Livesoft: Worst day?
Livesoft: Worst day?
Livesoft --
Is today a worst day?
Is today a worst day?
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I was looking at VTI, VEU, VSS. My actual portfolio usually tracks a weighted sum/average of the three ETFs.hsv_climber wrote:Read the livesoft manual 8)
There is no such generic thing as "worst day". "Worst day" applies to a specific ETF. Are you asking about a specific ETF?
I wasn't planning on doing anything today. Just was curious.
PS: I am interested in the manual as well
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http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=780576
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=510976
Not sure if/where there is a 'manual' per se :S
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=510976
Not sure if/where there is a 'manual' per se :S
Last edited by Noobvestor on Tue Nov 16, 2010 2:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
The link you provide just points back to this topic.noobvester wrote:http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 1289939464
- Noobvestor
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Good catch, thanks Fixed it.
I figured 'what the heck' since that's where the cash was going anyway - put in the new funds I hadn't added into my equities yet from my money market (I transfer to the MM first, then distribute to the funds as per my AA). If it keeps going down, ces la vie. I guess I just kinda timed the marked
I figured 'what the heck' since that's where the cash was going anyway - put in the new funds I hadn't added into my equities yet from my money market (I transfer to the MM first, then distribute to the funds as per my AA). If it keeps going down, ces la vie. I guess I just kinda timed the marked
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
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Very close.livesoft wrote:Close, but not yet.
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For completeness, I prefer to reference these 2 threads for "worst day" stuff:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=41939
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=60207
I link them here in case someone is wondering where all this comes from.
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=41939
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=60207
I link them here in case someone is wondering where all this comes from.
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- Noobvestor
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I got lucky and dumped in during the down days (stuff I was going to put in within a week or two regardless). Of course, if tomorrow turns around and keeps spiraling down ...mas wrote:Too bad. Today would have made a good "day after the worst" day.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
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- Taylor Larimore
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Stay-the-course
Hi Diehards:
The 10 Worst Days for the Dow (1950 to March 2009)
10-19-87....-22.6%
10-26-87......-8.0%
10-15-08......-7.9%
12-01-08......-7.7%
10-09-08......-7.3%
10-27-97......-7.2%
09-17-01......-7.1%
09-29-08......-7.0%
10-13-89......-6.9%
01-08-88......-6.9%
(Source: Stock Trader's Almanac)
In January 1950 the Dow was 202. Today the Dow is 11,181 (not counting dividends).
Those who stayed-the-course were well rewarded.
The 10 Worst Days for the Dow (1950 to March 2009)
10-19-87....-22.6%
10-26-87......-8.0%
10-15-08......-7.9%
12-01-08......-7.7%
10-09-08......-7.3%
10-27-97......-7.2%
09-17-01......-7.1%
09-29-08......-7.0%
10-13-89......-6.9%
01-08-88......-6.9%
(Source: Stock Trader's Almanac)
In January 1950 the Dow was 202. Today the Dow is 11,181 (not counting dividends).
Those who stayed-the-course were well rewarded.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: Stay-the-course
But would not those who bought Dow (S&P) - tracking mutual funds on these worst days got rewarded even more?Taylor Larimore wrote: Those who stayed-the-course were well rewarded.
Re: Stay-the-course
I've looked the chart of the DOW for the last century. All those deeps were nothing, even during the Great Depression compare to overall progress in the stock market.Taylor Larimore wrote:Hi Diehards:
The 10 Worst Days for the Dow (1950 to March 2009)
10-19-87....-22.6%
10-26-87......-8.0%
10-15-08......-7.9%
12-01-08......-7.7%
10-09-08......-7.3%
10-27-97......-7.2%
09-17-01......-7.1%
09-29-08......-7.0%
10-13-89......-6.9%
01-08-88......-6.9%
(Source: Stock Trader's Almanac)
In January 1950 the Dow was 202. Today the Dow is 11,181 (not counting dividends).
