U.S. stocks in freefall

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby floydtime » Tue Apr 10, 2012 8:44 pm

Beagler wrote:
Trader007 wrote:Stock indices should continue down for several months now. Looks like end of February-end of March. Will be more specific later.


Here's what happened to the S&P 500 from the date of your prediction to the end of March 2012:
Image


That's gotta be embarrassing. Can't wait for the "more specific later" part. :oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Lbill » Tue Apr 10, 2012 10:00 pm

I may be little right now, but I'm still growing... :) :) :)

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby anakinskywalker » Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:03 am

nisiprius wrote:Image
Furthermore, from August 2011 through today, the plot of the Dow obviously resembles the clarinet trill and upward glissando that open Gershwin's Rhapsody in Blue. I hardly need tell you what comes next.

Furthermore, the Dow closed at 12,715.93. Add the digits and you get 28. The divisors of 28 are 1, 2, 4, 7, and 14. Add those divisors and you get... 28! How often does that happen?


Couldn't agree more. If you look carefully, you may also notice the dreaded "Cracked-Open Head with Lopsided Shoulders" formation which invariably indicates imminent market fluctuation.

Any trader worth his salt should also not miss the Empire State Building formation sitting right in the middle. It's arrival was foretold at the very dawn of Capitalism by no less than Eve Smith herself who declared that the exchange would eventually become self-aware and start communicating with us. Clearly the market is telling us that he/she realizes that he/she is in New York.

Bonus points for those who can also see the famous Sign of the Wiggle. It's sitting there plain as day just waiting to discovered and used in trading strategies by those who are sufficiently perspicacious.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby umfundi » Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:25 am

dave66 wrote:I would be interested to know how many people who believe a few days of market activity, indicate the overall trend of the market... also believe a few hot summer days indicate global warming is guaranteed to doom us all.
Why not?

My aunt (age 95) believes that opening an umbrella indoors portends bad news. As does spilling salt, or placing a pair of shoes on the bed. Given her age, it is clear she has been very careful about such things.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby GregLee » Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:03 am

nisiprius wrote:Furthermore, from August 2011 through today, the plot of the Dow obviously resembles the clarinet trill and upward glissando that open Gershwin's Rhapsody in Blue. I hardly need tell you what comes next.

A measure of stability.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby nisiprius » Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:59 am

umfundi wrote:My aunt (age 95) believes that opening an umbrella indoors portends bad news. As does spilling salt, or placing a pair of shoes on the bed.
Shoes on the bed? Oh, please, tell us more. I didn't know that.

I do remember that when we got married, one of the things we really needed was a good set of kitchen knives, but were told that we couldn't ask for them because it's bad luck ever to give a knife as a gift.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby JW Nearly Retired » Wed Apr 11, 2012 8:55 am

umfundi wrote: My aunt (age 95) believes that opening an umbrella indoors portends bad news. As does spilling salt, or placing a pair of shoes on the bed.


nisiprius wrote: Shoes on the bed? Oh, please, tell us more. I didn't know that.

Uh-oh! Never heard of that either. I habitually put my shoes on the bed getting dressed every morning. Sorry for all the market trouble I must be causing but I doubt I have the will power to change such an ingrained habit. Could you ask your aunt if throwing them over my shoulder onto the bed would work like it does with salt?

On a positive note, I put in a grandkid's 529 contribution this morning because yesterday was a RBD. That usually makes the market bounce right back since it takes at least 2 business days to execute.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Jay69 » Wed Apr 11, 2012 9:48 am

I'm glad this thread got resurrected rather than a new one starting.

Anybody want to guess at where we end up today?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby floydtime » Wed Apr 11, 2012 10:43 am

Jay69 wrote:Anybody want to guess at where we end up today?

Wednesday. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby zaboomafoozarg » Wed Apr 11, 2012 11:14 am

Ah, this thread is an old friend.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Valuethinker » Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:04 pm

nisiprius wrote:
umfundi wrote:My aunt (age 95) believes that opening an umbrella indoors portends bad news. As does spilling salt, or placing a pair of shoes on the bed.
Shoes on the bed? Oh, please, tell us more. I didn't know that.

I do remember that when we got married, one of the things we really needed was a good set of kitchen knives, but were told that we couldn't ask for them because it's bad luck ever to give a knife as a gift.


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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby ofcmetz » Mon Apr 23, 2012 10:18 am

Is our friend from last fall, Mr. Volatility back? I keep waiting for Livesoft to have one of his RBD's.

I really just wanted to revive this thread. ;)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Grt2bOutdoors » Mon Apr 23, 2012 10:29 am

ofcmetz wrote:Is our friend from last fall, Mr. Volatility back? I keep waiting for Livesoft to have one of his RBD's.

