old friend of a thread.

[baw703916]

Hello Everybody,

Figured it was time to activate this old friend of a thread.

LOL!

[DoWahDaddy]

was wondering if i'd see this. As if 1% actually qualified as volatility. we are all spoiled. Short-term anyway.

[zaboomafoozarg]

was wondering if i'd see this. As if 1% actually qualified as volatility. we are all spoiled. Short-term anyway.

And long-term we are all dead!

[VictoriaF]

Hello Everybody,

Figured it was time to activate this old friend of a thread.

LOL!

It's too much fun; it must be against the IRS rules for non-profits.

Victoria

[Browser]

Maybe the rats haven't left the ship yet, but they're starting to line up.

[bobcat2]

Does anyone know what has happened to Lbill, who is the OP of this thread? He was posting very frequently in April and early May, but nary a single post since then.

A few days ago I sent him a PM, but it is still sitting in my Outbox.

BobK

[Firewood42]

Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year. First time I have been totally out of the market since I started investing in stock mutual funds 40 years ago. At age 70 my wife and I need income. I have been looking at putting the money in VWINX or VWEAX or something similar from Fidelity.

[Ed 2]

Regardless, most folks did not buy into the total stock market in huge amounts on August 8th.
The bulk of their equity $$$ was there in July, 2011 as well.
So we're making out OK at this point, but the 26% gain number is just one of those volatility oddities.
It does help validate the principle of throwing additional funds into stocks on RBDs, obviously...

August 8, 2011 I remember it well:
viewtopic.php?p=1141682#p1141682

oh yes, I remember it all,thank God i don't react as many do.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=81817

[Jerilynn]

Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.

What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?

[Ed 2]

Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.

What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?

yes!!! That is the same what I am thinking reading posts like this every time during regular market correction. I guess this world will never change and this is a GOOD thing for us value long term investors.

[SP-diceman]

Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.

What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?

This guy:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000124309

[nisiprius]

THIS is the guy who gets it right. Watch THIS one. (Thanks, Boglenaut!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hHJSTu5Jnk

[VennData]

Europe, China slowdown, slowing earnings growth, growing debt & deficits, Barron's says money managers are all becoming bearish, an election of immeasurably-epic proportions and the biggest storm in a hundred years (this is what they are yammering on about now.)

[Firewood42]

Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.

What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?

yes!!! That is the same what I am thinking reading posts like this every time during regular market correction. I guess this world will never change and this is a GOOD thing for us value long term investors.

I was a long term investor for 40 years. At age 70 I no longer am a long term investor. I got out to use the money for needed income, it was only 10 percent of my portfolio anyway. I was just commenting that even though I was planning to get out, maybe I actually got out at the right time.

[Ed 2]

Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.

What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?

yes!!! That is the same what I am thinking reading posts like this every time during regular market correction. I guess this world will never change and this is a GOOD thing for us value long term investors.

I was a long term investor for 40 years. At age 70 I no longer am a long term investor. I got out to use the money for needed income, it was only 10 percent of my portfolio anyway. I was just commenting that even though I was planning to get out, maybe I actually got out at the right time.

Good for you! But it is funny how you starting to correct you previous statement,now we find that you had only 10% of your portfolio in stocks.I personally not criticizing your move to "cash", but statement like yours are contributing to overall panic, sort off like a snow con.. again is a good thing for us value long term investors, we going to come and buy one of your stocks after beaten Like a Red-Headed Step-Children .

[umfundi]

As a true Boglehead, I do not keep track of this stuff, but does anyone have a list a list of the most notable market moves since, say, 1960 (the last 50 years)?

From one-day disasters, to multi-year bear or bull markets, what does the list look like?

I would like to have this for a presentation to the Detroit Bogleheads chapter in a few weeks.

Keith

[Taylor Larimore]

Keith:

Does anyone have a list a list of the most notable market moves since, say, 1960 (the last 50 years)?