Those who stayed-the-course were well rewarded.
http://www.dogsofthedow.com/dow1900log.htm
So, stay- the -course, keep you asset allocation according your risk tolerance.
Good day.
Last edited by Ed 2 on Fri Nov 19, 2010 7:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
I seem to recall that Taylor said he was on a ship with no access to a phone. or maybe I am confusing him with someone else.livesoft wrote:Mr Larimore, did you rebalance on 10-19-87? Surely, one's asset allocation was out-of-whack by the end of that day. Stay-the-course means "buy and rebalance" nowadays, doesn't it?
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.
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I was scared.
Hi livesoft:livesoft wrote:Mr Larimore, did you rebalance on 10-19-87? Surely, one's asset allocation was out-of-whack by the end of that day. Stay-the-course means "buy and rebalance" nowadays, doesn't it?
All I remember is that I was scared -- until I remembered stock market history (the Dow plunged -52.7% in 1931) and Mr. Bogle's sage advice:
"Stay-the-course."
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
Re: Stay-the-course
Not necessarily. Being able to invest in stocks on "worst days" implies having assets with lower expected returns at other times. I have yet to see a concrete back-testable definition of a "worst" day including how to shift assets back subsequently. I think that a "worst" day is when livesoft is having a bout of indigestion.hsv_climber wrote:But would not those who bought Dow (S&P) - tracking mutual funds on these worst days got rewarded even more?Taylor Larimore wrote: Those who stayed-the-course were well rewarded.
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Re: Stay-the-course
Are you 100% invested in stocks? Because if not then it implies that you have assets with lower expected returns @ other times.jpsfranks wrote: Not necessarily. Being able to invest in stocks on "worst days" implies having assets with lower expected returns at other times.
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Re: I was scared.
I/wife had been in the equity market for five years in 1987. Our AA at the time was 90/10 (90% equity - 10% bond-cash).Taylor Larimore wrote:Hi livesoft:livesoft wrote:Mr Larimore, did you rebalance on 10-19-87? Surely, one's asset allocation was out-of-whack by the end of that day. Stay-the-course means "buy and rebalance" nowadays, doesn't it?
All I remember is that I was scared -- until I remembered stock market history (the Dow plunged -52.7% in 1931) and Mr. Bogle's sage advice:
"Stay-the-course."
We did nothing on that date, nor many other downturns over the years until we were five years away from our planned retirement; reducing our equity holdings and stocking our respective "cash buckets".
While concerned at the time, I was fortunate to speak to a professor (I was attending night school at the time) who was the same age as me, today :roll: . His advice was simply that high/low tides happen every day, and sometimes (depending on spring/neap tides) greater variations happen. It's just a part of nature.
I'm glad we followed his sage advice.
- Ron
Re: Stay-the-course
I have an asset allocation I am comfortable with. To say that a "worst" day strategy is beneficial you have to show that a more conservative portfolio that occasionally shifts more aggressive on "worst" days performs better than the fixed aggressive portfolio.hsv_climber wrote:Are you 100% invested in stocks? Because if not then it implies that you have assets with lower expected returns @ other times.jpsfranks wrote: Not necessarily. Being able to invest in stocks on "worst days" implies having assets with lower expected returns at other times.
There have been a couple of threads where we danced around concrete ways to apply a "worst" day methodology. So far I would categorize it as "mostly harmless".
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- Noobvestor
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I've been doing some "studies". I am not going to call this a "worst day" strategy anymore because folks get totally confused. Instead, I am going to call this the "really bad day" strategy.
The last 3 really bad days for FSIIX (large cap foreign developed) were
2010-08-11: -4.04%
2010-06-04: -3.56%
2010-06-29: -3.28%
and for EFA the last 4 bad days occurred on
2010-08-11: -4.55%
2010-06-04: -4.28%
2010-06-29: -3.42%
2010-07-16: -3.20%
So we would need a drop of at least 3.3% in VEA or EFA for today to qualify as a "really bad day".