I really just wanted to revive this thread. ;)


It's waiting for May, just another 8 days to go. :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Jay69 » Mon Apr 23, 2012 10:31 am

Not a great start to the week!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby GregLee » Mon Apr 23, 2012 11:48 am

These selloffs are more fun when I have some cash to invest, but I haven't recovered yet from federal tax time.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Lbill » Mon Apr 23, 2012 11:52 am

Boy, it doesn't take much to stir up this thread these days. Must be a whole bunch of nervousness out there about whether the equity risk premium will be coming to the party. What's a party without the ERP? :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby zotty » Mon Apr 23, 2012 12:18 pm

LOL. sigh. it's just a PBD (Pretty bad day)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby xerty24 » Sat Jun 02, 2012 12:00 am

I guess today only counts as another Pretty Bad Day, but they've been stringing them together a lot lately.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby oragne lovre » Sat Jun 02, 2012 12:45 am

Do I hear the sound of cannon or just have auditory hallucination?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Tuxx » Sat Jun 02, 2012 1:23 am

floydtime wrote:
Jay69 wrote:Anybody want to guess at where we end up today?

Wednesday. :beer


Wednesday in January 1999 is where we are back too. :shock:

Adjusted for inflation.....don't even ask. :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby xerty24 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 2:24 pm

Bump.

US stocks -2%
foreign stocks -4%
commodities -2.5%

We've still got another 1.5 hours to go.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Tom_T » Thu Jun 21, 2012 3:30 pm

I would hardly call today's action a freefall. Call me if the Dow drops 1000 points.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby The Wizard » Thu Jun 21, 2012 3:33 pm

Are we even into RBD territory yet?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby hsv_climber » Thu Jun 21, 2012 3:39 pm

The Wizard wrote:Are we even into RBD territory yet?


We are (VWO, VXF, VEU).
But all of them are still positive vs. 5 days ago. I'll wait.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby HomerJ » Thu Jun 21, 2012 3:52 pm

hsv_climber wrote:
The Wizard wrote:Are we even into RBD territory yet?


We are (VWO, VXF, VEU).
But all of them are still positive vs. 5 days ago. I'll wait.


Exactly... if a market goes up 3 days in a row, and then drops 1 day (but still is net positive over those 4 days), can you really proclaim "Dooooooooom!"?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby livesoft » Thu Jun 21, 2012 4:10 pm

The Wizard wrote:Are we even into RBD territory yet?

Today was an RBD for VWO unless perhaps it went ex-Dividend like EEM did today. Same for DGS, but surprisingly not for EWX.
It's all about short-term opportunistic rebalancing due to a short-term change in one's asset allocation, uh, I mean opportunistic rebalancing, uh I mean rebalancing, uh I mean market timing.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Random Musings » Thu Jun 21, 2012 4:12 pm

Someday, this thread will be right. Perhaps Goldman has lit the bears fire........

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Firewood42 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 4:34 pm

Looks like another good day for GNMA funds. :happy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby GregLee » Thu Jun 21, 2012 5:07 pm

xerty24 wrote:foreign stocks -4%

Where do you get that figure? I'm trying to decide whether to buy more of TRP New Asia (China/India/Korea/...) or Latin America funds, while they're priced low. I need to estimate a day in advance when to buy, since they're mutual funds. (I know about the major country indexes, but it would be useful also to have a current estimate for "foreign stocks".)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby nisiprius » Thu Jun 21, 2012 5:16 pm

Random Musings wrote:Someday, this thread will be right. Perhaps Goldman has lit the bears fire........
"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."--the Red Queen, in Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There.

$10,000 invested in Vanguard 500 Index a year ago is worth $10,680.68 yesterday. With today's 2.2 drop, probably about $10,400 today.

For the last year, it has taken the stock market all the "free falling" it can do to stay in the same place.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby umfundi » Thu Jun 21, 2012 5:28 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Random Musings wrote:Someday, this thread will be right. Perhaps Goldman has lit the bears fire........
"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."--the Red Queen, in Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There.

$10,000 invested in Vanguard 500 Index a year ago is worth $10,680.68 yesterday. With today's 2.2 drop, probably about $10,400 today.

For the last year, it has taken the stock market all the "free falling" it can do to stay in the same place.

Yes, but what will the market do tomorrow?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby xerty24 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 5:41 pm

GregLee wrote:
xerty24 wrote:foreign stocks -4%

Where do you get that figure? I'm trying to decide whether to buy more of TRP New Asia (China/India/Korea/...) or Latin America funds, while they're priced low. I need to estimate a day in advance when to buy, since they're mutual funds. (I know about the major country indexes, but it would be useful also to have a current estimate for "foreign stocks".)

There are plenty of ETFs, I just picked a rough average. Here are a number to get you started:

VGK (EU dev)
VPL (Asia dev)
EEM (Emerging)
FXI (China)
EPI (India)
RSX (Russia)
EWZ (Brazil)
EWY (Korea)
EWW (Mexico)

iShares as ones for just about any country you can imagine.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Bongleur » Thu Jun 21, 2012 6:30 pm

Can we have a thread titled "Official Really Bad Day Alert?"
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby nisiprius » Thu Jun 21, 2012 6:43 pm

umfundi wrote:
nisiprius wrote:
Random Musings wrote:Someday, this thread will be right. Perhaps Goldman has lit the bears fire........
"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."--the Red Queen, in Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There.

