U.S. stocks in free fall

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livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft »

REITs are UP today! Woo-hoo!
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VictoriaF
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF »

dgdevil wrote:Emerging markets? That's brave.
Is Russia still considered an Emerging market, or it has joined the Scourging market?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dgdevil »

VictoriaF wrote:
dgdevil wrote:Emerging markets? That's brave.
Is Russia still considered an Emerging market, or it has joined the Scourging market?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leeraar »

How soon we forget.

On March 9, 2009, the market saw its low. Vanguard Total Stock Market, VTSAX (adjusted for total return) closed at $14.56.

Yesterday, March 9, 2015, it closed at $52.50. That's a 261% increase, or a compounded return of 23.8% per year!

Even if the market drops 50% from here, you'll still have a compounded return of over 10% for the last six years.

Hold on, enjoy the ride!

L.

(edited for typo)
Last edited by Leeraar on Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Toons
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Toons »

LOL,,,I was thinking about this thread earlier,,,,,Doesn't surprise me at all it surfaced again,,,,,
The majority already know this but the record highs after a six year bull run WILL be surpassed again,,,,
The ensuing "noise" is entertaining though :sharebeer
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
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fetch5482
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fetch5482 »

dgdevil wrote:Emerging markets? That's brave.
Yeah, my AA called for it. Staying the course.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser »

Leeraar wrote:How soon we forget.

On March 9, 2009, the market saw its low. Vanguard Total Stock Market, VTSAX (adjusted for total return) closed at $14.56.

Yesterday, March 9, 2015, it closed at $52.50. That's a 261% increase, or a compounded return of 23.8% per year!

Even if the market drops 50% from here, you'll still have a compounded return of over 10% for the last six years.

Hold on, enjoy the ride!

L.

(edited for typo)
How much did your returns compound if you didn't happen to market time into stocks at the low on Mar 9, 2009, but instead were already in and rode it down? If you cherry picked Nov 15, 2007 as the starting point you got to enjoy a 54% drawdown and your total return to date would be 73% or a compound annual return of 7.8%. If the market drops 50% from here, you'll have a total return of 23% or a compound return of about 3% -- you coulda had a CD instead. Hold on -- but you might not enjoy the ride depending on where the ride starts.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leeraar »

If you cherry picked ...
The reason I posted is because this thread was revived on the sixth anniversary of the market low.

L.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser »

Another interesting coincidence: at the market high when the crash began, CAPE hit 27.32 in October,2007. It just surpassed that value in February, 2015 and stood at 27.92. My thoughts are that another 50% decline from here is more likely than a 261% gain. We might get this thread going strong again soon...
We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by antiqueman »

Where is LBill who started this thread? It doesn't seem he/she has posted since 2012. Does anyone know what happened?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jwillis77373 »

Red Apple Sale ! These occur Far too rarely.

When else are you guaranteed a massive return in the short term?

All I can think about is the investments I have will return to the mean.. but the investments I make now will be artificially "Inflated" when the market returns to the mean.. by all the dollars people threw away exiting the market. Shear lunacy.. doesnt take a high priced advisor to see an index will rebalance for you in the most efficient manner possible, the larger the index the better and the lower the fees. If its held in a tax advantaged account like a retirement fund.. wow.. nuclear
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Taylor Larimore
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A good thread on the importance of "Stay the Course."

Post by Taylor Larimore »

antiqueman wrote:Where is LBill who started this thread? It doesn't seem he/she has posted since 2012. Does anyone know what happened?
antqueman:
I honestly think that investing in stocks stinks. It's a legitimate viewpoint even though it's a voice in wilderness in the Cult of Equities. You can make pretty good returns without undergoing the torture of the stock market - I always have. -- LBill, August 2011
In August, 2011 the S&P 500 Index was 1250. Today it is 2044 (not including dividends).

This thread offers a good lesson why stocks can be an excellent long-term investment for those who have the knowledge and courage to "Stay the course."