The last 3 really bad days for FSIIX (large cap foreign developed) were
2010-08-11: -4.04%
2010-06-04: -3.56%
2010-06-29: -3.28%
and for EFA the last 4 bad days occurred on
2010-08-11: -4.55%
2010-06-04: -4.28%
2010-06-29: -3.42%
2010-07-16: -3.20%
So we would need a drop of at least 3.3% in VEA or EFA for today to qualify as a "really bad day".
Re: Livesoft: Worst day?
What follows is BAD information. We had "badder days" of at least -3.3% in 2009.livesoft wrote:I've been doing some "studies". I am not going to call this a "worst day" strategy anymore because folks get totally confused. Instead, I am going to call this the "really bad day" strategy.
The last 3 really bad days for FSIIX (large cap foreign developed) were
2010-08-11: -4.04%
2010-06-04: -3.56%
2010-06-29: -3.28%
and for EFA the last 4 bad days occurred on
2010-08-11: -4.55%
2010-06-04: -4.28%
2010-06-29: -3.42%
2010-07-16: -3.20%
So we would need a drop of at least 3.3% in VEA or EFA for today to qualify as a "really bad day".
VDMIX (Foreign Developed)
1/20/2009 -6.72%
3/2/2009 -5.28%
2/17/2009 -5.21%
2/10/2009 -4.51%
3/30/2009 -4.04%
3/5/2009 -3.67%
1/29/2009 -3.62%
1/14/2009 -3.55%
Landy |
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Re: Livesoft: Worst day?
The "badder days" can be used to rebalance the token "in the market, for diversification" stuff.neverknow wrote:There is no law of the universe that requires you to participate in this nonsense (if it doesn't suit you). And it doesn't suit me. Back in 1987 it was forever into the future that retirement was, and now -- not far enough. Laddered CD's (4 tier 2 year ladder is my choice) goes on adding compounded interest, boring year after boring year. (I do have some in the market, for diversification)
Landy |
Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde
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I have written such an app, but it is too good to be true, so I am not distributing it until after I've made another ten million dollars.GammaPoint wrote:Can we get a "Livesoft Really Bad Day" app? I could put it on my Touch.
Is a calander a cross between a calendar and a colander? I guess that's a calendar with holes in it where the reallly bad days would normally be?
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- Noobvestor
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How about a Boglehead app along the lines of the 'Don't Panic' sticker on the front of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - the all app would do is highlight one of three words (maybe stacked like a stoplight?):
Buy
Hold
Rebalance
Buy
Hold
Rebalance
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
- Noobvestor
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Here's the Beta :lol:Morgan wrote:Yes! And a hypnotic track playing in the background repeating those words.noobvester wrote:How about a Boglehead app along the lines of the 'Don't Panic' sticker on the front of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - the all app would do is highlight one of three words (maybe stacked like a stoplight?):
Buy
Hold
Rebalance
I LOL, but some people really do try to sell stuff in the vein of 'the Boglehead experience -- guaranteed to make you a millionaire or your money back'.
Keep the ideas flowing 8)
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
Re: Livesoft: Worst day?
How do apply a RBD calculation to a mutual fund? Just run the numbers for the corresponding ETF?
VTI, VBR, VTWV, SCHH, VXUS, VEA, VWO, VSS, FM, VNQI, VBTLX, VFITX, SCHP, VWITX, IBONDS, EEBONDS, EF(EverBank), UTAH-529
Re: Livesoft: Worst day?
For the Fund you are looking to buy see the corresponding ETF.xram wrote:How do apply a RBD calculation to a mutual fund? Just run the numbers for the corresponding ETF?
1. Has the ETF dropped in value today?
2. Is this drop greater than 2.5%?
3. Is this drop greater than the 4th largest drop in the past 151 trading days (including today)?
-- If ALL of the above are true, then buy the fund.
It is best to check as close to end of day. Have your mutual fund buy order ready to go.
Livesoft -- is this correct?
Re: Livesoft: Worst day?
Yep. Is that what the fuss is all about?