The Wizard wrote:Regardless, most folks did not buy into the total stock market in huge amounts on August 8th.
The bulk of their equity $$$ was there in July, 2011 as well.
So we're making out OK at this point, but the 26% gain number is just one of those volatility oddities.
It does help validate the principle of throwing additional funds into stocks on RBDs, obviously...
Shows you that Sequence of Returns can be really important.
Seeking Iso-Elasticity. |
Tax Loss Harvesting is an Asset Class. |
A well-planned presentation creates a sense of urgency. If the prospect fails to act now, he will risk a loss of some sort.
Figured it was time to activate this old friend of a thread.
LOL!
It's too much fun; it must be against the IRS rules for non-profits.
Victoria
Inventor of the Bogleheads Secret Handshake |
Winner of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. |
Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
Does anyone know what has happened to Lbill, who is the OP of this thread? He was posting very frequently in April and early May, but nary a single post since then.
A few days ago I sent him a PM, but it is still sitting in my Outbox.
BobK
In finance risk is defined as uncertainty that is consequential (nontrivial). |
The two main methods of dealing with financial risk are the matching of assets to goals & diversifying.
Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year. First time I have been totally out of the market since I started investing in stock mutual funds 40 years ago. At age 70 my wife and I need income. I have been looking at putting the money in VWINX or VWEAX or something similar from Fidelity.
The Wizard wrote:Regardless, most folks did not buy into the total stock market in huge amounts on August 8th.
The bulk of their equity $$$ was there in July, 2011 as well.
So we're making out OK at this point, but the 26% gain number is just one of those volatility oddities.
It does help validate the principle of throwing additional funds into stocks on RBDs, obviously...
Firewood42 wrote:Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.
What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?
yes!!! That is the same what I am thinking reading posts like this every time during regular market correction. I guess this world will never change and this is a GOOD thing for us value long term investors.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Europe, China slowdown, slowing earnings growth, growing debt & deficits, Barron's says money managers are all becoming bearish, an election of immeasurably-epic proportions and the biggest storm in a hundred years (this is what they are yammering on about now.)
Firewood42 wrote:Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.
What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?
yes!!! That is the same what I am thinking reading posts like this every time during regular market correction. I guess this world will never change and this is a GOOD thing for us value long term investors.
I was a long term investor for 40 years. At age 70 I no longer am a long term investor. I got out to use the money for needed income, it was only 10 percent of my portfolio anyway. I was just commenting that even though I was planning to get out, maybe I actually got out at the right time.
Firewood42 wrote:Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.
What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?
yes!!! That is the same what I am thinking reading posts like this every time during regular market correction. I guess this world will never change and this is a GOOD thing for us value long term investors.
I was a long term investor for 40 years. At age 70 I no longer am a long term investor. I got out to use the money for needed income, it was only 10 percent of my portfolio anyway. I was just commenting that even though I was planning to get out, maybe I actually got out at the right time.
Good for you! But it is funny how you starting to correct you previous statement,now we find that you had only 10% of your portfolio in stocks.I personally not criticizing your move to "cash", but statement like yours are contributing to overall panic, sort off like a snow con.. again is a good thing for us value long term investors, we going to come and buy one of your stocks after beaten Like a Red-Headed Step-Children .
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
As a true Boglehead, I do not keep track of this stuff, but does anyone have a list a list of the most notable market moves since, say, 1960 (the last 50 years)?
From one-day disasters, to multi-year bear or bull markets, what does the list look like?
I would like to have this for a presentation to the Detroit Bogleheads chapter in a few weeks.
Firewood42 wrote:Maybe I did something right for a change. I got completely out of the stock market one day before the high this year.
What makes you think that the high won't be on Dec 31st?
yes!!! That is the same what I am thinking reading posts like this every time during regular market correction. I guess this world will never change and this is a GOOD thing for us value long term investors.
I was a long term investor for 40 years. At age 70 I no longer am a long term investor. I got out to use the money for needed income, it was only 10 percent of my portfolio anyway. I was just commenting that even though I was planning to get out, maybe I actually got out at the right time.
Good for you! But it is funny how you starting to correct you previous statement,now we find that you had only 10% of your portfolio in stocks.I personally not criticizing your move to "cash", but statement like yours are contributing to overall panic, sort off like a snow con.. again is a good thing for us value long term investors, we going to come and buy one of your stocks after beaten Like a Red-Headed Step-Children .