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by z3r0c00l »

The Dow needs to get reduced 10x so people stop freaking out about the number change and focus back on the percentage. I bet that alone would get extra life into the bull market. There really is this feeling that anything over 10,000 is overvalued. I feel it when I look at IBOVESPA. I think this is called the Money Illusion.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by PeanutButterIsJelly »

I stopped by to say hello to this thread, as I knew it would be near the top. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ofcmetz »

It was just a one day freefall. It's been a many year free rise. Buying at the time this thread started made some people some money for sure.

I also wonder what happened to the OP. This thread does live on without him.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid »

Another Nedsaid contrary indicator is the "U.S. stocks in freefall" Bogleheads' thread. According to this indicator, it is time to buy stocks whenever this thread gets rolling again.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JonnyDVM »

ofcmetz wrote: I also wonder what happened to the OP. This thread does live on without him.
Guys was gloating in 2011 about how brilliant he was for eschewing equities. Looks pretty dumb now. Many of the early posts are from names I don't recognize at all. Must have moved on I guess. Does discussing indexing and staying the course get old after several years ?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leeraar »

In 2011 there was a market drop that had some declare the sky was falling. That variation is somewhat washed out in the calendar year over year comparisons that are often made.

L.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser »

But on the other hand, LBill might have been expressing the frustration of many investors in Aug, 2011. In September, 2011 the S&P 500 was where it was at the beginning of 2000 -- about 11 years of dead money punctuated by a couple of 50% drawdowns. All the gains in the market since the beginning of 2000 have occurred since then, a period of just 3 1/2 years. When planning to stay the course, it might serve to refresh one's memory of what the "course" can look like.
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GingerU
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GingerU »

I'm not trying to time the market but I bought some ETFs (ITOT through Fidelity) about a for several months now and i'm not seeing any progress. It seems that the market is unstable that I should wait before making any further investments. I don't think Thoughts? Are any of you holding off expecting further declines?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Manbaerpig »

the chances of another recession out there somewhere is always 100%

determining when that might happen to be [and when it will be reflected in equity pricing] are two additional problem areas
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sketchy9 »

Leeraar wrote:In 2011 there was a market drop that had some declare the sky was falling. That variation is somewhat washed out in the calendar year over year comparisons that are often made.

L.
The market drop in August 2011 coincided with the refusal to raise the debt ceiling and the possibility of US default, both of which led to the downgrading of US credit. It was by no means obvious at the time that things would work themselves out. Personally I was very happy at the time as it allowed me to realize some extreme capital losses that I am still utilizing today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ogd »

GingerU wrote:I'm not trying to time the market but I bought some ETFs (ITOT through Fidelity) about a for several months now and i'm not seeing any progress. It seems that the market is unstable that I should wait before making any further investments. I don't think Thoughts? Are any of you holding off expecting further declines?
Ask yourself if your question is the equivalent of "I want to pay more for my further investments". I think it is.

Imagine a situation in which you feel you have a green light to buy and everything, the economy etc, is rolling just fine. In this scenario, is the S&P likely to be lower or higher than now? Is it better to be invested or on the sidelines?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bustoff »

Too soon ?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by k66 »

GingerU wrote:I'm not trying to time the market but I bought some ETFs (ITOT through Fidelity) about a for several months now and i'm not seeing any progress. It seems that the market is unstable that I should wait before making any further investments. I don't think Thoughts? Are any of you holding off expecting further declines?
The market is always unstable, if you want to call it that. But bear in mind that this is near-term behaviour. Think long-term (years or even decades, not days, weeks, or months). The blue line almost always goes up!

