Jeremy Grantham: The 10 Topics That Really Matter

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matjen
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Jeremy Grantham: The 10 Topics That Really Matter

Post by matjen »

King of all blowhard buzzkills Jeremy Grantham* is out with another quarterly report on how we are all doomed. He kindly has lists now:
1. Pressure on gross domestic product growth in the U.S. and the balance of the developed world: count on 1.5% U.S. growth, not the old 3%

2. The age of plentiful, cheap resources is gone forever

3. Oil

4. Climate problems

5. Global food shortages

6. Income inequality

7. Trying to understand deficiencies in democracy and capitalism

8. Deficiencies in the Federal Reserve

9. Investment bubbles in a world that is, this time, interestingly different

10. Limitations of homo sapiens
*I do think GMO is one of the better active mutual fund companies.

http://online.barrons.com/articles/jere ... 1438122157
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.
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JoMoney
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Re: Jeremy Grantham: The 10 Topics That Really Matter

Post by JoMoney »

*I do think GMO is one of the better active mutual fund companies.
Score report for the past decade of $10,000 invested:
John Hussman - Strategic Growth HSGFX $7,218.34
Jeremy Grantham - GMO US Equity Allocation GMUEX $17,864.04
Boglehead Tilters and RIA's - DFA US Small Cap Value DFSVX $19,545.82
... and with the broader diversified styles we have neck and neck
Rob Arnott - RAFI US 1000 PRF $21,386.94
Taylor Larimore - Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx VTSMX $21,352.08
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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SimpleGift
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Re: Jeremy Grantham: The 10 Topics That Really Matter

Post by SimpleGift »

Jeremy Grantham wrote:1. Pressure on gross domestic product growth in the U.S. and the balance of the developed world: count on 1.5% U.S. growth, not the old 3%.
Mr. Grantham may be a permabear, but his comments about global economic growth are right in line with the IMF's most recent World Economic Outlook report. The IMF finds that productivity growth has been declining around the globe (chart below), making it more likely that interest rates will remain lower in many countries for an extended period.
International Monetary Fund wrote:In both advanced and emerging market economies, lower potential growth will make it more difficult to maintain fiscal sustainability. It is also likely to be associated with low equilibrium real interest rates, so that monetary policy in advanced economies may again be confronted with the problem of the zero lower bound if adverse growth shocks materialize.

Growth in potential output in the developed world will be 1.6 per cent a year between 2015 and 2020, the IMF forecasts. This is marginally higher than the rate of expansion in the past seven years, but significantly lower than growth rates before the slump, when potential output expanded at 2.25 per cent a year.

The slowdown for emerging markets is set to be even sharper. Potential output, which continued to expand in the run-up to the crisis, is set to decline from 6.5 per cent a year between 2008 and 2014 to 5.2 per cent in the next five years.
Last edited by SimpleGift on Wed Jul 29, 2015 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
hq38sq43
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Re: Jeremy Grantham: The 10 Topics That Really Matter

Post by hq38sq43 »

Charles Krauthammer, with whom I rarely agree, recently published a little book: Things That Matter. Based on the reviews, I bought a copy, read it, and was very impressed.
Harry at Bradenton
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Re: Jeremy Grantham: The 10 Topics That Really Matter

Post by abuss368 »

How many Bogleheads follow him?
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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