$10,000 invested in Vanguard 500 Index a year ago is worth $10,680.68 yesterday. With today's 2.2 drop, probably about $10,400 today.

For the last year, it has taken the stock market all the "free falling" it can do to stay in the same place.

Yes, but what will the market do tomorrow?

Keith
It will fluctuate.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby umfundi » Thu Jun 21, 2012 8:47 pm

It will fluctuate.

Yes, but how?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby gotherelate » Thu Jun 21, 2012 9:52 pm

umfundi wrote:
It will fluctuate.

Yes, but how?

Unpredictably.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Bongleur » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:28 pm

Is that a firm prediction?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby phish_indexer » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:40 pm

livesoft wrote:
The Wizard wrote:Are we even into RBD territory yet?

Today was an RBD for VWO unless perhaps it went ex-Dividend like EEM did today. Same for DGS, but surprisingly not for EWX.


I don't think VWO was one of Vanguard's ETFs throwing off a dividend this quarter. That said, I bought VWO in my Roth this morning... around 10 am while it was down around a point and not even close to RBD territory. The early bird does not always catch the worm.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Tuxx » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:59 pm

The S&P 500 index was over 230 points higher - over a decade ago.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby xerty24 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:05 pm

Bongleur wrote:Can we have a thread titled "Official Really Bad Day Alert?"

I think you have to subscribe to livesoft's newsletter for real time alerts :). Otherwise, he'll tell you a week later if/when the market has recovered thereby validating the premise... it's hard to tell the True RBDs from the fake ones, after all.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby lazyfabs » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:08 pm

umfundi wrote:
It will fluctuate.

Yes, but how?


up or down, either way who cares. tomorrow is friday and the weekend will be upon us.

salud :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Tuxx » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:27 am

Looking at the action in Asian and Europe - figured I may as well bump this thread now.

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby FinanceFun » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:32 am

Umm... VWO is down 38 BASIS POINTS, over the last 5-days. I am not scared. 8-)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby Tom_T » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:14 am

Tuxx wrote:Looking at the action in Asian and Europe - figured I may as well bump this thread now.

No, you're thinking of the "International stocks in freefall" thread. :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby neurosphere » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:39 am

Well, I know what the SP500 will do, because Goldman just told me.

According to a CNN article it will "drop to 1,285, roughly 5% below its current levels".

And Goldman added "the S&P could pop or at least stay flat if the U.S. or Chinese economies start revving up or if European policy makers talk a big game about propping up the market."

Therefore, I am taking action today in my portfolio to prepare for the predicted drop, pop, or flattening of the SP500. 8-)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby minesweep » Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:01 am

Tuxx wrote:The S&P 500 index was over 230 points higher - over a decade ago.

The S&P 500 index was 900 points lower 2 decades ago.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index History

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby nisiprius » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:23 pm

nisiprius wrote:
umfundi wrote:
nisiprius wrote:
Random Musings wrote:Someday, this thread will be right. Perhaps Goldman has lit the bears fire........
"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."--the Red Queen, in Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There.

$10,000 invested in Vanguard 500 Index a year ago is worth $10,680.68 yesterday. With today's 2.2 drop, probably about $10,400 today.

For the last year, it has taken the stock market all the "free falling" it can do to stay in the same place.

Yes, but what will the market do tomorrow?

Keith
It will fluctuate.
I was a smartypants. I was wrong. :oops: It didn't fluctuate. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby HomerJ » Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:47 am

Tuxx wrote:The S&P 500 index was over 230 points higher - over a decade ago.


(1) You're not including dividends
(2) I didn't save all my money in a jar from 1990-2000, then put all my money in the S&P 500 in 2000, and then walk away. The stock market has made me a ton of money over this "lost decade" and the decade before.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby livesoft » Fri Jun 29, 2012 10:27 am

livesoft wrote:
The Wizard wrote:Are we even into RBD territory yet?

Today was an RBD for VWO unless perhaps it went ex-Dividend like EEM did today. Same for DGS, but surprisingly not for EWX.

Is anybody else enjoying the market run-up today especially in VWO? :)
It's all about short-term opportunistic rebalancing due to a short-term change in one's asset allocation, uh, I mean opportunistic rebalancing, uh I mean rebalancing, uh I mean market timing.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Postby johnkidding » Fri Jun 29, 2012 10:35 am

livesoft wrote:
livesoft wrote:
The Wizard wrote:Are we even into RBD territory yet?

Today was an RBD for VWO unless perhaps it went ex-Dividend like EEM did today. Same for DGS, but surprisingly not for EWX.

Is anybody else enjoying the market run-up today especially in VWO? :)


No. Most of my purchases are done on the first of the month. Seeing Run Ups a couple days before I buy makes me :-(
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