Sometime in the next four weeks, I will be cashing out a company bonus and plunking it down 100% into my designated four funds completely irrespective of the noise going on at the time. However, I would be especially pleased if the "market" tanks a few more percentage points while I wait during this time... only so I can steal a few more units of those funds!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zaboomafoozarg »

US and international are still slightly positive for 2015.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HurdyGurdy »

Life is bare, gloom and misery everywhere
Stormy weather
Just can't get my poor self together,
I'm weary all the time
So weary all the time
When he went away the blues walked in and met me.
If he stays away old rockin' chair will get me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrqY-JfEzbE
(Dinah Washington's rendition)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by wingz »

the moment I see this thread bumped, i am forced to check how big is the drop :P
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by InvestorWD »

Can I buy some International index fund VTIAX today? I don't have any international fund so far... Anyone is buying anything today?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FullYellowJacket »

Right in time for 401(k) contribution day!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by singern »

FullYellowJacket wrote:Right in time for 401(k) contribution day!

+1. I was thinking that myself!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by veggivet »

Added to positions in VEA and VEU today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dbCooperAir »

I was waiting for this to popup today!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey »

Back the truck up - cat food is on sale! :greedy
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fetch5482
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fetch5482 »

oldzey wrote:Back the truck up - cat food is on sale! :greedy
Funny how S&P 500 at 2075 seems like on-sale now :-)
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Mel Lindauer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Mel Lindauer »

Here's a recent timely Forbes column of mine that may well be applicable here.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/theboglehea ... rebalance/
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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k66
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by k66 »

OK -- time to sell. This thread forms the backbone of my market-timing process...
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peppers
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by peppers »

And on a side note my grecian daisies and hyacinthus are finally blooming.
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Taylor Larimore
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Mel's Forbes column explains "Rebalancing."

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Mel Lindauer wrote:Here's a recent timely Forbes column of mine that may well be applicable here.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/theboglehea ... rebalance/
Mel:

Thank you for sharing another one of your outstanding Forbes columns. You have a way of making complicated theories simple to understand.

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Mel Lindauer
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Re: Mel's Forbes column explains "Rebalancing."

Post by Mel Lindauer »

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mel Lindauer wrote:Here's a recent timely Forbes column of mine that may well be applicable here.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/theboglehea ... rebalance/
Mel:

Thank you for sharing another one of your outstanding Forbes columns. You have a way of making complicated theories simple to understand.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Thanks for the kind words, Taylor. As you may have noticed, in my columns I frequently make good use of the forum's wiki, which is an excellent reservoir of solid, helpful information. Kudos to all the Bogleheads who contribute to the wiki and help make it what it is.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Majormajor78 »

singern wrote:
FullYellowJacket wrote:Right in time for 401(k) contribution day!

+1. I was thinking that myself!
I was confused when the drop occured today since today is supposed to be 401K contribution day and the drop is supposed to always come the day after. Then I checked and realized that somebody hit the send button early and the contribution cleared yesterday... :oops:

All is well with the world, I missed it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Browser »

Aaaaaaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!!!

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by More Please »

Excellent article Mel, very clearly written and timely. Thanks for everything you do!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by baw703916 »

Since I posted on this thread many moons ago, I can now just click the "view your posts" button and see whether there has been a Pretty Bad Day recently--whenever there is there's a new post in this thread and it pops up to the top. :wink:
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by House Blend »

Bump.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Scandium »

Browser wrote:Aaaaaaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!!!

Image
That's going to hurt when he hits the bottom..
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by roymeo »

I don't even remember which website I used to use to check 'how the market is doing'...I'm not in it for a day gain/loss, so I don't pay attention to those 'today's results' things, just skip that page in the Espresso app, etc.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tecmage »

baw703916 wrote:Since I posted on this thread many moons ago, I can now just click the "view your posts" button and see whether there has been a Pretty Bad Day recently--whenever there is there's a new post in this thread and it pops up to the top. :wink:
I do like how the search is called egosearch when you click on view your posts.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by baw703916 »

tecmage wrote:
I do like how the search is called egosearch when you click on view your posts.
Ha! I hadn't noticed that. Well played, Alex and LadyGeek! :happy
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House Blend
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by House Blend »

Bump.
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