Sorry, I didn't mean to ruffle any feathers. If I was a young man I would look at any downturns as an opportunity and invest heavily in stock mutual funds.
Interesting, the biggest drop in that list in 1987 I had just a couple of weeks before invested 25 percent of money I had saved in high interest cd's and invested in stock mutual funds. A couple of days after the crash, I invested the rest. I saw it as an opportunity but I was only 45 years old. I was working hard and saving money. now I am retired and living off my retirement savings and I plan on taking that stock market money and spending it while I am still healthy. Good luck to all.
bobcat2 wrote:Does anyone know what has happened to Lbill, who is the OP of this thread? He was posting very frequently in April and early May, but nary a single post since then.
A few days ago I sent him a PM, but it is still sitting in my Outbox.
BobK
I'd like to repeat BobK's question; it still has not been answered.
Victoria
Inventor of the Bogleheads Secret Handshake |
Winner of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. |
Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
Analysts will instantly explain (after the fact) that investors feel Friday's optimism about a Euro solution was overstated, and that they are being cautious heading into the mid-week 4th of July market closing.
You read it here first.
Keith
I will not be buying your newsletter, good sir.
There is a better newsletter?
I suppose I'll have to stick with my day job.
Or, let me say, that on Wednesday November 7, the market will be up or down because projections are the lame duck congress will / will not do something about renewinng the Bush tax cuts or sequestration, automatic cuts to curtail spending.
(This is kind of easy. Do I really need that day job?)
Ooh, maybe if it continues I'll have a rebalancing opportunity. Good thing I have international stocks (down 1% less than Dow), REITs (down 2% less than Dow), and bonds (Up).
My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. Investors who were spring-loaded to sell based on the election outcome will sell quickly and those who are selling to take capital gains at a lower tax rate will do so fairly soon. That clears the way for stocks to finish the year higher.
Just my guess.
Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
I was hoping for some change, but today is the same as yesterday... next year gonna be the same as this year...
Seeking Iso-Elasticity. |
Tax Loss Harvesting is an Asset Class. |
A well-planned presentation creates a sense of urgency. If the prospect fails to act now, he will risk a loss of some sort.
Rick Ferri wrote:My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. ....
Rick Ferri
It would be pretty bad if the downtrend was permanent, wouldn't it? That would basically mean the end of your livelihood.
Nope. When I started my company on July 1, 1999 the S&P 500 was at 1391. Today it's at 1394 and I'm still in business. That must say something!
Rick Ferri
That is saying something, and I wish you and your business the best! That S&P 500 result may seem flat like west Texas, but I bet the time between 1999 and now is more like the rolling hills of central Texas.
Rick Ferri wrote:My guess is that this downtrend is temporary. ....
Rick Ferri
It would be pretty bad if the downtrend was permanent, wouldn't it? That would basically mean the end of your livelihood.
Nope. When I started my company on July 1, 1999 the S&P 500 was at 1391. Today it's at 1394 and I'm still in business. That must say something!
Rick Ferri
1. We are today in a downtrend?
2. Rick, I bet if anyone had started with your recommendations on day 1, invested $1,000 monthly in a 60/40% stocks/bonds allocation and rebalanced their account by targeting the monthly investment (or rebalanced annually, if necessary), they would have done pretty well. They would have invested $160,000 and their account would be ??
While the index has gone nowhere ...
(My calculations show the return was above 7% before fees and transaction costs. In my opinion, so much for the lost decade!
Bongleur wrote:I was hoping for some change, but today is the same as yesterday... next year gonna be the same as this year...
You got your change. Yesteday you had a buck in VTI, today you got 97.8 cents. That amounts to a simple combination of three quarters, two dimes and two pennies, give or take a few tenths. Now you have some jingle in your pocket.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
Bongleur wrote:I was hoping for some change, but today is the same as yesterday... next year gonna be the same as this year...
You got your change. Yesteday you had a buck in VTI, today you got 97.8 cents. That amounts to a simple combination of three quarters, two dimes and two pennies, give or take a few tenths. Now you have some jingle in your pocket.
Only got change if you sold. Otherwise you still have the same amount of shares.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.
I have seen in my lifetime a lot of 30 year old's that woooo wee don't give a bleep in the homeless shelters in their 50's. I almost ended up there myself. So now at 60 I wooo wee do give a bleep.