The 10 Worst days for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1960 were:

-22.6% 10-19-87
-8.0% 10-26-87
-7.9% 10-15-08
-7.7% 12-1-08
-7.3% 10-9-08
-7.2% 10-27-97
-7.1% 9-17-01
-7.0% 9-29-08
-6.9% 10-13-89
-6.9% 1-8-88



The 10 Best days for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1960 were:

11.1% 10-13-08
10.9% 10-28-08
10.2% 10-21-87
6.8% 3-23-09
6.7% 11-13-08
6.5% 11-21-08
6.4% 7-24-02
5.9% 10-20-87
5.8% 3-10-09
5.4% 7-29-02

Source: 2012 Stock Trader's Almanac

Best wishes.
Taylor

[Firewood42]

Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.

What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?

yes!!! That is the same what I am thinking reading posts like this every time during regular market correction. I guess this world will never change and this is a GOOD thing for us value long term investors.

I was a long term investor for 40 years. At age 70 I no longer am a long term investor. I got out to use the money for needed income, it was only 10 percent of my portfolio anyway. I was just commenting that even though I was planning to get out, maybe I actually got out at the right time.

Good for you! But it is funny how you starting to correct you previous statement,now we find that you had only 10% of your portfolio in stocks.I personally not criticizing your move to "cash", but statement like yours are contributing to overall panic, sort off like a snow con.. again is a good thing for us value long term investors, we going to come and buy one of your stocks after beaten Like a Red-Headed Step-Children .

Sorry, I didn't mean to ruffle any feathers. If I was a young man I would look at any downturns as an opportunity and invest heavily in stock mutual funds.

Interesting, the biggest drop in that list in 1987 I had just a couple of weeks before invested 25 percent of money I had saved in high interest cd's and invested in stock mutual funds. A couple of days after the crash, I invested the rest. I saw it as an opportunity but I was only 45 years old. I was working hard and saving money. now I am retired and living off my retirement savings and I plan on taking that stock market money and spending it while I am still healthy. Good luck to all.

[umfundi]

It's going to be a treat today to hear the pundits explain the market's rise in advance of the election results. I heard this one:

"Knowing the election result will reduce uncertainty, and the market is up in anticipation."

Keith

[VictoriaF]

Does anyone know what has happened to Lbill, who is the OP of this thread? He was posting very frequently in April and early May, but nary a single post since then.

A few days ago I sent him a PM, but it is still sitting in my Outbox.

BobK

I'd like to repeat BobK's question; it still has not been answered.

Victoria

[Xanadu]

By the way,

Stocks will fall on Monday or Tuesday.

Analysts will instantly explain (after the fact) that investors feel Friday's optimism about a Euro solution was overstated, and that they are being cautious heading into the mid-week 4th of July market closing.

You read it here first.

Keith

I will not be buying your newsletter, good sir.

There is a better newsletter?
I suppose I'll have to stick with my day job.

Or, let me say, that on Wednesday November 7, the market will be up or down because projections are the lame duck congress will / will not do something about renewinng the Bush tax cuts or sequestration, automatic cuts to curtail spending.

(This is kind of easy. Do I really need that day job?)

Keith

Oh my god. How did you know that?

[umfundi]

Keith

[Browser]

Whoops! DOW off 350 today.

Now I'm free, free fallin'
Yeah I'm free, free fallin'

Yeah I'm free, free fallin' oh
Free falling
Yeah I'm free, oh free fallin'

[M1garand30064]

Whoops! DOW off 350 today.

Now I'm free, free fallin'
Yeah I'm free, free fallin'

Yeah I'm free, free fallin' oh
Free falling
Yeah I'm free, oh free fallin'

Man that sucks. Let me check something real quick....YEP! My Vanguard account is still scheduled to auto buy this Friday.

[kenyan]

Ooh, maybe if it continues I'll have a rebalancing opportunity. Good thing I have international stocks (down 1% less than Dow), REITs (down 2% less than Dow), and bonds (Up).

[Angst]

I'm more interested where it ends up at the closing bell... A year from now!

[Rick Ferri]

My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. Investors who were spring-loaded to sell based on the election outcome will sell quickly and those who are selling to take capital gains at a lower tax rate will do so fairly soon. That clears the way for stocks to finish the year higher.

Just my guess.

Rick Ferri

[BBL]

That clears the way for stocks to finish the year higher.

Just my guess.

I’d rather be optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right.

[Bongleur]

I was hoping for some change, but today is the same as yesterday... next year gonna be the same as this year...

[livesoft]

My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. ....
Rick Ferri

It would be pretty bad if the downtrend was permanent, wouldn't it? That would basically mean the end of your livelihood.

[Rick Ferri]

My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. ....
Rick Ferri

It would be pretty bad if the downtrend was permanent, wouldn't it? That would basically mean the end of your livelihood.

Nope. When I started my company on July 1, 1999 the S&P 500 was at 1391. Today it's at 1394 and I'm still in business. That must say something!



Rick Ferri

[Spades]

My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. ....
Rick Ferri

It would be pretty bad if the downtrend was permanent, wouldn't it? That would basically mean the end of your livelihood.

Nope. When I started my company on July 1, 1999 the S&P 500 was at 1391. Today it's at 1394 and I'm still in business. That must say something!



Rick Ferri

That is saying something, and I wish you and your business the best! That S&P 500 result may seem flat like west Texas, but I bet the time between 1999 and now is more like the rolling hills of central Texas.

[umfundi]

My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. ....
Rick Ferri

It would be pretty bad if the downtrend was permanent, wouldn't it? That would basically mean the end of your livelihood.

Nope. When I started my company on July 1, 1999 the S&P 500 was at 1391. Today it's at 1394 and I'm still in business. That must say something!



Rick Ferri

1. We are today in a downtrend?

2. Rick, I bet if anyone had started with your recommendations on day 1, invested $1,000 monthly in a 60/40% stocks/bonds allocation and rebalanced their account by targeting the monthly investment (or rebalanced annually, if necessary), they would have done pretty well. They would have invested $160,000 and their account would be ??

While the index has gone nowhere ...

(My calculations show the return was above 7% before fees and transaction costs. In my opinion, so much for the lost decade!

Keith

[Grt2bOutdoors]

My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. ....
Rick Ferri

It would be pretty bad if the downtrend was permanent, wouldn't it? That would basically mean the end of your livelihood.

Nope. When I started my company on July 1, 1999 the S&P 500 was at 1391. Today it's at 1394 and I'm still in business. That must say something!



Rick Ferri

That's because for most people "hope springs eternal". It pays to be optimistic.

[Grt2bOutdoors]

I was hoping for some change, but today is the same as yesterday... next year gonna be the same as this year...

You got your change. Yesteday you had a buck in VTI, today you got 97.8 cents. That amounts to a simple combination of three quarters, two dimes and two pennies, give or take a few tenths. Now you have some jingle in your pocket.

[ofcmetz]

I was hoping for some change, but today is the same as yesterday... next year gonna be the same as this year...

You got your change. Yesteday you had a buck in VTI, today you got 97.8 cents. That amounts to a simple combination of three quarters, two dimes and two pennies, give or take a few tenths. Now you have some jingle in your pocket.

Only got change if you sold. Otherwise you still have the same amount of shares.

[Browser]

The DOW has now fallen about 700 points since November 6. Does this qualify as "freefall?"

[STC]

The DOW has now fallen about 700 points since November 6. Does this qualify as "freefall?"

Freefall? LOL This doesnt even count as a correction. Its ~6.5% drop. Need a 10% drop before its a correction. And a correction comes before freefall.

Perhaps you need a more conservative AA?

[Browser]

The DOW has now fallen about 700 points since November 6. Does this qualify as "freefall?"

Freefall? LOL This doesnt even count as a correction. Its ~6.5% drop. Need a 10% drop before its a correction. And a correction comes before freefall.

Perhaps you need a more conservative AA?

I stand corrected and hope I don't fall.

[scone]

The DOW has now fallen about 700 points since November 6. Does this qualify as "freefall?"

This is a freefall: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1929_ ... _graph.svg

That said, VIX and TLT are up. The "fear factor" is up. In the last few days, if you overlay VTI and TLT, they almost mirror each other.

[WolfpackFan]

wooo weee I'm only 30, I don't give a BLEEP

[atfish]

remember the market climbs a wall of worry.........

[phish_indexer]

^^At 26, I enjoy the drops, too. Probably going to make my final HSA contribution tomorrow.

Also, congrats on a great user name!

Signed,
NC State alum

[trico]

I have seen in my lifetime a lot of 30 year old's that woooo wee don't give a bleep in the homeless shelters in their 50's. I almost ended up there myself. So now at 60 I wooo wee do give a bleep.